Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 201132 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KROW THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z...THEN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KGUP...KFMN AND KTCC
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OF THOSE
THREE SITES...KGUP HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY
FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS
AND WET SURFACES FROM RAIN YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TODAY IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
PERSIST WITH LIGHT WINDS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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