Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 201216
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
616 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SPOTTY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS GOOD PORTION
OF SE PLAINS WEST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST TIL AT
LEAST 15Z OR 16Z BEFORE SOME RISE OR BREAKS IN CIGS SETS IN.
EXPECT MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE IN EAST NM CIGS ARE A
LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY MVFR WITH SOME SPOTTY IFR
MIXED IN. THIS ALSO TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORN. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN. NEAR SFC WIND FLOW TO
TURN TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY.
BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN E TO SE WIND GUSTS
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z. MAINLY FROM NEAR 00Z AND ABOUT
09Z OR A BIT LATER WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN 28 AND 35 KTS BELOW
CANYONS...INCLUDING ABQ AND SAF WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15
AND 26 KT. SOME SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z...FAVORING HIGHER
TERRAIN AT FIRST...MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN MTS.
SOME ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO SOME MVFR AND
IFR CIGS AGAIN FAIRLY LIKELY LATER TONIGHT ALONG EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS SE AND PERHAPS E CENTRAL PLAINS.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST FAVORED. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. AN OVERALL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HELPS TO DRAW MOISTURE
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MOST AREAS TUESDAY. MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD ON THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY LINGER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP/EXPAND AND HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THUS
EVEN WEAK UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ENVIRON ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE E-SE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MORESO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST 13KM RAPID REFRESH /RAP/ AND HRRR MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISO-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE EC/SE ZONES TODAY.
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM SUPPORTING PREVIOUS POP/WX
TRENDS INCREASING POP FOR SE 1/4 TONIGHT WITH A PREFERRED AXIS
ALONG/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

OUTSIDE THE SC MTNS AND EC/SE PLAINS...A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST TODAY BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT SHOULD CENTER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NM/CO LINE TODAY BEFORE DEFLATING AND SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT- SUNDAY. THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY
AND THEN TRENDS INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CA LATE TODAY- TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST TODAY
WILL BE CATRON COUNTY/UPPER GILA REGION EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE
ZUNI MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING S-SELY FLOW. AN
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND WEST...AS FORCING FOR LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AIDS CONVECTION SUNDAY PM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRENGTHENING E-SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
WESTWARD CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS
DEVELOP SUNDAY PM NW ZONES.

CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. BEST POPS FROM
NE TO SW. TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY THAT WOULD
FAVOR THE NC/NE AREAS BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEFINITE
DRYING TREND NC/NW ZONES. FOR WED AND BEYOND...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
INDICATED INTO THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EAST. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR
REGION... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE MOST LIKELY TO DOMINATE
WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS OF SOME SORTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO FAR EASTERN NM BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW GRADE
POP FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
EAST...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL TO S CALIFORNIA COAST TO BE AN IMPORTANT
DRIVER IN LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OVER OR JUST W OF W NM WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
EAST TWO THIRDS OR THREE QUARTERS OF NM BY LATE AM TO EARLY PM
TODAY. SOME DRYING THANKS TO A MODERATE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE AND ALSO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ELSEWHERE. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. RESIDUAL SFC
MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM E AND NE TODAY TO
MORE OF A SE TO S FLOW SUN TO SUN NIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUN...FAVORING MOST THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AND EAST AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL COOL ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST SPOTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT LESS SO ACROSS FAR E NM...BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE. SOME BREEZY LEVEL
WIND AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE GENERALLY S TO SE FLOW SUN. VENTILATION
RATES LOOK TO BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.

MON TO AGAIN SOME WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST AND TO SOME DEGREE SOUTH...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NW. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.

A DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS OVER THE AREA
STARTING TUE INTO AT LEAST THU...THOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME, THOUGH NOT
DRASTICALLY...TUE AND WED. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
APPROACH FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOME FCST MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS MODEL STILL LOOKS
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF
STILL IS A BIT SLOWER. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL DRIVING DOWN
CONFIDENCE SOME FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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