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560
FXUS65 KABQ 300907
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest flow aloft combined with a short wave trough will bring
showers and thunderstorms to most locations today, the exception
being the eastern plains. Ridge of high pressure will build over
NM this weekend with only isolated showers Saturday and then dry
everywhere Sunday. Ridge will shift east early next week as a
potent storm system moves out of the Great Basin Monday, then
moves east to northeast Tuesday. At the surface a cold front will
sweep across the state Monday into Monday night. This period will
feature some strong winds and much cooler temperatures. Dry and
milder weather for Wednesday and Thursday, then low level moisture
will attempt to move into our eastern zones next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A band of rain centered over the lower Rio Grande Valley will
gradually dissipate this morning, while a new round of showers
and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening. The focus
for the most activity will be the west and central zones. A weak
short wave trough will enhance precipitation chances today for the
northwest half of the area. This short wave will exit NM tonight.

A ridge of high pressure will build in behind the trough and bring
about a mostly dry weekend. Lingering moisture over the west and
central mountains will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms
Saturday. Sunday will be dry. Temperatures will warm some each day
and be mostly above normal.

A potent storm system off the Pacific Northwest coast will drop
southeast into northern CA Sunday. It will cross the Great Basin
Monday and onto the central or northern plains Tuesday. Moisture
will be drawn north ahead of the storm and provide a round of
showers and thunderstorms. The western half of the CWA will be
favored Monday while the eastern half will be favored Monday
night. A surface cold front will race across the state Monday.
Some of the storms Monday evening could be strong on the eastern
plains as the cold front interacts with decent low level moisture
and instability. Most areas will be windy Monday with borderline
wind advisory criteria over the western mountains and the
northeast. Temperatures will cool noticeably Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and milder with less wind,
thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure. Return flow moisture
could trigger isolated showers and storms over our south central
and southeast zones Friday, then spread north Friday night. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Models definitely struggled yesterday regarding how far east
precipitation was going to make it, and there is concern that they
are not handling todays precip well once again. That said, there is
currently a nice area of stratiform rain across much of Socorro
county and that is slowly moving eastward this morning. This is
expected to weaken and dissipate by mid morning. Again, there may be
a brief lull in the activity before this afternoon`s round of storms
develop. It appears the favored area for storms will be similar
areas that received rain on Thursday, though the storms may push
farther east, perhaps into the east central plains, by the evening
hours.

Mid level dry air is still on tap to move into NM starting tonight
and becoming more pronounced through the weekend with increasing
westerly flow aloft. Still though, the NAM and the local WRF are
showing a few storms developing Saturday afternoon, mainly across
the far eastern plains as of the latest run, though this has been
flip-flopping around. Wetting precip is not expected though.

All eyes are then on a strong upper level low that will dive into
the Great Basin on Monday morning then track eastward across the
central Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday.  Models are still working out
the details of the path of the main upper low and any shortwaves
rotating around it, however, confidence remains high that windier
conditions will return for the Land of Enchantment.  Winds will ramp
back up abruptly on Monday areawide with strong southwest flow aloft
ahead of the system, decent mixing and a strengthening lee side
surface low. As the system shifts eastward, an associated cold front
will shift west to east across NM Mon aftn and overnight. Enough
moisture may be in place for isolated to scattered storms along and
ahead of the front. Very gusty winds will be possible with any
storm, or shower, as precipitation transports some of the higher
momentum aloft downward to the surface. In the wake of the system on
Tuesday, much drier conditions will be in place, as well as colder
temperatures. Breezy to windy conditions are expected to persist
mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. Humidities will
be quite low, below 15 percent, across the plains as well. However,
low Haines will preclude critical fire weather conditions, though
wind speeds and humidities will meet criteria.

Some breezes will persist on Wednesday with northwest flow aloft.
Precip chances remain nil Wed and Thurs.  The latest GFS brings up
some low level moisture across the plains on Friday, but currently
think its a little ambitious with regards to how much.

Vent rates will generally be above the fair category for the next
several days. One exception may be Sunday across portions of north
central NM due to very low transport winds. 34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Low confidence terminal forecast continues as evening weather was
represented poorly by even the recent 00Z solutions. Based latest
cycle on recent radar and cloud cover trends. -RA from near KABQ
south is drifting north and east while eroding on the northwest
edge. VFR cigs/vsbys expected despite this precip and will likely
erode to a thick mid level cloud deck thru sunrise. Potential for
MVFR cigs continues for KGUP overnight however guidance backed off
on this on latest cycle. Friday looks to be equally challenging as
coverage and intensity of afternoon -SHRA/TSRA is again all over
the place. Trended in direction of WRF solution which shows main
concentration of precip along and south of I-40.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  47  78  46 /  20  10  10  10
Dulce...........................  74  39  75  38 /  40  20  20  10
Cuba............................  70  43  72  42 /  40  20  20  10
Gallup..........................  74  41  76  39 /  40  20  10   5
El Morro........................  68  40  71  38 /  50  20  20  10
Grants..........................  70  43  74  43 /  40  20  10   5
Quemado.........................  72  45  74  43 /  30  20  20   5
Glenwood........................  77  50  79  50 /  20  20  10   5
Chama...........................  68  38  68  37 /  50  30  20  10
Los Alamos......................  70  49  73  46 /  40  30  20  10
Pecos...........................  72  47  73  46 /  40  20  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  71  41  72  41 /  40  20  10  10
Red River.......................  66  37  66  37 /  50  30  20  10
Angel Fire......................  67  30  68  33 /  40  30  20  10
Taos............................  73  40  74  41 /  30  20  10  10
Mora............................  70  44  70  43 /  30  30  20  10
Espanola........................  76  50  78  49 /  20  20  10   5
Santa Fe........................  71  49  72  48 /  40  20  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  73  48  78  47 /  40  20  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  74  54  78  53 /  40  20  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  76  55  81  55 /  30  30  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  78  52  82  53 /  30  20  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  78  53  82  54 /  30  20  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  79  50  83  51 /  40  20  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  78  53  83  54 /  30  20  10   5
Socorro.........................  80  54  85  55 /  30  30  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  50  74  48 /  40  20  10   5
Tijeras.........................  71  49  75  47 /  40  30  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  45  76  44 /  30  20  10   5
Clines Corners..................  71  48  76  47 /  30  20  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  72  49  75  50 /  30  20  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  76  52  80  54 /  30  20  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  69  49  73  49 /  30  30  20  10
Capulin.........................  76  45  75  46 /  20  40  20  10
Raton...........................  78  44  79  44 /  20  30  10  10
Springer........................  79  46  80  47 /  10  20  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  75  46  77  45 /  20  20  20   5
Clayton.........................  80  51  82  52 /  10  20  10  10
Roy.............................  78  47  79  48 /  10  20  10   5
Conchas.........................  82  56  85  55 /   5  10  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  82  55  86  55 /   5  10  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  84  56  88  55 /   5  10   5   5
Clovis..........................  79  54  84  54 /   0  10  10   5
Portales........................  79  53  83  54 /   0   5  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  78  52  84  55 /   5  10  10   5
Roswell.........................  79  56  86  56 /  20  10  10   0
Picacho.........................  75  53  79  55 /  20  20  10   5
Elk.............................  69  50  73  50 /  30  20  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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