Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 301725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
OUTSIDE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH CONVECTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINAL LEAST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS
KROW...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$

42



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.