Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 150843
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
243 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Strong to damaging east winds will persist across portions of
central NM today, to include the Albuquerque Metro area. Winds
will finally begin to subside around midnight tonight. Otherwise,
rain and mountain snow will continue as storm system moves little
over the next several days. The Northern Mountains will continue
to see significant snowfall through Sunday evening. Elsewhere,
snowfall amounts will begin to wane after Saturday morning. Some
lower elevations locations, particularly across eastern NM, could
receive up to one inch of rainfall through early next week. The
storm system will finally move along around mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The 00Z upper air analysis showed the upper low over SoCal, with
warm air advection at 700mb across our area. Forcing associated with
the backdoor cold front, including isentropic upglide, has resulted
in areas of precipitation moving north across central and western NM
overnight despite the upper low being far to the west. Snow levels
are high, generally 6,500 to 7,500ft and will be moving higher today
with continued warming of the lower boundary layer. The Winter
Weather Advisory may need to be cancelled later this morning and
perhaps the warnings for the Northeast/Far Northeast Highlands due
to questionably cold airmass and lack of significant impacts.
The warnings for the mountains should work out well, especially
after a 2nd wave of precipitation associated with a jet maxima
swinging northeast around the upper low circulation into western
portions of our area later this afternoon through tonight. The
backdoor cold front pushed through the central mountain chain as
forecast yesterday evening and we hit gusts to between 55-70mph
across eastern portions of the Albuquerque Metro area between
midnight and 3AM. Strong to potentially damaging winds are forecast
to continue through the day, with the strongest east wind gusts
downwind of Tijeras Pass. No changes are planned to the wind
highlights at this time. Otherwise, today will be relatively cold
with below normal temperatures, especially across the eastern plains
where highs are forecast to be 20-25 degrees below normal.
Precipitation across eastern NM today will saturate the frontal
layer and should lead to areas of fog and or some freezing fog that
will expand overnight into Saturday. This is especially true where
aided by upslope flow across the highlands and along the east slopes
of the central mountain chain. The upper low is forecast to jog east
Saturday to over central AZ and will bring colder air aloft over our
area and result a round of afternoon showers, which may produce
graupel and perhaps some thunder. Cooler conditions will persist
Saturday, with highs forecast to be 15-25 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The upper low will wobble eastward over AZ Saturday night and
precipitation will persist across northern and eastern NM. Snow
levels will be around 7kft, so the northern mountains will receive
more snowfall while the eastern plains will receive some much
needed rainfall. The precipitation in these areas will persist
through Sunday, thanks to some added lift from a weak backdoor
front, before slowly diminishing in coverage and intensity Sunday
night. Between Saturday night and Sunday evening, up to another
foot of snow is possible across the Northern Mountains. Therefore,
there is a good chance the current Winter Storm Warning for this
area will be extended through Sunday evening within the next 12 to
24 hours. Lower elevation locations across eastern NM could see
between a quarter and three- quarters of an inch of rainfall.

After a bit of a break early Monday morning, rain and snow showers
will return on Monday with snow levels between 6500 feet and 7500
feet. Precipitation is now expected to diminish Monday night,
then another round of showers is expected on Tuesday. Snow levels
will slowly rise through Tuesday as the upper level low over AZ
continues to fill. Thus, by Tuesday afternoon, snow levels will be
between 8000 and 8500 feet.

The low is expected to be kicked eastward, finally, on Wednesday,
with yet another round of rain and mountain snow showers.
Additional accumulations Monday through Wednesday will be minimal,
but a few inches across the highest elevations can`t be ruled out.
By Thursday morning, the low will be over the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles and breezy northwest flow will take shape over NM.
While a stray shower can`t be ruled out over northern NM, drier
conditions will begin to take shape.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A mix of VFR to MVFR conditions prevail at area TAF sites with
deterioration and an expansion of mountain obscurations forecast
overnight through Friday morning. Precipitation will continue
overnight, with snow levels fluctuating between 6,500-7000ft. KSAF
and KLVS may be impacted by snow with short-lived IFR conditions
possible. Precipitation will focus across eastern NM for much of
Friday and fall mostly as rain with IFR conditions likely at KLVS
and KTCC. A more significant band of precipitation, which may
include some thunder, will impact western NM late Friday afternoon
through the evening, with potential for LIFR conditions in snow
at KGUP. Otherwise, strong to dangerous east canyon winds will
persist through Friday at KABQ, with gusts occasionally reaching
up to between 50-55kts. An Airport Weather warning for these east
canyon winds is in effect for KABQ and will continue through at
least 00Z Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. The combination of a backdoor cold front a
slowly approaching upper level low will bring high humidity and good
chances for wetting precipitation to the area through early week.
Warming is forecast going into mid week, but the weakening upper low
will be slow to move out and is forecast to produce one last round
of wetting precipitation on Wednesday. A drying/warming trend will
begin toward the end of next week with increasing westerlies and
improved ventilation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  35  50  31 /  60  70  40  20
Dulce...........................  50  31  47  25 /  60  70  70  40
Cuba............................  46  30  44  25 /  40  60  50  50
Gallup..........................  48  28  46  24 /  40  70  30  20
El Morro........................  41  28  41  24 /  50  80  30  30
Grants..........................  39  29  43  23 /  70  70  30  30
Quemado.........................  48  29  44  23 /  70  90  20  10
Magdalena.......................  43  33  44  30 /  70  70  30  30
Datil...........................  43  30  42  24 /  60  90  20  20
Reserve.........................  53  26  50  22 /  80  90  20   5
Glenwood........................  58  35  54  33 /  80  80  20   5
Chama...........................  42  28  42  22 /  70  60  70  60
Los Alamos......................  40  32  43  29 /  50  70  40  60
Pecos...........................  41  28  42  27 /  70  80  60  60
Cerro/Questa....................  41  30  40  27 /  60  30  60  60
Red River.......................  32  25  34  19 /  80  40  80  70
Angel Fire......................  32  23  35  17 /  80  50  70  70
Taos............................  45  26  45  24 /  50  40  40  60
Mora............................  36  26  39  24 /  90  70  60  60
Espanola........................  51  32  51  30 /  40  50  30  50
Santa Fe........................  46  32  45  31 /  50  70  50  60
Santa Fe Airport................  49  31  47  29 /  40  60  40  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  37  50  38 /  40  70  40  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  36  52  35 /  40  70  20  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  35  54  34 /  30  70  20  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  36  52  35 /  30  70  20  50
Belen...........................  52  35  55  32 /  30  70  20  50
Bernalillo......................  50  37  53  36 /  30  60  20  60
Bosque Farms....................  51  34  54  31 /  40  70  20  50
Corrales........................  51  35  53  34 /  30  70  20  50
Los Lunas.......................  51  34  54  31 /  30  70  20  50
Placitas........................  45  36  48  36 /  40  70  40  60
Rio Rancho......................  50  36  52  35 /  30  70  30  50
Socorro.........................  54  38  55  36 /  30  70  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  35  30  39  33 /  60  70  60  60
Tijeras.........................  37  31  41  34 /  60  70  50  60
Edgewood........................  36  31  41  33 /  60  60  50  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  31  44  29 /  50  60  40  60
Clines Corners..................  34  27  38  28 /  80  70  50  70
Mountainair.....................  38  31  44  32 /  50  70  40  60
Gran Quivira....................  41  30  49  30 /  40  70  40  60
Carrizozo.......................  48  36  55  36 /  30  50  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  36  29  48  31 /  70  50  40  50
Capulin.........................  35  27  39  27 /  90  30  50  40
Raton...........................  37  27  42  27 /  90  30  50  50
Springer........................  38  28  43  28 /  80  30  40  40
Las Vegas.......................  34  27  39  25 /  80  60  60  60
Clayton.........................  41  31  47  33 /  60  30  30  30
Roy.............................  38  30  43  31 /  70  40  40  60
Conchas.........................  41  33  46  35 /  70  40  50  60
Santa Rosa......................  40  33  45  34 /  70  50  40  60
Tucumcari.......................  42  33  47  34 /  70  40  40  40
Clovis..........................  45  37  50  38 /  70  40  50  50
Portales........................  46  36  51  36 /  70  40  50  50
Fort Sumner.....................  43  35  49  36 /  70  40  40  70
Roswell.........................  46  43  55  42 /  80  50  30  70
Picacho.........................  42  36  49  38 /  70  50  20  50
Elk.............................  41  34  51  36 /  60  40  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-204.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ202-206-210-
211-213>215-221-227>229.

High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ207-219.

Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ220-224-225.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ208-212-
216-223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11


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