Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 270004 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
504 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. AN ISOLD SHRA OR HIGH MT SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE AZ BORDER BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
TUESDAY. BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH IN
KGUP TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...241 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUT SLOW MOVING STORM DRIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MIDWEEK BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN STORM DRIFTS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOTION WILL PRODUCE LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE SHOWER
COVERAGE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...WITH
SOUTHERN CLOUDS CONTRASTING WITH NORTHERN CLEARING AS THE WORK
WEEK GETS UNDERWAY IN THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIGHT NOW...AS LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WELL
WEST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SPEEDY POLAR JET STREAM FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST PROVIDING THE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RIGHT NOW.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND A START ON
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES EMERGING LATE MONDAY ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF MOVE THEIR SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH
AUTHORITY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS COLLEAGUES ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH
EASTWARD DRIFT OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GOOD START CONVERTS PACIFIC SYSTEM
CORE INTO A WAVE AND SHEARS THE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SIMPLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK...AS QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MIGHT TAG THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT AGONIZINGLY SLOWLY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE COLORADO VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND
THEN A WOBBLE INTO NORTHERN SONORA ON SATURDAY. STORM WILL PICK UP
STRONG POSITIVE TILT ON SUNDAY...WITH CORE REMAINING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS WILL CLOSE UP INTO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND LA
PAZ TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCES EMERGING INTO
TUESDAY...AS EUROPEAN SYSTEM WILL PICK UP EASTBOUND SPEED...REACH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AND DROP STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY. DOMESTIC GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL KEEP SYSTEM
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT MUCH SLOWER...WITH CORE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD ARE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SO CAN SIMPLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND
KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NEEDED IMPROVEMENT ON RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY FOR ONE VERSION OR THE OTHER.

OVERNIGHT...MILDER OVERNIGHT YET AGAIN...AS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CATRON COUNTY AND ON TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST SPOTS WILL PICK UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
SOME OVERNIGHT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
SUMMITS SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN THESE HIGHER
SPOTS. RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND END UP LYING FROM
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO GOING FROM ZERO UNDER THE RIDGE
TO SOMEWHAT STAGNANT SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
NORTH BOUND TROUGH CLIPS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SHEARS OFF INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH FROM WEST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL RETURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SURFACES
IN THE EAST...WITH SOME BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAST OF THE WESTERN ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN TIER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE JANUARY NORMALS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RUN ON THE LOW
SIDE...AND FOCUS ON THE SAN JUAN AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS...AND SOME CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ SUMMITS
BEFORE STORMS MOVE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT PICKING UP SPEED AND VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AS QUICK SHORTWAVE MAKES QUICK TRIP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH BREEZY SPEEDS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS...AND SETTING UP EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST. LAST OF THE ISOLATE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
FLICKER OVER THE NORTHERN TIER NEAR THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIDWEEK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING
STEADY...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON TAP...WARMEST IN
THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL
INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AND EXPAND RAPIDLY WEST
AND SOUTH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ACTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE
WARMTH AND INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL CLOSENESS TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY...A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE EAST. DAYTIME SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BUILDING THE NEXT ROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL BECOME BROAD AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST BOUND COLD FRONT
COLLIDES RAPIDLY WITH EASTBOUND TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE NEAR THE FRONT AND UNDER THE BEST
DYNAMICS OVERHEAD...AND THIS COULD SET UP SOME EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THESE BREEZES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BIG COOL DOWN WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY...A TAD
LESS EXTREME IN THE WEST. STORM CORE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS STORM REMAINS IN
PLACE AND CONTINUES TO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED...AND THEN AS NEXT
RAPIDLY SINKING COLD FRONT REINVIGORATES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...STORM FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE
SOUTH WITH CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF ON SUNDAY AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
ALSO LOOKING AT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIP EVENT BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA.

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THU MORN...WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. POOR VENT RATES WILL STILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO TUE
AS WINDS ALOFT TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRETTY
WEAK. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO WED
AREA WIDE. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL HEAD
INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE...BUT WEAKEN
SOME AS IT DOES SO. WHILE MOISTURE IS COMING INTO NM CURRENTLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE...IT WILL WILL BE MORE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SO DOWN LOW. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH AMT OF PRECIP TO BE SQUEEZED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH WED
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY AMTS INTO
THE WETTING CATEGORY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECTED MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER MTN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NIGHT AND WED
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THESE AREAS. SOME MODEST VENTILATION RATE
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM NW AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WED. THEREAFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM...BRINGING SOME COOLING AND A
PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WED NIGHT OR THU MORN AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS FRI.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY FRI NIGHT
OR SAT. NEITHER OF THESE SURGES SHOULD BE TERRIBLY COLD...BUT WILL
DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY
AT START OF THIS DISCUSSION WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP SOME AS THIS EVENT GOES ON...BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL BE RANGING FROM ABOUT 3500 TO ABOUT 5500 FEET EAST
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND A LITTLE OVER 7500 WEST. VENT RATES
IMPROVE THU...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT WORSEN AGAIN
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN PERHAPS IMPROVING MAINLY EAST SAT.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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