Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230455
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1155 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

No changes at this update.

UPDATE Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure system over
central SASK. Upper level low will move into central MAN by morning.
Warm advection ahead of system will keep winds up tonight. MAN upper
low will bring northwest flow into the area and set up a convergent
flow pattern for Thu. Radar showing most of the precip has moved out
of the forecast area.

UPDATE Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Tweaked winds and pops for tonight. Radar showing light snow mainly
over the MN side of the Red River and moving to the east at 20-25
knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Pcpn chances main challenge through the short term. Current modest
radar returns in fairly narrow swath ahead of weak wave cresting
upper ridge will continue to propagate from the valley region
eastward early this evening. High resolution model guidance just
starting to grab on to current radar trends and continues to
weaken band through the evening. Once this band passes the
remainder of the night should be pcpn free. Mixing and warm
advection overnight should result in only a minor temperature
drop. Gusty winds should simmer this evening.

As upper ridge shifts east region gets under mid level sw flow for
tomorrow. Flow is split with main energy to our south however
guidance implies approach of northern stream wave from mid day on.
QG forcing weak however band of F-gen forcing should aid in
developing a band of -ra base on thermal profiles. Models still
off on coverage but at this time the favorable area looks to be
across the north. With uncertainty will continue with chance pops
for now. Thickening cloud cover will limit warming however with
continued warm advection temperatures should be able to reach or
exceed 40.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The tail end of Thursday`s precipitation should be gradually exiting
the forecast area Thursday night. As temperatures begin dropping
overnight, there could be a few hours of some mixed precip but
chances should move east quickly enough to avoid any real impacts.
Models still keep a deep upper low propagating across the
southern/central CONUS late in the work week but continue to keep
any precipitation chances associated with it to our south.

As the previously mentioned upper low eventually heads towards the
upper Ohio Valley region, brief upper ridging will build into the
Northern Plains. Saturday should bring a nice start to the weekend
with fairly light southerly winds along with hopefully some
sunshine. By the second half of the weekend, another upper low is
progged to develop on the heels of the one from late in the week. At
this time, models depict the bulk of this system also tracking to
our south. However, a few spits of some light precip isn`t out of
the question as an associated upper trough swings through the area.
Amounts look to be pretty light once again with not much for impacts
expected.

Broad upper ridging will return to the area to start the new work
week before models begin diverging on their solutions for another
potential wave midweek.

Not much change in thermal profiles throughout the period with highs
in the 40s and lows ranging from around, or just below, freezing
across the north while remaining just a bit milder in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR conditions were across the area. Satellite/surface obs indicate
some clearing was occurring in the west. However cigs around 50-60
hundred ft were redeveloping over the southeast ND. Satellite
indicated a lumpy appearance to showers over the southeast zones.
Otherwise cigs outside clearing areas in the the western zones were
generally between 50 and 60 hundred ft. Expect cigs to rise and
shift east overnight. Cigs will lower again Thu morning mainly in
the southern 3/4 of the area with next system affecting the area.
Expect MVFR/IFR conditions Thu afternoon and evening in the south
and east zones.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...JH



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