Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 222343 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
High based showers and storms may impact KROW and KTCC early this
evening with strong and erratic wind gusts. Otherwise, strong winds
behind a backdoor cold front will be the main aviation impact. The
front will push through KTCC and KLVS Friday morning, then progress
south and west through KROW and the Central Mountain Chain toward the
end of the TAF period. There is some potential for MVFR cigs at both
KLVS and KTCC behind the front, but Forecaster confidence too low to
include in TAFs. Strong east canyon/gap winds are forecast to impact
KABQ late Friday afternoon, where an aviation weather warning for
wind gusts between 35-45kts will likely be required.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...248 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another scorcher today with record or near record highs at many
locations expected. Changes are on the way though as a strong back
door cold front races south and west across the eastern plains
tonight, then pouring into the Rio Grande Valley to the Continental
Divide late Friday and Friday night. Cooler temperatures and more
moisture will mean increasing chances for rain Friday into early next
week. A ridge of high pressure will build back over NM later next
week with more sizzling heat and fewer showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another hot day for northern and central NM with highs challenging
records at many locations. Showers and thunderstorms have erupted
over the northern mountains onto the eastern highlands, as well as a
few high based showers over the western high terrain. These will
continue this evening with a few strong storms possible near the TX
border.

A strong back door cold front will plow south through the eastern
plains and west to the east slopes of the central mountain chain
tonight. This will keep convection going through the night on the
eastern plains.

Much cooler and more moist air will follow the front, with highs 10
to 20 degrees cooler across the east Friday, maybe close to 30
degrees lower in the northeast. The west will continue hot, although
highs will generally be a few degrees lower west of the central
mountain chain. The back door front could actually begin spilling
into the Rio Grande Valley by mid to late afternoon Friday, keeping
highs several degrees lower than today. We will issue another heat
advisory for areas west and south of Albuquerque for Friday
afternoon into early evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the east Friday afternoon and continue Friday night.

Strong gap winds will pour into the RGV Friday night and make it to
the Continental Divide early Saturday morning. Increased low level
moisture will make for a more unstable atmosphere for much of the
area Saturday with widespread showers and storms east of the Divide
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Sunday and Monday will be very active with mostly below normal highs
except for the far west. A drying and warming trend will return for
the rest of next week, with dry and hot weather again late next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds toward NM from the south.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After today, the cooling trend begins. Eastern NM will see
temperatures tumble quickly and significantly on Friday, while
temperatures for areas west of the central mountain chain will see
temperatures slowly fall over the next few days.

Showers and thunderstorms are struggling today to become very
robust. Drier, northwest breezes have developed across much of the
northwest. Winds should continue to pick up across zones 101-102,
and a few hours of critical conditions will be possible.
Additionally, widespread Haines values of 6, with localized areas
of SuperHaines across NW NM will remain on tap for the rest of the
aftn/eve. Poor to fair humidity recoveries are expected tonight
across all but the northeast highlands and eastern plains.

On Friday, the upper level high shifts slightly to the southwest as
a broad trough slides across the northern Great Plains. A strong
back door cold front will slide into northeast NM after midnight
tonight and quickly race down the plains Friday morning. By noon,
the front will largely be banked up against the central mountain
chain. Breezy northeasterly winds are expected behind the front.
Upslope flow combined with much richer moisture behind the front
will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the central mountain chain in the afternoon,
particularly over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The front should
push into the Rio Grande Valley late in the afternoon or early
evening, creating gusty canyon winds in both the Santa Fe and ABQ
metro areas. The front will continue to race westward Friday
evening, and should reach the AZ border shortly after midnight.

The cooler airmass will reduce mixing heights across the plains
considerably for Friday, but will remain very high elsewhere.
Ventilation rates will decrease areawide, but will remain in the
excellent category west of the central mountain chain, with poor to
good vent rates expected across the east.

With low level moisture in place, and southeasterly flow persisting
at least across the plains over the weekend, shower and thunderstorm
chance will increase. Storms should generally move toward the
southeast over the weekend. The driest area will continue to be the
Four Corners region, but the abundant moisture across the east could
spell low clouds or fog for the area during the morning hours. Below
normal high temperatures are expected for the Rio Grande Valley
eastward, while temps across the west will remain a few degrees
above normal. Poor ventilation is expected for many areas on
Saturday along and east of the middle Rio Grande Valley. This should
improve on Sunday.

The ECMWF no longer shows another weak back door front on Monday,
and now agrees much better with the GFS. So, instead, moist
southerly flow will persist across the plains, and storms will again
be possible across the high terrain and much of the plains.

Looks like less storm activity is expected for Tuesday and
especially Wednesday as dry, westerly flow returns to, at least, the
northern half of the state. This will mean temperatures will warm
back up to near or above normal readings by mid week.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ501>509-517>521-534-538.

Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ505>509-520.

&&

$$

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