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000
FXUS63 KFGF 251542
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF
NORTH DAKOTA SO KEPT LOW POPS GOING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z. WIND CHILLS
HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL
HAVE LIGHT SNOW HANGING AROUND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL
13 TO 14Z. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...AND VALLEY CITY HAS BEEN DOWN TO
2SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE GWINNER HAS FINALLY
SATURATED AND IS GETTING SOME SNOW AT THE SFC. THE BAND MATCHES UP
WITH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THE NAM HAS
THAT AREA STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT SEEMS TO FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH HAVE THE
QPF PEAKING AROUND 10Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER.
TIME HEIGHT PLOTS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE A GOOD OMEGA
BULLSEYE IN THE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RAP PUTS
OUT NEARLY 3 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN SARGENT COUNTY...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS TAKEN OBS SITES TO
SATURATE. CONTINUED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...WE SHOULD AGAIN GET DOWN TO THE -10
TO -20 RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CURRENT HEADLINE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING A DIME A
DOZEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
10 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE LATE WINTER SUN BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS KEEPING US MIXED WILL
ALLOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO INSTEAD
OF THE TEENS BELOW.

SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE ONLY SLGHT CHC FOR -SN BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 500MB SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK THE 500MB SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE -SN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SAT-TUE WITH POST FROPA COLD
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES...WHICH ALL
HAVE VFR CIGS IF ANY AT ALL. CIGS OF 5000-10000 FT WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WE BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT...UP TO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE IN PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD ALLOW
THE WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR