Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
FXUS65 KABQ 070538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1038 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Shortwave trough with limited moisture is moving southward across
northern NM late this evening. Areas of light snow and MVFR ceilings
will continue across the northern mountains and adjacent highlands
overnight with a few hours of IFR ceilings possible. Mountain
obscurations are expected across northern NM overnight into midday
Thursday. VFR cloud decks between 050 and 080 will spread southward
across the eastern plains overnight. Surface high pressure from the
north will build southward across NM Thursday, and clouds will
gradually scatter out in the late afternoon to early evening hours.
Winds Thursday will generally be light aob 10 knots. A few W/WNW wind
gusts between 20 to 25 knots will develop late Thursday afternoon in
northwest NM.



.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017...
Cold air will continue to funnel into northern and central New
Mexico Thursday as an upper level trough brings a few inches of snow
to the northern mountains. A warming trend will commence with dry
weather Friday through the first half of the coming work week due to
a strong ridge of high pressure over the western United States. An
exception will be Monday when a gusty back door cold front will
briefly bring cooler air mainly to eastern areas.


An upper level trough will drop southward over NM tonight and
Thursday with a few inches of snow accumulation in the northern
mountains. There may also be a few showers farther south on
Thursday, but any light accumulation will probably favor southwest
Chaves County. The system will cause temperatures to fall further
Thursday when highs will vary around 6 to 26 degrees below normal.

Another weak disturbance in northerly flow aloft may trigger some
light snow showers along the Colorado border from the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains eastward on Thursday night.

A strong high pressure system over the west coast today is forecast
to strengthen further and shift inland during the latter part of the
week, finally stalling over the Great Basin this weekend. It will
shield the forecast area from weather systems and allow temperatures
to warm, except for brief cooling in the east with a gusty back door
cold front on Friday. Temperatures are expected to rise above normal
pretty much areawide Saturday, and they are forecast to remain above
normal through the first half of the coming work week, even with some
cooling in the east on Monday.



No significant changes advertised on the morning forecast guidance
for the next 7 days. The main highlights are marginal critical fire
weather conditions over northeastern NM Friday and poor ventilation
for most of the area Saturday through Tuesday.

A cold front that shifted southwest into eastern NM today will move
west through gaps in the central mt chain tonight. Meanwhile, a weak
upper level wave moving south from Colorado will deliver sufficient
moisture and lift to develop light snow over the northern mountains
tonight thru Thursday. The greatest snowfall accumulations will be
focused over the Sangre de Cristos however amounts are likely to be
less than 4". Thursday will be the coldest day of the season with
highs 10 to 15F below normal. Ventilation will be fair to good as a
secondary push of stronger northerly flow develops over NM with the
upper level wave.

Friday will feature a strong warming trend with high temperatures
closer to normal for early December. Very dry air in place will
allow minimum humidities to fall to between 20 and 25%. Northerly
flow across the northeast plains with deeper mixing will allow for a
few hours of marginal critical fire weather conditions. Ventilation
will range from poor across the west to excellent across the east.

Northerly flow aloft over NM will weaken as an unseasonably strong
high amplitude ridge drifts eastward Saturday through Tuesday. This
will warm temperatures 5 to 10F above normal with overall light
winds. Minimum humidity values will average 15 to 25% with fair to
good overnight recoveries. Ventilation will range from poor across
central and western NM to fair across the east.






$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.