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000
FXUS65 KABQ 271732 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1032 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT
A LIGHT SHOWER EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FAVORING THE NW
BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES. RESIDUAL
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME NEAR SATURATION ACROSS THE NC AND
WC MTNS SO CANT RULE OUT IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT LIKELY
TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP/FMN OR SAF. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT WILL DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. THUS MITIGATING ANY
LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL THERE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA...DRAGGING SOME MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN STRETCHES OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE.
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TURN EASTWARD...TRACKING INTO THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
INTO THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
STATE...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA OF OLD MEXICO. AS THIS FEATURE INCHES CLOSER TO THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST...A WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT WILL UNFOLD OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO SO CAL AS AN
OPEN WAVE. UPSTREAM AROUND 130W THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
INTEREST CAN BE SEEN OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.
MOISTURE DID WORK ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORMER
DISTURBANCE...DRAGGING INTO AZ AND FAR WESTERN NM...BUT IT HAS
BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRECIPITATE MUCH WITHIN THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. POPS WERE SCALED BACK TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN EXCEED NORMAL VALUES
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS.

INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE FORMER BAJA LOW WILL BE MAKING
AN ABRUPT EAST TURN FROM NV TO UT AND CO. FORECAST MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS TURN...WHICH
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE PAST FEW DAY`S EVEN SHARPER DROP
ALMOST SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL STEER THE STRONGEST GRADIENT ALOFT A
BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND FORECAST WAS REDUCED
SLIGHTLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LEE AREAS WHERE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT JUXTAPOSED
WITH THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. STILL SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS...AND DOWNSLOPE BREEZES INTO THE PLAINS EASTWARD WILL
ONLY HELP THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TREND TO CONTINUE. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCANT AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PEAKS NEAR
THE CO/NM BORDER.

BIG CHANGES THEN UNFOLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STOUT
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO NM AND ENCROACHES UPON THE AZ BORDER BEFORE
NOON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET BACK BELOW
AVERAGE IN A HURRY...BUT THIS AIR MASS WILL CERTAINLY NOT HAVE AS
MUCH BITE AS SOME OF THE ARCTIC PREDECESSORS THIS SEASON. SOME
UPSLOPE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COULD SPAWN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL ACTION IS SET
TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
INCHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION TO SPREAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DYNAMICS ALOFT OVER THE RECENTLY ARRIVED COLDER
AIR MASS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE FEATURE...AS WELL AS THE QPF AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES STILL RETAIN A SLIGHTLY MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION ON QPF AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT INVASION
ON THURSDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND MANY
PLAINS TO LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL INITIALLY OBSERVE
RAIN...BEFORE SNOW BEGINS MIXING IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

THIS WILL BE THE ONSET OF A LONG DURATION AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH VERY HEALTHY LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...AND PRECIPITATION
WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. STILL THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO GIVE PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN
MIXING IN WITH SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WAFFLING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
ACCUMULATION IMPACTS IN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...NAMELY ABOVE 7000 FEET LOOK TO DO QUITE WELL AS FAR
AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED WITH MANY MOUNTAINOUS ZONES
LIKELY NEEDING SOME WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEFTY AMOUNTS. WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE TO PULL
ATTENTION TO THE LONG DURATION NATURE OF THE EVENT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND CAUSES THE LOW TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH CA AND OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO PRODUCE ONLY MEAGER
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...DESPITE SOME
RELATIVELY HIGH TPW VALUES INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING
NEWD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NM. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR OVERALL
AGAIN TODAY BUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS APPEAR A BIT
WEAKER AS THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOW DEPICTED TO TRAVEL
FARTHER NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE COOLING DOWN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. VENT RATES WEDNESDAY SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION
EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SOME
COOLING AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...BUT MODELS A BIT SLOWER...HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.
DIDN/T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODELS CAN MANY
TIMES BE TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT TIMING. BOTH MAX AND
MIN RH TREND UPWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY
IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS THE
EVENT PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE NOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY BUT IT/S NOT TERRIBLY
COLD EITHER.

FORECAST VENT RATES THURSDAY ARE POOR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD RATES MOST OTHER LOCALES. RATES WORSEN
FRIDAY WITH POOR TO FAIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE OUTLOOKED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO POOR VENT
RATES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$