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770
FXUS65 KABQ 201744 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1144 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. The front that
moved into eastern NM this morning will continue to wash out today.
Meanwhile, breezy conditions will continue across western and
portions of central NM this afternoon. Gusts near 25kt possible,
locally higher near KGUP. Winds will subside after sunset, except
across the high peaks where winds will persist. Winds will ramp up
area wide again late Thursday morning.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Lighter winds are expected today, and temperatures will be cooler
than Tuesday most places. An upper level trough will deepen over the
western United States during the latter half of the work week, then
stall west of New Mexico into early next week. It will steer better
moisture north and northeastward over the state. Showers and
thunderstorms that start in the west Thursday night will become more
widespread Friday through Saturday, before lingering along and east
of the central mountain chain Sunday and Sunday night. Cooler
temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday and heavy rainfall
possible across the eastern plains, where 1 to 3 inch rain amounts
may be common with locally higher amounts. Some severe thunderstorms
will also be possible across the eastern plains each afternoon and
evening. A moist back door cold front early next week will spread
precipitation chances westward to the continental divide again, while
heavier rainfall continues to favor the eastern plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest flow aloft will strengthen as a longwave trough deepens
over the western US Thursday and Friday. Breezy to windy conditions
will redevelop over the forecast area with the strongest winds
Friday afternoon, when northeast areas could have wind gusts near 50
mph.

A broad upper level low pressure system will develop over the upper
Great Basin Thursday and Friday before weakening and shifting slowly
eastward toward the central Rockies this weekend. This low will draw
a moist southeasterly low level return flow over eastern NM, creating
a favorable shear profile for a 3-day stretch of severe weather.
Model CAPEs suggest severe thunderstorms will favor the eastern
plains, where large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will
be possible starting Friday afternoon.

A gusty and moist back door cold front is then forecast to dive
southwestward into the state Sunday afternoon by the GFS, but not
until Monday afternoon by the ECMWF. Both models depict the longwave
trough persisting with an axis just west of NM. These solutions both
suggest persistence of showers and thunderstorms into early next
week. When the front arrives it should have a re-invigorating effect
on showers and thunderstorms, and may cause precipitation to
strengthen in the east while spreading it westward to the continental
divide. The Rio Grande Valley may also experience a gusty east
canyon wind.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather of late will transition to a wetter pattern late this
week into next week. Eastern NM to see the bulk of the rain while
western areas get an opportunity for rain Friday and Saturday, and
again early next week.

A back door cold front has moved into northeast NM early this
morning and will continue south and west through this morning,
before stalling midday and gradually washing out this afternoon.
With the loss of the lee side trough the northeast and east central
areas will have less wind today, as well as cooler temperatures, up
to 10 degrees cooler in the far northeast, such as Clayton. The rest
of the area will be dry and warm with near to above normal high
temperatures. Breezes in the northwest will combine with continued
low humidities under 15 percent to produce borderline critical fire
weather conditions for a couple of hours this afternoon. Good or
better vent rates today except fair to poor in the northeast behind
the back door front.

Thursday now looks to be dry and warmer with breezy to windy
conditions developing in the northwest and northeast. A couple of
hours of critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
afternoon in these areas.

A strengthening upper level trough will develop across the Pacific
Northwest today and move inland Thursday as a closed low forms
around the Oregon, Montana, Nevada borders Thursday night. This low
will lift northeast Friday while additional energy on the back side
of the trough dives south to produce a deep trough over the Great
Basin with a possible closed low in NV. This will bring about an
extended period of low level southerly flow in the east, and result
in increasing chances and coverage of showers and thunderstorms
Friday through this coming weekend. This looks like a classic dry
line set up with drier air pushing east during the day, a line of
storms firing up in the eastern highlands onto the plains each
afternoon, then the dry line sloshes back west toward the east
slopes of the central mountains at night. This should be the case
Friday through the weekend. Meanwhile, the west will see limited
convection, isolated over the western mountains and most of the Rio
Grande Valley, scattered to numerous over the Jemez and San Juan
Mountains. Coverage in the west though will begin to diminish over
the weekend, especially Sunday, as the western trough approaches NM.
Highs will generally cool during this period while the humidities
increase, with the exception of Sunday when they will lower over
much of the area.

Yet more energy will advance south on the back side of the trough
early next week, sharping up the trough again in the southwest. At
the same time a potent back door cold front is still scheduled to
blast south and west Sunday night and Monday. This should be the
prime time for the most widespread precipitation across the forecast
area, that being Monday through Tuesday. A drying trend from west to
east will begin Wednesday.

Vent rates will generally be good to excellent from Thursday into
next week, except for a few bouts of poor ventilation across the
northeast on Sunday and Monday, and over parts of the east Tuesday.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$