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000
FXUS65 KABQ 162115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE EAST MON AND TUE WHILE THE W IS MOSTLY DRY
AND VERY WARM. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY FROM THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT SOME SOUTHERN MOISTURE
SHOULD TRICKLE INTO THE AREA STARTING THU AND PROVIDE AT LEAST
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS THE W...N AND SC
MOUNTAINS WITH ACTIVITY THEN MOVING TO THE NE AND E. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WANING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE IN THE NE
TONIGHT AND SPREAD S AND W MON...AND SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY MON EVENING. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS MON ACROSS ALL OF
THE E MON INTO TUE. ENOUGH SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE FAR NE AND EC ZONES NEAR
THE TX BORDER ON MON AND MUCH OF THE ERN PLAINS ON TUE PER THE SPC
OUTLOOKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER IN THE E MON AND TUE...CLOSE
TO NORMAL. MEANWHILE THE W WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AND E OF NM WED THROUGH FRI OF THIS
COMING WORK WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
KEY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT THERE WILL BE ROOM FOR SOME MOISTURE FROM
MEXICO TO SEEP INTO THE STATE STARTING THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS PLACE BEST QPF AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS
SO TOUGH TO SAY WHAT AREAS WILL BE FAVORED AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW
A GENERAL SW TO NE BAND OF POPS WILL BE PLACED ACROSS OUR AREA
FROM THE GILA REGION TO THE NE...WITH THE BEST POPS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED AND THU...

A RELATIVELY MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NE
PLAINS THIS EVENING...BEFORE BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE
DELIVERED BY THIS FRONT WILL SPARK AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHEN SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTIER...DRY AND GUSTY CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FARTHER WEST UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EACH AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH A 15-25 MPH EAST WIND IN THE ALBUQUERQUE
AND SANTA FE AREAS.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD...AND POSSIBLY ALSO ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NW PLATEAU. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NW US...AND A
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS. HAINES 6 VALUES WILL BE COMMON WITH SUPER HAINES VALUES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM 3
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BETWEEN 5
AND 11 DEGREES...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND ACROSS SE PARTS OF THE E CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING WITH WHICH THE UPPER LOW
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY DO AGREE ON A SLOW PROGRESSION. THE
UPPER LOW MAY DRAW SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE WHICH WOULD
MODESTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AGAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY. HOWEVER...S AND SW WINDS MAY REMAIN BREEZY
ACROSS NE AND E CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS FAVORED FOR SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE W MTNS
S OF I-40 DUE TO MODEST MOISTURE THAT HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...THE S CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD FOR THE SAME REASON AND THE
NE PLAINS ALONG AND E OF RATON PASS DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
SPOTTIER. LOOK FOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS...WITH THE
DRIER MICROBURSTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND WETTER
MICROBURSTS FAVORING THE FAR E PLAINS AS CONVECTION FINALLY
ARRIVES THERE THIS EVENING. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE
MOISTURE AS IT BANKS UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE SE PLAINS COULD SEE PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE
OF TS MONDAY WITH SCT ACTIVITY FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD
AND SPOTTIER DRIER CELLS FARTHER W TO THE CONTDVD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  93  53  93 /   5   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  41  87  41  86 /  10   5   5   5
CUBA............................  49  88  49  87 /  20   5   5  10
GALLUP..........................  46  88  46  88 /  10   5   5   5
EL MORRO........................  43  85  43  84 /  20   5   5   5
GRANTS..........................  50  89  48  88 /  20   5   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  51  87  52  88 /  20   5   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  94  53  95 /   5   0   5   5
CHAMA...........................  45  81  44  79 /  20  10  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  86  58  84 /  20  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  57  84  56  82 /  20  20  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  49  81  49  79 /  20  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  43  73  44  72 /  20  30  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  77  37  75 /  20  30  30  30
TAOS............................  46  86  48  83 /  20  10  10  20
MORA............................  52  81  51  77 /  20  30  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  57  89  56  89 /  10   5  10  10
SANTA FE........................  58  86  57  84 /  20  10  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  91  58  90 /  10   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  92  65  92 /  10   5  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  93  66  93 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  95  64  95 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  94  65  95 /  10   5   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  95  62  95 /  10   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  94  64  95 /  10   5   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  66  97  65  98 /  20   5   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  90  56  88 /  20  20  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  60  92  59  90 /  10  10  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  89  54  88 /  20  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  87  54  85 /  20  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  89  59  87 /  20  10  20  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  92  62  91 /  20  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  61  83  57  83 /  20  20  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  55  80  54  78 /  20  30  30  30
RATON...........................  53  85  53  83 /  20  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  53  86  55  83 /  20  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  84  53  80 /  20  30  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  60  86  59  83 /  30  20  30  30
ROY.............................  59  85  58  82 /  20  20  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  63  91  62  88 /  20  20  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  64  92  63  89 /  20  20  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  95  64  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  64  92  63  87 /  20  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  66  93  64  88 /  20  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  94  64  90 /  20  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  69  99  68  97 /  20  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  64  92  62  91 /  20  20  20  20
ELK.............................  62  87  60  86 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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