Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 141152 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Westerly flow aloft during the next 24 hrs. Lcl MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys will continue across the eastern plains through 15Z.
Afternoon/evening convection will favor the southwest and south-
central mts and eastern plains. Isold strong to severe afternoon and
evening storms are possible over far east-central and northeast
plains including KTCC. Isold short-lived MVFR cigs/vsbys possible
from stronger storms.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air will overtake much of state through mid week, but not before
a round of storms later today and again on Tuesday. Storms will
focus over the Southwest Mountains and Northeast Plains later today.
The storms across the Northeast Plains may become strong to severe by
late afternoon into the evening hours. The focus for storms Tuesday
will be across the Eastern Plains, where a few storms may become
strong to severe near the Texas border. Any storms that develop
Wednesday afternoon will be across the Northeast Plains while the
rest of the area remains dry with temperatures at or slightly below
normal. High temperatures will trend up from mid to late week as high
pressure strengthens over the state and dry air remains in place.
Moisture will come back this weekend and result in an uptick in storm
coverage by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry air intrusion
progressing east across Southern California into Arizona and far west
New Mexico. Atmospheric moisture will trend down through mid week as
dry westerlies overtake the state, with the PWAT here at KABQ
forecast to drop down to between 0.40-0.50" which would be well below
normal for mid August. Before low layer moisture is scoured-out,
we`ll have a shot for storms today and Tuesday. Today`s crop will
focus over the Southwest Mountains and Northeast Plains. Storms that
develop across the Northeast Plains this afternoon/evening may become
strong to severe, with the latest NAM12 showing modest sbCAPE near
3500 J/Kg and LIs of -7 to -8C. Unimpressive 0-6km Bulk Shear of
20-30kts will not favor supercell storm structure, so we`ll likely
see multi-cell strong storms with some pulse-type severe. By Tuesday,
dry air will continue working over the state and will focus storms
almost exclusively across the Eastern Plains, where a few storms may
be strong to severe given increasing bulk shear. Dry air will
overtake most of the state by Wednesday, with any storms limited to
the far Northeast Plains.

A ridge of high pressure will build north into the state from mid to
late week, with temperatures trending up a bit and a general lack of
storms. A backdoor front will recharge moisture going into the
weekend as high pressure aloft backs off to over central Texas. At
the same time a trough will sharpen up over the California coast,
allowing moisture to advect northward around the upper high
circulation into AZ/NM leading to an uptick in storms that will
continue into early next week.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry westerly flow aloft ahead of an unseasonably deep upper level
trough moving east through the intermountain west will continue to
eat away at low level moisture across the northwest third of the
state today. Storms will favor the southwest and south-central
mountains along with the eastern plains. On Tuesday, low level
moisture gets scoured out further across all of western and much of
central NM. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will favor the
eastern Jemez, Sangres and eastern plains. Isolated strong to severe
storms are possible across eastern NM both Tuesday and Wednesday.
All but the far northeast plains will dry out by Wednesday. Dewpoint
temperatures will drop into the mid and upper 30s across the
northwest third Tuesday and across all but the eastern plains
Wednesday.

As the above mentioned upper level trough slides east through the
Central Rockies Wednesday night, a backdoor boundary is forecast to
drop into eastern NM. This front will spell the return of at least
isolated thunderstorms to much of the eastern plains Thursday. By
Friday, the subtropical/Four Corners high begins to rebuild
overhead. Rain cooled outflow from convection across the Southern
Plains states results in low level easterly flow and thunderstorms
favoring areas along and east of the central mountain chain.

GFS and ECWMF continue the idea of shifting the upper high center
southeastward over south TX by the weekend. This allows a potent
subtropical easterly wave to move up from the south and southwest,
possibly resulting in widespread storms Sunday into early next week.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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