Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 310537 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Showers diminishing except in the far NE where a back door cold
front is poised to move S into the state during the night. Doubt
the SHRA reach TCC but there will be a wind shift around 12Z. Low
CIGS will be less widespread tonight with mid and high clouds over
the area. Tuesday will be an active day in terms of SHRA/TSRA. The
main impact will be found across the NE half including impacts to
LVS, TCC and ROW. Using VCTS at this time during the afternoon for
these three sites. Higher based SH/TS will be found across the
west with possible impacts to GUP/SAF/ABQ/AEG. Will carry VCSH at
these sites. FMN least likely to have any SH nearby. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...512 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016...
.UPDATE...
Quick update to include some slight chance PoPs across the along
and south of I-40 west of the central mountain chain. Should be
enough moisture and upper level diffluence to keep a few
showers/tstorms going into the evening.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...344 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A pretty solid outbreak of thunderstorms has occurred this
afternoon, mainly south of Interstate 40 and west of the Pecos.
But, with one exception as of this writing, the greatest storm
intensity has been below that of Sunday. The Socorro and Catron
County activity has been pretty much of the dry type, wetter
farther to the east. As was the case last night, much of this
activity will wane in the post sunset hours, though the far east
could see activity lasting the longest. A cold front will enter
northeastern New Mexico on Tuesday where additional storms are
expected. By Tuesday night the front will spill farther south and
west through much of of New Mexico, bringing gusty winds, cooler
temperatures, and an increase in moisture. This will signify a
cooler, wetter weather pattern for Wednesday and to some degree
Thursday as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A pretty good crop of showers and thunderstorms ongoing as of mid
afternoon today, more so numbers-wise rather than intensity, for
the most part. A not terribly impressive low pressure aloft is
still slowly headed in our general direction and it has managed to
assist some in pulling up some decent low level moisture into the
sw quarter of the state, though the richest moisture still resides
across east central and se NM. And those latter 2 areas still will
likely have the best chance of severe or at least strong storms
into the eve. Dry line will likely again push west a fair degree
across the east half of the state later tonight. Tuesday, the
next back door cold front should back into northeastern NM.
Moisture advection and surface convergence will help ignite storms
near and at least a little ways behind the boundary Tue aftn with
potential for more strong and perhaps a few severe storms. The
dry and warm pattern repeats in west NM with another threat of
dry storms/virga.

The front will bring a shift to a significantly cooler, wetter
pattern starting Tue night into Wed, especially so across the east
half. Tue night gusty winds will likely accompany the front as it
slides down the eastern plains and advances west beyond the
central mountain chain of NM. This will produce a canyon wind
event, but speeds still do not look terribly strong, perhaps a mid
to high end moderate event. Higher dewpoints will spread across
the state behind the front, triggering showers and storms
Wed and Thu with enough moisture leftover for recycling on
Fri. Upslope areas just east from central mtn chain should
experience the most widespread, if not heaviest, rainfall.

By the upcoming weekend, a high amplitude high pressure ridge
aloft will set up over the western U.S. with any storms likely
relying on diurnal heating and localized upslope. After the cooler
stint in the middle of the work week, daytime temps should
rebound this weekend, getting back closer to average for early
June. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Little change in the overall weather forecast. Tuesday to Tuesday
night will be the transition period as a back door cold front sweeps
across the forecast area. This will influx moisture and cool
temperatures midweek with residual impacts through late week into
the weekend. Drier showers and thunderstorms will be prolific across
the west during a portion of this period. Models remain bullish with
a building ridge over the intermountain west late week into the
weekend. This means an overall warming and drying trend. If the
models continue this tune...then another back door cold front would
impact the area...potentially during the weekend or early the
following week.

Humidity values ended up being a little higher across southwest
portions of the forecast area this afternoon due to an influx of
moisture from the south and east. This has led to a few more drier
showers and thunderstorms. The surface dryline will continue to mix
to the east and a broken band of wetting showers and thunderstorms
will be found along this retreating dryline through early to mid
evening. Weather models continue to paint additional thunderstorms
across SC and SE areas during the overnight but mainly south of our
fire weather forecast area. RH recoveries will be higher across
western areas compared to last night but continue to look for
pockets of poor recoveries along the midslopes.

A squeeze play is still expected Tuesday as the Pacific cut off low
slides a little closer to the area. At the same time...a back door
cold front will plunge southward into the eastern plains. A
moderating mid level dry intrusion will be found in between. The
added lift dynamics from the upper low will help destabilize the
atmosphere and lead to additional drier showers and thunderstorms
across western portions of the forecast area. A band of wet showers
and thunderstorms will develop along the cold frontal push and
impact areas along and to the east of the central mountains. The NE
half has the best potential for wetting moisture Tues into Tues
night. Gusty outflow winds will be a big concern across the west.
Storm motion for the storms will tend to be erratic and slow for
most areas on Tuesday.

The cold front will push westward Tuesday night and lead to much
higher humidity recovery areawide. Higher RH will be felt even along
the AZ border.

Residual portions of the cold frontal boundary will act as a
focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms across the west and
south Wednesday into Wednesday night. Drier storms will be found
between the continental divide to AZ state line with a mix of wet
and dry activity between the divide to the Rio Grande Valley. As the
ridge builds across the west...northerly steering flows should take
over late Wednesday.

The main weather theme Thursday into the weekend appears to be a
building ridge over the inter mountain west. Residual moisture found
trapped within the periphery of this ridge would turn into showers
and thunderstorms. The storms would turn drier with less of a
footprint of wetting rain from west to east. Gusty outflow wind
would remain a concern. Weak northerly wind shifts would be possible
across the east and a more vigorous back door cold front will be
possible during this period. The models seem to be consistent with
their depiction of the Pacific low/upper ridge interplay although
still suspect the low could undercut the ridge a little differently
than what they are showing now. Will continue to monitor that.
Either way...temperatures would warm while RH values lower. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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