Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 211743 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1143 AM MDT FRI OCT 21 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level dome of high pressure will slide eastward across
NM today. VRF conditions will prevail at all TAF locations during
the next 24 hour TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...248 AM MDT FRI OCT 21 2016...
Upper level ridging will dominate the weather pattern today before
the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend. Temperatures will warm
back above normal and remain there through the weekend despite a
back door cold front on Sunday. Precipitation chances return Monday
afternoon and Monday night. Western and central New Mexico stand
the best chance at receiving measurable rainfall. The disturbance
responsible for the rains will quickly shift eastward early Tuesday
and, thereafter, upper level ridging will build back into New
An upper level ridge will build over the area today and high
temperatures will quickly rebound from yesterdays cooler readings.
All areas are expected to be at or above normal. The ridge will
flatten and shift eastward over the weekend. Temperatures will
continue to climb on Saturday, thanks to a strengthening lee side
trough, but a weak back door cold front will advance into the plains
on Sunday moderating temps just a bit. Nonetheless, all areas will
remain above normal -- and in fact, temps look to remain at or above
normal for at least the next 7 days. Unless something drastically
changes, October 2016 should end up being in the top 10 warmest
Octobers on record for Albuquerque, if not statewide.
Moisture still looks like it will advect northward into Arizona on
Sunday and early Monday. A weak shortwave will shift the moisture
eastward into NM on Monday afternoon and night. PWATs will increase
to between half and three-quarters of an inch, or 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. So, there could be some beneficial rains to
some lucky locales. Best chances look to be across the northwest
quarter of the state, but much of central and western NM have the
potential to see at least light precip.
The shortwave quickly passes over the state and precipitation should
be just a memory by the daytime hours Tuesday. Temps will cool a few
degrees Monday, mainly due to the cloud cover, and a few more
degrees Tuesday behind the wave. Upper level ridging will begin to
build back into NM by Tuesday night, and persist over NM through
Friday. Temperatures will rebound accordingly.
Except for a brief upper level trough passage with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night, high pressure
will dominate the weather pattern over the Southwest US through the
middle of the coming work week. Areas along and northwest of a line
from Gallup to Chama have the best chance of wetting precipitation
Monday and Monday night, but amounts look to stay under a quarter
Temperatures will vary around 5 to 15 degrees above normal, even
allowing for some cooling with clouds and precipitation Monday and a
weak Pacific cold front Monday night into Tuesday. Haines indices
will generally be moderate, except for some 5`s across northeast and
east central areas today through Sunday. Haines values will lower
starting with Monday`s weather system.
Minimum humidities will drop to the low teens across NE areas today
and Saturday, then also into the east central plains Sunday.
Humidity recoveries look should be fair or better. Humidities will
come up with the passing weather system Monday and look to stay
above critical thresholds into next week.
Downslope winds will be gusty across the east central plains today
and Saturday due to a lee trough. However, a weak back door cool
front will sag into the eastern plains late Saturday night into
Sunday (just before the upper level system crosses from the west)
decreasing wind speeds. In the wake of Tuesday`s Pacific front, a
weak back door front is forecast to drop southward into the plains
helping to keep humidities up. Look for widespread poor ventilation
today, except for some improvement with the best downslope flow east
of the Sandia/Manzano and Gallinas Mountains to the Texas border.
Strengthening flow aloft and falling pressure heights will cause
vent rates to trend upward areawide on Saturday. Values may then
plummet again on Monday across the plains and parts of the central
and northwest valleys. The potential exists for another round of
widespread poor ventilation on Wednesday behind the early week cool