Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 290549 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high remains centered over the southern Great Basin through
Friday. Thermal/heat surface low near Four Corners will result in
southerly winds and a low level moisture increase from the south
Friday. This increased moisture is expected to result in an
uptick in thunderstorm coverage along a swath from the southwest
mountains newd to the northeast highlands and plains. VCTS
forecast at most TAF locations Friday afternoon/evening. Strong storms
are likely across the northeast plains Friday afternoon and evening
where a strong backdoor boundary sets up and combines with
northwest flow aloft.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
After a meager crop of storms today, storm chances look to improve
on Friday, especially across eastern New Mexico thanks to a
boundary moving into the area. Moisture will recycle on Saturday
in the form of showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain. By
Sunday and Monday, a weakness in the upper high should allow for
monsoonal moisture to stream northward. Early next week may
include some of the most active days yet this Monsoon season with
storm coverage increasing and the potential for heavy rain and
flash flooding increasing as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Storms are already developing along a weak boundary across southeast
CO this afternoon. This boundary may sink into NE NM and increase
storm coverage this aftn. However, still looking for a somewhat
stronger, perhaps reinforcing, boundary to arrive later associated
with the outflow from an MCS moving southeast over KS and OK. A few
strong to perhaps briefly severe storms are possible both this
afternoon and overnight with these boundaries as LAPS analysis
indicates CAPE values between 1500 and 2000 J/KG. Otherwise, a
meager crop of storms will continue to move off the high terrain
through this evening. Storm motions will generally be toward the
south and southwest.

The boundary that moves into eastern NM this evening should be a
focus for thunderstorm development again Friday afternoon in
addition to usual orographic lift locales. Models are not taking the
boundary as far south as yesterday, but wouldn`t be surprised if the
progression was underdone a bit. Regardless, the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo and perhaps Sandia/Manzano Mountains may be more
active due to upslope flow and increased low level moisture behind
the boundary. Boundary collisions may spark more storms farther
south across the plains as well.

The upper high over the Great Basin still looks like it will
migrate/elongate eastward on Saturday. Despite the high moving
closer, remnant moisture should keep it quite active across the
state.

Early next week, models continue to show the main upper high
shifting east of the state, with perhaps a secondary high to the
west. Regardless, a weakness aloft should allow for monsoonal
moisture to stream northward. Also aiding this process is the
easterly wave that crosses Mexico this weekend. Though the easterly
wave will not directly affect NM, it will help bring up some of the
moisture that has been pooling across Mexico.  PWATs should
increase, perhaps as early as Sunday across the southwest, and all
areas by Monday afternoon. Bottom line is early next week should be
much more active in terms of storm coverage and potential for heavy
rain and flash flooding.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Just enough low level moisture topped by very dry air aloft
continues to tease and has resulted in a weakly unstable air mass
from NC to WC New Mexico. Unfortunately, the depth of the dry air
aloft is significant. This was keeping the overall storm coverage
limited to higher terrain areas, while the subsident/dry air mass
was shutting down the northwest quarter altogether.  Better
moisture/instability across the plains where a few strong/severe
storms possible. Storm motions generally toward the south or
southwest. Wetting footprints will be small with erratic and strong
outflow winds the main concern as well as lightning well away from
rain cores. Outflow boundary interactions could spark new, isolated
activity along the Rio Grande Valley into evening but once again
strong/gusty winds and lightning accompanied by little or no
meaningful rainfall will be the bigger concern similar to yesterday.

The center of upper level high pressure centered west of New Mexico
will gradually weaken and drift east thru Saturday.  A weakening
wind shift also looks to sag southward into northeast areas of the
state later tonight into Friday where an uptick in storm coverage is
expected from the Sangres eastward.  Elsewhere,  the overall pattern
will be quite similar to today though models suggest some subtle air
mass moistening across WC/SW areas.  Above normal max temps to
continue with min RH values in the low teens to even single digits
for a couple of hours across the Northwest Plateau once again.
Haines values of 5 to 6 will also be common over the area for the
next several days. Storm motions will trend even slower and more
variable Friday into Saturday.

But there are signs of a much more favorable pattern developing
early next week,  perhaps commencing as early as Sunday. The main
mid- to upper-level high will reposition east of New Mexico early
next week particularly Tuesday into Wednesday.  Modest but not
anomalously strong upper troughing, as has been the norm the past
month, into the PacNW coupled with the eastward shift of the high
aloft will force a south to north flow aloft over the SW CONUS that
will quickly help to establish a well-defined monsoon moisture plume
that could have some longevity. Widespread precipitable water values
150 percent of normal if not a little higher are indicated by
Wed/Thu next week and this could extend through the first week of
August. KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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