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000
FXUS63 KFGF 300933
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

KDVL REMAINS AT MVFR WITH THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE OTHER SITES HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
STARTING TO MOVE IN...AND HAVE STAYED VFR. THINK THE FAIRLY NARROW
BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST...EVENTUALLY BRINGING KGFK AND KFAR
TO MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES A BIT AFTER. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR FOR A WHILE IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOME MORE MVFR CIGS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 12 KTS AND THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR