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000
FXUS63 KFGF 131750
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Updated POPs with latest CAM guidance and continue to keep
predominant rain showers with isold thunder. Decreased sky across
northern zones as clearing evident on vis imagery. Showers
beginning to dissipate and like the earlier dissipation of rain
showers overnight tonight, roughly 09Z clearing the area. Will
adjust early Mon morning with 4 PM forecast after assessing latest
trends and newest hi-res guidance. Overall not expecting much
remaining precip over my southeast tomorrow morning.

UPDATE Issued at 957 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Minor adjustments made to POPs this period with some light precip
extending up into the Devils Lake basin. Precip has moved east of
areas that received as much as six inches of rain. No reports of
flooding due to long duration, modest rainfall rates and precip
has moved out of the Forman-Havana areas so no plans for any small
stream flood products based on reports from Sargent county. No
other changes at this point.

UPDATE Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Most of the rain has been down where it was expected, or along and
south of I94 in North Dakota and highway 10 in Minnesota. The
Fargo airport has picked up a little over a half an inch so far.
Still think this area has a good potential to get totals of a half
an inch to over an inch. Echoes have recently sprouted up from
Fosston to Grand Forks to Michigan, so expanded the lower range
pcpn chances further north to account for this. Otherwise,
lightning strikes are pretty few and far between.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Pcpn chances and amounts remain the main forecast challenge for
today into tonight. Water vapor imagery shows some spin over
south central ND, related to the mid level energy that will
continue to move east today into tonight. Meanwhile, there is a
low level jet which is focused more into the southern Red River
Valley and west central MN. This is also forecast to hold together
through the day today, helping to keep the moisture feed going.
Both of these ingredients will keep the better chances for pcpn
across the southern half of the FA, and even more so along and
south of the I94 corridor in ND and highway 10 corridor in MN.

There is some lightning associated with the current activity, but
only for a couple of the segments. In this FA, it is mainly
concentrated with the activity over Ransom/Sargent counties. Have
not had a lot of pcpn reports, but the radar is showing that about
a half an inch to an inch has fallen across portions of Barnes,
Ransom, Sargent and Richland counties. For today into tonight,
roughly the same can be expected across portions of Richland,
Wilkin, Grant, and Otter Tail counties. Less pcpn is expected
north of these counties. Like yesterday, clouds will hold down
temperatures, limiting the instability. No severe weather is
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Monday should be mainly dry as weak 500mb ridging moves in behind
the departing short wave. Models are showing some clouds
lingering, especially across the southern half of the FA.
Therefore, once again temps will be warmer across the north. The
break from pcpn will be short lived, as pcpn associated with the
next system begins to spread into the western FA late Monday
night. However, better pcpn chances will hold off until Tuesday
into Tuesday night. SPC has placed portions of the southern FA in
a marginal risk for severe weather during this time frame, however
that may depend on cloud trends. At this point, models are
forecasting quite a bit of cloud cover, which would limit heating
and instability. Still have time to watch this event.

For Wednesday through Saturday...For the mid to late week
period...a fairly fast H5 jet stream flow along the southern
Canada border will continue to bring a series of weak systems into
the area.

A trof of low pressure will push across Minnesota through the day
on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms ending across
northwest Minnesota by late evening. Expect generally fair skies and
a somewhat drier northerly flow on Thursday. Highs should range in
the mid to upper 70s with lows in the middle to upper 50s. By
Friday...expect a somewhat unstable westerly flow and scattered rain
showers to develop late Friday and Friday night as the next weak
shortwave trof pushes across the Northern Plains.

Saturday and Sunday should be a bit drier and warmer as an H5
shortwave ridge builds in over the area. high should edge
back into the lower 80s for the coming weekend. With lows
ranging from the middle 50s north to near 60 degrees in
southern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

VFR cigs from FAR-BJI with shra mainly east of FAR now but will
impact BJI remainder of aftn. Shra not expected to move into TVF
area...so GFK-TVF vfr for 18Z TAF period. Cu development over west
is impacting DVL with BKN025 however vis imagery looks more FEW-
SCT. Will put tempo group in for MVFR deck this aftn, however
should erode quickly with loss of solar heating. Will monitor for
fog but attm MOS guidance not reducing vsbys tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Gust
AVIATION...Speicher