Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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248
FXUS63 KFGF 300442
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Lingering shower Fargo area. DVL activity dissipated. One lone
storm has formed in western ND west of Garrison and moving east.
Water vapor shows continued weak 500 mb short waves moving thru so
will leave in a low threat for a shower or storm overnight into a
part of Saturday morning mainly in areas adjacent to WFO BIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Forecast challenge through the short term will be temperatures and
low end pcpn chances.

Similar to yesterday have received reports of weak funnels over
the lakes region of west central Minnesota. With mid level
circulation shifting east conditions will remain favorable for
weak funnels for the next several hours.

Otherwise mid level circulation over central ND will continue to
drift east into tonight. Overall deep layered moisture lacking
with this feature as precipitable h20 values blo an inch over all
but the SW FA with dewpoints in the 50s so unsure how long current
isold shra/tsra will hold together. Current feeling is that pcpn
will dissipate with loss of heating this evening. Towards morning
next upstream wave over central Sask may bring some light showers
back into the west. As the center of surface high pressure shifts
into the western great lakes weak warm advection and return flow
should hold temperatures above last nights fresh readings.

Questions continue tomorrow on rain coverage as above mentioned
wave currently in Sask crosses the fa. deep layered rh remains on
the light side and low level forcing looks limited with lack of
surface boundary interaction. Feel most areas will be dry however
cannot rule out some spotty mainly afternoon convection. With
500-1000 mu cape and sufficient instability will mention T. Return
flow/warm advection will be a little better established so
temperatures should recover closer to average.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Sunday-Monday...Models in agreement indicating a stronger signal for
thunder Sunday night into Monday. There could be a couple rounds of
storms...one Sunday night (low level jet) and another Monday
afternoon (cold fropa). Details such as degree of instability and
cloud cover will affect severe potential...but generally speaking
there is the potential for severe storms at some point. High
temperature on Monday could potentially be in the 90s...but again
dependent on cloud cover.

Tuesday-Friday...Models all indicate a strong upper low will
propagate across Canada during this period...sending a cold front
through the region mid-week. Dry Tuesday...stormy Wednesday
(possibly severe)...then quiet to end the week looks most probable.
Temperatures above normal transitioning back to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

No changes from prev thinking. VFR thru the pd with mix of high
based cu/ac and some cirrus. Southerly wind 5 to 12 kts Saturday.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Riddle



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