Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191130 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT SITES ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MTS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER IT WILL REACH KTCC. REDUCED
VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SHRA THAT REACHES TERMINAL SITE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVERAGE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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