Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 232338 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KROW...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT IN THIS REGION...AND
CURRENT HI RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...
SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT. LOCALIZED FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORENO VALLEY...NEAR KAXX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THIS
LOCATION.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.

IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.

AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF  THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











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