Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240155 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
755 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Quick 1st period updated to bring PoPs down a bit given latest
radar imagery and HRRR forecast overnight. Otherwise, forecast on
track. New suite of products out shortly.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

An upper level low pressure system is currently moving south of
the Four Corners region, and it will drift into north central New
Mexico through Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will
favor the northwestern to west central sections of the state this
evening, as well as the east central to southeastern plains. Any
thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy downpours reducing
ceilings/visibilities along with small hail and gusty downburst
winds. Southwestern to central to northeastern sections of the
state will mostly remain VFR this evening and overnight, but a
stray storm is not out of the question. On Wednesday storms will
shift to the central and north central sections of New Mexico.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
An active monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist through the
weekend as a slow moving upper level trough over the western U.S.
gradually shifts eastward. A back door cool front will plunge
southwestward through eastern then central areas Wednesday and
Wednesday night triggering precipitation. Temperatures will trend
upward in the wake of the front this weekend. A ridge of high
pressure is forecast to build over the Desert Southwest early next
week with spottier showers and thunderstorms favoring the central
mountain chain eastward, as well as the southwest mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of short wave disturbances embedded in the broader upper
level trough pattern will provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms before the upper trough finally shifts east of our
state. The first is evident on visible satellite imagery over
west central NM late this afternoon. This feature is forecast to
jog northeastward tonight, then eastward along the CO/NM border on
Wednesday, before exiting. Models are agreeing less well on the
second disturbance, which may drop southward along or just west of
the NM/AZ border Saturday night through Sunday night. This feature
should funnel a fairly robust monsoon moisture plume over
southern, central and eastern parts of the forecast area.

After PWATs around 0.75-1.0 inch through the end of the week,
values will trend downward over western and north central areas early
in the coming work week as the ridge of high pressure builds
mainly west of NM. This should allow temperatures to trend upward
central and west.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active weather pattern through this coming weekend then we should
transition to drier and warmer weather conditions next week.

Today`s crop of showers and thunderstorms will favor the northwest
third of our CWA as well as the east central plains. A dry slot
aloft is between these two areas and should act to reduce coverage
of storms. Convection will continue through this evening then
dissipate after midnight.

The upper low over northern AZ will continue to drift east and cross
the state tonight into Wednesday night. A back door front will reach
far northeast NM late Wednesday then move south and west Wednesday
night, and probably into the Rio Grande Valley around dawn Thursday.
The upper trough and surface trough will combine to keep plenty of
showers and storms around Wednesday through Thursday. Wetting rain
footprints will increase and favor central areas and the northeast
half during the two day period. Humidity values will be on the
rise...especially across the eastern two thirds of the area. Vent
rates will lower some each day during this period with areas of poor
ventilation is forecast over parts of the southwest and in the Rio
Grande Valley. Highs will drop sharply in the east over these two
days.

Storm activity will remain high on Friday as another weak short wave
trough passes to our north while existing moisture recycles. Vent
rates will improve while highs remain below normal.

Yet another short wave trough will approach NM Saturday and cross
Sunday into Sunday night. Behind this trough models continue to
advertise drier air. So while Saturday remains active we may begin
to see fewer storms Sunday, mainly over the northwest.

The drying/warming trend shift into high gear early next week as
high pressure aloft builds in from the southwest. The latest run of
the GFS model reverts to its previous runs keeping the high pressure
center to the west and southwest of NM, with the ECMWF agreeing on
this. In fact, the European model has the high center well southwest
of the GFS and generally keeps more moisture over the state through
the first half of next week. Temperatures should get back to near
normal areawide with lowering RH values and smaller footprints of
wetting rain.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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