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000
FXUS63 KFGF 121747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SHOWERS LINING UP WELL WITH ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THROUGH THE VALLEY IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND SHOWERS AS
BOUNDARY YET TO CROSS THE REGION BUT CHANCES SEEM PRETTY SLIM.
RAISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN FA BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WERE THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

TWEAKED POPS/WX A BIT TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHERN PRECIP HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE BUT THERE STILL IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL
BRING SOME MORE PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SO KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING. WEB CAMS UP IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF SNOW SO FAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MORE PRECIP APPROACHES SO WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
ONE HAS BEEN BRINGING PRECIP TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT SHOULD IMPACT OUR NORTH LATER TODAY. SATURATION
HAS BEEN RATHER SLOW BUT FINALLY GETTING SOME RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THINK THAT
CHANCES FOR THE SOUTH WILL DECREASE AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...SO CUT POPS A BIT IN THE SOUTH FOR
LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AS THE SASK SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE MANITOBA/ND BORDER.
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW. SREF
SHOWS SOME FZRA POSSIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SEEM THAT FAVORABLE. WILL
KEEP IT JUST A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR NOW. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT
THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER
AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.

A COLD FRONT WILL START TO COME DOWN INTO THE CWA LATE TODAY. WITH
PRECIP AND THE COLD FRONT THE NORTH WILL STAY PRETTY COOL TODAY
WHILE THE SOUTH WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT OF TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40S IN THE
NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH. NORTH WINDS WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO BUMPED UP WINDS SOMEWHAT. TEMPS WILL BE BACK
DOWN BELOW FREEZING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. KEPT TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT...THINK
WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH. DO NOT THINK ANY PRECIP WILL
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WILL
BE THE RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE 30S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP
TEMPS DIP CLOSE TO 10 F IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE THE
WEST WILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY AROUND 20 DEGREES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS HIGHER AMPLITUDE AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO SPLIT FLOW BY WED AND
THEREAFTER. EACH BRANCH OF THE FLOW VARIES IN AMPLITUDE AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AFTER WED. ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING
FASTER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

WILL PREFER THE ECMWF WITH PRECIP FIELD. WILL SPEED UP PRECIP ON TUE
NIGHT. WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE KGFK/KTVF/KBJI AREAS
WHICH SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE AFTER THAT SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED.
CEILING HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS KDVL REPORTED A
LITTLE FOG WHEN THE SHOWERS WENT THROUGH AND KBJI HAS HAD LOWER
CEILINGS ALL MORNING. WILL GENERALLY STICK WITH THE MVFR TYPE
CEILINGS FOR NOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER NORTH OF HALSTAD...ALONG WITH MINNESOTA
AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES DOWNSTREAM OF HALSTAD...CONTINUE TO
RESPOND TO THE SPRING SNOW MELT. MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS
RAPIDLY SHRINKING BUT SNOW CLOGGED DITCHES STILL NEED TO BE
FLUSHED IN NW MINNESOTA AND FRIDAY`S WARM WEATHER HELPED WITH SOME
EROSION BUT A WEEKEND COOL DOWN WILL SLOW THAT A BIT. SOME ICE
PASSED THROUGH CROOKSTON ON FRIDAY...CAUSING A QUICK SPIKE WHICH
HAS NOW SUBSIDED.

GRAFTON IS FLUCTUATING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS STILL EXPECTED
TO RISE ABOVE MODERATE STAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  INCREASES AT
ROSEAU NECESSITATED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORTLIVED WITH DECREASING STAGES OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND FOR WALSH
COUNTY. COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT MANY COUNTY AND
TOWNSHIP ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. SOME TOWNS INCLUDED IN THE WARNING ARE GRAFTON... MINTO...PARK
RIVER... ARDOCH...CONWAY...EDINBURG AND FORDVILLE.

A SNOW DRIFT IS DAMMING THE SNAKE RIVER UPSTREAM OF ALVARADO MN ON
COUNTY ROAD 66 AND HOLDING BACK WATER DESTINED FOR ALVARADO AND THUS
A WARNING FOR MODERATE FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR WHEN THE DAM BREAKS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...DK/LUKES