Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Upper low center located over far se CO will continue to drift
slowly ewd today with winds aloft over NM becoming increasingly
out of the nw. Just enough moisture will be circulating in from
the nw such that aftn heating and fairly unstable lower
atmosphere to produce isolated to occasionally sct -SHRA and
-TSRA across the north third to perhaps half of NM. Conditions
will generally remain vfr, though a few instances of higher peaks
obscurations poss across the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Brief and
erratic wind gusts between 35 and 45 kts not out of the question
from the stronger mostly high based convection. The convection and
associated gusts should diminish between 01z and 04z.



Unsettled weather will continue today thanks to an upper level
low pressure system over southeast Colorado. High temperatures
will be below normal areawide...especially across the northeast
quarter where clouds and rain cooling will play a role. A warm-up
is forecast for the weekend with a few late day showers and
storms producing little to no measurable precipitation...except
over portions of the eastern plains where more significant dryline
storms are possible late Sunday. Dryline thunderstorms are
possible again late Monday near the Texas border. A backdoor cold
front will push southwest across the area late Tuesday and bring
much needed moisture to New Mexico with increasing chances for
showers and storms through mid week...especially along and east of
the central mountain chain. Daytime temperatures will dip below
normal behind the front and stay below normal through at least
next Thursday.


Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low over
southeast Colorado with moisture wrapping around the backside of
the circulation. Regional radar mosaic shows a large area of
precipitation continuing to develop along the front range to near
Trinidad...moving south. Best chances for precipitation across our
area today will be over the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and over
the Raton ridge and northeast plains as precipitation continues to
wrap around the backside of the slow to depart upper low. Further
south...daytime heating will be necessary to produce a late day
crop of showers and storms...most of which will produce very
little to no measurable precipitation and gusty winds.
Temperatures will continue below normal today...especially across
the northeast quarter thanks to clouds and rain cooling. The peaks
of the Sangres will likely pick up a few inches of snow later
today...generally above 10k feet.

A shortwave ridge will bring a warming trend over the weekend
with daytime temperatures reaching back to near normal by Sunday.
Sufficient moisture will remain for a daytime heating triggered
round of showers and storms Saturday...but again will be mostly
dry with gusty winds. More of the same Sunday...but deeper
convection is possible along the dryline by late day across the
eastern plains...mainly near the Texas border. The SPC has
included our eastern border counties in a marginal risk for severe
storms on the day 3 convective outlook. The setup involves a slow
moving and weak upper low over southern California...allowing Gulf
moisture to penetrate northwest into the eastern plains Saturday
night into Sunday. The upper low is forecast to fill and open up
Monday as it advances east across Arizona...pushing the dryline
into the Texas panhandle. Another round of dryline storms are
possible Monday...but initiation would be even further east along
the Texas border or perhaps in the Texas panhandle.

A backdoor front is still on track to move southwest across our
area late Tuesday...although the 00z medium range model solutions
differ on the timing. The 00z ECMWF is faster than the GFS and
more bullish with coverage of QPF Wed/Thu. Precip chances will
favor the eastern half Tue-Thu and may continue beyond Thu as
moisture lingers with a building ridge over the Great Basin
blocking any moisture-scouring westerlies. Daytime temperatures
will take a dip below normal behind the backdoor front...
especially east of the central mountain chain.



A relatively moist westerly flow aloft will develop today in the
wake of the upper low that moved through northern NM Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms will favor the northeast quarter of the
state with isolated activity elsewhere. High temperatures will be
between 5 and 10 degrees below average values for late May.

The flow aloft is forecast to transition to dry southwesterly
Saturday, ahead another upper level trough taking shape across
southern California. The flow aloft backs (turns counterclockwise)
enough to create a southeasterly low level flow across eastern NM
Saturday night. Gulf moisture/dryline surges northwestward into
eastern NM as a result. GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement
for Sunday, developing scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
across eastern NM. GFS and ECMWF continue to remain at odds for
Monday with the GFS pushing the Gulf moisture east of NM while the
ECMWF keeps it farther west across the eastern plains. Both models
introduce a backdoor cold front into the mix Tuesday while the upper
trough moves overhead. The upper trough and backdoor cold front will
likely trigger storms across the eastern plains and and northern
mountains. The more run to run consistent ECMWF, however, sends the
front as far west as the central mountain chain, which result in
more showers and thunderstorms farther west. Both models are in good
agreement that Wednesday will likely be the most active day with wet
showers and thunderstorms possible areawide. Thursday remains active
with low level moisture combining with daytime heating and northwest
flow aloft. Both models begin to dry things out Friday as our quasi-
permanent sub-tropical high makes its first appearance of the season
over AZ.

Ventilation rates remain in the very good to excellent category
toady through Monday. The backdoor cold front and precipitation drop
rates across the east Tuesday and areawide Wednesday.





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