Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 280944
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
344 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL ERUPT THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS MORE SO ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO THAN
ELSEWHERE...THE OVERALL TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONE OF DAY TO
DAY DRYING MOST AREA. ONLY REAL EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST WHICH MAY TRIGGER A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS AND A LITTLE WAYS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DISPLAYING A SLOW UPWARD
TREND THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY RIGHT AFTER WHICH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PERHAPS COOLING THE
NORTH HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE JUST A BIT. PRETTY MUCH DRY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH SOME INDICATIONS LATE IN EXTENDED
MODELS TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER PERIOD ACROSS BULK OF FCST AREA TODAY THROUGH SAT...THOUGH
STILL EXPECTING A FEW MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NE THIRD MORE THAN ELSEWHERE. MAY EVEN BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
THERE AND SOME OTHER SECTIONS TO E OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AS SOME
LOWER LVL MOISTURE ATTEMPS A MODEST TO MODERATE RUN BACK IN FROM
THE EAST. STILL SOME QUESTION THOUGH AS TO WHETHER MOISTURE RETURN
IS WILL BE DEEP OR OTHERWISE RICH ENOUGH TO REALLY BRING A
SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA. OVERALL...
TRIMMED BACK OR LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST
HALF OF FCST AREA TO BE A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GENERAL
MULTIPLE MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER IT LOOKS LIKE SUN THROUGH TUE
AND MAYBE WED WILL BE DRY AREA WIDE BEFORE SOME LATE SEASON
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY MAKE A RUN BACK INTO WEST AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL NM.

AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMING A BIT DAY TO DAY INTO SAT BEFORE
BRIEFLY PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AND MAYBE EVEN RETREATING JUST A FEW
DEGREES ON SUN. BACK TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS FOR THE
MON TO WED PERIOD. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART TO RANGE
FROM VERY NEAR NORMAL TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT SHIFTING EAST OVER NM WHILE A
MUCH LARGER DRY INTRUSION OVER CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD. SCOURING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT OUT WEST
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ARE ALSO
QUITE CHILLY AS A RESULT WITH MANY LOCALES CURRENTLY IN THE 40S.
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER COLORADO WILL SLIDE OVER
NORTHERN NM TODAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE STRONGER LAPSE RATES WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...AND THUS THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED WET/
DRY CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER AND RH VALUES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN
THE PLAINS AND INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT OVERALL RH
WILL TREND DOWN. RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE REGULATED BY
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING FROM WETTER SOILS.

A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AND WEAKEN
TRANSPORT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR/FAIR VENT RATES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. ANY BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY. TEMPS WILL TREND UP EVEN
MORE TO WHERE READINGS ARE CLOSE TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS
FASTER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SPREAD THE DRY AIRMASS
OVER CALIFORNIA INTO NM. TEMPS WILL WARM UP SEVERAL DEGREES AND
RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN INTO THE 15 TO 25PCT RANGE. BY SUNDAY
THE LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGHTEN ENOUGH WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
AND CREATE WIDESPREAD NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. EVEN A FEW AREAS
OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG INTERSTATE 40
EAST OF SANTA ROSA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH HAINES VALUES
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

THE FASTER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE TAKES SHAPE OVER NM. THE
RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW BEGINS
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT COOLING AND HIGHER
RH. EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW
DIVING SOUTH DOWN THE WEST COAST MAY BRING A RETURN TO SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE AREA.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SEWD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NE NM EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE FROM THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS
EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...NE HIGHLANDS
AND NE PLAINS. FRONT SLIDES SOUTH SOMEWHAT THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE E-CENTRAL PLAINS...SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION AT KTCC TO NELY AND
PERHAPS BRINGING AN ISOLD STORM. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BREEZY W-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING AT KFMN
AND KGUP TO EARLY AFTERNOON AT KABQ...KAEG...KSAF AND KLVS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  84  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  77  44  82  42 /  10   0   5   5
CUBA............................  77  48  81  47 /  10   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  81  46  83  48 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  76  45  77  45 /   5   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  80  47  81  48 /   5   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  77  48  80  49 /   5   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  86  54  87  56 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  72  39  76  38 /  30  10  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  76  51  79  52 /  10   0   5  10
PECOS...........................  75  49  77  51 /  10   0  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  43  77  45 /  30  10  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  63  41  67  38 /  50  20  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  70  37  74  36 /  30  20  20  20
TAOS............................  76  44  79  47 /  20   5  10   5
MORA............................  75  46  76  47 /  20   5  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  81  51  84  53 /  10   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................  79  52  80  54 /  10   0   0  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  81  51  82  54 /   5   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  56  84  60 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  60  86  63 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  57  89  58 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  58  89  59 /   0   0   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  85  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  87  59  89  61 /   0   0   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  89  60  90  64 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  53  81  55 /  10   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  81  53  84  55 /   5   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  48  85  52 /   5   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  51  81  54 /   5   0  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  80  53  81  56 /   5   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  56  85  59 /   5   0   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  78  54  81  56 /  10   5  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  76  49  81  53 /  40  30  20  20
RATON...........................  80  47  82  50 /  40  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  80  50  84  51 /  30  20  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  47  80  51 /  10   5  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  83  57  86  58 /  40  30  20  20
ROY.............................  81  55  84  58 /  30  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  88  60  90  63 /  10  10  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  87  58  88  61 /  10   5  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  59  91  62 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  90  59  89  61 /  20  20  20  10
PORTALES........................  91  60  90  63 /  10  20  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  60  90  63 /   5  10  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  93  65  95  66 /  10  10  10  10
PICACHO.........................  85  58  88  61 /  10   5  10  10
ELK.............................  79  56  82  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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