Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 272119
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A FEW PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES...WITH THE BEST ONE NEXT MONDAY.
SPRINGTIME WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FINE LATE MARCH DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR AND COOL...BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NM SATURDAY THEN FLATTEN SOME SUNDAY.
A GREAT DAY SATURDAY WITH SUN FILLED SKIES AND WARM HIGHS THAT WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL
GRACE THE AREA...NOTHING DISRUPTIVE. SUNDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE COOLING WILL
BE DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL EASE INTO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW CLOUD PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NM MONDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON OR EVENING
STORMS OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ONTO THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH FURTHER
COOLING ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY.
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEYOND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
OUR WEST INCREASED AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAILED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD COULD SEE A LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING VIRGA SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOOKING SLIM. EXPECT FAIR TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SATURDAY THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY AS
IT CROSSES OVER THE STATE. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND GUSTY
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW RH VALUES AND 5 TO 6 HAINES
READINGS...EXCEPT FOR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. CHANCES OF WETTING SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS OVER THE STATE MONDAY
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON TO EVENING WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
EAST CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

LOOK FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOOK FOR VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. NW WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTY AFTN WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VIRGA SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  34  77  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  26  72  29  71 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  31  73  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  23  76  26  72 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  28  71  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  25  76  27  72 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  30  71  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  40  79  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  25  66  28  65 /   0   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  71  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  38  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  69  29  66 /   5   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................  25  60  28  57 /   5   0   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  23  64  27  60 /   0   0   0  10
TAOS............................  29  71  31  68 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  36  71  38  67 /   5   0   0  10
ESPANOLA........................  39  77  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  39  72  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  36  76  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  77  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  44  79  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  40  80  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  42  79  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  37  81  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  43  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  43  82  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  43  72  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  76  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  31  74  33  73 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  74  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  39  72  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  76  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  42  73  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  33  76  39  64 /   5   0   0  10
RATON...........................  33  79  37  70 /   5   0   0  10
SPRINGER........................  35  77  36  71 /   5   0   0  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  37  76  40  70 /   5   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  44  82  46  69 /   5   0   0   5
ROY.............................  39  78  41  72 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  45  82  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  43  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  42  85  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  43  82  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  42  82  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  43  82  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  43  87  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  43  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  44  74  46  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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