Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The cold front had progressed to a line from southern Lake of the
Woods County to southern Grand Forks County to southern Benson
County. Clouds continue to remain fairly thick behind the front
along with breezy north winds. Temperatures make a quick fall as
well. Grand Forks is currently at 48F while several sites in
Traill County are in the mid 60s. Current timing would bring the
front into the Valley City to Fargo Moorhead corridor around 5 pm
or so. Areas along the Canadian are currently in the low to mid
30s, which is a sign of things to come.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Challenge for the forecast will be placement and timing of north
to south fropa today. Fropa will impact max temps with northerly
wind shift and cloud coverage. Behind the front along the northern
tier of counties in the Devils Lake Basin and northern Red River
valley max temps will struggle into the 40s whereas the southern
half of the forecast area will see upper 50s to mid 60s for
afternoon highs. Wide range in 925mb temps at 21Z with -2C across
the north and 12 to 14 C in the southern half of the FA. PoPs
will increase along and behind fropa as tightening baroclinic zone
and frontogenetical forcing provide increasing lift into the
evening and overnight hours. Rain mixing and possibly changing
over to snow is possible north of highway 200. Some light snow
accumulations by Sunday morning on grassy surfaces appear likely.
Banding of heavier snow rates do appear possible given the strong
baroclinic and frontogenetical forcing overnight. This would lead
to higher Placement of that band will need to be monitored as the
predictability window of narrows today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

By Sunday morning the frontal boundary will have stalled out along
the ND/SD border with PoPs continuing across the central part of
the forecast area for much of the day. A rather cool and raw April
day with temps in the low 40s as 925mb range -2 to 4C with a east
northeast wind. Another round of rain mixing with or changing back
to snow will be possible Sunday night as the boundary begins to
lift to the north as 500mb flow becomes southwesterly. Again
another round of light snow accumulations on grassy surfaces appear

By Monday morning SFC low lifting out of Nebraska into South
Dakota will bring wide spread rain across the entire area with
totals ranging from quarter to three of an inch increasing from
west to east across the FA. Rain will diminish from west to east
with another possible scenario of rain mixing with snow or
changing over to snow as the cooler air wraps back in Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

For the middle to the end of next week, expect mostly dry weather
and temperatures for the to be cooler than normal as a strong jet
streak off of the West Coast digs a broad trough deep into the

Tuesday will be breezy as north winds ramp up behind the nearby
surface low, drifting eastward toward the Great Lakes. At this time,
high temperatures Tuesday look to only reach the 40s. The latest
model runs have come into fairly good agreement for the Red River
Valley, suggesting precipitation chances will likely skirt by to the
south Tuesday and to the east Wednesday as a shortwave aloft passes
through South Dakota into Minnesota. Cool air remains entrenched in
the area through Friday, bringing high temperatures barely into the
50s and lows near the freezing mark for the end of the work week.

Model agreement remains better than normal Wednesday through Friday,
indicating small chances for precipitation Wednesday night through
Friday for areas near ND/SD border and in north central MN. This is
a result of several weather systems brushing by to the south through
the Great Plains. Any precipitation associated with these systems
looks to be light in the forecast area, but the potential remains
for wintry precipitation as overnight temperatures fall to near
freezing values each night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Low clouds have made it into KDVL/KGFK/KTVF, but will take a while
yet to reach KBJI and KFAR. Timing the front shows it into KBJI by
3 pm and KFAR by 5 pm, give or take a little. IFR to MVFR clouds
remain behind the front, and don`t anticipate these clouds to rise
too much during the day hours today. Bigger challenge tonight will
be snow chances. Like mentioned earlier, there is a potential for
a band of snow to fall somewhere along the highway 2 corridor,
mainly in the 3 am to 10 am Sunday time frame. There could be some
areas along this line with very intense snow rates, with
visibilities near zero and very low ceilings. For now have kept
vsbys in the 1 mile range, but they could be much worse. This will
be a convective snow, with the heaviest snow being in a fairly thin
band. This can only be determined once the event starts, so there
will not be much lead time on it. So for now the 1 mile
visibility is heads up, with the timing the best available at the




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