Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1004 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Issued at 1003 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Main snow band east of the forecast area so pulled pops for the
remainder of the day. No other changes however will monitor degree
of temperature recovery.

UPDATE Issued at 657 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

RADAR and recent obs indicate area of light snow now confined to
the Bemidji to Wadena or far eastern areas and moving quickly to
the east. Forecast on target for the rest of the day.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Challenges for the forecast today and tonight will revolve around
placement and timing of light snow possible this late afternoon
west and moving into the central valley and western MN tonight.
Small dense fog area in the southern valley is expected to improve
as next round of snow moves in over the next couple hours. This
mornings central valley snow is moving into west central MN with
another inch or so possible before mid morning. Max temps today
about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with SFC high expected to
bring light winds and 925mb temps 4 to 6 degrees lower than
yesterday with temps ranging from middle teens north to middle 20s

Next compact wave in the broad 500mb trough expected to bring
light snow into the west by late this afternoon into the
evening. Pwats to increase from a tenth to near a quarter of an
inch so not much moisture to work with but similar to Saturdays
event where up to 4 inches of snow was produced. Low to mid level
frontogenesis appears to set up tonight across the southern
Devils Lake basin and into the central valley however the 500mb
divergence with this next wave appears weaker than the previous 2
waves from Saturday night and this morning. So thinking is that
only an inch or so of snow will be possible. Placement may have to
be adjusted as the system organizes and better consensus develops
in the hires model solutions today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Monday morning will see the departure of a compact area of light
snow in the east and SFC high pressure to the northwest bringing
drier air into the area with north to northeast winds. The SFC
high and developing low pressure in SD will create a low level
area of convergence and a baroclinic zone across the far southern
FA Monday night into Tuesday morning. This convergence combined
with 500mb divergence will set the stage for a band of snow to set
up. If some mid level frontogenesis develops which the NAM
suggests is possible although very transitory in the current
00/06z runs then a narrow band of intense snowfall rates will be
possible tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday...The medium range models are in fairly
good agreement an active start to the period with a shortwave trough
moving into the Red River Valley on Wednesday. Surface low is fairly
weak but tracks from ND into MN. Will continue a broad area of 30-40
POPs moving through and exiting Wednesday night. Thursday will see
another shortwave moving through, but this time from western ND into
southern MN as the flow amplifies and becomes more northwesterly.
Our southwestern counties could be clipped with snow, but most of
the activity will be out of our area and we should be quiet and cool
with high pressure building in. Slightly colder air starts to move
down as the flow amplifies, and Thursday night could see temps in
the north dropping below zero depending on clouds. The cold air will
be short lived however, as heights start to rise on Friday. Kept
some low POPs in the north with the warm air advection and have
highs rising up above seasonal averages.

Saturday and Sunday...The upper ridge starts to come down again as a
shortwave trough moves through southern Canada Saturday. This will
help push a surface trough axis through, but the south winds
becoming westerly will bring more warm air and highs will top out in
the unseasonably warm 30s and 40s. The models start to diverge a bit
by Sunday, as all the deterministic runs bring a shortwave into the
area but the GFS is further south over ND and much more vigorous.
With high uncertainty will keep the blended solution for POPs.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

MVFR CIGS and VSBY from light snow at BJI this morning with VFR
conditions the rest of the period. Clear to scattered skies this
morning to give way to increasing clouds this afternoon and
evening from the west as the next light snow making short wave
approaches and moves across the area overnight.




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