Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 172137
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
337 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms central and west with isolated
storms east will continue through the evening hours before
diminishing. A similar round of showers and storms will develop
Tuesday before drier air aloft from the east confines storms to
far western New Mexico Wednesday. Moisture returns to the central
mountain chain westward Thursday and Friday. An active weekend is
expected as backdoor boundaries drop in from the northeast. These
boundaries will bring in more low level moisture and also act to
trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Four Corners high center located over northern AZ/southern UT this
afternoon with a stronger center over southeast KS. Storm motion is
generally from northeast to southwest. South wind in the mid RGV with
storms slowly heading south off the Jemez should result in at least
a few storms for the ABQ metro. Storms also drifting south near
Santa Fe. A very similar set up remains on track Tuesday with perhaps
more storms for the northern Sangres given the strengthening ely
steering level flow.

Upper high centers consolidate over the Southern Plains Wednesday.
The resulting increased ely flow aloft brings in very dry air aloft,
shutting down most convection over NM Wednesday. Best shot at
isolated storms Wednesday will be across the far west and northwest.
Something worth noting is that typically when dry air aloft from the
southern plains butts up against the monsoon moisture plume, a line
of convection develops along the upper level moisture gradient as
the dry air aloft initially destabilizes the upper levels. NAM12
suggesting this could be the case across central areas Tuesday
night.

Models move the upper high center slightly ewd Thursday in response
to a closed low moving e/ne over Vancouver Island. NAM indicating
the flow aloft will turn southerly enough to draw in moisture to
western and central areas by Thursday afternoon. GFS elongates the
upper high across northern NM and doesn`t develop a southerly
component to the upper level flow. ECMWF is closer to the GFS,
favoring far western areas for storms Thursday afternoon. GFS and
ECMWF eventually moisten up central NM Friday.

Upper high re-develops over the Great Basin Saturday. Meanwhile, an
unseasonably deep clipper trough is forecast to move through the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. This feature sends a backdoor
boundary south into eastern NM, setting the stage for quite the
active weekend and beyond. It`s about time.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather to continue through this coming weekend. Less storm
coverage expected Wednesday and Thursday, then ramping back up
Friday and for the weekend.

Plenty of storms developing west and central NM again this
afternoon. They will continue well into tonight once again. RH
recovery will be good to excellent.

High pressure over the four corners region and one on the central
plains will merge into a single high center in the middle of the
country by the middle of the week. The high will strengthen then
drift southeast later in the week. Storm coverage should lessen
Wednesday and Thursday as the high strengthens to our east, pushing
dry air westward into NM. As the high retreats southeast our
moisture plume will return to western and central NM later in the
week. A short wave trough is now scheduled to drop southeast into NM
later this weekend into early next week. Surface cold front will
bring moisture into eastern NM, with widespread coverage of showers
and storms Sunday and Monday. The risk of flash flooding will
increase through the week and weekend in areas that get multiple
rain events that saturate the ground.

Highs will be below normal in the west and above normal in the east.
RH recoveries will be good to excellent. Vent rates will be fair or
better each day except for spotty poor rates in the western and
northern high terrain.

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&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Afternoon convection is once again firing up over the higher terrain
of western and central NM before generally moving S/SW into valley
locations later this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers and
storms will persist past midnight. Brief MVFR conditions and MT
obscurations will accompany the passage of the stronger storms.
Otherwise VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Similar weather scenario
expected Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  94  63  92 /  30  20  40  20
Dulce...........................  50  86  50  86 /  50  50  60  20
Cuba............................  57  83  58  84 /  50  50  60  30
Gallup..........................  56  87  56  87 /  50  50  60  40
El Morro........................  51  83  51  83 /  50  60  60  40
Grants..........................  54  85  54  86 /  50  50  60  30
Quemado.........................  59  83  59  83 /  40  50  60  40
Glenwood........................  62  86  64  88 /  30  50  50  50
Chama...........................  51  80  52  81 /  30  50  60  20
Los Alamos......................  61  83  62  84 /  30  40  50  10
Pecos...........................  58  83  58  84 /  30  50  60  10
Cerro/Questa....................  53  80  54  82 /  30  40  50  10
Red River.......................  47  73  48  74 /  50  60  50  20
Angel Fire......................  44  77  45  78 /  40  50  50  20
Taos............................  52  85  54  86 /  30  40  50  10
Mora............................  55  81  55  82 /  40  50  50  10
Espanola........................  64  90  65  91 /  40  30  30  10
Santa Fe........................  62  83  62  85 /  40  50  50  10
Santa Fe Airport................  61  88  61  89 /  40  30  40  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  89  66  90 /  30  30  40  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  91  68  92 /  30  30  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  93  64  94 /  30  20  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  92  67  93 /  30  20  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  61  93  61  94 /  30  20  30  10
Rio Rancho......................  67  91  67  92 /  40  20  30  10
Socorro.........................  66  92  66  93 /  30  20  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  85  61  86 /  40  40  50  10
Tijeras.........................  58  87  58  88 /  30  40  50  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  88  55  88 /  30  30  30  10
Clines Corners..................  57  84  57  85 /  30  30  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  60  85  60  87 /  30  20  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  63  86  63  88 /  20  20  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  56  80  56  80 /  30  30  30  20
Capulin.........................  56  86  58  87 /  20  20  20  10
Raton...........................  54  90  56  91 /  20  20  20  10
Springer........................  56  92  58  92 /  20  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  55  85  56  86 /  30  30  30  10
Clayton.........................  63  94  63  94 /  20   5  20   5
Roy.............................  62  90  62  90 /  20   5  20  10
Conchas.........................  68  97  68  97 /  20   5  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  65  94  64  94 /  20   5  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  68  99  67  98 /  20   5  20   5
Clovis..........................  65  93  65  93 /  20   5  10   0
Portales........................  68  93  68  92 /  20   5  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  94  66  93 /  20   5  20   5
Roswell.........................  69  96  69  94 /  20   5  10   0
Picacho.........................  63  88  63  87 /  20   5  20  10
Elk.............................  59  82  59  81 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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