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000
FXUS63 KFGF 180857
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
357 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Rain chances will continue to be the main challenge into the long
term. Region will remain in cyclonic flow into the first half of
the work week. Rain chances today look to be over the far west
vcnty upper level jet maxima and weak low level convergence zone
and the eastern fa under cold pool. The western area looks to see
the best potential for any T with mu cape around a 1000j/kg and
minor instability although shear is weak and precipitable h2o
values barely an inch. Not much for favorable convective
parameters across the east under the coolest air aloft. Current
satellite imagery indicating quite a bit of cloud cover and with
cooler column temperatures in the 60`s seems reasonable.

Showers should thin this evening as weak wave drops through the
fa. Temperatures will hinge on cloud cover but with cool column
should see lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Next wave drops through Monday/Monday evening with continued
rain/T chances. Temperatures will continue below average. Upper
low/troughing finally begins to shift east relaxing the cyclonic
flow across the region on Tuesday. Will maintain a dry forecast
with temperatures a bit warmer. Potential for another wave passage
Tuesday night however confidence not very high at this point.

Long wave trough over northern Canada will rotate into the Hudson
Bay by the end of the period. Upper level trough over the Gulf of AK
will move into BC/Pacific Northwest. Split flow develops over North
America with the southern stream over the northern states and
northern stream over central Canada.

The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS. The GFS has been
trending slower while the ECMWF was trending faster. Will blend the
models.

Short waves are expected to move through Wed and Fri and an upper
level trough on Sat. However zonal flow will be across the area for
much of the period and confidence in timing of the waves will be low
in the fast flow.

High temperatures were decreased one or two degrees for Wed and Thu,
decreased one to three degrees for Fri, and decreased three or four
degrees for Sat from yesterdays forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Question remains how low will ceilings go early Sunday morning.
Kept with idea as all very short range models do have cigs
lowering into the MVFR range toward 12-14z period with isold IFR
cigs psbl in the BJI area by 15z. Plentiful lower level moisture
upstream in Manitoba will be moving down so it seems reasonable.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JH/Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle