Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 302358
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
558 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
An active night and day on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms
continuing much of the through 00z Thursday across the eastern
plains, which includes TCC and ROW. Long duration of SH in ROW
with MVFR and IFR conditions from about 02z this evening through
18z Wednesday. A few tempo groups for SH in TCC with occasional
MVFR to IFR conditions. Central TAF sites like SAF, ABQ and SAF
just VCSH through about midnight. LVS more likely to get a SH or
two this evening and showers will be around later tonight into
Wednesday as well with MVFR conditions. VFR and probably dry at
GUP and FMN.
.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016...
Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
eastern New Mexico through tonight and Wednesday. Storm coverage
will increase over central and western New Mexico Wednesday into
Friday as the moisture finally surges toward the north and west.
Temperatures will remain below normal statewide with more cloud
cover and precipitation over the area. An upper level trough will
approach New Mexico from the west this weekend and bring a return
to dry and breezy weather into early next week. Temperatures will
also warm closer to seasonal normals.
The main focus for showers and storms with heavy rainfall will
remain over eastern New Mexico through tonight and Wednesday. Gap
winds will strengthen within the RGV tonight as low level easterly
flow strengthens ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance.
This moisture rich wave will drag increasing coverage of showers
and storms into central & western NM late Wednesday through Friday.
PW values will be plenty high w/ weak steering flow to support
locally heavy rainfall. However, models have done poorly with
stability across central and western areas the past few days.
Nonetheless, nearly all near-term model guidance is bullish
bringing a well defined cluster of heavy rain and embedded storms
northwest across Lincoln County into Torrance County Wednesday.
This will increase potential for more flash flooding on the Dog
Head burn scar. Whether of not activity can hold together into the
RGV is still a huge uncertainty.
By Thursday, an upper high shifting west into TX is shown to pull
more tropical moisture northward. Water vapor loop already shows
a well-defined wave shifting north from Mexico so the ingredients
are all there for a potential widespread rainfall event over the
region between Wednesday and Thursday. Will defer any watches to
later shifts as confidence has been a big issue the past 5 days or
so. By Friday, things may get very interesting as an upper trough
approaches from the west and provides strong forcing to scour out
moisture over NM. Guyer
Pretty high potential for 1 to 3 inches of additional rain across
most areas south of a line from Clayton to Tijeras through Friday.
The Northwest Plateau and perhaps a little ways to its south as
well as a good portion of the upper and middle Rio Grande Valley
will likely see the least amt of rain, mainly a quarter of an inch
to nearly an inch. Other areas will fall in between these two
extremes. Roughly the se half of the fcst area should see the bulk
of their precip between this aftn and Wed night or Thu, the nw
half mainly between Wed and Fri. Burn scar flash flooding will be
a significant risk. Substantial drying and a downtick in showers
and storms Fri into the weekend.
Once again there will be a moderately strong easterly gap wind into
the Rio Grande Valley this evening, mainly between 6 pm and the
midnight hour. Otherwise wind speeds will be mostly 5 to 15 mph or
less. All but roughly the nw quarter or fifth of the state should
see very good to excellent RH recoveries the next 3 nights,
otherwise at least good recoveries. Temps will run at least
slightly below normal most of the fcst area through Thu then begin
to recover. Haines indices will remain low at 2 to 3 through at
least the weekend across the se third to half of the state and
through Fri across the rest of the state: significant increase