Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG







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