Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 041744
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS WITH LIGHT
WINDS THE RULE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK. AS THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM UP FROM THE
SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
STATES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR AVERAGE TODAY FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY...ALLOWING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS ARE NOT VERY EXCITED
ABOUT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAVORED AREA FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AND WITH PWATS AND SW WINDS ALOFT INCREASING...SUSPECT FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL TREND A BIT WETTER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

RIDGE CONTINUES EWD FRIDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ALL BUT FAR
ERN NM DRY. KEPT THE FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENT ECMWF. SW WINDS INCREASE MARKEDLY AREAWIDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO FAR NW AZ...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT SLIDES EWD THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM SATURDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS KEEP SATURDAY
MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER TO MUCH COOLER. GFS KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW
CENTER OVER COLORADO SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT FARTHER
NORTH INTO WYOMING. BOTH MODELS GENERATE SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OR SO OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GFS SHIFTS THE CLOSED LOW EWD SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND KEEPS
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION GOING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IF FARTHER NEWD WITH THE LOW AND IS DRIER. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP ON DAY 5 AND EACH
RESPECTIVE MODEL`S ENSEMBLE MEAN BEING QUITE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES...
HAINES INDICES AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE STATE. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND
OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...THE WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT
WILL BE SMALL AT BEST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY SLOT POSITIONED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FORECAST
TO SHARPEN A DRYLINE WITH DAYTIME MIXING. DRYLINE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY...BUT MAY NOT BE
WETTING GIVEN PALTRY LOW LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HAINES VALUES OF 6.  THE DRY LINE WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO TEXAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HAINES VALUES WILL BE 6S
AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FORECAST BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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