Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 081837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1237 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Issued at 1223 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

With clearing occurring across the west and some breaks across
western Mn adjusted cloud cover some. Shsn continue from valley
west so did up pops into mid afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 927 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Current forecast in good shape, no changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Forecast appears on track for today.

Reports from the Blackduck and Baudette areas suggest some
enhanced snow showers with 2-5 inches reported since yesterday
afternoon. These are likely lake enhanced as Lake of the Woods and
the Red Lakes are very warm for this time of year, and the fetch
of wind (especially across Lake of the Woods) is ideal for lake
effect snow. The rates being reported are too light for a winter
weather advisory, but will issue a special weather statement to
raise awareness that these snow showers will continue. Expect
winds to weaken around midnight...with another 1-4 inches
possible. Also raised PoPs and SnowAmts in the grids.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Winds aloft continue to decrease as the entire upper pattern
slowly shifts eastward. The region does remain in weak cyclonic
flow aloft today, and held on to higher snow chances a bit longer
(high PoP/low QPF scenario). Do not see many high weather impacts
today, expect for continued drifting snow issues.

Will need to further investigate the possibility for lake effect
snow off of Lake of the Woods with cold airmass overriding the
warm waters with an ideal wind flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Friday-Saturday...Wind chills and then snow chances the main
concern this period. For wind chills...Min temps will be a
challenge with dependency on cloud cover. With that said, a very
cold airmass will be in place with most guidance suggesting
925mb/850mb temps around -20C. Clouds typically hold on longer
than expected this time of year, and feel most areas will remain
cloudy Friday morning, then clear by Saturday morning as strong
sfc ridging propagates into the region. Risk area for wind chill
advisory will be across the Devils Lake basin Friday morning, and
the a majority of the region Saturday morning. Will hold off on
issuing any wind chill advisories at this time due to uncertainty
with clouds. Regarding Saturday morning: if clouds do clear and
ideal radiational cooling conditions develop, CMC (which
typically performs best in these conditions with fresh snow cover)
indicates -18F to -28F across a majority of the region. Did trend
in this direction, and will continue this trend in later forecasts
if confidence in cloud cover increases.

For snow chances...current water vapor imagery shows a strong
upper jet off the northwest coast. Model guidance indicates large
spread with the track of the strongest forcing, with the NAM
furthest north and the ECMWF/CMC furthest south. Where the
strongest forcing does track, expect a quick shot of heavy snow.
Ensembles indicate highest probabilities for heavy snow south of
this region, with may a couple inches near the ND/SD border.

Sunday-Wednesday...Dominated by colder than normal temperatures.
Not record breaking though. Temperatures and how cold, especially
at night, driven by cloud cover. Highly uncertain about clouds as
500 mb flow is zonal Sunday as a short wave and surface trough
moves though then slowly become more northwest as a 500 mb low
drops south and southeast around Hudson Bay toward mid week.
Models advertise a good deal of cloud cover potential however.
Sunday will have light snow chances, especially in the north, but
for the balance of the period dry and winds dont appear to be a
big factor.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

MVFR cigs sandwiched between areas of VFR across the western and
eastern forecast area. VFR conditions could expand this afternoon
however another shortwave dropping through the broad trough may
bring more lower cigs back in tonight.




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