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000
FXUS65 KABQ 142359 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW IN WEST CENTRAL NM...SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. SCT
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW TWO
THIRDS OF NM INTO THE MID EVE HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
GREATEST TAF SITE IMPACTS TO INCLUDE SAF...LVS...AEG AND PERHAPS
ABQ AS WELL WITH GUP SEEING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHRA.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO STILL POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS TIL 09Z
OR SO IN AND NEAR THESE TAF SITES WITH ABQ THE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE
CIGS THAT LOW. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY AT TIMES ALSO MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF TSRA TO SUPPORT USING VCTS OR TEMPO
THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. THUNDER WOULD BE A SHORT TERM
IMPACT AS WELL. SHORT DURATION GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. STRONGEST STORMS MAY STILL
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BUT BOTH THOSE THREATS SHOULD END BEFORE 05Z.
DRY ON SATURDAY...BUT VERY STRONG WINDS LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY
TO IMPACT WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NM AND ALSO NE NM BEHIND BACK
DOOR FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. BLOWING DUST WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
WINDS.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHOWERY AND WINDY START TO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL OFF
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP IN TIME FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...CLOSED LOW ALOFT SITS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND IS
PUMPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ON THE FOUR
CORNERS WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUPPORTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS STARTING TO ENCROACH ON NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON
ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH FEATURE
PLACEMENT AND UPSTREAM PATTERN EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES EMERGING FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. PLAUSIBLY ACCEPTABLE CONSENSUS
MOVES ARIZONA TROUGH ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PUMPS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE STATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PENETRATE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE ALLOW GUTS OF THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGE IN PLACE MONDAY WILL COLLAPSE INTO POSITIVE
TILT MONDAY...AS NEXT INBOUND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL ROUND OFF AS IT DRIFT
TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MAKES AGONIZINGLY SLOW SHEAR
TO THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. PATTERN PROBLEMS WILL CROP UP BY
THURSDAY...AS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BUILD WEAK RIDGE OVER
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY...WHICH PROPAGATES GENTLY EASTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LEAVING THE STATE IN BROADLY ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION PUSHES ONE
MORE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND DIGS
THIS FEATURE INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE BASE ROUNDS OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SHEARS THROUGH NEW MEXICO TO WIND UP THE
WEEKEND IN PRETTY MUCH ZONAL FLOW. SOLUTIONS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL
MATCHED...BUT HAVE ENOUGH IN COMMON TO BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR NOW TO
GUIDE EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING AND SEE WHAT FUTURE RUNS HAVE TO SAY.

OVERNIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EVENING WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH SOME SHOWERS WORKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS LINE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 7500 FEET...REDUCING SNOW COVERAGE
AFTER TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN...AND LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS TO
MODEST AMOUNTS OVER SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

FOR SATURDAY...TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AS
NEXT INBOUND WAVE STREAKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY WITH TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AGAINST GREAT BASIN DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP A
VERY WINDY DAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HAVE PLAYED UP BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL BELOW 7500
FEET...AS NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS LINE KICK UP LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO KEEP
THE DUST CLOUDS GOING RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL REFOCUS OUT OF THE NORTH AND WEST TO THE NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND EXPAND COVERAGE TO THE ENTIRE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FAST MOVING SOUTHBOUND STORM SYSTEM
PLUNGES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY IN THE WEE HOURS OF EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR MID MARCH NORMALS FOR
THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY...STORM SYSTEM LEFTOVERS WELL INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SLIDING TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS...AS NEW MEXICO COMES UNDER THE
DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE...WITH BLUSTERY AND
TURBULENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TEXAS LINE...AND WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES TO MERIT ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER ATTENTION.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER EAST AND SOUTH...WITH RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES NORTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE RIDGE.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL HELP PRODUCE SHARP REBOUND IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH EASTERN POINTS 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
MID MARCH NORMALS...AND 6 TO 12 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES TO THE
WEST. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL KEEP FIRE ATTENTION FOR ANOTHER DAY. QUICK BLIP SHORTWAVE
CREASING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE MONDAY NIGHT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO SUMMITS
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER AIR PENETRATING NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY WILL REVERSE THE BIG MONDAY WARM UP AND RETURN
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. GENTLE WARMING TREND WILL
RETURN MOST SPOTS TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY...DESPITE ANOTHER
COOL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY WINDS WILL RUN BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY...WITH REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE POCKETS OF FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TRIMMED LOW RH AND STRONG WIND AREAS FOR SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...COUPLED WITH
HAINES 5 VALUES AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULDNT BE
QUITE AS MUCH DOWN THAT WAY EITHER TODAY/TONIGHT. AS A RESULT OF
THIS TRIMMING...WILL TRIM THREE ZONES FROM THE CURRENT FIRE WX
WATCH. THE BIGGER FIRE WX GROWTH EVENT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...VERY LOW RH AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED LIGHTNING
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED. SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE RAIN
CURRENTLY BUT THIS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEST SIGNAL
FOR NEAR WETTING RAIN OF A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS. RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRIMMED CRITICAL AREAS BY RAISING RH VALUES
SOME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. REVIEWING STABILITY
AND RH PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT A FIRE WX WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED FOR
MOST AREAS. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WAY BULLISH...DECIDED TO BLEND A
LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE OTHER...MODELS WHICH MEANT SLIGHTLY LOWER
WIND. EITHER WAY...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE COUPLED
WITH MARGINALLY LOW RH AND SUNNIER SKIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME
WETTING PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THAT MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COLD
FRONTAL PUSH.

RIDGING AND SOME DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. DEW POINTS
DROP LIKE A ROCK...AT LEAST BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
THUS...RH VALUES ACTUALLY LOWER ALMOST AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY VERSUS
SATURDAY. LESSENING NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME. SOME LOCALIZED LOW RH AND STRONG WIND
POSSIBILITIES EXIST ACROSS THE EAST BUT THAT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
MOISTURE THUS NOT A BIG FACTOR CRITICAL WISE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY INTERESTING DAY. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW
SOME SORT OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION OVER THE AREA.
MIXING VARIES SOME BUT LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS
MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT A REAL DRY AIR MASS ON MONDAY
WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
POOR TO MODERATE RECOVERIES LEADING INTO THE DAY MOST AREAS EXCEPT
NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. THE WIND FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY AND A PRETTY
STRONG SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY ON THIS DAY. HAINES VALUES VARY
SOME BUT LOOKING AT OVERALL 5 VALUES MOST AREAS. ALSO LOOKING FOR
QUITE A BIT OF SUN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT LIKING THE
POSSIBILITIES OF ONE BEING ISSUED THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION ACROSS THE EAST. A LITTLE LESS WIND ON WEDNESDAY.
VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE REAL GOOD ON TUESDAY BUT LOWER ACROSS
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106.

&&

$$