Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...AND
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER. AHEAD OF THIS MORE ORGANIZED
FORCING...ANTICIPATE WEAK RADAR RETURNS FROM WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BUT NOT MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND. LATEST HRRR/RAP SEEM
TO CATCH ONTO THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE PRECIP (NORTHERN
VALLEY INTO THE TVF AND BJI AREA). THE NORTHERN VALLEY IS ABOVE
FREEZING...AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE AREA FROM
TVF TO BJI IS CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING...AND WITH A VERY WARM
LAYER ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION THE POTENTIAL FOR FZRA DOES
REMAIN. WILL BE WATCHING SFC TEMPS AND RADAR IMAGERY CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED
FOR A PORTION OF NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

CANADIAN RADARS INDICATES PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. OBS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN ATTM PORTAGE-BRANDON-REGINA.
THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE CRITICAL FOR WHAT PRECIP FALLS. REGARDLESS EXPECTING VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS...TRACE TO 0.01. VERY WARM AIR WILL BE FOUND AT 925
MB AND 850 MB OVER THE RRV AND ERN ND AND ENOUGH MIXING WITH SFC
WIND TO KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE RRV AND ERN ND AT OR JUST ABOVE
32F. THUS PREDOMINATE TYPE OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE -RA. FARTHER
EAST WHERE TEMPS A BIT COOLER AND LAYER ALOFT A TAD LESS WARM SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS PSBL. WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED AND COVERAGE NO
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR ERN FCST AREA. SOMETHING FOR EVE SHIFT
TO WATCH ESP IF MORE PRECIP FALLS IN THE EAST THAN EXPECTED. MOST
MODELS TAKE BEST COVERAGE INTO THE RRV WHERE AIRMASS IS WARMER.

ANY PRECIP WILL EXIT WCNTRL MN FRIDAY MORNING...WITH FRIDAY
ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TAD
COOLER AS WARM AIR ALOFT DROPS SOUTH AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER. DRY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THEN INTO WISCONSIN. 12Z NAM WENT WITH THE
ERN SOLN LIKE PREV GFS/GEM/ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF A TAD FARTHER WEST
HOWEVER. CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH A BIT OF AN ERN SOLN WITH MAIN
PRECIP WINNIPEG TO BAUDETTE TO BEMIDJI EASTWARD. THIS AREA WILL
HAVE SFC AND TEMPS ALOFT COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS NOT
MUCH....1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES. FARTHER WEST OF THE SFC LOW TRACK
OVER THE RRV/ERN ND/WCNTRL MN PRECIP WILL BE LESS AND LIGHTER.
TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST SOME MIX BUT GENERALLY TURNING TO LIGHT
SNOW. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EASTERN FCST AREA SUNDAY AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH A CHC OF POPS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. THE TEMP REGIME REMAINS ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFYING WITH WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 540 THICKNESS LINE
LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 00Z WED. MODEL BLEND MAYBE TO COOL
WITH MAX TEMPS TUE AND WED WITH THE 12Z GEM AND EC PLUS TEENS AT
850MB. FROPA WED PM WITH A RETURN TO MORE WINTERTIME AIRMASS
THURSDAY AS 1036MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE PRECIP WILL
BE THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO THE KTVF AND KBJI AREA. THIS PRECIP
WILL FALL AS LIQUID...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING SO
COULD BE RA OR FZRA. WILL ATTEMPT TO AMEND THESE TAFS IF MORE
CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG



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