Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST


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