Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The thicker cumulus is now along the Red River Valley into
northwest Minnesota and is pushing east. With more sun behind
these thicker clouds, some instability has formed with some weak
CAPE. However drier air is already pushing in from the west with
the steady northwest winds, with dew points dropping across the
western FA. Therefore think the shower activity may be done west
of the Red River, but will last into the afternoon to the east. As
the afternoon goes on expect more sun from west to east.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

forecast challenges continue to be rain chances and temperatures.

remnants of upper low over Mn will continue to propagate east
today. Deformation zone rain band currently east of the valley
should exit the region by noon. will likely see some redevelopment
this afternoon from far northern valley into nw MN along weak
convergence zone and impulse tracking along international border.
convective parameters marginal but cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms. Clearing will spread into the SW half today as
column dries. More cloud cover over the NE will likely hold high
temperatures in the 60s with warmer reading to the SW with more

Any lingering shra should diminish with loss of heating this
evening. With less cloud cover temperatures may be a few degrees
cooler than recent nights.

Dry conditions should hold for most of the day Monday. Early solar
and warm advection should result in warmest temperatures of the
holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Convection developing over the western Dakotas vcnty surface low
and attached boundaries Monday afternoon will propagate east into
the region Monday night. Best potential looks to be across the
south half region in vcnty of boundary/SD surface low and favored
convective parameters. Cannot rule out a few strong storms.

Tuesday will continue to be active as upper low reaches the region
by evening. With potential for surface low position over the
forecast area and enough instability/cape may set up for another
weak tornadic event??

Shra will continue tuesday night as upper low drifts across the
forecast area.

Wednesday to Saturday night...Models have become consistent
with robust short wave trough moving across the northern plains to
start the extended period. Stacked low pressure system centered over
the valley will bring a cool...damp start to June with clouds and
showers lingering into the afternoon especially in NW MN...highs in
the 60s. Thursday and first half of Friday will be dry as 500mb
ridging and NW flow aloft bring weak high pressure to the
Northern Plains. The next CHC for convection arrives Friday PM
into Saturday as SFC low and upper support track across northern
Manitoba dragging a boundary across the FA.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

MVFR cigs AT BJI will climb into VFR range be mid afternoon and some
clearing across MN side of valley expected overnight tonight.  Will
see some showers approaching DVL near end of 18Z TAF period.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.