Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 271751 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.