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000
FXUS65 KABQ 090428
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
928 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
AN EXCEPTIONALLY CHALLENGING WX SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED BAND OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NM DESPITE
NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WOULD NOT BE THE CASE. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS
WISE...HOWEVER THE QPF ON THE LATEST 00Z RUN IS MUCH LOWER. THE
WRF-NMM WEST SOLUTION DOES FALL MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND THE
WETTER 15Z SREF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE TREND ON RADAR AND THE OBS
UPSTREAM AT GALLUP HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
INCREDIBLY HIGH IN THE 25:1 OR EVEN 35:1 SO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL EQUATE TO ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS. THE NEXT
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE WHEN THE BAND EXITS THE WEST BECAUSE
CURRENTLY IT IS CRUISING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO IMPACTS MAY BE OVER
BY SUNRISE ABQ/SAF WESTWARD. FOR SNOWFALL HAVE ONLY THE ABSOLUTE
MOST MARGINAL AMOUNTS BUT WITH WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS IMPACTS
COULD BE THERE FOR TRAVEL IN THE MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE
HOW SNOWBAND EVOLVES OVERNIGHT AND FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY CONTINUE
STRUGGLE.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...512 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT FMN AND MOST OF FAR NORTH
NM...BUT MORE VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING
GUP... ABQ...AEG...SAF...ROW AND TCC TAF SITES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. LIGHT SNOW
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY S OF
INTERSTATE 40. EXPECT MOST MT RANGES AND PEAKS TO BE LARGELY
OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY S OF A WINDOW ROCK TO LVS LINE...LATER TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTN MON. OF NOTE THOUGH IS THAT FORECAST
MODELS EVEN THIS CLOSE IN TIME TO THE EVENT ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS TO PLACEMENT OR EVEN THE OCCURRENCE OF MEASURABLE
SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW LATER MON MORN TO MIDDAY AT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST
MVFR AT TCC AS DAY PROGRESSES MON WITH CONDITIONS POSS EVEN
DETERIORATING A BIT. HIGH WIND GUSTS AT KLVS AND KTCC EARLY THIS
EVE WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE EVE.

43

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013...
MAINLY DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED NEAR A RESERVE TO SOCORRO TO
TUCUMCARI LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR MONDAY AS A BITTERLY COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD NM OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH DEVELOP A BAND OF SNOW SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST FRIDAY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL NM MONDAY. NAM
SEEMS TO STRUGGLE MIGHTILY WITH QPF WHEN THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM IS BAROCLINIC/THERMAL AND WEAK IN MAGNITUDE. GFS
SEEMINGLY THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
WLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN SHORT-WAVE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH UTAH. THE SNOW BAND IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MONDAY....BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE SE PLAINS. ONCE AGAIN...700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOCATIONS KEY TO WHERE BAND OF SNOW SETS UP. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
FRIDAYS EVENT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES (PRIMARILY SANTA FE AND HARDING COUNTY
ZONES) IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GET AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW ON ROADS AS AIR TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 20S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF/SWE BUT IT WILL ONLY TAKE 1-3"
AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
THROUGH CENTRAL NM MONDAY.

FRESH SNOW COVER COULD SPELL THE COLDEST NIGHT/MORNING OF THE
YEAR FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT STILL PLENTY COLD FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND TO APPROACH RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE.A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS TRENDING SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
MORE MOIST WITH THIS FEATURE SO INCREASED POPS A TAD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

33

.FIRE WEATHER...
MORE COLD AIR ON THE WAY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW IMPACTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING. VENT RATES WILL BE DOWN MONDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY...BUT STILL SOME GOOD RATES SHOWING UP CENTRAL AND WEST.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VENT RATES TO TAKE A HIT AND BE POOR BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CREEP BACK UP CLOSER TO
NORMAL. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

THE NEXT FORECAST DILEMMA INVOLVES A WEAK CUTOFF LOW...FORECAST TO
DRIFT ENE INTO NEW MEXICO THU/FRI. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MOISTURE-STARVED...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN
IN SHOWING SOME QPF AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. QPF LOOKS
MINIMAL AT BEST...SO AM NOT EXPECTED WETTING PRECIPITATION WITH THAT
SYSTEM...JUST SOME CLOUDS AND INCREASED MIXING. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING CUTOFF
LOW...WITH BETTER WETTING POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ON WETTING PRECIP GIVE THEN PROGRESSIVE...OPEN WAVE
DEPICTION BY THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VENT RATES NEXT WEEKEND AS
WELL...BUT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ531>539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505>509.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ518>526-529.

&&

$$