Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Visible satellite imagery indicates slowly thinning cloud cover over
the Red River Valley and over the Devils Lake Basin. Expect this
general trend to continue this afternoon. Only minor changes
needed early this afternoon, mainly to account for cloud trends.

UPDATE Issued at 941 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The stubborn upper low over southern Lake Michigan should continue
to move slowly southeastward through the day, gradually lessening
its influence on the Northern Plains with ridging building into
the region. No substantial forecast changes are warranted right
now, with the area of low clouds/fog extending from the Devils
Lake Basin southward into the James River Valley expected to
erode, while some erosion of the more expansive cloud shield
extending across much of northwestern Minnesota into the Red River
Valley is expected through the day. Some of the short term
guidance is slower in bringing clearing into northwest Minnesota
this afternoon/evening. As a result, adjustments to sky cover be
needed through the day.

Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Main update was to adjust sky grids early this morning to account
for the cloud deck across the east now sneaking into the southern
Red River Valley. Also added some patchy fog in the extreme
northwest where visibilities have dropped just west of the cloud
deck across the Devils Lake basin.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The main challenge early today will be two separate cloud impacting the far western fringe of the forecast area
and another in the far east. Low level RH profiles suggest the
western deck will move slightly westward and diminish by early
afternoon. The eastern area of clouds is more likely to persist as
an upper low across continues to spin across the Great Lakes.
Generally uniform high temperatures across the region with readings
in the upper 50s/near 60 where the clouds take a bit longer to clear
out across the east while reaching the low 60s elsewhere.

Clouds should slowly clear in the east by evening as the low dips
southward and ridging builds into the Dakotas. Lows should be right
around normal values (low 40s) even with surface high pressure
passing near the international border.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Thursday-Friday...Dry and quiet conditions are expected for the end
of the work week as upper ridging continues across the central
CONUS. Increasingly breezy southeast winds with the surface high
pulling away from the area will contribute to temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday and possibly into the low 70s
for Friday.

Saturday-Tuesday...Dry initially transitioning to a more active
weather pattern. Models are in good agreement with this scenario,
but differ on timing. Upper ridging will transition to southwest
flow aloft as a deep trough approaches from the west. The potential
will exist for an inch or two of rainfall (extending into mid-week),
although ensemble spread is large and confidence with details is
quite low.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Light winds expected through much of the period before becoming
southerly late in the period as high pressure shifts east.
Predominantly MVFR ceilings at the TAF sites should gradually
become VFR this afternoon and evening. Confidence in timing is
lowest across NW MN sites. Assuming skies clear by this evening,
will have to monitor fog potential early Thursday. Confidence is
not high enough yet to mention in TAFs, though.




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