Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 281154 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Gusty east canyon winds associated with a back door cold front will
continue below gaps in the central and south central mountains
through mid morning. Improved moisture with the front will enable
ISOLD dry and gusty virga showers and thunderstorms to form over the
mountains this afternoon. Mesoscale models indicate some of these
storms will drift over the lower elevations of central NM during the
evening. Storms that continue past sunset should be able to produce
a bit more rain, but they will still feature erratic wind gusts
associated with dry or hybrid wet/dry microbursts. Most of the
convection should be done by midnight tonight.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front that moved across eastern NM overnight brought a modest
increase in low level moisture. Temperatures as a result today will
be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Saturday. The coverage of showers and
storms will increase slightly along the central mountain chain with
mainly gusty outflow winds and little rainfall. A bit more moisture
by Monday will increase chances for measurable rainfall, especially
around the high terrain. A low pressure system developing west of NM
Tuesday will draw deeper moisture northward into the state with the
potential for widespread showers and storms through Thursday. High
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal in this pattern.
Extended computer models are in considerable disagreement on the
weather pattern beyond Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A convectively aided back door cold front surged southward across
the eastern plains overnight. Winds peaked up to 45mph along the
boundary for an hour or so. 08Z surface dewpoints have trended up
into the low to mid 40s behind the front across eastern NM. Gap
winds have also developed in the RGV and dewpoints are rising into
the upper 30s. Model QPF remains on the dry side today with mainly
dry and gusty showers and storms around the central mt chain. This
activity is shown to consolidate over the middle RGV this evening.

00Z models continue to indicate 700-500mb layer winds becoming S/SW
Monday and increasing to near 15kt as an upper trough develops along
the west coast. This will help increase the coverage of showers and
storms with wetting rainfall around central NM. The 00Z NAM and GFS
show several storm clusters over eastern NM Monday evening with QPF
values greater than 0.50". Layer moisture continues to increase into
Tuesday with wetting rainfall coverage west to the Cont Dvd. The
upper level trough west of NM begins to provide better support for
more widespread QPF Tuesday night through Wednesday night along and
east of the Cont Dvd. The latest GEFS QPF plumes also show the
greatest accumulations during this period at ABQ.

Uncertainty increases over western NM Thursday then all areas into
Friday. Models diverge considerably on how the upper trough weakens
on its eastward progression across NM into Friday. At this time the
best chance for showers and storms is expected to shift into eastern
NM by Friday. The 00Z GFS drives a strong back door cold front into
eastern NM Saturday while an upper ridge takes shape over the state
thru Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF shows the upper ridge as well but no
front. Nonetheless, moisture looks to remain in place for at least
eastern NM through next weekend.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of a back door cold front that barreled through the
forecast area overnight, temperatures will be cooler most places
today and humidities higher. The front is progged to push all the
way to the AZ border by this evening. The increased moisture will
enable isolated, dry and gusty thunderstorms to develop over the
mountains this afternoon. Some of this activity should drift over
the central valley during the evening, when small wetting footprints
may be able to develop. Haines Indices will fall with the cooler and
moister air over central and eastern areas today, but they will
probably reach 6 again along the AZ border and also from the
northern mountains westward.

Haines will continue to moderate areawide through the middle of the
coming work week as an upper level high pressure system over the
western US is undercut by an upper level trough deepening off the
west coast of the Baja Peninsula. This will draw a gradually richer
return flow of low level moisture over New Mexico from the south and
southeast. Monday will probably feature a mix of wet and dry showers
and thunderstorms as moisture and convective coverage continue to
increase. Then, daily rounds of mainly scattered, wetter variety
showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening
Tuesday through Thursday. PWAT values will reach around 0.75 to 1.0
inch across the southeastern two thirds of the forecast Tuesday
night through Wednesday night or Thursday, when areas of numerous
showers and storms will be possible. Through mid week locations
along and east of the central mountain chain should commonly
accumulate rain amounts around a half inch to locally over three
quarters of an inch. Central areas should generally receive amounts
around a quarter inch, with lighter amounts west of the continental
divide. The Four Corners is forecast to be the one dry area.

GFS and ECMWF generally agree that the upper level trough will shift
inland over the Desert Southwest during the latter half of the week,
possibly as a closed upper level low pressure system. Lack of strong
forcing and model differences during this period are weakening
forecast confidence, but it appears drier air will begin to filter
into the state from the west late Thursday with PWATs possibly
falling to between 0.40-0.75 of an inch by Friday afternoon. This
will cause convective coverage to trend downward and reintroduce a
gusty mix of wet and dry showers and storms, with the driest activity
central and west.

A back door cold front will arrive Friday night with enhanced
moisture and a chance for showers and thunderstorms at least along
and east of the central mountain chain through next weekend.  With
the drier air Haines indices will probably trend upward toward the
end of the work week.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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