Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 160533
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1033 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough off the southern CA this evening will drift
southward to a position several hundred miles west of the northern
Baja Peninsula Friday morning and then remain nearly stationary
through Friday evening. This trough will tap a deep plume of subtropical
moisture and transport it across far southeast AZ and southern NM
tonight and Friday. A backdoor cold front in the northeast plains
late this evening will continue south-southwestward across the
eastern plains tonight. The frontal passage at KTCC will be around
07Z and at KROW around 09Z with winds initially from the north to
north northwest and then a shift to the northeast a few hours after
the frontal passage. These northeast winds behind the front will
gust to 25 knots at KTCC and KROW through mid morning Friday. As the
subtropical moisture to the south overruns the cold front Friday,
moderate rain accompanied by MVFR ceiling and visibilities will occur
across much of south central and southern NM, including KROW, late
Friday morning through Friday evening. Further to the north,
ceilings in the east central plains, including KTCC, will drop into
the MVFR category late Friday afternoon. A lee surface trough in
eastern CO and strong surface high pressure in central TX will
create a strong surface pressure gradient across east central and
northeast NM late Friday morning and afternoon with south winds
increasing to 15 to 20 knots by afternoon. South winds at KLVS will
gust to near 25 knots Friday afternoon. VFR conditions and lighter
winds aob 12 knots are expected across the rest of northern and
central NM through Friday evening.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...606 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018...
.UPDATE...
Updated tonight`s forecast mainly to add patchy fog along and west of
the central mountain chain. The fog will be most likely where the
ground is saturated from recent rainfall, or where snow covers the
ground. There could also be some fog across northeast areas behind a
back door cold front that will arrive tonight. However, MOS favored
low clouds over fog with the front, so resisted the urge to put areas
of fog in the forecast across the northeast. Also, tweeked
temperature, sky and POP grids in accordance with recent radar,
satellite and model guidance trends.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued by National Weather Service EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM...
.SYNOPSIS...
Much needed precipitation will slowly be coming to an end for most of
the area this evening and overnight as the moisture channel shifts
south. Meanwhile a back door cold front is poised to move into the
east overnight setting the stage for much cooler temperatures east of
the central mountains for Friday. Most areas will stay dry into the
upcoming weekend with the exception of southern areas where a few
brief showers will remain possible. Things then get busy again
Monday as another approaching storm system delivers windy conditions
to the area. We may also see a few showers across the north,
including some higher elevation snows Monday and Tuesday as this
system swings past.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds and beneficial precipitation continue to linger over much of
the area this afternoon as a subtropical tap continues to track
northeastward across the southwestern United States. Streamwise
vorticity associated with ejecting shortwaves has resulted in
several inches of welcome snowfall across area mountains while areas
around the Albuquerque metro have totaled close to one half inch of
rainfall or more. The story has been similar elsewhere with the
exception of the eastern plains where visible satellite images reveal
a bit more filtered sun through an expanding cirrus shield. This has
also led to slightly warmer temps across the eastern zones. But this
will be changing shortly.

A positively tilted trough across the western states that currently
extends from the central Rockies back to the central California
coast will shift southward over New Mexico the next 24 hours with
the help of strong shortwave energy racing out of southwest Canada en
route to a position across the central plains by early Friday
morning. This will essentially result in two things... first of all
the precip band with be sagging south and aligning over areas just to
our south. As a result we will see most of the precip slowly winding
down this evening and overnight with the exception of our southern
zones where precip chances carry over into Friday. Secondly, a decent
back door front will quickly make it`s way into the eastern plains
overnight with significant temp drops of up to 20 degrees from this
afternoon.

Heading into the weekend things look fairly quite for most of the
area as drier air filters in from the northwest and westerly flow
resumes at the surface allowing for milder temperatures. But this
lull in the action will be temporary at best. Another vigorous trough
will begin to dig into the inter-mountain west by early next week.
While this will again result in somewhat of a subtropical tap for
the area, the better moisture looks to stay just to our south.
However, this system will induce classic lee side troughing,
thus strengthening surface gradients and causing stronger west winds
for Monday. As we combine this with mixing of higher speed winds
aloft, we will likely be looking at a very windy day with possible
advisory level winds to start the new week. Some light precipitation
will also be possible early next week, but will likely not be of the
same magnitude that we have seen today.

In the wake of this system another back door front will bring brief
cooling to the area before yet another strong west coast system
approaches with what could be another significant precip event just
beyond this forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will be building into the region which will put an end
to the precip across the area except a few lingering showers through
Friday across the far southern zones. Temperatures Friday will
continue a downward trend but start to improve for the weekend
with cooler air moving back in for first part of next week.
In general, a west to southwest flow aloft will keep breezy
to occasionally windy conditions going, especially for higher
elevations during the forecast period. Relative humidities
will be returning into the mid teens to upper 20s starting
Saturday and continuing into early next week. Near critical
conditions are possible early next week, but at this time it looks
like relative humidities will remain a little too high.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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