Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 300530 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE...THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY WHEN A
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN STRONG TO DAMAGING EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS AT KABQ. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT KTCC AND
KLVS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...945 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.UPDATE...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WERE JUST CANCELLED.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH PRECIPITATION AS MUCH OF IT WAS CONVECTIVELY AIDED WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND MINIMAL.

THIS TREND EXTENDS ELSEWHERE...NOT JUST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. LIGHTNING IS ALSO DIMINISHING...SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED
DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

NEW 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL TRICKLING IN...BUT LATEST MET IS
STILL TOUTING HIGH EAST WINDS FOR ABQ SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS...IT APPEARS THIS
UPCOMING SCENARIO WILL RESEMBLE PAST HIGH WIND EVENTS SUCH AS 01 MAY
1990 AND 29 APRIL 1999. HIGH WIND WATCH WILL STAY AS IS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA AND ANOTHER STALLS ALONG NEW
MEXICOS WESTERN BORDER BEFORE WEAKENING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL THEN...BUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALSO
SHOULD ACCUMULATE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A VERY STRONG EAST WIND. THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FOR WHAT COULD BE AN OVER THE TOP WIND EVENT. THE
700 MB FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS PROJECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KT. WOULD PREFER A STRONGER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THAT FLOW...BUT MOS FROM VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS. THIS SUGGESTS
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN NM BORDER.

BESIDES THE SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO PICKUP SOME
ACCUMULATION ALSO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW MAY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH OR
UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND
THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN WILL DIMINISH...MOST OF WHICH WILL
DIMINISH BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. UNTIL THEN...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ELSEWHERE.

MUCH OF SATURDAY...NM WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...THE ONE THAT IS MOVING OUT TODAY...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE DIVING INTO CENTRAL AZ. DESPITE SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND
REMNANT MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NM. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
LIFT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NE NM.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
TO BE AN OVER-THE-TOP EVENT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL AZ AND 700 MB OVER CENTRAL NM SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-40 KTS. REGARDLESS...A VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING
EAST WIND EVENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE ABQ METRO AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
NOON ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DOCKET
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PERHAPS MOVING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE EACH AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
NM...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WED/THURS...AND THEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO GO UP ONCE AGAIN.

A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE NE NM ON
SATURDAY...BUT EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
VENTILATION WILL TREND DOWNWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND MORESO ON MONDAY. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE FOR
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND THE FAR NW...WHILE GOOD
VENTILATION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION WILL BEGIN TO
TREND BACK UPWARD ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

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