Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 071856
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1256 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Visibility remains the lowest over the Devils Lake basin/western
fa where where winds remain the strongest. Will likely see vsby
at or blo 1/2 mile in open country continuing until winds slowly
subside late afternoon. Otherwise no significant changes to
ongoing forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 933 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Have been tweaking the winds a bit but otherwise no significant
changes to the fcst package expected this forenoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Sfc low and 500 mb low located just northeast of International
Falls at 09z. This low will continue to track slowly eastward.
Forecast will remain in the windy zone west of the low as mixing
up through 900 mb should continue where winds are 40-45 kt range.
Moisture is still wrapping around the low and mostly into the
northeastern half of the fcst area. Overall though lack of intense
snow in the high wind area is allowing for improving visibilities
to just above blizzard range in most areas and to match up with
WFO BIS will expire blizzard warning at 12z.
However enough wind today with gusts 40 or higher esp in the RRV
and DVL basin combined with areas of light snow wrapping back
around the sfc low to create low enough vsbys warranting a winter
wx advisory thru 00z thu. I did lower superblend and wpc qpf a bit
as with snow ratios in the 25:1 range think liquid content lower.
But still could see an inch or so of snow in the RRV but with wind
blowing will not be able to accurately tell.

For the current non-blizzard warning area...Will also extend
winter wx advisory for far eastern fcst area where this area will
see a bit more actual snow falling with accums 2-3 inches nr
baudette-bemidji today into this evening.

Winds subside tonight though lingering areas of light snow will
continue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Thursday-Friday...Upper level flow will transition to zonal by
the end of the week. Weak cyclonic flow remains on Thursday with
clouds and scattered snow showers remaining possible. Winds will
continue to be breezy, but much weaker and likely only minor
drifting issues will remain. On Friday, temperatures and cloud
cover will be the main challenges. There may be hope for brief
clearing, although confidence not high. Lowered temperatures for
Friday morning where the heavy snow is located into the teens
below zero (lighter winds and potential clearing). If clearing
does materialize, min temps could be even colder (which would also
affect Friday max temps.

Saturday-Sunday...Stronger system in zonal flow will bring a chance
for snow to the region. GEFS and operational models suggest
strongest forcing will track just south of the region. With that
said, at least accumulating snow likely across southeast ND and
central MN.

Monday-Tuesday...Colder temperatures and mostly dry, although light
snow might be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

MVFR/IFR cigs and vsby will continue across the region the
remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Lowest vsby in the
DVL area where winds are the strongest and not likely to improve
until evening. Potential vor VFR conditions tomorrow as drier air
works in and winds/shsn diminish.  Remember 12/7/41.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Voelker


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