Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST MN HAVE LIFTED INTO A STRATOCUMULUS
DECK WHICH IS STILL PRETTY THICK. WITH THE LOWER AMOUNT OF SOLAR
EXPECTED WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS THERE A BIT TOO.
OTHERWISE MORE CUMULUS ALSO FORMED FROM CANDO DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE KPKD AREA...SO HAD TO BUMP UP
CLOUD AMOUNTS THERE TOO. SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE KDIK TO KBIS CORRIDOR AND THESE MAY WELL HOLD TOGETHER
AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU THE LATER AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO
EXPAND THE LOW PCPN CHANCES NORTHWARD A BIT INTO THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY IF THESE CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT PATH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...DRYING CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS FAST BREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM NCNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. FOR NOW...THE RUC SEEMS A BIT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WIT THIS FEATURE...WHILE HRRR AND NAM PREFER A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP THREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A FLAT SURFACE RIDGE STAYS DRAPED FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PROMISING
SOME REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED
FOR ANOTHER DAY BY A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD AND NRN IA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING A BAND OF
MOIST AIR THROUGH EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING AGAINST THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NAM AND WITH WPC CONTINUITY IN KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS BEEN
SOMETHING OF THE WET OUTLIER SOLN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF AK MOVES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE UPPER AIR. HOWEVER WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES THE GFS WAS FAST AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS....INCREASES TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND
DECREASE A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT. NO CHANGE TO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CUMULUS TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NW MN...WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE REGION
DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO
E ND...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER AT KFAR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY ON WED. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






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