Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
100
FXUS65 KABQ 032225
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET AND COLD PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
AREAWIDE. SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION...NOTHING THAT
SIGNIFICANT. YET ANOTHER COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES WILL
WILL BRUSH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE
LIMITED...NOT MUCH OTHER THAN A FEW SHOW SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
OF THE STATE. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...LOOKING AHEAD THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MUCH LESS
UNSETTLED THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NE NM SHOULD BOW
OUT GRACEFULLY LATER TONIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH SOME MINIMUMS IN THE COLDER MTN
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH LIKELY TO PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. A BIT OF FREEZING FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE QUITE
LOCALIZED.

ONE MORE BOUT WITH A COUPLE OF MOISTURE LIMITED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
EXPECTED FOR THE THU TO FRI PERIOD AND THE FCST MODELS ARE FINALLY
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY WILL BRUSH THE N CENTRAL AND NE
PART OF THE STATE. ONLY TRIMMED THE MOSTLY LOW POPS A BIT MORE
OVER THAT WHICH WAS PARED OFF OVER THE LAST 2 MAIN FCST
PACKAGES...KEEPING COVERAGE SOMEWHAT LARGER THAN MAJORITY OF FCST
MODELS INDICATED OUT OF CONCERN THAT...AT OR NEAR THE LAST
MINUTE...THERE STILL MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES AS SEEMS TO OCCUR A BIT MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE THE CASE AREAWIDE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THE RULE AND A CONTINUED PRECIP FREE
SCENARIO WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOT FAR WEST OF THE
STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE RH/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTH. A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BEAT IT BACK SOME
BUT THEN IT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
VERY TRICKY RH FORECASTING SO PLAN FOR WILD SWINGS. OTHERWISE VERY
FEW CHANGES OVERALL AS THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AND DRIER.

VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE IS STILL
NOT FAST ENOUGH TO RAISE MIXING HEIGHTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAISE
BOTH MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WIND ON FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY VENT
RATE FORECAST HAS JUMPED AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS SO PLAN ON SOME
CONTINUED VARIABILITY UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THE WAVE BETTER. VENT
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEKEND. A VERY
STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND ACT TO
DEFLECT MOST OF THE SYSTEM PASSAGES TO THE EAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
WAVE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND IF IT WERE TO TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST...THEN VENT RATES WOULD IMPROVE.

RIDGING IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE CRUCIAL IN TERMS OF VENT RATE FORECASTS. IF IT
WERE TO STAY FURTHER WEST THEN VENT RATES WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
EITHER WAY...THEY LOOK PRETTY LOW NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO WHAT
OCCURRED AND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH THE RIDGE. DEWPOINT FORECASTS FROM
THE MODELS APPEARED TO BE TOO HIGH SO LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE BOARD.
SNOW MELT WILL MAKE IT TRICKY ACROSS THE LOW/MID ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS SOMETIME
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE. LOOKING AT MTN TOP OBSCD AND SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE NC MTNS TODAY
BUT TERMINAL TAF SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS AT LVS SO
DECIDED TO HOLD OF IN PLACING RESTRICTIONS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL RELOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ISSUANCE. FMN LATE TONIGHT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT LEFT IT OUT
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................   4  31   9  36 /   0   5  10   5
DULCE...........................  -6  29   0  32 /   5  10  10  10
CUBA............................  -4  31   4  32 /   0   5  10  10
GALLUP..........................  -8  38   3  38 /   0   5   5   5
EL MORRO........................  -7  36   0  35 /   0   5   5   5
GRANTS..........................  -6  39   6  38 /   0   5   5   5
QUEMADO.........................   4  40   9  37 /   0   5   5   5
GLENWOOD........................   9  45  12  47 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA........................... -11  26  -5  30 /  10  10  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................   8  34  13  34 /   0   5   5  10
PECOS...........................   4  35  11  34 /   0   0   5  20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -11  26   0  29 /  10   5  10  20
RED RIVER....................... -21  25  -6  24 /  20  10  20  20
ANGEL FIRE...................... -24  26  -8  26 /  10   5  10  20
TAOS............................ -10  28   2  32 /  10   0  10  10
MORA............................  -5  34  10  31 /   5   0   5  20
ESPANOLA........................   1  35   9  39 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................   1  32  13  34 /   0   0   5  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................   3  34  12  37 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  12  35  17  41 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  13  38  19  43 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............   7  40  13  44 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........   8  39  14  44 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  11  41  17  45 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  13  37  18  42 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  15  43  19  47 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........   6  33  14  35 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................   7  34  15  38 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  -2  37   7  38 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................   5  34  11  35 /   0   0   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................   7  39  16  40 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  13  42  19  45 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  13  40  20  42 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................   1  38  12  32 /  10   0  10  20
RATON...........................  -4  37  11  37 /  10   0  10  20
SPRINGER........................  -1  37  12  37 /  10   0   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................   0  38  13  36 /   5   0   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  11  43  20  41 /  10   0   5  10
ROY.............................   8  41  17  38 /   5   0   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  12  45  20  43 /   0   0   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  10  46  21  45 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  13  48  22  47 /   5   0   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  15  47  21  47 /   0   0   5  10
PORTALES........................  15  48  21  48 /   0   0   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  15  46  20  48 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  16  48  19  51 /   0   0   5   5
PICACHO.........................  13  47  21  46 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  13  44  20  43 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.