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000
FXUS65 KABQ 081038
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
338 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

...STRONGER WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY WILL MAKE
FOR THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE ARCTIC STRETCH...

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 60-80 KNOTS WITHIN BASE OF A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA TODAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A BEAUTIFUL
SATELLITE PRESENTATION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EVIDENT OVER FAR NW/NC AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS LIKELY
PRODUCING SHORT-DURATION INTENSE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
JUST EAST-NORTHEAST OF FARMINGTON TO CHAMA AND AREAS JUST SOUTH.
CHAMA HAD 4 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF MID-EVENING SATURDAY PRIOR TO
THESE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SANGRES.

OTHERWISE...TRANSITION TO INCREASINGLY OROGRAPHIC SNOWS EXPECTED AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE EXPECTED ALONG A
SURFACE TO MID- LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
EAST- SOUTHEAST AND FAVOR WC AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DIVIDE.
COULD SEE THE REMNANTS OF THIS BAND REACH THE ABQ AREA BY MID- TO
LATE MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. OF
GREATER IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE INCREASING WIND AND COMBINED
WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT BRUTAL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
LOW CLOUDS...FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER. BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY SNOW THIS PAST
THURSDAY AND ARE WELL REMOVED FROM WHERE THE SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS
TODAY.

ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING/CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AS THE NEXT REINFORCING AND COLDEST CHUNK  OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES
SOUTH. AND IT WILL DO SO VERY SIMILAR TO HOW THE INITIAL BLAST
PLAYED OUT LAST THURSDAY. THAT IS BREAKING DOWN BOTH SIDES OF THE
DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE A BACKDOOR SEGMENT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
WEST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE
GFS HAS BEEN TARGETING A MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ALONG THE SOUTHWARD- MOVING ARCTIC REINFORCEMENT MUCH
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH COMPARED TO ITS COUNTERPARTS. ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND FOCUS MOST THEIR QPF
FROM EAST- CENTRAL INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WHERE THIS
BANDS SET UP WILL LIKELY MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A HIGH-END
ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OR NO ADVISORY. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT WITH PREVIOUS STRONG TREND TOWARD THE GFS. BOTTOM LINE...WE
ARE NOT DONE WITH SNOW IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...A BRUTALLY COLD PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES FOR SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE A
QUIET PATTERN FINALLY INDICATED INTO TUESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING
SNOW ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST. WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE THE
TURN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW A LOW LATITUDE LOW MAY EVOLVE FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. KJ



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER NM. VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED WITH
THIS COLD AIRMASS...AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. COLD FRONT IS MARCHING INTO
NORTHWEST NM AND IS CURRENTLY THROUGH FARMINGTON AND GALLUP. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EASTWARD TODAY CREATING WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST. THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED WILL
RESULT IN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALSO BECAUSE OF THE WINDS...SPECIFICALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WARM-UP TODAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MOST AREAS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE
STATE ON MONDAY AS WELL...AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS
WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SW MTNS TOWARD THE SANDIA/MANZANO
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE BACK DOOR SEGMENT
OF THE FRONT MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF...IF ANY.

WINDS DUE TO THE FRONT WILL KEEP VENT RATES IN THE GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CATEGORY MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH POOR VENTILATION
PREVAILING ACROSS THE EAST.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND POOR MIXING WILL RESULT IN POOR VENTILATION
AREAWIDE.  HOWEVER...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION
OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MIXING WILL REMAIN POOR...THUS SO WILL
VENTILATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE BEYOND
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS DIVERGE ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF STORM
SYSTEMS.   34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
IFR AND MVFR CIGS COVERAGE HAS DECREASED IN VCNTY OF RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...BUT MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP IN THIS
AREA AFTER 10Z...MUCH MORE SO THOUGH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SAF
TAF SITE SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO SCT OR AT LEAST
HIGHER CIGS BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z WITH SOME LOWERING AGAIN
THEREAFTER. SOME CIG HEIGHT RISES AT LVS AND PERHAPS ROW AFTER
11Z...BUT LESS LIKELY THAN SAF TO IMPROVE TO SCT CLOUDS. OTHERWISE
MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS LIKELY TO STAY IN PRETTY SOLID MVFR TO
IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO SCT AFTER 15Z. CIGS AND
VSBY LOWERING EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT FMN AND GUP WITH SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY MOST PEAKS
AND RANGES OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY INCREASE MODESTLY OVERNIGHT WITH GREATER INCREASES HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT STRONGER WINDS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
MORN AND AFTN SUNDAY.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  26   5  21  -1 /  30   0   5   0
DULCE...........................  23  -4  18 -16 /  40   5   5   0
CUBA............................  27   6  21  -7 /  40  10  20   0
GALLUP..........................  31   4  25  -8 /  30   5  20   0
EL MORRO........................  31   1  25 -10 /  40  10  30   5
GRANTS..........................  34   8  28  -5 /  30   5  20   0
QUEMADO.........................  38  15  29  -1 /  30   5  20   5
GLENWOOD........................  44  22  38  12 /  10   5  20   0
CHAMA...........................  19  -8  13 -16 /  60  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  30   9  23  -2 /  40  10  30   5
PECOS...........................  27   8  20  -1 /  30  10  30   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  22  -4  16 -13 /  40  10  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  17  -6  11 -16 /  60  10  20   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  21 -10  15 -18 /  50  10  20   5
TAOS............................  25   0  19 -14 /  30   5  10   0
MORA............................  26   4  20  -4 /  30   5  30   5
ESPANOLA........................  33  11  27   3 /  20   5  10   0
SANTA FE........................  28   9  21   1 /  30  10  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  31  12  24   2 /  20   5  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  36  17  30   6 /  10   5  30   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  37  20  30  10 /   5   0  30   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  39  15  32   5 /   5   0  30   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  38  18  31   9 /   5   0  30   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  42  21  34   9 /   5   0  30   0
RIO RANCHO......................  37  18  31   9 /  10   0  30   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  24  37  15 /   0   0  30   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  10  26  -3 /  30  10  40   5
TIJERAS.........................  34  12  27  -5 /  20   5  40   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  32  -1  26 -13 /  20   5  30  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  30  11  21   2 /  30   5  50  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  18  29   7 /  20   0  40  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  43  24  37  16 /  10   0  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  38  21  32  16 /  10   0  50  30
CAPULIN.........................  28   3  16   2 /  10   5  10   5
RATON...........................  29   2  20  -2 /  20   5  10   5
SPRINGER........................  31   4  21  -3 /  10   5  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  29   8  20  -1 /  20   5  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  33   6  18   7 /   5   5  10  10
ROY.............................  33   7  19   3 /   5   5  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  41  12  25   6 /   5   0  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  41  15  26  10 /   5   0  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  12  28  10 /   0   5  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  44  15  26  14 /   0   5  20  20
PORTALES........................  44  16  27  13 /   0   0  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  43  18  29  13 /   0   5  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  49  25  36  19 /   0   0  10  30
PICACHO.........................  47  24  34  17 /   0   0  30  30
ELK.............................  46  24  34  18 /   0   0  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ521>524-526>529-533-539-540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-502-504>506-511-512-515>517.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-510-513-514.

&&

$$

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