Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250542
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Most visibilities across areas that are still snowing range from 1
to 4 miles. Several NWS employees returning late this evening from
Bemidji report about 3 inches in the Fosston to Crookston area,
and possibly a little more at Bemidji. Further south, visibilities
continue to improve at Fargo. Will let the remaining counties in
the winter weather advisory continue as they are for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Fast moving system coming thru with its lift focused in the
500-700 mb layer. Little organized frontogenesis in the 850 mb
layer in our area. Water vapor shows vort into SW MN moving
northeast and model prog 700 mb low near Huron which will move ENE
toward Alexandria this evening. Main moisture area is east of the
700 mb low with heaviest snows now moving into central MN. But
north of the 700 mb low radars/obs shows mod/hvy snow moving into
far SE ND and WC MN. this area of snow will continue to lift north
and eventually east thru the evening with lighter intensity
snowfall spreading into the nrn RRV, far NW MN and possibly as far
west as Devils Lake for a brief time. Right now snow totals we
have had going seem reasonable based on all meso models, etc. So
no changes. Snow will end pretty fast overnight, ending 12-14z in
Baudette. West winds and a bit warmer Sunday. Expecting no serious
blowing snow issues behind this system though a bit gusty winds
from the west Sunday may cause some low level drifting/blowing in
some areas...but the areas that will get the heaviest snow will
see a bit lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

No significant weather impacts expected through the work week.
Overall a mild, near average week to end February with a few small
chances for light precipitation. For the first half of the week,
zonal flow aloft and a split jet stream yield dry weather for across
the Northern Plains. With increased sunshine for at least the first
half of the week and temperatures peaking near freezing, will likely
see increased snow melt.

Monday will be quite mild, with highs reaching at or just above
freezing at most locations. A clipper passes eastward through
southern Manitoba Monday, yielding a negligible chance of flurries
along the international border. Behind the clipper, high pressure
settles in through Wednesday, bringing more dry weather with highs
in the upper 20s to mid 30s and lows in the teens. For Wednesday
into Thursday, a Colorado Low traversing the Central Plains and Ohio
Valley wraps enough moisture back into the Northern Plains to yield
small chances for light precipitation in west central MN and
southern Red River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Conditions continue to slowly improve for all TAFs except KBJI.
Will continue the light snow until about 09-10z, and then it
should be about done. Ceilings will be a tough call. There are
more MVFR ceilings back west and southwest of KDVL that may brush
KGFK/KTVF/KBJI into the morning hours. Wind speeds are expected to
increase through the morning, becoming a little gusty by mid to
late morning through the afternoon. This will cause some blowing
and drifting snow in open areas, but not sure yet if it will be
enough to cause vsby restrictions at any of the TAF sites. These
winds should begin to decrease by late afternoon into the early
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for MNZ017-023-024-
     027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Godon


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