Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 080402 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1002 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO SLASH POPS AND CHANGE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RATHER THAN
ISOLATED WORDING IN ZONE FCST PRODUCT AS RADAR TRENDS HAVE
DROPPED WELL BELOW WHAT EARLIER RADAR COVERAGE MORE OR LESS
SUPPORTED. ZONES ARE OUT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...534 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. RIDGE CORE
OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND STEADILY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
00Z TUE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PENETRATES NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND BULGES SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. STORM
COVERAGE WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH VCTS SHOWING GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH REDUCED CERTAINTY OF
STORMS FLAGGED WITH VCSH GROUP.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HAS WORKED INTO PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS HIGH
PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS HAS
LED TO A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...HOWEVER A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INFILTRATE THE STATE
ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TIERS OF NEW MEXICO. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT ARRIVES INTO THE STATE. INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AGAIN WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE...GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL TO WESTERN
NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION OVER NEW
MEXICO...MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS HAS
INHIBITED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS PWATS DROPPED A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH. STORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...BUT COVERAGE
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN THE
NORTH. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

THE PATTERN WILL TURN MORE DYNAMIC INTO TUESDAY AS A BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVES. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS HAVE ACCELERATED THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRAGGING IT THROUGH THE UPPER TO
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WELL BEFORE NOON. AS THE FRONT ASCENDS
THE EASTERN FACES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...EXPECT A HEALTHY
DOSE OF CONVECTION TO TAKE SHAPE. EASTERN FACES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL ALSO BE UNDER AN UP SLOPE REGIME THAT COULD
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND ALL AREAS WILL SEE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH RISING DEW POINTS. THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD WITH
SLOW STEERING FLOW...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
OBSERVE A NOTICEABLE DROP...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND WASH OUT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE OBSERVING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL NOT
ESCAPE...AND THUS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TIERS OF NM. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REBOUND A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO
PERSIST WITH CONTINUED SLOW STEERING FLOW.

INTO THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND THE WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION. PWATS WILL HOVER BETWEEN
0.8 AND 1.1 INCH OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR DAY-TO-DAY RECYCLING. THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO STORMS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
STEERING FLOW AND MORE MEAGER INSTABILITY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. UPPER HIGH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...ONLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SUNDAY. GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF OF THE NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT BY
SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DOES INDICATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL INTRUSION
BY MONDAY. EXTENDED FORECAST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED WITH POPS CLOSELY
RESEMBLING CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY JULY.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN INTEREST
FOR RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.

CURRENT WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...MOVING TO THE WSW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
ACT AS A SUPPRESSANT FOR STORM ACTIVITY TODAY...LEAVING STORMS
LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOWEST IN A WEEK...BUT STILL BE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM LATE TONIGHT AND
PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS...AND REACH THE NM/AZ BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING.
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NE PLAINS AND WITHIN THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
INCREASED WINDS WILL PROVIDE A BOOST IN VENT RATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THOUGH THE NORTHERN
MTS AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL REMAIN IN FAIR TO POOR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWN TUESDAY...AND BECOME NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHT
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED BOOST IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SETTING UP FOR A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. DUE TO THE FASTER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION...STORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR WEST AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THOUGH
GRADUALLY DECLINE...THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE RECYCLING OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...SO THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL
IMPROVE AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING
GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCALES. GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD.

THOUGH STILL EARLY...MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMBO TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING STARTING
TONIGHT. TIMING ISSUES ARE APPARENT AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE
SHIFTED HIGH...OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ECMWF VS OVER CO IN GFS...BUT
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MODELS TREND TO THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION ON
ENSUING RUNS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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