Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
FXUS65 KABQ 180534 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Scattered -SHRA and isolated -TSRA have recently developed across the
northeast and east-central plains. This activity should briefly expand
in coverage in the vicinity of KTCC extending toward KCAO early this
morning as it slowly tracks eastward before all but ending between 10Z-
11Z. Outside this area, where localized, brief MVFR/IFR cigs may be
encountered, VFR conditions expected to dominate through period. Only
exception would be areas east of the Pecos River and nearer the
NM/TX line where low clouds toward daybreak may result in additional
MVFR/IFR impacts. Diurnally-driven convection Friday afternoon/evening
SHRA/TSRA will remain mostly isolated in coverage and favor the
south central mountains and portions of the northeast and east
central plains. KJ


.PREV DISCUSSION...719 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017...
Quick update to lower PoPs and remove severe wording for the
remainder of the night. Storms have already moved into Texas or
dissipated, and not expecting much redevelopment. However, the HRRR
continues to show some new development around 06Z across Quay and
Curry counties, so have left the majority of PoPs in this area.
Updates already out.



.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist this
afternoon and into the evening along and east of the Central Mountain
Chain. Some storms in northeastern New Mexico may be strong to severe
this afternoon and evening. On Friday, storm coverage will again be
limited to the Eastern Plains with a few strong storms possible.
Elsewhere on Friday, expect partly cloudy skies with above normal
temperatures. A pattern shift starting on Saturday will bring a
monsoon burst back to New Mexico with wetter conditions expected
through next week.



The next 36 hours will be the last quasi-dry period through the
remainder of the forecast period as the pattern shifts with a
monsoonal burst developing on Saturday.

Currently the area is situated on the west side of the broad west-
east oriented ridge centered over the northeastern Gulf Coast. A
broad trough is in place over most of the northern CONUS with a low
centered over the Great Lakes this afternoon. There is a shortwave
over eastern CO that is moving through the western half of the
trough with a upper jet located over the Southern Plains from CO into
the Upper Mississippi Valley. This places the northeastern portions
of the state in the right-rear jet entrance of the jet with the weak
synoptic support. Dew points are currently into low 60`s into Union
county with a weak dryline apparent in surface observations over
southeastern NM. CAPE values range from about 3000 J/kg (MLCAPE) to
over 4000 J/kg (MUCAPE). So, with all that said, SPC has a there is
a slight risk over severe weather over extreme NE NM and over the
Texas Panhandle. Cells are expected to be the strongest near the
NM/TX border with the main threat tonight being large hail and strong

Friday looks to be fairly dry again over most of the forecast area
with above normal temperatures west of the Central Mountains and
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Eastern Plains in the
afternoon. Dynamics on Friday don`t look as favorable for more than
some isolated strong thunderstorms.

Saturday begins the pattern shift into a monsoonal burst as the ridge
shifts eastward and the trough begins to develop over CA/AZ. This
will place most of the state in a fairly broad southerly flow over
the Land of Enchantment with moisture entering the state from both
the Gulf of Mexico and from the Eastern Pacific. The GFS has PW
values surging up to about 1.5" over SE NM and just over an inch here
in the ABQ Metro Area by Monday. This pattern will generally hold
through the week, helping to fire off showers and thunderstorms over
most of the forecast area through the remainder of next week.




A trough is digging southward along the CA coast and will remain
within this proximity for the next few days. Farther east, high
pressure has been anchored over the Gulf Coast, but this will reach
farther west into NM over the next couple of days. Dry air, by mid
August standards, remains in place over western and central NM with
better boundary layer moisture having seeped into the far eastern
plains. This is fueling the development of isolated to scattered
storms this afternoon, and as updrafts become more organized a few
strong to severe storms will be possible. Humidity values are lowest
in the western to central zones where readings have dipped to 15 to
25 percent while Haines indices have climbed to a value of 5 in much
of this area. Storms will largely diminish this evening with perhaps
a stray cell or two surviving after midnight in eastern NM. Similar
to last night, humidity recoveries will be fair (40-60 percent) in
western and central zones with excellent recoveries in the far
eastern tier of the plains of NM.

On Friday, higher dewpoints will be concentrated over the east
central to southeastern parts of NM where a dryline will separate
much drier air to the west and north. This will give a sufficient
trigger for isolated to scattered storms again along and east of the
dryline Friday afternoon, but most of this activity would fall just
south of the Albuquerque fire weather forecast area. Otherwise,
light winds will prevail with high pressure established more
directly over NM, and temperature and humidity trends will not
differ much from today.

A western centroid of high pressure aloft will stay atop of NM
Saturday while the trough/low aloft remains off the CA coast.
Surface winds will begin turning more southerly in direction, and
this will slowly, but steadily, steer subtropical moisture into
southern and eventually central to northern parts of the state.
Wetting precipitation chances will slowly start to increase
Saturday, but into Sunday high pressure will weaken over NM. This
will set up a better squeeze play with deeper subtropical moisture
advecting northward into NM, and the monsoonal burst will increase
probabilities for wetting storms Sunday through Tuesday. Haines
indices would lower and humidity would trend upward substantially.
Temperatures will be seasonal on Saturday, but will fall just below
normal Sunday and Monday as precipitation increases.

Storms remain in the forecast for all zones the latter half of next
week, but some uncertainties exist on the exact placement of upper
level features and the details that will follow. Moisture looks
sufficiently available for recycling and daily rounds of storms at
this point.





$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.