Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MN AND WAS
MOVING EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ALSO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WAS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE MIXING RATIOS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST ZONES.  PRECIP OVER THE AREA SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTH AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

ADJUSTED TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE
LEFT TEMPS ELSEWHERE AS IS. TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR FOR
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS. ONE OVER NORTHWEST
WI AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  THE OTHER UPPER LOW
WAS OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ABOUT 5 KNOTS.

RADARS INDICATED PRECIP WAS DECREASING OVER FAR NORTHERN MN AND WAS
THE SAME OR INCREASING OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. WINDS
ADJUSTED UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

DEFORMATION BAND PCPN CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INTO THE EVENING. A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAKENING LIFT AND LESSENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. BY MORNING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT MIST MAY LINGER
WITH POSSIBLY A WET SNOWFLAKE MIXED IN ACROSS THE DVL BSN.
MINIMUMS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOSTLY UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

FOR TUESDAY A DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING IN NW MN AND SLOWING
ERODING FROM THE NE AS THE SHEAR AXIS IS REPLACED WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS UPPER 40S WHERE CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER...WITH LOW 50S IN THE MORE SCATTERED SKY COVERED
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH 500MB NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. PLACEMENT OF THE
CUTOFF WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN MOST PCPN CHANCES AS A STRONG POPS
GRADIENT IS FORECAST WITH DRY SFC AIRMASS ADVECTING FROM COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON ENE WINDS. PATTERN RECOGNITION
WITH THIS TYPICAL SPRINGTIME SET UP LIMITS PCPN TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE PM INTO THURSDAY PM. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS MENTION SOUTH OF I94 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE STRONGEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THIS REGION. ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ENTERING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES...IMPACTS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CIGS HAVE BEEN RISING IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
CIGS IN THE NORTH RANGED FROM 30 TO 70 HUNDRED FT. VFR CIGS EXTENDED
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM RUGBY ND TO SOUTH OF TVF TO N OF BJI.
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE SOUTH OF THE VFR AREA AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF
LINE FROM NEW ROCKFORD ND TO S OF FAR TO N OF SAZ. SOUTH OF THE MVFR
AREA OR OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WAS IFR. EXPECT IFR AREA
TO REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
AFTER SUNRISE AND TO BECOME VFR TUE EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, VFR AREA IN THE NORTH WILL SLOW SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...HOPPES



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