Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
404 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Broad upper level trough was over the Northern Plains with short
wave in the flow. Water vapor loop indicated short waves over
western ND, eastern MT, and central SASK.

Precipitable water was around one inch and will decrease to
around half an inch by 12Z Tue. MUCapes were around
250-500 j/kg in western ND and will increase to around 1500 j/kg
in the western zones this afternoon., then slide off to the
southeast this evening.

Another short wave will move southeast out of Canada for Wed and
produce showers mainly over the MN side.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Thursday-Sunday...Models are in decent agreement moving the upper
ridge eastward and out of the area by Friday afternoon, with
increasing precipitation chances by later on Friday. Upper low and
strongest forcing will be well north into Canada, which leads to
some uncertainty regarding timing and location of any forcing
mechanisms across the northern plains of the USA. At any rate,
precipitation chances increase by later Friday and into the weekend,
although details still uncertain. Potential impacts appear to be
very low at this point. Slightly below normal temperatures to
continue through the period with highs in the 70s and lows in the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Ceilings continue to look either mid or high level throughout the
entire TAF period. Main question will be whether or not any pcpn
associated with the next boundary affects any of the TAF sites.
Models continue to depict pretty spotty pcpn with this next
boundary, so for now kept continuity with the 00Z set of TAFs,
only showing VCSH at KDVL and KGFK. Looks like limited instability
again, so although there could be some rumbles of thunder by
afternoon, not confident there will be much. Overall winds look
to remain on the lighter side again. KDVL may see some steadier
northwest winds behind the boundary by afternoon/early evening.




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