Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240534
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1034 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE THE FRESH SNOWPACK...LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT AT TERMINAL SITES. CANT RULE IT OUT
BUT THE DRIER SFC AIR AND THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE.
IF LOW CIGS/VSBYS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD FAVOR KROW. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WARMING MAY BE SLOWER FOR AREAS THAT SAW MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL
FROM THE LAST WINTER STORM. A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CLIP WESTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND HEADING TOWARDS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. IN APPROACHING NM...THE DISTURBANCE
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SKIES CURRENTLY REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESIDUAL SNOW FIELD PLAYED A BIG ROLE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY...CAUSING SOME AREAS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NM TO NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHS. DESPITE SNOW IN THE
AREA...IT APPEARS DOWNSLOPE WINDS WON OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS
RATON AND CLAYTON BOTH REACH THE LOWER 40S. THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPS
TONIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE AND MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NE ON THE HIGHER IN OF
GUIDANCE. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT A DAY OF MELTING HAS
REINVIGORATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UNFORTUNATELY...GUIDANCE DOES
NOT BITE...SHOWING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED
IMPACT OF DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...BEST GUESS
WOULD BE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ROSWELL AND
CLOVIS...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE GOTTEN BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH
LITTLE WARMING.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO GAUGE FOR SNOW PACKED AREAS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT GENERALLY
FORECASTED SLOWER WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FASTER
ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS.

MODELS STILL ANTICIPATE FOR A LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAS TRENDED EAST CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...THOUGH NOT AS FAR EAST...WHICH MEANS INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BEING SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE...LITTLE IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS.
THE WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO CAUSE MOST PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
RAIN...WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS POTENTIALLY SEEING SNOW. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH AND OUT EAST INTO THE CONUS
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MILD AND FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE AGREEMENT IN MODELS...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A WET SUBTROPICAL CLOSED LOW EAST LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING SAID LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND OUT
OF NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINING
STRONG. TIME WILL TELL WHICH WAY THIS PATTERN WILL TREND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WEEKEND STILL
LOOKS DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE WEAK WAVE PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VENTILATION WILL REMAIN POOR AND BE
POOR ON SUNDAY AS WELL. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITH MELTING SNOW CONSIDERATIONS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST.

MODELS STILL SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE BAJA COAST
THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER DRIVER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST BUT
NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST MODELS
HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE MORE BULLISH FOR PRECIPITATION HOWEVER. SNOW
LEVELS WOULD BE WARM DUE TO THE WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
LOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD ALSO BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE. VENTILATION
RATES SHOULD TREND UP DURING THIS PERIOD BUT REALLY DEPENDS ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE  AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
REACT THE MOST TO THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE BASED ON THE LATEST GRIDDED
FORECAST.

MODELS SHOW DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK WITH SOME RIDGING THUS LOWERING
VENTILATION RATES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL LOCATIONS.

LONG RANGE MODELS STILL AT ODDS FOR LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE BAJA AREA LONGER THUS
DELAYING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT WILL
HAPPEN SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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