Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 142120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LIES AHEAD FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO MONDAY...HELPING TO GET STORMS GOING ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL BE
STRENGTHENING DURING THE WEEK...PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CONTINUING TO
AMPLIFY TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NE NM
MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT WWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE EAST WINDS PUSH THROUGH THE
CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED THOUGH TIJERAS CANYON MONDAY EVENING.

UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HOWEVER FOR ROUNDS
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS....ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE FORCED
EWD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
HOW THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE MOVES UP BUT THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE TREND IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR EITHER BRINGING UP DEEP
MOISTURE DIRECTLY FROM ODILE AND/OR SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HURRICANE
CIRCULATION AND THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST. INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER WET.

GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING UP ODILE AND OR DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO NM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER NM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ABOVE NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS THANKS TO A RECHARGE FROM A BACKDOOR
FRONT MONDAY AND THEN MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE LATE IN THE
WEEK. WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH
AN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A
CALIFORNIA TROUGH. THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
CUT-OFF LOW AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...HELPING TO KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO.

THE WARMING TREND THAT KICKED-OFF YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SHOWING UP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A BUILDING UPPER
HIGH OVER THE STATE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITY
RECOVERY HAS BEEN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THE PAST TWO NIGHTS AND THE
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR KROW AND ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NNE. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE ENE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KGUP...
KSAF AND KLVS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHORT-
LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT... A
LOW STRATUS DECK IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. KTCC AND KROW WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THESE MVFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. LOW
STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A NORTHWARD RUN ON KABQ/KAEG EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL PER LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  86  57  85 /  20  10  10  10
DULCE...........................  44  83  46  82 /   5  20  20  20
CUBA............................  49  80  50  82 /  10  20  30  30
GALLUP..........................  51  83  52  82 /  30  30  30  20
EL MORRO........................  49  76  51  76 /  40  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  52  80  53  79 /  20  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  51  78  53  75 /  20  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  53  85  55  77 /  10  30  40  20
CHAMA...........................  42  78  42  77 /  10  20  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  77  53  77 /  10  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  51  74  51  74 /  10  20  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  47  77  46  77 /  10  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  45  67  45  68 /  10  40  50  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  41  70  40  72 /   5  30  40  30
TAOS............................  47  77  48  77 /   5  20  30  20
MORA............................  48  72  48  74 /  10  40  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  54  83  53  82 /   5  20  30  10
SANTA FE........................  53  77  53  77 /   5  20  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  53  81  53  81 /   5  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  81  58  82 /   5  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  83  60  83 /   5  10  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  56  85  57  85 /   5  10  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  84  60  84 /   5  10  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  83  58  83 /   5  10  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  59  84  59  84 /   5  10  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  60  85  62  84 /  20  10  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  78  53  78 /   5  30  40  30
TIJERAS.........................  51  79  53  79 /   5  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  49  81  49  80 /  10  30  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  52  75  52  75 /  10  20  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  54  76  55  75 /  20  30  40  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  79  59  77 /  20  20  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  52  75  53  71 /  20  30  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  50  68  48  77 /  10  30  20  30
RATON...........................  49  73  48  80 /  10  30  20  30
SPRINGER........................  50  76  49  80 /   5  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  48  76  48  76 /   5  30  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  56  74  54  80 /   5  20  10  10
ROY.............................  52  78  53  76 /   5  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  58  82  58  81 /   5  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  57  83  58  78 /  10  20  40  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  85  58  82 /   5  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  57  83  58  78 /  10  30  40  10
PORTALES........................  58  84  61  79 /  10  30  40  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  57  83  61  79 /  10  20  40  10
ROSWELL.........................  58  85  63  81 /  10  20  50  20
PICACHO.........................  55  79  59  75 /  20  20  50  30
ELK.............................  53  75  55  68 /  20  40  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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