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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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000 FXUS65 KABQ 042149 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 249 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH AND WEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SWEEPING TOWARD NEW MEXICO...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FESTOONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH SOUTHBOUND INCURSIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. SNOW STARTED SO FAR AT FARMINGTON AND GALLUP...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW ON TAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE PEGGED WELL ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA NEAR RUIDOSO...CLINES CORNERS...AND LAS VEGAS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 40S MPH COMMON AND WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN A STRONGLY FORCED PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION EMERGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD NEXT WEEK. TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DIG TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING EASTWARD SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING FROM ARCTIC CANADA WESTWARD TOT HE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A QUICK TRAILING WAVE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM FORM CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS NOW PAINTING A DEEPER SHORTWAVE LATE TUESDAY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...AND DIFFER ON SPEED OF MOVING THIS FEATURE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. ECMWF HAS THIS ONE OUTTA HERE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT WINTRY WAVE AMPLIFIES FROM ARCTIC CANADA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...AND DIGS THIS INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SONORA IN NORTHERN MEXICO. GFS SOLUTION LACKS THIS DEEP DRAMA...SHEARING PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVES EASTWARD AND KEEPING THEM CLEAR OF NEW MEXICO...WHICH SITS IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF CLOSED LOW IS A NEW FEATURE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...THUS WILL SEE IF THIS REAPPEARS IN FUTURE RUNS WITH BETTER CONTINUITY. OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTHWARD WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHBOUND PROGRESS TO INTERSTATE 40 IN THE WEST. EASTERN WINDS WILL BACK OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND WESTWARD PUSH OF THE COLD WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE EASTERN SNOW EVENT TO COME. SNOW COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH SNOW REACHING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SANGRE DE CRISTO SUMMITS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN SUMMITS...WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. PORTIONS OF CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY HAVE SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN FOR AWHILE AS ICY RAIN CHANGES OVER TO WET SNOW. 20 TO 30 DEGREE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE DROPS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST PLAINS SPOTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOTS OF TEENS AND 20S ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS WILL RATCHET DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT EVENING GUSTS AND DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH...AND OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SET UP SOME OVERNIGHT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN A LITTLE HIGHER THIS ROUND...AND ACCOUNTING FOR ENHANCEMENTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING COVERAGE THIS ROUND TO THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND PLACED MOST REMAINING ZONES UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THURSDAY...AXIS OF TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AS COLD PUSH OVER THE EAST MAKES INTENSE EFFORT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. VIGOROUS UP SLOPE FLOW AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL SHIFT AND INTENSIFY SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE EAST...WITH HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO SUMMITS...AND PILED UP ON THE EAST SLOPES AND SUMMITS OF THE MANZANO AND SANDIA MOUNTAINS...AND ON THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES BORDERING THE SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY IN CATRON COUNTY. FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A THREAT IN THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY OVER CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. 30 TO 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS FROM THOSE LOGGED ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE EAST...WITH CENTRAL POINTS DROPPING 15 TO 25 DEGREES...AND EASTERN SPOTS 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES. CLIMATE COMPARISONS PUT THESE TEMPERATURES 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW EARLY DECEMBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW OVER THE CENTRAL...AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEST. THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE MUCH REDUCED...WITH SOME SOUTHWEST BREEZINESS CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CHUPADERA MESA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FRIDAY...BRISK AND BLUSTERY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS WESTERN TROUGH MAKES FAST PASS ACROSS THE STATE...LEAVING ARCTIC AIR MASS UNTOUCHED AS IT DEPARTS. ONLY MODEST TEMPERATURE RELIEF...MOST OF THIS FOR THE FRIGID EAST...AS SKIES CLEAR AND SNOW ENDS. COLD PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY WILL REDEVELOP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EAST...WITH MODEST ACCUMULATION SHOWING UP MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...WESTBOUND COLD FRONT SLOSHED UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WITH AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES STRENGTHENING OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WORKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD BUT LESS INTENSE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE EAST...WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER IN OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SPOTS. TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW EARLY DECEMBER NORMALS. UPSTREAM...AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TROUGH WILL BLUSTER AND SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES...CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LAST OF THE SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. SOME MODEST TEMPERATURE MODERATION ON TUESDAY...WITH SPOTS REMAINING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MID DECEMBER NORMALS. SHY && .FIRE WEATHER... MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE UPCOMING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NM THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. FOUR DISTINCT DISTURBANCES WITHIN THAT FLOW WILL IMPACT THE STATE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS ONGOING AND WILL EXIT EAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST...CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FLOW WILL BE IN TRANSITION FRIDAY...SETTING UP A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL DIG DEEPER INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE SATURDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS NM FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BEST PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND WIND. THE FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS NW NM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE FINALLY INCREASED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NE WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AREA WIDE. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE STATE WITH THE SECOND DISTURBANCE THURSDAY. AS EACH FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THE FOCUS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL SHIFT TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...DECENT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW VENT RATES TO REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. HOWEVER...VENT RATES WILL PLUMMET AND BECOME POOR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE STATE...THOUGH 25 TO 40 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING UP AND BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW. WARMING WILL BE MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHTER WINDS AND GENERALLY LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CAUSE FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESTRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS THE THIRD DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENT. AS THE THIRD DISTURBANCE EXITS LATE MONDAY...THE FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH THE FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP COLD AIR ENTRENCHED WITH POOR VENT RATES LIKELY TUESDAY. 24/44 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NW NM WILL BE FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST...MAKING IT TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT KGUP AND KFMN THIS EVENING...AND KLVS AND KTCC TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOWFALL EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN DURATION AND HEIGHT OF CEILINGS. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER INTO EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 18 31 9 31 / 30 20 10 0 DULCE........................... 10 25 2 26 / 60 40 20 10 CUBA............................ 15 31 9 30 / 50 40 20 10 GALLUP.......................... 17 32 6 35 / 40 20 10 0 EL MORRO........................ 20 33 6 33 / 40 20 10 0 GRANTS.......................... 20 36 11 39 / 50 20 10 0 QUEMADO......................... 26 37 9 38 / 50 30 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 38 50 20 50 / 50 40 10 0 CHAMA........................... 7 24 -5 25 / 70 50 30 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 21 31 12 30 / 50 40 20 10 PECOS........................... 21 26 8 27 / 60 80 30 10 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 14 25 0 22 / 40 40 30 10 RED RIVER....................... 5 20 1 17 / 50 50 30 10 ANGEL FIRE...................... 6 21 0 20 / 60 50 30 10 TAOS............................ 18 29 4 25 / 40 40 30 10 MORA............................ 18 18 4 25 / 60 70 30 10 ESPANOLA........................ 26 34 15 33 / 40 40 20 5 SANTA FE........................ 24 31 12 32 / 50 50 20 5 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 33 12 34 / 50 50 20 5 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 28 36 19 36 / 50 50 10 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 39 22 39 / 50 50 10 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 41 20 41 / 50 40 5 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 31 40 20 40 / 50 40 10 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 32 42 22 41 / 50 50 5 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 30 39 22 37 / 50 40 10 0 SOCORRO......................... 37 46 25 43 / 20 50 5 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 20 30 11 30 / 60 70 20 5 TIJERAS......................... 27 34 16 35 / 60 70 20 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 29 14 38 / 60 80 20 5 CLINES CORNERS.................. 17 19 10 32 / 80 100 40 5 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 32 35 19 39 / 30 80 20 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 36 45 24 43 / 30 60 20 0 RUIDOSO......................... 35 40 18 39 / 30 70 40 5 CAPULIN......................... 6 14 1 18 / 60 60 30 10 RATON........................... 8 15 3 18 / 50 50 30 10 SPRINGER........................ 10 16 3 18 / 50 60 30 10 LAS VEGAS....................... 14 16 4 21 / 60 90 40 5 CLAYTON......................... 6 10 2 17 / 50 60 40 20 ROY............................. 9 14 5 20 / 60 70 40 10 CONCHAS......................... 15 19 10 28 / 40 70 40 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 20 21 12 32 / 40 70 40 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 17 20 8 28 / 30 60 50 10 CLOVIS.......................... 20 25 13 29 / 20 50 50 10 PORTALES........................ 22 27 16 32 / 10 40 50 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 24 27 16 34 / 20 50 40 10 ROSWELL......................... 43 47 26 39 / 10 40 40 10 PICACHO......................... 41 44 23 40 / 20 50 40 5 ELK............................. 38 42 23 39 / 30 50 40 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-505-506-508-510>515-522-524-525-527-528-531-532-537-539-540. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>516-521>524-528-529. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>509-511-517>519-525>527-530>539. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-523-526-529-533. && $$ SHY
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