Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
944 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Issued at 944 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Clearing has occurred across the entire FA, with the exception of
the Baudette to Park Rapids area. Some light rain is even falling
up around Baudette. Expecting this to remain the case through the
day today, with the Lake of the Woods region keeping the clouds
and light rain potential into the afternoon. Otherwise, northwest
winds will remain gusty again, but not quite as bad as yesterday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Main concern for this period will be min temps tonight, and frost
potential. Models are in good agreement and will use the blend for
main features. The upper low across northern Minnesota will
continue to slowly propagate east today, stalling across the
northern great lakes region tonight. Using 850mb temps as a proxy
for the airmass, and mixing to about this height leads to max
temps in the low 60s across eastern ND and mid 50s into Minnesota.
About 30 knots to mix from 850mb, which likely leads to wind
speeds just below advisory criteria. For tonight...with lighter
winds and clear sky expect decoupling, with min temps dependent
on dew point values. Upstream dew point values are in the mid to
upper 30s, and expect Tuesday morning temps to be near these
values along and west of the valley (which could lead to patchy

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Tuesday-Wednesday...The upper low propagates south into the Ohio
valley as upper ridging builds into the region. Nearly calm winds
Tuesday night should lead to the coldest temperatures this period.
Not sure exactly how cold, but likely a good chance for frosty
conditions in some places. Otherwise, dry weather and slightly
warmer temps into mid-week.

Thursday-Sunday...Upper level ridging  will persist across the
region on Thursday providing another day with plenty of sunshine.
The main ridge axis will begin to move off to the east Thursday
night with breezy southerly flow to returning.

As the ridge slides further east, southwest flow aloft will set up
late in the week. The GFS depicts a few weak waves passing through
producing a little bit of QPF across the western forecast area on
Friday and Saturday. The latest run of the ECMWF also picks up on
some QPF but keeps it further west across western North Dakota.
Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast for now through

Sunday will bring the next best chance for precipitation as an upper
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest with several additional waves
rounding the trough progged to impact the area. However, the
timing/confidence in these chances are yet to be ironed out.

Relatively little change in thermal profiles late in the work week
and into the weekend will keep high temperatures just slightly above
normal (upper 60s to low 70s) with mild lows in the upper 40s and
low 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Winds will be the main aviation concern today with gusts to near
25 knots possible (especially along and west of the valley). Any
cigs today or this evening should remain VFR.




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