Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 160158 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
758 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Wet winter weather will continue through early next week with
a few inches to nearly two feet of additional snow accumulation
in the mountains, with the heaviest amounts in the northern
mountains. A few to several inches will also be possible at lower
elevations across east central and northeast New Mexico, mostly
Saturday night and Sunday as another backdoor cold front barrels
into the state. Strong winds over central and western areas will
taper off this evening, then east wind gusts up to 40 mph may
redevelop below canyons opening into the central valley Saturday
night and Sunday. The chance for light rain and snow showers will
continue Monday through Wednesday as the storm system gradually
exits the region. After cold temperatures early in the week, high
temperatures should rise near 30-year averages on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The first relative break in winter weather in terms of
precipitation has reached northern and central NM this afternoon.
Light snow does continue for some spots, like the highlands along
the central mountain chain. Even freezing drizzle and rain was
observed at Clines Corners recently. High winds surging through the
Tijeras Canyon into eastern Albuquerque and the Sunport also
continue as peak gusts are still regularly reaching 60 to 65 mph.
Easterly winds have been weaker than originally advertised through
the west-central highlands near Grants and over northwestern NM. As
such, the Wind Advisory for the Northwest Plateau and Northwest
Highlands and the High Wind Warning for the West-Central highlands
will be cancelled with this forecast package.

The overall setup features the 546dm H5 low centered over Yuma, AZ
spinning showers and storms northward over central and eastern AZ.
Meanwhile the colder surface airmass behind the front that passed
through the gaps of the central mountain chain last night remains
entrenched over eastern NM where all areas are under a blanket of
overcast skies. The high winds screaming through the Tijeras Canyon
will continue into the early evening, and will leave the High Wind
Warning for the Middle Rio Grande Valley as is. A second vortmax
will rotate around the eastern periphery of the upper low as the
center of it tracks northward over west-central AZ. Models continue
to advertise the showers over central and eastern AZ organizing in a
band of valley rain and mountain snow. Snow levels fall to 6500`
with this feature through western NM, and moderate to locally heavy
snow will be possible along the Continental Divide. A Winter Weather
Advisory will be issued for the west-central highlands including
Grants where several inches of snow is possible by Saturday morning.
The current forecast features temperatures remaining too warm for
appreciable snow accumulation over the West-Central Plateau
including Gallup when this band of precipitation moves through there
between 6pm to 9pm MDT. With a new round of snow pushing through the
Rio Grande Valley and into the highlands and northern mountains
tonight into Saturday morning, will also leave the current slate of
Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories as they are. The next relative
break in winter weather arrives Saturday afternoon, with PoPs
decreasing and conditions improving southwest to northeast over the
forecast area. The eastern plains look to get light snow and rain
through the day as well with nuisance to minor travel impacts
possible. Saturday night features a weak push of easterly upslope
flow to the east slopes of the central mountain chain, underlying
upper level diffluent flow east of the upper low. This will commence
the next round of moderate to heavy snow that will focus over the
northern mountains Saturday night into Sunday to start the long term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Models are in good agreement on the broad upper level low
pressure system gradually filling/weakening Sunday night through
Tuesday while varying its position around AZ. The storm system
will draw another backdoor cold front with some moisture into the
forecast area from the northeast Saturday night through Sunday
enhancing easterly upslope flow and increasing the coverage and
intensity of snowfall again after a downward trend in snow
accumulation Saturday morning. The potential exists for a few to 5
inches of additional snow accumulation across northeast areas and
the east central highlands Saturday afternoon through Monday
evening, with 3-8 inches in the Sandia and Manzano Mountains, and
6-12 inches in the northern mountains (locally up to 20 inches on
east slopes and higher peaks of the Sangres). A few to several
inches of snow accumulation will also be possible across the
remainder of the high terrain, as well as a few inches at lower
elevations around Taos, Dulce, and perhaps Santa Fe.

High temperatures will bottom out Sunday and Monday
around 4 to 20 degrees below 1991-2020 averages, then a warming
trend is forecast to commence areawide on Tuesday. The upper low
is progged to finally exit slowly eastward along the CO/NM border
Tuesday night through Wednesday while continuing to produce light
rain and snow showers across the forecast area, then slowly
eastward along the OK/KS border Wednesday night and Thursday
allowing our active period of winter weather to come to an end. A
few additional inches of snow accumulation look possible Monday
and Monday night mainly over our southern tier of mountains. In
the wake of the storm system, a weak ridge of high pressure will
begin to move over the forecast area from the west Thursday
enabling high temperatures to climb near 30-year averages
areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A swath of rain with snow above approximately 5,500 to 6,000 feet
will continue pushing into western NM early this evening,
including KFMN and KGUP. The band is forecast to push east into
the Rio Grande Valley and KAEG and KABQ around 16/06Z. LIFR and
IFR from rain and snow will accompany this band as it progresses
eastward overnight. Eastern NM will see continued IFR/MVFR
conditions as easterly upslope winds hang on through tonight.
Latest hi-resolution forecast models keep precipitation going at
times mainly from the central mountain chain eastward through
much of the day Saturday. Isolated afternoon showers along with a
few thunderstorms will develop over the northwest third of NM
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Rounds of widespread below normal temperatures, valley rain and
mountain snow continue through Wednesday. Current high winds
funneling through the Tijeras Canyon and surrounding windy
conditions will taper off late this evening and overnight. Several
inches of snow will be possible over the highlands between 6,500 to
8,500 feet between now and Wednesday with one to two feet atop the
western and northern mountain peaks. Conditions finally clear out
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  50  33  50 /  70  60  40  40
Dulce...........................  28  46  25  50 /  70  80  40  70
Cuba............................  29  44  27  44 /  70  50  60  70
Gallup..........................  24  46  22  48 /  90  20  30  60
El Morro........................  26  42  22  43 / 100  40  30  60
Grants..........................  26  43  21  45 /  90  40  30  60
Quemado.........................  26  44  24  45 / 100  30  10  50
Magdalena.......................  32  45  30  44 /  90  50  30  60
Datil...........................  26  42  25  42 / 100  30  20  50
Reserve.........................  26  49  22  52 /  80  20   5  30
Glenwood........................  37  54  34  55 /  80  30   5  30
Chama...........................  25  41  22  45 /  70  80  50  70
Los Alamos......................  33  43  32  41 /  70  70  60  70
Pecos...........................  31  42  30  42 /  90  80  60  80
Cerro/Questa....................  33  41  32  40 /  40  70  60  60
Red River.......................  20  36  22  37 /  40  70  60  70
Angel Fire......................  16  37  17  34 /  50  80  60  80
Taos............................  25  45  25  46 /  40  60  50  60
Mora............................  26  39  26  39 /  60  80  60  70
Espanola........................  32  50  32  49 /  60  60  60  60
Santa Fe........................  35  45  33  42 /  80  70  60  70
Santa Fe Airport................  34  46  33  44 /  80  70  60  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  38  49  38  48 /  90  60  50  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  38  51  37  49 /  90  50  50  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  37  53  36  51 /  90  60  50  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  37  50  37  49 /  80  60  60  70
Belen...........................  36  54  34  52 /  90  50  50  70
Bernalillo......................  38  51  37  51 /  90  60  60  70
Bosque Farms....................  36  54  35  51 /  90  60  50  70
Corrales........................  37  51  36  50 /  90  60  60  70
Los Lunas.......................  36  54  35  51 /  90  60  50  70
Placitas........................  36  47  36  46 /  90  60  60  70
Rio Rancho......................  37  50  36  49 /  90  60  60  70
Socorro.........................  39  56  38  55 /  80  60  30  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  31  42  33  41 /  90  60  60  80
Tijeras.........................  33  45  33  43 /  90  60  60  80
Edgewood........................  31  45  32  43 /  80  50  60  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  29  46  30  43 /  80  50  60  70
Clines Corners..................  27  40  28  38 /  80  70  70  80
Mountainair.....................  30  46  32  41 /  90  60  60  70
Gran Quivira....................  31  48  32  44 /  90  80  60  80
Carrizozo.......................  36  54  37  52 /  70  50  50  60
Ruidoso.........................  31  48  33  45 /  70  50  50  80
Capulin.........................  26  40  27  37 /  20  40  40  60
Raton...........................  27  43  27  41 /  30  50  50  60
Springer........................  28  45  29  41 /  30  50  40  60
Las Vegas.......................  28  40  28  38 /  70  50  60  70
Clayton.........................  32  50  33  45 /  20  40  20  50
Roy.............................  31  45  31  40 /  50  60  50  70
Conchas.........................  36  49  36  46 /  60  50  50  80
Santa Rosa......................  33  47  34  42 /  70  50  60  80
Tucumcari.......................  33  49  35  47 /  40  40  30  70
Clovis..........................  37  50  38  50 /  40  60  50  80
Portales........................  37  52  38  55 /  40  50  50  80
Fort Sumner.....................  36  51  38  49 /  50  50  60  80
Roswell.........................  43  56  45  55 /  50  30  70  80
Picacho.........................  36  49  38  50 /  60  20  50  70
Elk.............................  33  49  36  53 /  60  30  40  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ202-206-210-
211-213>215-221-227>229.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ207.

High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ219.

Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ220-224-225.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ208-212-
216-223.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for NMZ210-211-213>215-221-227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...33


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