Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 142344 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Drier air aloft continues to spread over New Mexico as an upper trof
moves into the Great Basin. Sct showers and tstms will in general
move to the east with convection diminishing aft 03Z but isold tstms
to persist until around 06Z. Brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in
precipitation including small hail, will obscure mts with the
stronger storms, which will contain wind gusts to around 45kt as well.
Isold severe storms with large hail and wind gusts to 50kt over
portions of ne and east central NM til around 03Z. Sct-bkn mid lvl
clds aft 07Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017...
An upper level trough will deepen over the western United States
through mid week steering drier air over New Mexico from the west.
Western areas will dry out Tuesday, but the east will wait until
Wednesday. A back door cold front will enter the northeast Wednesday
night and possibly also Thursday night, improving moisture and
thunderstorm chances across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, northeast
plains and the far eastern plains on Thursday and Friday.
Moisture is expected to increase this weekend with a better chance of
thunderstorms areawide. Temperatures for the remainder of the week
will generally vary within 4 degrees either side of normal.


The atmosphere will dry out significantly over NM during the mid week
period with some of the lowest dewpoint temperatures observed since
early July. Locations west of the central mountain chain will be the
driest, where precipitation will be unlikely until this weekend. The
east will benefit from one or two moist back door cold fronts during
the latter half of the work week as mentioned above. Before the
moisture exits the east on Wednesday, shear and instability will
support the development of some strong to severe thunderstorms this
evening and Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A mid-level high pressure system will develop over TX/OK/eastern NM
by this weekend steering a modest but more traditional monsoon flow
over the state with increase thunderstorm chances.



Drier air is already nosing into western NM as evidenced by 3pm
dewpoints in the mid 30s at Grants. Scouring of low level moisture
is taking place over the remainder of central and western NM where
isolated dry/wet type storms are moving quickly eastward. The east
remains very moist and a few storms have already become strong to
severe with locally heavy rainfall. Showers will continue through
much of tonight from the Rio Grande Valley eastward while the dry
air advances from the west. Tuesday will trend even drier along and
west of the central mt chain where min humidity values fall into the
10-20% range. West winds will even become a tad breezy by late day
along and west of the Cont Divide. A few more storms are expected
over the far eastern plains as dryline type forcing arrives from
the west.

Wednesday through Friday will be the driest days since about the
Fourth of July for central and western NM. High temps will trend a
few degrees warmer but low temps will trend cooler with stronger
radiational cooling. High haines values are even projected with deep
mixing and excellent ventilation. Low level moisture will still
slosh around eastern NM however the presence of dry mid and upper
level air will limit the coverage of storms with heavy rainfall.

Saturday will be a transition day as upper level high pressure
reorganizes over west TX and an upper trough takes shape along the
California coastline. This will open up the moisture tap to an
approaching easterly wave over Mexico. A potentially significant
uptick in shower and storm coverage is possible Sunday and Monday.





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