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834
FXUS65 KABQ 230858
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
258 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall will develop across much of region today. Extensive cloud
cover is expected to limit surface heating and the resulting flash
flooding potential today. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
across central and western areas tonight. A very active day is store
once again on Monday into Monday night before drier air aloft moves
in from the west Tuesday and Wednesday. A backdoor front is forecast
to trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms once again
Thursday and Friday. The active pattern is expected to continue into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper high center over west-central UT this morning. Clockwise flow
around the high is sending isold storms mainly west and swwd through
eastern and southern areas of the CWA. Models have backed off on
instability for this afternoon and evening, and given the extensive
mid and high cloud cover in place this seems quite reasonable. With
no large-scale forcing to overcome the clouds, will hold off on a
flash flood watch for today. Locally heavy rainfall remains likely,
however. NAM12 continues to bring up an ely wave through se AZ Monday
morning and then through western and northern NM Monday afternoon
and evening. This is the type of convective trigger likely to result
in widespread and organized strong storms for the northwest two-
thirds of the state Monday. Increased precip chances most areas
Monday as a result of this subtropical upper level feature. Storms
will be moving along nicely given the increased south to sw flow
aloft but training of storms is a concern given PWAT values near
record levels for the date (NAM12 forecast pwat values for ABQ is
1.3"). A flash flood watch may be needed for Monday afternoon and
evening.

Subsidence and drier air aloft move in for Tuesday which still looks like
the least active day of the next seven but still plenty of low level
moisture in place for scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Four corners high shifts east over NM Wednesday. GFS
and ECMWF both indicating a backdoor boundary will drop into eastern
NM Wednesday evening, triggering storms over northeast and east-
central areas.

Models agree that the upper level high will shift back wwd Thursday,
allowing subsequent backdoor boundaries to drop in and trigger
scattered to numerous storms. And given the near record to near
record PWATs and weak steering flow, expecting heavy rain and flash
flooding threat to return. Very active/soggy pattern continues Friday
and possibly into next weekend as the Four Corners high slides west
to nwwd, allowing backdoor boundaries to move into NM.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The monsoon is in full swing, with chances for wetting rain and
humidity trending up in the near term. Storms will favor central and
western portions of the area through Monday, closer to the monsoonal
moisture plume, as high pressure aloft relocates from UT/CO to over
eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Locally heavy rainfall is likely
through Monday due to slower storm motion in an anomalously high
PWAT atmosphere. Chances for wetting rain will trend down some
Tue/Wed, while daytime temperatures trend back to near normal as
high pressure strengthens over New Mexico.

The upper high is forecast to move back toward the Great Basin by
the end of the week, with the potential for a backdoor front and an
inverted trough to enhance chances for wetting rain across our area.
Both the 00z operational GFS and ECMWF solutions show the upper high
strengthening next weekend to near 598dam at 500mb, but differ in
the placement. The ECMWF has the upper high way over NW Nevada by
late Sunday, while the GFS keeps it anchored near the Four Corners.
Generally lower Forecaster confidence on the upper high position and
extent of wetting rain potential next weekend, but relatively high
confidence on a wet end to the work week.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered showers and isolated storms continue to move southwest
across central New Mexico, but will gradually trend down through 12Z.
Thunderstorms may move in the vicinity of KROW between 07-09Z, but
otherwise thunderstorm impacts will be relegated to Sunday
afternoon/evening at area terminals. MVFR conditions are likely with
storms Sunday, with short-lived IFR conditions possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  63  88  63 /  20  40  60  60
Dulce...........................  83  55  81  55 /  30  40  60  60
Cuba............................  81  57  80  58 /  60  50  60  80
Gallup..........................  87  60  83  58 /  60  60  70  50
El Morro........................  82  55  80  54 /  60  60  70  60
Grants..........................  86  57  84  56 /  50  50  70  60
Quemado.........................  82  59  79  58 /  40  50  60  40
Glenwood........................  84  64  82  63 /  60  50  60  50
Chama...........................  79  52  79  53 /  60  50  70  60
Los Alamos......................  77  60  78  61 /  50  50  60  60
Pecos...........................  78  58  79  59 /  70  50  70  80
Cerro/Questa....................  75  53  76  55 /  60  40  60  50
Red River.......................  66  47  68  48 /  60  40  80  70
Angel Fire......................  71  44  72  46 /  50  40  80  80
Taos............................  80  53  82  55 /  40  30  50  50
Mora............................  73  54  75  55 /  60  60  70  80
Espanola........................  86  62  86  65 /  30  30  50  50
Santa Fe........................  79  61  80  61 /  60  50  70  80
Santa Fe Airport................  84  60  86  61 /  60  40  50  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  64  85  65 /  60  60  60  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  66  87  67 /  50  60  50  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  63  89  64 /  50  50  50  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  66  88  66 /  50  60  50  40
Los Lunas.......................  93  62  91  62 /  40  50  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  89  66  87  67 /  60  60  50  40
Socorro.........................  91  65  89  66 /  30  40  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  60  81  60 /  70  60  70  60
Tijeras.........................  84  57  84  58 /  70  60  70  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  55  85  56 /  60  50  60  60
Clines Corners..................  82  57  82  57 /  70  50  60  50
Gran Quivira....................  84  60  83  60 /  50  60  50  40
Carrizozo.......................  85  63  84  62 /  50  40  50  40
Ruidoso.........................  78  56  78  56 /  60  40  80  70
Capulin.........................  79  56  81  59 /  50  40  50  50
Raton...........................  84  55  86  57 /  50  30  50  60
Springer........................  84  57  86  58 /  40  40  50  70
Las Vegas.......................  79  55  80  56 /  70  60  60  60
Clayton.........................  88  62  89  64 /  30  30  40  30
Roy.............................  84  60  85  62 /  60  50  40  50
Conchas.........................  91  67  92  69 /  50  40  40  30
Santa Rosa......................  90  64  91  64 /  50  50  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  95  67  96  69 /  40  40  30  30
Clovis..........................  90  66  91  66 /  40  40  20  20
Portales........................  89  68  90  68 /  40  30  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  88  66  89  67 /  30  50  20  20
Roswell.........................  94  69  93  69 /  30  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  85  64  85  64 /  30  20  20  30
Elk.............................  79  60  79  60 /  40  30  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM MDT early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ508-509.

&&

$$

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