125
FXUS65 KABQ 111204 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
604 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- One more day of hazardous heat is expected today from
  Albuquerque to Grants, southward through Socorro, and also for
  the Farmington area.

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms along and east
  of the central mountain chain today through Sunday. This risk
  will probably continue there each afternoon and evening through
  the coming work week.

- A backdoor front will recharge moisture and lead to an increase
  in daily rounds of storms this weekend into next week, with
  locally heavy rainfall possible each day and an increased threat
  of burn scar flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

With high pressure aloft centered just off the coast of Los
Angeles, and disturbances crossing eastern NM in northwest and
north flow aloft, locations along and east of the central
mountain chain will be convectively active this afternoon through
Saturday night. With PWATs generally around 50-75% of average
west of the central mountain chain, it will be quite dry there
today. PWATs will be closer to average today farther east, but
there will still be some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms
in the mix on the western edge of the moisture (along the central
mountain chain). A moist backdoor front will plunge through
eastern areas today, probably serving as a trigger for showers
and storms on the eastern plains. Like Thursday, shear and
instability profiles look sufficient for some of these storms to
turn severe with large hail and damaging winds during the
afternoon and evening. Models show showers and some embedded
thunderstorms persisting into the late night hours tonight as
another backdoor front continues to pump rich Gulf moisture into
the state and disturbances cross in northwest flow aloft. The
front will also push through gaps in the central mountain chain
tonight, moistening central and western areas enough for
scattered showers and thunderstorms as far west as the continental
divide and the southwest mountains on Saturday afternoon and
evening. Scattered to numerous activity is forecast over north
central areas Saturday afternoon and evening, and along and east
of the central mountain chain, as a stronger upper level trough
dives southward through the eastern half of the forecast area.

With the dry air over central and western parts of the forecast
area today, it will get quite hot, so we expanded the coverage of
the Heat advisory. High temperatures will trend downward on
Saturday a few to 12 degrees from today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

An upper level high pressure system building over the Gulf coast
will become the main driver of the NM weather pattern in the
coming week as it steers monsoon moisture northward over the
state. Meanwhile, another upper high off the upper Baja Peninsula
coast will help steer disturbances over the forecast area from
fairly active westerlies over the northern and central Rockies.
Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will result, and there will be plenty of moisture in the
atmosphere for locally heavy rainfall each day, and sometimes into
the night. At this time, the greatest risk of locally heavy
rainfall looks to be over the southern and eastern halves of the
forecast area. Recent burn scars will have the greatest risk of
flash flooding, but isolated flash flooding will also be possible
elsewhere, except for a scattered flash flooding risk on Thursday
as a moist backdoor cold front enters the state while a
disturbance embedded in the monsoon flow tracks northward from
Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Triple digit heat is expected in many lower elevation locations
west of the central mountain chain today, making density altitude
an important consideration for operations near complex terrain.
Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will
favor the central mountain chain eastward this afternoon, then
continue there tonight as a moist backdoor front pushes through
the eastern plains. Some virga showers and dry thunderstorms will
be in the mix from Taos southward to Ruidoso this afternoon, and
a few of these will be capable of producing dry microburst wind
gusts up to 45 KT. Over northeast and east central areas, isolated
severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts over
50 KT and large hail this afternoon and evening. Late tonight
into early Saturday morning, low clouds east of the central
mountain chain will produce areas of MVFR and IFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Heat will be the main fire weather concern along and west of the
central mountain chain today, where temperatures will vary from
the 90s to lower 100s, except for some cooler readings on higher
peaks. Some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will again
be possible today over the southwest mountains, and also along the
central mountain chain. Temperatures will trend cooler as Gulf
moisture increases over western areas with central valley gap
winds each night over the weekend. Nocturnal gusts below canyons
should generally vary in the 25-40 mph range, but could be
stronger at times below favored canyons like Tijeras Canyon in
Albuquerque. Coverage of dry storms out west will begin to
decrease significantly Saturday. As a broad high pressure system
builds over the Gulf Coast during the week ahead, it will steer
better monsoon moisture northward over western areas allowing
wetting footprints to grow there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  60  96  62 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  92  46  91  45 /   0   0  40  20
Cuba............................  93  55  89  55 /   0   0  40  20
Gallup..........................  95  50  94  51 /   0   0   5  10
El Morro........................  91  54  89  54 /   0   0  20  30
Grants..........................  96  54  92  53 /   0   0  30  20
Quemado.........................  92  58  91  57 /   0   0  30  40
Magdalena.......................  94  63  89  60 /   0   0  50  40
Datil...........................  91  60  88  55 /   0   0  40  40
Reserve.........................  98  54  96  53 /  10   5  50  40
Glenwood........................ 101  60  99  59 /  10  10  50  40
Chama...........................  86  47  82  46 /   0   5  60  20
Los Alamos......................  89  60  81  58 /  10   5  70  20
Pecos...........................  88  55  78  55 /  20  20  80  30
Cerro/Questa....................  87  52  81  51 /  30  30  90  30
Red River.......................  78  43  71  43 /  40  40  90  30
Angel Fire......................  80  39  73  38 /  40  30  90  20
Taos............................  92  52  83  49 /  20  20  80  20
Mora............................  83  49  73  48 /  40  20  80  30
Espanola........................  97  58  90  58 /   0  10  60  20
Santa Fe........................  92  60  83  58 /  10  20  80  30
Santa Fe Airport................  97  58  86  57 /   5  10  70  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  68  92  66 /   0  10  60  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  99  67  94  64 /   0   5  40  30
Albuquerque Valley.............. 102  66  96  63 /   0   5  40  30
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100  67  94  65 /   0   5  40  20
Belen........................... 102  63  96  61 /   0   5  30  30
Bernalillo...................... 101  65  95  63 /   0   5  50  20
Bosque Farms.................... 101  63  95  61 /   0   5  30  30
Corrales........................ 101  66  96  64 /   0   5  40  20
Los Lunas....................... 101  64  95  62 /   0   5  30  30
Placitas........................  96  65  90  62 /   0  10  50  20
Rio Rancho...................... 100  66  94  63 /   0   5  40  20
Socorro......................... 104  68  99  66 /   0   5  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  92  58  86  57 /   0  10  60  30
Tijeras.........................  93  60  86  59 /   0  10  60  30
Edgewood........................  93  56  84  55 /   0  10  60  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  55  84  54 /   0  10  60  20
Clines Corners..................  87  56  76  54 /  20  10  70  30
Mountainair.....................  93  57  84  55 /   0  10  60  30
Gran Quivira....................  93  58  83  56 /   5  10  60  30
Carrizozo.......................  97  65  89  62 /  10  10  60  40
Ruidoso.........................  90  58  79  56 /  20  10  70  30
Capulin.........................  81  52  71  50 /  50  70  80  20
Raton...........................  85  53  76  52 /  50  60  80  20
Springer........................  88  55  77  53 /  50  60  80  20
Las Vegas.......................  85  53  75  51 /  30  30  80  20
Clayton.........................  89  60  77  58 /  20  80  60  30
Roy.............................  85  57  74  55 /  30  60  60  30
Conchas.........................  93  62  82  61 /  20  50  60  40
Santa Rosa......................  91  60  79  60 /  20  30  60  40
Tucumcari.......................  90  60  80  58 /  20  60  50  40
Clovis..........................  94  65  84  62 /  20  30  50  60
Portales........................  96  65  86  63 /  20  30  50  70
Fort Sumner.....................  96  64  86  63 /  20  30  50  40
Roswell......................... 100  71  91  68 /  20  20  40  50
Picacho.........................  95  63  85  61 /  20  10  50  40
Elk.............................  95  61  83  59 /  20  10  60  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ201-207-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44