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000
FXUS65 KABQ 270934
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING...WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE RIDGE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ALSO TRIGGER MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY EAST
WINDS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR
EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL FRONTS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WETTER PERIOD HEADED TO NEW MEXICO TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL TRACKING INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE MOMENT CONTINUES TO SPARK WHAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A SHORT LIVED STORM. THIS BOUNDARY DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE THE FRONT JUST YET...WHICH WILL BE STARTING TO IMPACT
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THAT PART OF THE STATE TODAY...AND HIGHS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO COOL DOWN TOWARDS AVERAGE...OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW AS CONVECTION INCREASES THIS WEEK.

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINS COULD SAG
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO CONSIDERED ADDING THE
JEMEZ TO THE WATCH...ESPECIALLY AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO MANY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE ESPECIALLY THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AT
LEAST PART OF NEW MEXICO IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRUSH THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FRONTS TO IMPACT AT
LEAST THE PLAINS...BUT ALSO PUSHING MOISTURE WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THEN A STRONGER TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO
BATTER DOWN THE STRONG RIDGE...OR AT LEAST SHOVE IT EASTWARD A BIT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY T-STORM RAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUE THRU THU
PERIOD. IN FACT...THE WED-THU PERIOD COULD END UP AMONG THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE VERY HIGH. MAX VENTILATION RATES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND MIN
RH/S UPWARD EACH DAY...WITH FAIR IF NOT POOR VENT CONDITIONS BY THU.

A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT TRENDS TO WATCH THRU TONIGHT.  FIRST...A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO
LATER TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD T-STORM ACTIVITY FROM
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.
GUSTY EASTERLY GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR PLACES
LIKE TAOS AND SANTA FE...EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR. THESE GAP WINDS COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY  INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN A DYNAMIC THUNDERSTORM SET UP
FOR VALLEY/LOWLAND LOCATIONS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.  GAP WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE SECOND TREND WILL BE A SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGE ALOFT OR AT LEAST A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER ERN NEW MEXICO.  THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE
OVER SE ARIZONA AND FAR SW NEW MEXICO TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD AND
HELP TO BOOST STORM COVERAGE UPWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WEST BY THIS
EVENING...AGAIN WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BECOMING KEY FOR
VALLEY AND LOWLAND LOCATIONS.  THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG BECOMING CENTERED BETWEEN SANTA ROSA AND TUCUMCARI...AND ONCE
EARLY MORNING SHOWER AND CLOUD ACTIVITY DISSIPATES...IT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG HEATING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY.  STEERING WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN VERY
WEAK AND GENERALLY FAVOR EAST-SOUTHEAST STORM MOTIONS ACROSS NC/NE
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST FOR CENTRAL/SW AREAS OR
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER.

AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE T-STORM DAY ON MONDAY...AND A FEATURE TO WATCH
WILL BE AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST...THEN TURN
NORTH ALONG THE NM/AZ LINE.  THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD
THE EAST AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD WED-WED PM...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID-WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP
UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY.  EXTENDED
RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT
BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN.  WIDESPREAD
7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO TO THE NORTHEAST. KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE NAILED REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONT DVD. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY RACING
SOUTHWEST THRU THE PLAINS WILL SERVE TO FOCUS EVEN MORE DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THIS AREA. PLACED VCSH AT MOST TAF SITES
FROM KSAF/KABQ WEST THRU 09-10Z BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR AMENDMENTS WITH TS
IF ANY PARTICULAR AREA BECOMES FAVORED. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL
LINGER FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN/WESTERN NM THRU ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SOME
BRIEF CLEARING DEVELOPS. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT IN PLACE. HAD TO GO WITH LENGTHY VCTS AROUND
KGUP...AND FROM KLVS TO KTCC. MODELS ARE GENERATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AFT 00Z FOR THESE AREAS.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  96  66  90  66 /  20  30  30  40
DULCE...........................  91  53  83  53 /  30  60  50  40
CUBA............................  89  55  84  55 /  40  70  50  40
GALLUP..........................  90  59  86  59 /  50  40  30  40
EL MORRO........................  86  56  81  56 /  40  50  50  40
GRANTS..........................  89  59  83  59 /  30  40  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  87  59  81  59 /  40  40  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  93  58  87  58 /  40  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  84  47  79  47 /  50  70  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  61  80  61 /  40  50  40  50
PECOS...........................  82  56  75  56 /  40  60  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  84  52  75  52 /  50  60  60  40
RED RIVER.......................  71  45  69  45 /  80  70  70  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  76  46  72  46 /  70  70  50  50
TAOS............................  86  54  81  54 /  40  50  50  40
MORA............................  80  53  72  53 /  70  70  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  92  59  85  59 /  30  40  30  40
SANTA FE........................  89  60  82  60 /  40  50  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  91  62  85  62 /  30  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  92  67  86  67 /  30  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  95  69  89  69 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  64  89  64 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  65  89  65 /  20  30  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  63  90  63 /  20  30  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  95  66  89  66 /  20  40  30  40
SOCORRO......................... 100  70  93  70 /  10  20  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  87  59  80  59 /  30  40  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  90  63  83  63 /  30  30  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  56  85  56 /  30  30  30  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  89  59  82  59 /  30  30  30  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  93  63  84  63 /  20  20  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  95  66  85  66 /  10  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  88  59  81  59 /  20  20  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  79  56  72  56 /  80  70  50  40
RATON...........................  83  59  78  59 /  70  60  40  40
SPRINGER........................  85  58  77  58 /  60  60  40  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  85  57  77  57 /  70  60  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  89  61  78  61 /  60  60  40  30
ROY.............................  87  60  76  60 /  60  70  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  92  65  82  65 /  50  60  30  50
SANTA ROSA......................  93  66  84  66 /  40  40  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  97  67  87  67 /  40  40  30  40
CLOVIS..........................  95  65  85  65 /  10  20  30  40
PORTALES........................  97  67  87  67 /  10  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  97  68  87  68 /  20  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  99  70  94  70 /   5  10  10  10
PICACHO.........................  93  65  86  65 /  10  10  20  20
ELK.............................  88  62  82  62 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ515-527>534.

&&

$$