Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 191030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  21  45  23 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  35   9  41  14 /   0   0   5   5
CUBA............................  34   9  42  15 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  39  16  45  19 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  35  14  40  18 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  38  12  45  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  37  20  38  23 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  49  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32   8  43  12 /   5   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  23  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  21  41  23 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32   9  37  12 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  28  12  35  14 /   5   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  32   1  40   6 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  34  11  40  14 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  38  19  45  21 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  40  20  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  24  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  19  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  29  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  18  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  42  25  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  23  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  24  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  25  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  18  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  20  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  23  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  23  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  22  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  39  19  41  21 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  42  16  50  18 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  51  20 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  18  51  21 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  46  25  53  25 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  46  21  50  23 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  49  26  51  27 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  26  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  23  55  23 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  25  55  25 /   5   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  52  26  56  26 /   5   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  27  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  26  58  27 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  51  27  55  30 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  49  25  53  30 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.