408
FXUS65 KABQ 102340 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

- Hazardous heat continues for the northwest plateau and
  Albuquerque Metro through Friday.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms across northeast and
  east central NM this evening and again Friday, with the main
  threat being damaging wind gusts.

- A backdoor front will recharge moisture and lead to an increase
  in daily rounds of storms this weekend into next week, with
  locally heavy rainfall possible. The threat for burn scar flash
  flooding will be elevated this weekend through much of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A 596dam 500mb high is centered over the northern Baja Peninsula
and extending a ridge axis over central NM, bringing drier
conditions and another day of moderate heat risk to to much of
western NM. The westerlies are intruding across northwest and
north central NM on the north side of the ridge axis and will
result in breezy/gusty conditions by mid/late afternoon given deep
layer mixing. Meanwhile across northeast NM, sufficient deep layer
shear and instability exist for a few strong to potentially severe
storms, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts into the
evening hours. Similar setup Friday, but with dry westerlies
penetrating further east into the state. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for Friday now for the Farmington area and Albuquerque
Metro, with highs forecast to reach to between 100-102 degrees.
Both 0-6km bulk shear and surface based instability are forecast
to increase slightly Friday compared to today across northeast NM
and a few strong to severe storms are more likely by afternoon,
with storms dropping southeast near the NM/TX border well into the
evening hours. The combination of a backdoor front and thunderstorm
outflow will send low level moisture west to the central mountain
chain late Friday night and result in a gusty east canyon wind
into the RGV by sunrise, though speeds are forecast to remain well
below advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

PWATs will get a nice bump across central NM on Saturday from
moist low level easterly flow. Saturday is looking rather active
now, with storms forecast to initiate along the Continental
Divide and central mountain chain. Northwest flow aloft will steer
storms slowly southeast into moist easterly low level inflow,
leading to an increased threat for locally heavy rainfall. In
addition, modest instability and 0-6km bulk shear will bring a
threat for strong to potentially severe storms to central NM
Saturday afternoon and evening. The flow aloft will change from
northwest on Saturday to northeast on Sunday as the upper high
drifts north from the Baja and expands, allowing an inverted
trough to move southwest into southeast NM. With plenty of
moisture in place, Sunday will be another active day and the
threat for burn scar flash flooding will be back on the uptrend
over the weekend. The inverted trough will get hung up over
eastern NM early next week as an upper high builds up along the
upper Gulf coast and balances out the upper high to our west. This
setup will allow for continued good chances for thunderstorms and
soaking rains given slow and erratic storm motion. Another
backdoor front will move in next Thursday and recharge moisture
for an uptrend in thunderstorms going into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Thunderstorm activity across northeast and east central NM will
move southeast towards West Texas impacting KTCC and possibly KCVS
and KCVN during the evening hours. Meanwhile, some gusty and
erratic winds are possible from virga showers and dry
thunderstorms across the middle and lower RGV, including KABQ,
KAEG, and KONM, through sunset. Lingering mid level clouds across
east central and southeast NM overnight. Another round of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms develops along the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Sacramento Mountains
early Friday afternoon drifting east-southeast across parts of
eastern NM heading into the evening hours. Potential exists for
damaging wind gusts and large hail from these thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, some breezy west winds across northwest NM, including
KFMN and KGUP, with peak gusts of 25 to 30 kts expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will prevail
through Friday across northwest NM due to deep layer mixing of the
westerlies and hot daytime temperatures. Otherwise, critical fire
weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days as
moisture increases over the weekend and brings a resurgence of
chances for wetting storms going through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59 100  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  93  45  90 /   0   0  10  40
Cuba............................  58  93  56  89 /   0   0   5  30
Gallup..........................  53  95  50  94 /   5   0   0   5
El Morro........................  56  91  54  91 /  10   0   0  20
Grants..........................  57  96  54  92 /   5   0   0  20
Quemado.........................  61  92  57  91 /  20   0   5  20
Magdalena.......................  68  94  63  89 /  10   5   5  40
Datil...........................  63  91  60  88 /  10   0   5  40
Reserve.........................  57  97  54  96 /  20  10  10  30
Glenwood........................  63 102  60 100 /  20  10   5  40
Chama...........................  48  86  47  82 /   0   0  10  60
Los Alamos......................  63  89  60  81 /   0  10  10  60
Pecos...........................  58  89  56  79 /  10  20  20  70
Cerro/Questa....................  54  87  52  81 /   5  20  30  70
Red River.......................  46  78  44  71 /  10  30  40  70
Angel Fire......................  40  81  40  72 /  10  30  30  70
Taos............................  50  90  52  83 /   0  20  20  60
Mora............................  52  84  49  74 /  10  30  30  70
Espanola........................  60  97  59  90 /   0   0  10  50
Santa Fe........................  63  92  60  84 /   5  10  20  60
Santa Fe Airport................  60  95  59  87 /   5  10  10  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  97  68  92 /  10   0  10  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  69 100  67  94 /  10   0  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  68 102  67  97 /  10   0   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68 100  68  94 /  10   0   5  30
Belen...........................  67 101  65  96 /  10   0   5  20
Bernalillo......................  66 101  65  95 /  10   0  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  65 101  65  96 /  10   0   5  20
Corrales........................  67 102  67  96 /  10   0   5  30
Los Lunas.......................  66 101  65  96 /  10   0   5  20
Placitas........................  67  96  65  90 /  10   0  10  40
Rio Rancho......................  67 101  67  94 /  10   0   5  30
Socorro.........................  72 104  69  98 /  10   0   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  91  59  86 /  10   0  10  50
Tijeras.........................  63  93  61  87 /  10   0  10  50
Edgewood........................  58  93  56  85 /  10   5  10  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  94  55  85 /  10   5  10  50
Clines Corners..................  58  87  56  76 /  20  10  10  60
Mountainair.....................  61  92  57  85 /  20   0  10  50
Gran Quivira....................  61  92  58  85 /  20   5  10  50
Carrizozo.......................  68  97  65  89 /  20  10  10  50
Ruidoso.........................  63  89  58  81 /  20  20  10  60
Capulin.........................  53  81  52  71 /  50  40  70  70
Raton...........................  53  86  53  77 /  30  40  50  70
Springer........................  54  88  55  78 /  20  40  40  70
Las Vegas.......................  54  86  52  76 /  20  30  20  70
Clayton.........................  61  90  60  78 /  60  20  60  40
Roy.............................  56  86  57  75 /  30  30  40  50
Conchas.........................  62  93  63  84 /  30  10  40  50
Santa Rosa......................  62  91  62  82 /  30  10  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  62  92  61  81 /  30   5  40  30
Clovis..........................  66  94  65  85 /  30  10  40  30
Portales........................  66  94  65  87 /  30  10  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  66  95  65  87 /  20   5  20  20
Roswell.........................  71 100  70  92 /  20  10   5  20
Picacho.........................  66  94  63  87 /  10  20   5  40
Elk.............................  65  94  60  85 /  10  20   5  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-207-219.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...71