Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 290001 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING THIS EVENING OVER NE...CENTRAL AND
WRN NM. WIND SPEED MAXIMA ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH SRN COLORADO
WILL KEEP STORMS GOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OR
SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY. ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER CATRON COUNTY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH WILL GET STORMS GOING
BTWN 15-18Z MONDAY OVER NE QUARTER OF NM. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE MTS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OFF TO VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM MOTION MONDAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15KT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...249 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN
VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE MONSOON
DEVELOPS ANOTHER UPSWING IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN TREND TOWARDS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE WEEK WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS WERE A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT ARE STARTING TO
FIND THEIR GROOVE. STORMS VERY SLOW TO MOVE TODAY SO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS. BASED ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND SEEMS TO JIVE WITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A HEAVY CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE GILA REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. SUSPECT THE ABQ METRO AREA WILL GET
INTO THE ACTION BY MID EVENING AND THIS CORRESPONDS WITH THE
ANTICIPATED NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
DONT BELIEVE THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED AT THIS TIME. ABQ
METRO/SANDIA MTN AREA COULD VERY WELL SEE A BETTER SHOT OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED EVENING
ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER BIG DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THUS CONTINUE THE NORTHERLY STEERING
FLOW. THE NC MTNS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORED THUS EXASPERATING FLOOD
POTENTIAL. SUSPECT ANOTHER WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A DRIER TUESDAY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS SO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS. IT APPEARS THE UPPER
HIGH DRAWS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA AND MID LEVEL HUMIDITY
LOWERS...THUS PWAT VALUES LOWER. EITHER WAY...STORMS WILL REMAIN
PREVALENT OVER THE MTNS BUT HAVE A SMALLER FOOTPRINT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

A SUBTLE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST HALF LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OR
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THUS REPLENISHING LOST MOISTURE FROM THE UPCOMING
FEW DAYS. THIS MEANS INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NC MTNS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS LOOK PRIMED FOR THE HIGHER QPF THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO SHOW SIMILAR RESULTS. BUMPED
UP POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS PERIOD.

IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS WOULD GO INTO RECYCLE MODE NEXT WEEK
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE EACH DAY. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGH CENTER
MIGRATES BACK OVER PORTION OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND NEW MEXICO FROM
THE WEST. THE STEERING FLOW WOULD BE ERRATIC AND LIGHT IF THIS
WERE TO HAPPEN.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WETTING...IF NOT HEAVY...
RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD WANE
SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY...BUT ISOLATED SPOTS WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE THE
RULE WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT.
POCKETS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF NM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MUCH THANKS TO WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...STORMS HAVE FIRED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
STEERING FLOW WILL GENERALLY TAKE THEM TOWARD THE SOUTH OR
SW...EXCEPT IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STORM MOTION
MAY BE MORE TOWARD THE WEST. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING THUS
FAR...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...
DESPITE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOTED ON THE KABQ 12Z
SOUNDING. BY EARLY EVENING...STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MTNS TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER NE NM...MAY IGNITE
ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE NE BY LATE EVENING.

APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM WILL MAKE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST ON MONDAY...PERHAPS DUE TO TONIGHTS
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THUS...GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS COMPARED WITH
TODAY.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL KEEP STORM
COVERAGE LIMITED ON TUESDAY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NW NM. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN DRY. WITH LESS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES...AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL A FEW
PERCENT.

ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER
BOUNDARY/FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATTER
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS REMAIN ACTIVE WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO PWATS VARYING LITTLE.

POCKETS OF LOWER VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY FAVOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF POOR
VENTILATION ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WHEN MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER A BIT WITH
CONTINUED VERY LOW TRANSPORT WINDS.

34

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ508>515-527>529.

&&

$$

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