Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 252115
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
315 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific trough will continue to dig further south during the next
couple of days and eventually swing off to the east during the
weekend. Strong winds found ahead of the trough will impact northern
and central New Mexico the rest of today through Friday. As the main
portion of the trough pushes east, a back door cold front will swing
into eastern portions of the state Saturday night and push moisture and
cooler temperatures westward to eventually the Arizona state line.
The main precipitation chances will initially start out across the
far northeast on Saturday but trend further west on Sunday. Next week
looks to be unsettled in terms of shower and thunderstorm development
favoring the mountains. The combination of instability and moisture
should kick off daily rounds of storms most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes made to the gridded forecast. Near term
challenges pertain to the high cloud cover originating from the
Pacific ocean and the coastal mountain range found over the northern
Baja. GFS modeled upper level layer RH did a great job in indicating
this higher cloud potential yesterday and continues to beat the
other models today. Value added sky cover and overnight lows to
account for some residual higher cirrus impacts. Otherwise...forecast
looks to be on track. Will let the wind advisory product die at 9
pm. No changes have been made to the fire statements. Clearer skies
overall tomorrow compared to today. Some wind advisory speeds showing
up across the Lincoln county vicinity, but overall the main mid
level wind gradient should shift southward as the trough moves. Not
thinking wind advisory at this time. Went a little above model high
temp guidance for tmrw across portions of the east...especially
southeast.

All eyes will be on the back door cold front Saturday night. Models
seem to be holding steady on some possible impacts late Sat afternoon
across the far NE in the form of shower/storm possibilities. Kept the
slight chance there. Otherwise, chances increases as the front pushes
further south and west Saturday night. PoPs were expanded a little
further south to indicate the rapid speed of the frontal push. Also
added some cloud cover due to the higher potential of low cloud
dvlpment. The front should push westward through the central mtns
during that overnight period.

Some moisture will be in place for instability to form showers and
storms favoring the higher terrain along and east of the continental
divide on Sunday. The central mtns...particularly NC mtns will be
favored. Went a little below model high temp guidance across eastern
and some central areas to account for some cloud cover effects.

Feeling more confident for an unsettled, cooler, cloudier,
thunderstorm pattern for next week. The last two runs of the ECMWF
seem to have come in more in line with the GFS thus a bit wetter.
Suspect the speed and position of the cut off low will adjust some as
we get closer to next week. High confidence and cut off lows
generally dont go hand in hand. Either way...bought off on the super
blend model approach which means higher PoPs favoring the mountains.
That seems reasonable. Still wonder how far west the deeper moisture
will go. Models can sometimes overdo precipitation results under such
conditions although this is the spring that a wetter scenario
associated with this pattern should occur. Will be monitoring.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WEST
AND CENTRAL AND RETURN FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...

An upper low pressure system slowly sagging into the Great
Basin/central Rockies through Friday will continue the critical fire
weather conditions over central and western New Mexico into this
evening, and mainly along and south of Interstate 40 Friday. Winds
aloft will diminish somewhat Saturday as the belt of strongest winds
aloft slides south of the forecast area and winds aloft start to
trend northwesterly.

Poor humidity recoveries to persist tonight and Friday night over
the majority of the forecast area. A combination of Super Haines
(hot, dry and unstable) with low humidities and strong winds to
continue until around sunset over Bernalillo and Valencia counties
over the Sandia/Manzano mts and into the Estancia valley.

Critical conditions return Friday for mainly locales along and south
of Interstate 40. The combo of strong winds and low humidities is
also showing up over ne NM but dryness may not be as much of a
factor. However, this may need further consideration in regards to
the red flag warning area. For now not making any changes to the
warning already out. Temperatures start to cool Friday and mixing
heights decrease. A weak boundary will waffle around the far ne
plains Friday, where an isolated shower or storm might develop.

After another night of poor humidity recoveries for the central and
most of the east Friday night, more significant changes start
Saturday, as the upper winds trend northwesterly and high temperatures
cool more. Potential for critical conditons wane as winds aloft
diminish, but the surface boundary returns more vigorously to the
northeast plains, driven by convection over eastern Colorado.
Chances for convection increase substantially over ne NM Saturday
night, given the surface boundary and it`s low level moisture, and
stronger push down the eastern plains and westward into the Rio
Grande Valley. Sunday`s high temperatures will fall to 5 to 10
degrees below average overall, and humidities trend upward central
and east.

Scattered convection will favor the northern mountains Sunday and
will expand in areal coverage Monday as return flow strengthens and
a weak disturbance undercuts the ridge over the Great Basin and
tracks into NM. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will remain
below average and by Monday night, good to excellent humidity
recoveries are forecast. Unsettled weather with daily rounds of
showers and storms may continue into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Strong southwest to west winds aloft and at the surface as upper
low sags into the Great Basin/central Rockies. Widespread sfc wind gusts
to 40-45kt possible til around 02Z with isold to lcl MVFR vsbys in
bldu. Winds to diminish slowly aft 02Z but remain strong ovr the
higher terrain. Weak sfc boundary may sag into far ne NM aft 26/09Z
but to retreat aft 26/15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  80  48  77 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  41  75  41  71 /  20   0   0  10
Cuba............................  45  77  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  44  77  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  41  73  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  44  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  44  76  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  49  86  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  39  69  38  66 /  10   5   0  10
Los Alamos......................  50  76  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  46  77  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  42  73  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
Red River.......................  37  71  37  64 /   0   5   0  10
Angel Fire......................  39  69  38  67 /   0   0   0   5
Taos............................  43  76  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  47  75  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  51  83  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  49  77  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  48  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  86  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  86  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  90  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  88  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  53  90  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  54  88  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  90  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  51  83  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  80  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  49  79  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  53  83  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  59  86  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  80  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  78  49  72 /   0   0   0  20
Raton...........................  46  82  48  76 /   0   5   0  20
Springer........................  48  83  49  79 /   0   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  49  78  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  54  85  56  79 /   0   5   5  20
Roy.............................  52  83  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  58  90  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  57  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  60  95  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  60  93  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  61  94  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  60  92  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  66 100  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  60  89  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  59  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-105>109.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ105>109.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ502-505>508-511>515-519>526-528-529-532-533-539-540.

&&

$$

50



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