Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 161517 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
817 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Have allowed the winter weather advisory to expire as scheduled
although there will likely be a couple more hours with freezing fog,
and and diminishing potential for patchy freezing drizzle and snow
flurries along the east slopes of the central mt chain and the
northeast and central highlands. Morning sounding at KABQ and a few
PIREPS indicate the moisture is a rather shallow layer so expecting
improvement by midday. Updated ZFP has been transmitted.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...449 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
New GeoColor satellite imagery (www.goo.gl/a8AUKy -- zoom into NM)
shows a broad area of low clouds with MVFR conditions across much of
N central and central NM early this mornings. Localized IFR
conditions in periods of light snow and fog are embedded within the
cloud mass along the E slopes of the central MT chain, with lower end
VFR conditions farther E. SFC winds will back out of the S as the
morning progresses enabling the low-level moisture to evaporate by
mid to late morning. Drier SW flow is expected tonight across the E,
but a weak upper trough crossing SW NM may trigger a few high-based
snow showers over the SW MTs.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light snow, freezing fog, and freezing drizzle will
dissipate over the high plains of eastern New Mexico through late
this morning. Frigid temperatures and a glaze of ice have led to
severe driving conditions on parts of Interstate 25 and other state
highways in northeastern New Mexico. Temperatures today will only
warm into the 20s for much of the eastern plains. Lows tonight will
be very cold again. The weather will trend warmer through Friday
when near record high temperatures are possible across the eastern
plains. The next storm system will approach the Four Corners region
Saturday and increase the chance for light snowfall over the northern
mountains through Sunday. Temperatures will also cool down closer to
normal statewide this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest suite of satellite imagery and obs, including the CIMMS
fog and low stratus probabilities, indicate IFR conditions have
persisted early this morning along the east slopes of the central mt
chain. The HRRR, RAP, NAM, and SPC WRF show light precip tapering off
this morning along the I-25 corridor of northeastern NM. Extremely
hazardous travel is still being reported on nmroads.com and I-25 was
closed in a second location near Las Vegas. Cancelled the Winter Wx
Advisory for areas along the TX state line where clouds have cleared
and lesser impacts are occurring. Very cold temperatures will remain
in place over eastern NM today with wind chill values as low as -10F
over the far northeast this morning.

Gap winds have forced colder air westward to the Cont Dvd today. KABQ
reported a peak wind gust to 46 mph before midnight. Gap winds will
continue tapering off through this morning. Wind chills in the Rio
Grande Valley below canyons will average 5 to 10F this morning.

00Z models are advertising a 570dm H5 low will develop near El Paso
Wednesday as secondary 70kt upper jet shifts south from the central
Rockies. The main focus for any light snow showers will be over the
Gila region and perhaps parts of the Sacramento Mts. Otherwise a
warmer day is expected over the area with temps closer to normal.

The warming trend will peak Thursday and Friday as deep layer flow
aloft becomes more zonal and surface lee troughing deepens over
eastern NM. This will allow for near record high temps by Friday
along the TX state line where low 70s are expected. Winds will also
be notably stronger both days.

The next storm system is on the horizon this weekend over northern
NM. QPF values are not impressive but much colder air advecting into
the region will allow for higher snow ratios than the previous storm
system last week. At this time, the trajectory looks most favorable
for the higher terrain of northwestern NM Saturday then over the
Sangre de Cristos and northeast plains Saturday night. The H5 low
then deepens rapidly to 540dm as it ejects into western KS Sunday,
spreading widespread windy conditions over NM.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cold air will continue to funnel into the area today in the wake of
the gusty cold front which has now reached the western border of NM.
There could be a few lingering snow showers along the east slopes of
the central mountain chain early this morning. Widespread poor
ventilation is expected today through Thursday.

A warming trend will also commence Wednesday through Friday as a
ridge of high pressure crosses aloft. A weak upper level trough will
undercut the ridge and dive southeastward over the southwest half of
New Mexico around mid week.  It could trigger a few light snow
showers over the higher elevations of the West Central Highlands
Wednesday morning, but accumulation is unlikely.

Southwest winds will strengthen on Friday as the flow aloft
strengthens and a stout lee trough develops ahead of our next storm
system. The strongest winds are expected across the east where the
potential exists for critical fire weather conditions to develop as
humidities plummet near and below 15%, temperatures soar around 13
to 22 degrees above normal, and a widespread Haines Index of 5
develops.

A stronger upper level trough will then cross from the west Friday
night through Saturday night with colder temperatures and a wintry
mix of precipitation favoring west slope locations. Some snow
showers may linger across north central and northeast areas through
Sunday as precipitation wraps around the exiting storm system. A few
to several inches of snow accumulation looks possible in the
mountains, with lighter amounts possible across lower elevations of
western and north central NM. Further, the jet stream will cross on
Saturday with stronger winds than Friday, but less of a fire weather
concern due to cooler temperatures and higher humidities. Northwest
winds will also be breezy on Sunday in the wake of the exiting
system, as temperatures bottom out a few to 8 degrees below normal.

Temperatures will begin to rebound and ventilation will plummet in
the wake of the exiting storm system on Monday.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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