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000
FXUS65 KABQ 200944
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
344 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH
PRECIPITATION FOCUSING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS...BUT A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IS PUSHED INTO
NEW MEXICO...BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO TURN DRIER AND WINDIER BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ABSENT SINCE THE EARLY EVENING...BUT STRATIFORM
RAINFALL CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING IS
EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND BATCHES OF ONGOING
PRECIPITATION ARE SLOWLY SHRINKING. MAIN CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE
TODAY WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY LAGGING FARTHER SOUTH...BUT
STILL TREKKING EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS READILY
AVAILABLE WITH 40S DEWPOINTS BLANKETING THE RIO GRANDE AND HIGHER
VALUES FOR MOST POINTS EAST. LAST EVENING`S PWAT ROSE TO 0.62
INCH...WHICH IS 205 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND NEARLY 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR MID APRIL. ANTICIPATE SOME DROPS IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT NOT A DRASTIC PLUMMET. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK POPS BASED ON THIS DRYING...BUT SUFFICIENT
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL BE DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE MORE PROLONGED. THEREFORE...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE WEST. THE
FOCUS...HOWEVER...WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT AMIDST
SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE POPS DECREASING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND EVEN MORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AS AN OPEN WAVE AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES STABILIZE. THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A
SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD INVADE ALL OF EASTERN NM BY MID TO LATE
MORNING MONDAY. AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION THEY WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRES. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE STATE. SOME ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT WILL BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. THE BAROCLINICITY OF THE FRONT IN
THE EAST IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH NO SENSIBLE DROP TO
TEMPERATURES THERE MONDAY...JUST SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS.

INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE NOW DEPICTING
QPF...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. WHILE THIS IS A NEW ARTIFACT WITH
DISCONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A FLUX
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL SURGE WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. RISING DEWPOINTS/PWATS AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CELLS POTENTIALLY SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES IN INCREASING STEERING FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE LOOKS TO HAVE NO CHANCE OF HOLDING ON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
DRIER AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES RAMP UP. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY LOOK TO REMAIN DRY WITH ALL PRECIPITATION STAYING WELL
NORTH WHILE THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DAY OF WETTING RAIN TODAY...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES...BEFORE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING NEW MEXICO...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS AND CIRA TPW PRODUCT INDICATES
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO BE 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE FAVORED CENTRAL ZONES...AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WEST. SURFACE
WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. DESPITE A DRAMATIC DECREASE
IN RH ACROSS ALL AREAS BUT THE NORTHEAST...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY GOOD.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY INITIATING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. AS A SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER
COLORADO AND ADJACENT PLAINS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW IN ADDITION TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS AN AREA OF WETTING RAIN FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGHLANDS TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VENTILATION TO BE BEST
ACROSS THE EAST WITH SOME FAIR VALUES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE FAIR WEST AND GOOD
ELSEWHERE.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE. MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF NEW MEXICO AS STRONG WINDS
USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. MODEST WARMING CONTINUES ON
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. A STRONG LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKER VALUES ON THURSDAY. THUS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...FIRST IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES ON TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...RH BELOW 15
PERCENT AND A BROAD REGION OF UNSTABLE AIR AND A HIGH HAINES OF 6.
BY THURSDAY...WINDS AND HAINES LOOK TO DECREASE A BIT BUT SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES WILL BE COMMON...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WIND ON FRIDAY...EXTENDED MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING BUT NOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE NE. OTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
SOCORRO AND NW LINCOLN COUNTIES. TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR A TEMPO
GROUP IN SAF AND VCSH IN LVS. ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN SUNDAY PM FAVORING THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE...WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  75  43  78  46 /  20   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  65  32  66  33 /  30  10  10   5
CUBA............................  68  36  69  37 /  30  10  10   5
GALLUP..........................  71  37  76  41 /  20   5   5   5
EL MORRO........................  65  37  71  35 /  20  10  20   5
GRANTS..........................  69  38  74  39 /  20   5  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  67  40  72  42 /  20  10  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  73  46  80  42 /  10   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  59  30  62  31 /  60  20  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  62  43  65  45 /  40  20  20   5
PECOS...........................  62  43  68  42 /  50  20  30  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  32  68  34 /  60  20  30  10
RED RIVER.......................  50  28  53  27 /  70  40  40  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  56  26  60  26 /  70  40  40  20
TAOS............................  63  36  69  38 /  50  20  20  10
MORA............................  60  38  64  40 /  70  30  50  20
ESPANOLA........................  71  41  75  43 /  30  10  10   5
SANTA FE........................  66  42  71  44 /  40  10  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  69  43  75  45 /  30  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  71  50  77  51 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  73  53  79  54 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  75  47  81  47 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  75  49  81  49 /  20   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  78  48  81  46 /  20   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  75  51  79  52 /  20   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  76  52  81  52 /  20   5   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  68  43  72  44 /  40  10  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  70  46  74  48 /  40   5  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  41  76  39 /  30  10  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  65  43  69  44 /  50  10  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  68  46  72  47 /  30  10  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  46  77  47 /  30   5  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  64  41  68  38 /  50   5  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  59  41  68  42 /  80  30  30  20
RATON...........................  65  40  71  41 /  70  20  40  10
SPRINGER........................  67  42  71  43 /  70  20  30  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  64  41  68  43 /  70  20  60  10
CLAYTON.........................  69  50  74  48 /  50  20  20  10
ROY.............................  65  46  72  46 /  60  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  72  51  76  51 /  50  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  72  49  77  50 /  50  10  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  73  52  79  53 /  40  20  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  72  50  77  48 /  30  10  10   5
PORTALES........................  74  51  77  51 /  30  10  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  74  52  79  53 /  30  10  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  78  54  82  55 /  20  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  73  51  77  51 /  20   5  10   5
ELK.............................  68  47  70  47 /  30   5  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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