Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
330 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Fog and cloud trends the main issue the next 12 hours. There was
an area of clearing which moved into the Devils Lake area last
evening spread into Cooperstown and clipped Grand Forks and into
Fargo but also have some high clouds above it. Fog in Devils Lake
basin has spread a bit east and southeast thru 08z toward Grand
Forks. But also there is a band of low clouds and no fog north of
GFK so this may move south. So at the present time expanse of
dense fog is still questionable so will do SPS. But monitor. For
the rest of the day...clouds feel will stick around most
areas of some variety...but drying does occur late today into this
evening as warm advection gets going. But also time of year and
warm adv over the cloud layer (if it remains in place) may act to
keep lower clouds in where low clouds dont clear out. Anyhow did
go a bit cloudier today and a bit cooler than prev fcst.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Friday should be a mild day with mid 50s to mid 60s across the
area as mild air is south of the low that will be moving along the
International border. Colder air behind this system will not drop
south til Friday night into Saturday. Precipitation will remain
north of the border.

Upper level features continue to show a more zonal pattern with
precipitation associated with a wave crossing the area in the
middle of the forecast period.

For Sunday...the high pressure retreats eastward with return flow
and increasing thicknesses pointing toward moderating temps...with
highs reaching into the mid 50s. A tightening pressure gradient will
see some gustiness associated with the south to southwest winds.

By Monday and Monday night...a wave crosses the area providing
another chance for measurable precipitation. For now...looking at an
initial round of pcpn associated with a warm frontal boundary...with
wrapping moisture in the wake of a cold front. Thickness values and
850mb temps continue to show rain as the main form of pcpn at this
time. Tuesday the precipitation will move out of the
area and cooler conditions are expected in its wake through the end
of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Cigs and Fog main challenges mainly from the valley west
overnight. Spotty clearing leading to wide range of cigs from the
valley west. Guidance gradually holds or lowers cigs during the
overnight. Most guidance showing the best potential for IFR fog
over the DVL basin. Cigs to slowly lift tomorrow am.




LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.