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000
FXUS65 KABQ 240931
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WHILE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND BACK INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
STEER THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE. BY FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM TO HOT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE
ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL DEBRIS
LEFT FROM YESTERDAY`S SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. THE HIGH IS ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH LOWERING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. IT WILL STILL BE WARM TO HOT TODAY...BUT LIKELY JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO AN INCH AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS LATER TODAY AND SATELLITE ALREADY REVEALS HEALTHY
PLUME OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE THAT WILL JUST BARELY STRETCH AND LAY
INTO NW NM. WITH THE RELOCATION OF THE HIGH...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL ALTER...GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
THIS NW CORNER OF THE STATE...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THIS SECTOR OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER NM WITH AN AXIS
ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST TO EAST MOVING
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS OR JUST ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY LOCALES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH...IF AT ALL.

THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND THIS COULD
MAKE SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY FOR SEVERAL ZONES OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR RECYCLING ANYWHERE
FROM THE GILA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. THE BIG FEATURE OF INTEREST LATE SATURDAY WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO ENTER UNION AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY DRAGGING A SWATH OF STORMS INTO THE
STATE AS IT ADVECTS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTION
WIND SHEAR. POPS TREND UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS...PARTICULARLY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

A SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FRONTAL WINDS HITTING THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...AND A CONTINUED FLUX OF HEALTHIER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY PUSH WILL LIKELY EVEN SPILL BEYOND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FARTHER WEST.

THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER HIGH
MAKES A SLUGGISH RETREAT WESTWARD INTO AZ AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE EASTERN CONUS. REPEATED BACK DOOR FRONTS
WOULD INVADE NM WITH ACTIVE DAYS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FROM THE EAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED MORE OR LESS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHUNTS THE PLUME OF
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...UTAH AND COLORADO...AS WELL AS
STABILIZES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD BE DRY.

STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN SLOW ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS TEND TO DRY OUT BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MIN HUMIDITIES DON/T BOTTOM
OUT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
CREATE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL REFRESH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINLY IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS POSSIBLE
AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVERALL ARE FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS FEATURED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS RAMPING
UP OVER THE CONTDVD INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FACTOR ASSISTING AN
INCREASE WOULD BE THE PLUME BECOMING WRAPPED UP AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATION BY THIS TIME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS GENERALLY ATTEMPT TO REBUILD THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW MEXICO...PLACING THE STATE UNDER A FAMILIAR PATTERN...ONE
WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE DOMINATED THIS SUMMER
STORM SEASON SO FAR. ANOTHER FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE EAST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW -SHRA OR -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MORE
DRY AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THURS AFTN WILL FAVOR NW NM AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THIS STORM
MOTION WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING SOUTH. BRIEF HVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  64  94  64 /  40  30  30  30
DULCE...........................  85  53  85  52 /  40  30  50  40
CUBA............................  87  57  88  56 /  30  20  40  30
GALLUP..........................  89  60  91  60 /  20  30  20  30
EL MORRO........................  84  57  85  56 /  20  20  20  30
GRANTS..........................  88  58  90  58 /  20  20  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  86  58  87  58 /  10  10  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  92  60  93  63 /   5   5  10   5
CHAMA...........................  82  47  81  48 /  50  50  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  60  86  59 /  20  10  30  30
PECOS...........................  83  57  86  58 /  10   5  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  52  82  52 /  30  20  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  73  45  72  45 /  40  20  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  44  77  43 /  30  10  50  40
TAOS............................  85  52  86  52 /  20  10  40  40
MORA............................  85  54  85  54 /  20   5  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  89  59  91  59 /  10   5  30  20
SANTA FE........................  86  61  88  61 /  10   5  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  60  91  60 /   5   5  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  67  93  67 /   5   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  70  95  70 /   5   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  64  97  65 /   5   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  66  97  67 /   5   5   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  95  65  97  65 /   5   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  95  68  96  69 /   5   5   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  96  69  99  69 /   5   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  87  59  88  60 /   5   5  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  89  61  92  62 /   5   5  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  91  57  94  58 /   5  10  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  87  60  89  61 /   5   5  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  62  90  62 /   5   5   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  64  91  64 /  10  10   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  84  54  86  55 /  10  10  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  90  57  88  57 /  20  10  40  40
RATON...........................  94  58  92  58 /  20  10  40  40
SPRINGER........................  94  60  94  59 /  10   5  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  88  58  90  58 /  10   0  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  97  66  99  67 /   5   0  20  20
ROY.............................  91  64  94  64 /   5   0  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  97  69 100  70 /   5   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  94  66  98  67 /   5   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  99  70 103  70 /   5   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  93  66  97  66 /   0   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  95  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  68  99  68 /   5   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  97  69 100  69 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  91  65  93  65 /   5   0   5   5
ELK.............................  85  61  87  62 /  10  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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