Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 290546 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1146 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE RGV AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
TOWARD THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY -RA ACROSS THE WEST AND ISO-SCT
-TSRA ACROSS THE FAR EAST. MVFR-IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS WILL BE WED
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA ON WED AFTN/EVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NEW MEXICO AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL
SURGE WEST THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
IN THE FORM OF GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS
WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER STEEP
TERRAIN...WILDFIRE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SET UP FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A POTENT BACK DOOR FRONT IS OOZING SW OVER
EASTERN NM AND ACTING AS FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE AREA FROM LINCOLN COUNTY
NORTHEAST TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...AND FORCE THE FRONT WEST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES THIS
EVENING THEN THRU THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY THE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT ARE THE LOWEST OBSERVED IN QUITE
SOME TIME OVER NORTHEAST NM. THIS IS TEMPORARY UNTIL CONVECTION
MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WPC INDICATES EXCESSIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL ONCE THE FRONT MAKES IT
WEST THRU THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ONTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW TO SEE IF OVERNIGHT SHIFT GETS A HOPEFUL CONFIDENCE BOOST
FROM LATEST GUIDANCE. THE NASA SPORT LIS SOIL MOISTURE SHOWS THE
MOST FAVORABLE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE...THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS DOES COINCIDE WITH WHERE POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

STEERING FLOW IS ACTUALLY SLOWER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE
UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE MORE TIME TO RIPEN
SOILS FOR FLASH FLOODING. TEMPS TREND BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS PATTERN IS RIGHT ON PAR WITH WHAT IS TYPICALLY EXPECTED FOR
THE TRANSITION PERIOD FROM LATE JULY INTO EARLY AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK AND WETTER DUE TO A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
WESTWARD TO THE AZ BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT A
RICH STREAM OF MONSOON MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE N
OR NE...BUT A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE CLOSER
TO THE AREA CAUSING STORM MOTIONS TO BECOME MORE RANDOM AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD REACH ITS HIGHEST
VALUES OF THE WEEK...WHEN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REACH OVER
1.2 INCHES. THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE TOWARD NM FROM THE EAST RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

THE 500 MB HIGH WILL FINALLY CENTER OVER THE STATE THURSDAY...THEN
IT MAY WOBBLE AROUND NM AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE STATE KEEPING DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH ADDITIONAL WETTING PRECIPITATION
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN REBOUND GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MANY
EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL REACH NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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