Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 171238 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
638 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE WIND ADVOSRY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WORDING.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...548 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT...BKN-OVC030-050 CLOUD DECK
EXTENDS FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TEXAS
BORDER INCLUDING KRTN...KLVS AND KCAO. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL...WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 15Z. CIGS COULD MOVE INTO THE KTCC AREA AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE STEADILY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
RELAX. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INCLUDING KCVS AND KROW WHERE LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL AND PRIMARILY EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST
INTO THE STATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SPOT MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT.
ON SUNDAY...REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST NM HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY WARMING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUSPECT THE LIGHT SNOW AT RATON AND LIGHT RAIN AT LAS VEGAS
WILL END SHORTLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID CLOUD TOP WARMING AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES THE TOP-DOWN DRY OUT.
COOLER DAY IN STORE TODAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE EAST WHERE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES FALL TO OUR
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL CLOSED LOW MOVING
OVER SAN DIEGO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESULT AND BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID- LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY MOUNTAINS...FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LOW FILLS SOMEWHAT AND OPENS UP INTO
AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER
NW AND SE NM

SATURDAY LOOKS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AREA-WIDE WITH THE BEST LOW AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH BETTER 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES. TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INSIST ON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST DESPITE A RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. SUSPECT
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT TOO DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH A FEW
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
CREST. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG/WINDY AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REDUCED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS RH VALUES AND CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND.  DRIER AND WINDIER NEXT WORK WITH WITH A RETURN TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKING POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH EASTERN PLAINS. WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT NOT VERY STRONG AND GAP WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO
GET GOING. STILL...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING. WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SOME OVERNIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON AREA AND SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS...WHERE RH
RECOVERIES ARE EXCELLENT. EXPECTING GOOD TO FAIR VALUES ELSEWHERE.

COOLER WITH INCREASED RH MOST AREAS TODAY ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EXTREME WEST WHERE RH VALUES
COULD STILL DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST.
MIXING HEIGHTS STAYS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WHERE VENTILATION
SHOULD BE VERY GOOD WHEREAS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST
SUPPORT MAINLY GOOD VENTILATION RATES.OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE
GOOD EAST AND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON FRIDAY...FAVORING THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPS REBOUND BUT BOTH WIND AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...ARE POSSIBLE WEST..

THE UPPER LOW CROSSES NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH FAIR RECOVERIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FAST MOVING AND DRIER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND WINDS INCREASE BOTH TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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