Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 210545 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

Showers and thunderstorms appear to be winding down for the night.
There may yet be a stray shower around SAF or LVS before the night
is over. The high pressure center is progged to migrate westward
over NE NM by Thursday afternoon, shifting better moisture
westward with it. Therefore, there should be a slight downtick in
the coverage of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening
with the scattered coverage over the western and northern
mountains. High temperatures a few to 11 degrees above normal may
lead to some density altitude concerns.



Minor update in the forecast package this evening to increase PoPs
over the I-25 corridor from Las Vegas northward to Raton. Showers
and thunderstorms have increased in coverage through this area and
mesoscale models (the local WRF and the HRRR) maintain
precipitation through at least midnight before tapering down
overnight. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on
track. -54/Fontenot


A modest monsoon moisture plume will remain over western New
Mexico through Thursday...where the best chances for showers and
storms will exist. Friday and Saturday will be transition days
with slightly decreased coverage of storms as the upper high to
the east diminishes and high pressure aloft strengthens west of
New Mexico. This shift in flow will set up eastern New Mexico for
improved chances of showers and storms late in the weekend through
the middle of next week...thanks in part to a backdoor front on
Sunday. Temperatures will generally be at or above normal through
the next seven days.


The same basic setup as yesterday with the monsoon moisture plume
oriented from S-SW to N-NE across Arizona and western New Mexico
while the upper high remains centered over Oklahoma. The 12z KABQ
upper air sounding revealed a 0.96" PWAT...which is still above
normal although 0.07" down from 24hrs ago. Today`s crop of storms
is looking very similar to yesterday`s so far. Best chances here
in the ABQ metro will be between 4-9PM and generally associated
with colliding thunderstorm outflow from the SW and SE-E. Rain
amounts will be similar to yesterday as well...generally between
0.10-0.25" with spotty higher amounts to between 1.0-1.5".
Thursday is looking similar overall to today...although PWATS are
forecast to trend down a bit more...closer to average for the
calendar day which may be enough to limit coverage of wetting rain
relative to the past couple of days. Meanwhile across eastern New
Mexico...well above normal temperatures will continue with
Roswell hitting back above 100 degrees again after missing
yesterday (and likely today).

The upper high to the east is forecast to diminish while pressure
heights increase across AZ/NM on Fri/Sat as the next dominant
upper high center strengthens to our west. This change in flow
will cut off the traditional monsoon moisture plume in favor of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the lower boundary layer
and the potential for backdoor fronts to slide south and add
moisture to the mix. The 12z model solutions differ on the exact
position of the upper high from Sunday through Tuesday...although
they all generally agree with a lack of moisture and sufficient
subsidence to shut down northwest New Mexico from any rain
chances. Rain chances elsewhere will largely depend on how far SW
Sunday`s backdoor front penetrates...which will be aided by
convective outflow. Both the 12z ECMWF and GFS agree on an uptick
in storms Mon/Tue across central New Mexico as the upper high
pulls back to the west a bit and centers over Nevada...allowing
moisture to creep further west across our area. Temperatures will
continue above normal through the weekend and likely through the
middle of next week...although dependent on cloud cover and rain
cooling during the active early week period.



Upper high center east of NM continues to circulate moisture over
wrn and central NM. This pattern will slowly change through Friday
and into the upcoming weekend as the upper high center drifts back
to the west over NM and the ridge axis extends from west to east
across the southern tier of the U.S. Therefore, the current tap of
moisture will become reduced or cut off. While storms will be
reduced in number and areal coverage, they will still be scattered
over and near the higher terrain and there may be more of a mix of
wet and dry storms by Friday.

In the shorter term, scattered to numerous showers and storms with
wetting rain remain anticipated for the west and central tonight and
into Thursday. Storm motion tonight will be north to northeast
around 10 to 20 mph but becomes more from southwest to northeast

The eastern plains should largely remain dry through Friday. The
east will also be dominated by a lee trough, which will result in
south to southwest breezes at times. Otherwise, strongest and more
variable winds will be associated with thunderstorm outflows.

A cold front remains forecast to sag into northeast NM Saturday,
shifting the focus for thunderstorms to the north central and
northeast Saturday afternoon and night. Depending on the areal
coverage and location of storms, low level moisture could spurt
through the central mt chain and into the RGV. This likely won`t be
a steady process but intermittent, occurring more in the evenings
and overnights into early next week, but it should help boost
overnight recoveries. What`s more uncertain is how far westward of
the RGV this moisture slosh may reach on a nightly basis. Models
seem to suggest the dominant upper high center may end up over the
Great Basin early next week, where it remains parked through the end
of next week. This pattern will focus storms from southwest to
northeast over the state, and allow occasional fronts to spark
temporary upticks in storms, as well as continuing the low moisture
slosh through the central mt chain, but doesn`t allow for a decent
tap of monsoon moisture.

Temperatures through early next week will overall be above average.
There will be a few pockets of fair to poor vent rates Friday
through Saturday southwest and northeast but more widespread fair to
poor rates forecast Sunday through Tuesday between the RGV and Pecos




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