Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201808
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
108 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Next band of showers over s central ND seem a bit more organized
but continue the trend of weakening as they propagate east. Will
keep some low pops across the southern tier counties but would be
somewhat surprised if any given shower measures. Also lowered
temperatures across the south which will continue to see more
clouds than sun.

UPDATE Issued at 923 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Minor sky cover adjustments through the morning otherwise no other
changes to current forecast. Will maintain some low pops along the
ND/SD border region this morning however confidence low that any
returns are reaching the ground with high cloud bases.

UPDATE Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Radar indicated weak returns over parts of eastern MT and southern
ND. Most of the precip was not reaching the ground. Stronger
returns were over northern SD. Some mid level moisture and mid
level convergence was creating the precip. Precip will move across
the southern zones today. Will keep low pops in the far south for
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Upper level trough was over MAN with an upper level jet on
the southern periphery. Upper level trough will move into
Ontario by Mon morning.

Surface front extended from between HCO and ROX to near
Gwinner ND. Front will shift east of the area by mid morning.

Another upper level trough over the Yukon will rotate into the
Northern Plains late Mon and send a back door cold front into the
area on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the mid to late week period... the H5 flow continues to amplify
through the mid to late week period resulting in a building H5 ridge
over the northern plains from Wednesday into Thursday providing
generally fair skies and a drier northerly blayer flow on Wednesday
which turns light from the south on Thursday. Then expect a fairly
aggressive H5 shortwave trof digging into the Northern Plains on
Friday and Saturday. This will establish a deeper southerly flow
aloft throughout the plains states and promote one or two rounds of
strong convection across the area. The GFS remains the wetter model
and produces strong storms transiting the area both Friday and
Saturday. Model consensus has Sunday as a bit of a cleanup day...
with a slightly drier northwest flow over the area as the next H5
shortwave ridge approaches aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Shra today should
remain south of FAR and not to impact cigs or vsby.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...Voelker



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