Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 242335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Strong westerly winds through 02Z or 03Z with frequent gusts of 30
to 35 kt. Winds will diminish some overnight but pick right back up
Tuesday. West to northwest wind gusts of 30 kt to 35 kt at the
western and central TAF sites, 35 kt to 45 kt at KLVS, KTCC and KROW.
An upper level disturbance will bring a good chance of showers to
KFMN, KGUP, KAEG, KABQ and KSAF between 14Z and 21Z with MVFR CIGS
and possibly VSBYS western TAF sites while central TAFs will likely
stay VFR. These 7 sites will carry prevailing rain showers. Eastern
TAFs likely to remain dry.


.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017...

A broad upper level trough crossing the central and southern Rockies
will steer the jet stream over New Mexico inducing breezy to windy
conditions over central and southern areas tonight through Tuesday
night. Wind gusts will be strongest over the south central mountains,
where gusts to 60 mph are expected. A Pacific cold front will cross
from the northwest on Tuesday dropping temperatures 12 to 20 degrees
below todays readings and reducing fire weather concerns. The storm
system will trigger showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow showers
mainly over northern areas. A few inches of snow will be possible in
the mountains near the Colorado border Tuesday night. Winds will
weaken Wednesday and temperatures will remain cool as precipitation
tapers off. However, an upper level trough will bring more strong
winds during the latter half of the work week, and a strong low
pressure system will bring much colder air and widespread
precipitation Friday night through Saturday night.


Although most of the accumulating precipitation is forecast to favor
northern areas Tuesday, models continue to indicate spottier showers
and storms will also develop as far south as the south central and
southwest mountains. Recent model runs brought the jet stream
farther south, so the area of strong winds on Tuesday now looks to
favor locations along and south of I-40.

Winds will let up some on Wednesday while shifting out of the
northwest and remaining breezy as the upper level trough shifts east
of the Rockies. Models depict the upper trough deepening over NM just
before the system exits eastward. This will help drop a gusty back
door cold front southward through the eastern plains, but overall
winds will be lighter than Tuesday.

A negatively tilted upper level trough is progged to carve into the
central Rockies ahead of the aforementioned low pressure system
during the mid to latter half of the week. Precipitation looks to
favor northern areas Thursday before spreading farther south Friday
and Saturday. Freezing temperatures are expected across much of the
north and west Friday night and especially Saturday night of the
coming weekend. This will probably allow for some lower elevation
snowfall, with a healthy accumulation possible in the mountains.
Another round of strong winds will also be possible Thursday, and
across southern areas Friday.






Critical fire conditions end this evening, as an upper level trough
moves begins to move into the Four Corners region this evening.
Lower temperatures and increased low-level moisture will improve
humidity overnight into Tuesday. The trough will increase coverage
of wetting showers overnight, spreading east over the northern half
of NM. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon.
Showers may will generally remain north of I-40 and possibly reach
the ABQ metro area Tuesday afternoon. Strong winds will not be as
widespread Tuesday, however they will persist over the high central
plains zone. Winds finally diminish Wednesday.

As the trough exits the region Wednesday, cooler temperatures will
funnel into NM, with drier westerly flow west of the central
mountain chain. Thanks to cooler temperatures, humidity levels will
stay high enough to not warrant critical fire concerns Wednesday.
Mixing heights will remain fairly low Wednesday, before increasing
Thursday as more zonal flow aloft builds in. This in turn will help
increase surface wind speeds with a focus for stronger winds through
the west-central highlands and east-central high plains Thursday
afternoon, accompanied by higher transport winds through the central
portion of the state. The increased wind and lower dewpoints through
central NM will enhance critical fire weather Thursday afternoon.

A Pacific low enters the Great Basin region Friday, and into NM
Friday night through Saturday. Long range models still diverge on
whether or not this weekend system will dive through NM, or stay
north of the NM/CO border. A southerly track, favored by the GFS for
the past few runs, will allow for more widespread wetting
precipitation. A more northerly track, favored by the ECMWF, will
limit precipitation chances. After that, long range models depict a
northwest flow with cooler temperatures over NM likely to start the
month of May.



Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT Tuesday for the following zones...

High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for
the following zones... NMZ526-540.



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