Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 252339 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
539 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

Dryline to stay to the east of NM as an upper low centered over
SOCAL at 23Z moves to nw NM by 26/20Z. Sw winds aloft will
transition to more wly during this time and strengthen somewhat.
S-sw sfc wnd gusts to around 35-40kt to diminish aft 02Z but
resume aft 26/15Z and become more wly aft 26/18Z. Aoa
sct-bkn120-140 with wdly sct virga over nw quarter of NM to
dissipate aft 02Z. Mid level moisture to increase with sct showers
and tsms, some with virga and variable gusty winds or brief
rainfall to develop north and west aft 26/18Z but conditions
should remain vfr.


The next weather system will cross over New Mexico Thursday then
move east into the plains Friday. Temperatures will average 5 to
15 degrees below normal. Scattered showers and storms with gusty
winds and little rainfall are likely for the northern higher
terrain both days. Windy conditions will impact eastern New
Mexico Thursday with high fire danger. Temperatures will warm up
again over Memorial Day weekend with lots of 70`s and 80`s. A
dryline over eastern New Mexico Sunday may allow for a few strong
to possibly severe storms along the Texas line. Next week will
feature near normal temperatures, lighter winds, and continued
chances for showers and storms over the mountains and eastern New


Deep atmospheric mixing over NM today has led to gusty southwest
winds and very low humidities. Temperatures have topped out in the
70`s and 80`s with humidity values averaging below 10%. A few cu
are attempting to build over the western high terrain where 20Z
LAPS data suggests lifted indices near -1C and some weak CAPE.
Any activity will be dry with mainly gusty winds. Near-term model
guidance shows this activity expanding into the northwest higher
terrain and southwest CO overnight.

The center of an unseasonably deep 564DM H5 low center will move
over northern NM Thursday. A 40kt 700-500mb layer jet will stream
overhead while a surface low deepens to near 994mb over southeast
CO. Deep mixing again across the east will favor widespread windy
conditions with potential for isolated areas of windy advisory
around the Sacramento/Capitan Mts and around KTCC. Will hold off
on highlights to see if increasing trend continues. Temperatures
will fall to between 5 and 15 degrees below normal through Friday
as 700mb cold advection near -2 stdev moves into northern NM.
Scattered showers will mainly impact the northern high terrain
with snow levels averaging above 10kft. A couple inches of snow
are even possible for the 2-day period. Otherwise, most areas
will not see wetting precipitation (>0.10") through Friday.

Saturday through Memorial Day will feature a nice warming trend
as pressure heights rise and 700mb temps warm to between +9 and
+12C. Most areas will remain very dry with lots of sun and late
afternoon breezes. A dryline over eastern NM will increase the
chance for some storms along the TX state line, especially on
Sunday, where strong to severe storms are possible.

Another late spring, weak upper low feature is shown by extended
models to take shape over southern CA Monday and move through AZ
Tuesday then into NM Wednesday. This will help keep a nice tap of
Gulf moisture over the eastern plains with daily rounds of storms
possible. Any strong outflow boundaries from storms across the
east could help force low level moisture westward into the Rio
Grande Valley. This will keep high temps slightly below normal
west to the Cont Divide with isolated storms possible. The main
focus for precip will however be across the east through about



An upper level low will approach the Four Corners from the Southwest
tonight into Thursday morning, then it will pass eastward along
the NM/CO border Thursday afternoon and night. This trajectory
will continue to steer a persistent dry slot over S and E parts of
the forecast area into Thursday, with a stream of stronger winds
aloft. Surface winds will be strongest across the east, where
several hours of single digit humidities will combine with near to
above normal temperatures and strong instability to make critical
fire weather conditions likely for the rest of today and again on
Thursday. As the upper low passes, high temperatures will trend
downward around 4 to 12 degrees Thursday from today`sreadings. The
dry out from the past few days of Red Flag conditions should make
up for the cooler readings on the eastern plains, where a red flag
warning is being issued with this forecast package. Locally
critical fire weather conditions should reach as far west as the
east slopes of the central mountain chain and lower Rio Grande
Valley on Thursday, but the limited coverage, cooler temperatures
and lower Haines values preclude the need fire weather headlines
that far west.

Winds will shift out of the NW and weaken some Friday. Temperatures
will also keep cooling further below normal in the east on Friday,
and Haines values will moderate, finally reducing the fire weather
threat on the plains. There will still be some localized critical
conditions east of the Manzano Mountains onto the east central
plains, but not enough coverage for a headline. There will also be a
slight chance for mainly dry showers and thunderstorms across NW
areas starting this evening, which will spread to much of the north
and west Thursday. Wrap around moisture from the exiting upper low
will stream over northern areas Friday, and a trailing shortwave
trough will cross northeast areas with a chance of wetter variety
showers and storms mainly from the northern mountains eastward.

Precipitation chances will linger mainly in the northern mountains
through the weekend and early next week as a long wave trough
persists over the Great Basin. Low level moisture is forecast to
stream northward into eastern NM Saturday night, with dryline
thunderstorms possible on Sunday and Monday across the plains.
Precip chances may then become more widespread on Tuesday as a weak
upper low arrives from the west.



Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ104-108.


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