Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 292116
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT LEADING TO
A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEVELOPING SH/TS
BETWEEN GUP AND ABQ/AEG BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY/MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND PROVIDE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. USING VCSH TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY AND MAY
NEED TO UPDATE WITH TEMPO SH TO INDICATE THE GUSTY WINDS. SIMILAR
SCENARIO FOR SAF. STRONGER STORMS WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE NE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH LTGN/OUTFLOW WIND
BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
RAINFALL AND THE STRONGER NATURE TO THE STORMS. LVS/TCC AND
EVENTUALLY ROW WILL SEE THESE POSSIBILITIES. RESIDUAL LOWER CIGS
AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT LVS LATE TONIGHT.
TCC/ROW COULD SEE MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION BUT NOT AS
LIKELY. AWW WIND FROM THE EAST SHOULD IMPACT ABQ SHORTLY AFTER 6Z.
THINK THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL ADVANCE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN MODELS
THINK DUE TO TS/SH COLD POOL IMPACT.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  47  84  52  87 /   0   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  37  78  39  80 /  10   5  10  10
CUBA............................  44  77  45  81 /   5  10  10  30
GALLUP..........................  41  81  44  85 /   0   5  10  10
EL MORRO........................  42  78  45  83 /   0  10  20  10
GRANTS..........................  44  78  45  82 /   5  10  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  46  78  47  81 /   0   5  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  52  86  53  86 /   0   5  10  20
CHAMA...........................  36  73  38  75 /  20  10  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  48  74  48  79 /  10  50  20  50
PECOS...........................  47  71  46  78 /  40  50  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  38  72  40  78 /  30  20  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  35  65  37  70 /  60  20  40  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  36  67  38  74 /  50  40  20  50
TAOS............................  39  74  41  78 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  42  68  43  76 /  50  40  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  47  76  48  82 /  10  10  20  10
SANTA FE........................  48  73  48  79 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  49  75  49  82 /  10  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  78  56  83 /  20  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  59  79  58  84 /  10  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  80  54  86 /  10  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  79  55  85 /  10  10  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  55  81  55  87 /  10  10  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  54  78  54  84 /  10  10  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  56  84  56  87 /   5  10  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  50  73  51  81 /  20  20  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  49  74  51  84 /  20  20  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  72  47  80 /  20  30  20  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  45  69  48  79 /  50  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  50  74  49  80 /  20  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  76  52  81 /  10  10  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  48  68  47  75 /  40  50  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  45  68  48  79 /  70  30  20  30
RATON...........................  46  71  46  81 /  70  30  20  20
SPRINGER........................  47  70  47  81 /  60  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  66  46  78 /  50  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  49  70  52  81 /  60  20  10  10
ROY.............................  47  69  50  81 /  40  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  53  73  55  85 /  50  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  53  72  54  85 /  40  20  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  74  56  85 /  60  20  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  54  71  54  80 /  60  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  55  72  55  81 /  60  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  55  73  56  83 /  50  30  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  59  77  59  84 /  50  30  10   5
PICACHO.........................  54  72  54  80 /  50  30  20  20
ELK.............................  50  72  52  77 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11


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