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000
FXUS65 KABQ 052344
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
444 PM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS AROUND CVN AND CVS UNTIL 02Z WILL
BE THE HIGHEST SPEEDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MST WED MAR 5 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.
MUCH WARMER EAST...LESS SO WEST THURSDAY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN. THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AT THIS TIME LOOKING TO SEE THE MOST SNOW.
A TWO DAY QUIETER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
THU AFTN HIGHS 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM MOST SPOTS. QUIET
PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND MTN SNOW MAINLY FRI INTO SAT...FAVORING THE AS IT LOOKS NOW
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE FCST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD A LITTLE LESS INTENSE SOLUTION FOR THIS NEXT
INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER...MEANING A DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOCALES.
HAVING SAID THAT...THESE SOUTHEAST BOUND SHORT WAVES THAT
INITIALLY ARE FORECASTED TO DEEPEN SHARPLY COMING INTO THE DESERT
SW OFTEN GO THROUGH A NUMBER OF FLIP FLOPS...BETWEEN MUCH LOWER
AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS TRACKING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH VS THOSE THAT DROP
ALMOST DUE S OR EVEN RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WHILE DEEPENING
SHARPLY...BEFORE THE PICTURE BECOME MUCH CLEARER. BUT THAT CLARITY
SOMETIMES STILL GETS UPENDED AS CLOSE IN AS 12 OR 24 HOURS PRIOR
TO PRECIP ONSET DUE TO SUDDEN FORECASTED CHANGES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY. SO GIVEN ALL THAT...AND WITH MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A LITTLE MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SCENARIO WITH THE
LEADING SHORT WAVE AND A LITTLE MORE BAGGY...LESS DYNAMICALLY
ACTIVE...FOLLOW UP SYSTEM DECIDED TO LOWER POPS CHANCES SOME IN
THE WEST FRI AND WAS TEMPTED TO FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
PROPENSITY FOR THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS TO CONFOUND THE MODELS...EVEN
AT TIMES AFTER COMING INTO WHAT SEEMS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
AWHILE...DECIDED TO KEEP MOST OF THE TWEAKS MUTED TILL WE GET A
LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT. DID SIGNIFICANTLY BUMP UP QPF
FOR THE SANGRES EASTWARD FOR THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW ACCUM THERE. MAY THOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASE
THOSE AMTS AFTER THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE AND BEFORE MOST OF REST OF
PRODUCTS. ALSO ADDED SOME MORE SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN
COVERAGE FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THICKNESS VALUES AND
700 MB TEMPS CONSIDERATIONS. SPS WAS ISSUED FOR THIS END OF WEEK
SYSTEM...BUT TOO EARLY AND UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT
RIGHT NOW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK QUIET WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SIMILAR SYSTEM A
POSS AGAIN TUE TO WED PERIOD. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...LOW HUMIDITIES AND WESTERLY GUSTS
WITH HAINES INDICES IN THE 4 TO 5 RANGE DEVELOPING LOCALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ARRIVING SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD. PLAUSIBLE AND ACCEPTED CONSENSUS MOVES RIDGE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...AS NEXT UPSTREAM NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY AND
DIG TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND THEN ELONGATE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO ALONG A ST LOUIS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AXIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH
UPSTREAM POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM INBOUND OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DIG TO THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS EVOLVING FEATURE GOING
FORWARD...AS EUROPEAN ECMWF DEEPENS TROUGH SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AND MOVING THIS FEATURE INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND NEXT AMPLIFYING WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY.
DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO
TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOPPY AND
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS BY
FRIDAY. TOUGH TO PICK A CLEAR WINNER PAST TUESDAY...BUT COMMON
THREAD WILL BE TROUGHS WITH BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER ARIZONA WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER WITH GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO FOR A DAY OF SOLID
WARMING. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH
NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEST. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO WILL SET UP USUAL ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO SANTA
ROSA...AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS PCT HERE WILL PRODUCE AN HOUR
OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOCALLY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WITH FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT IN MUCH DRYER AIR MASS.

FOR FRIDAY...NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY MORNING AND BROADEN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS BORDER FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WINDY DAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY...AND BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHBOUND
COLD FRONT OVER THE EAST. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT...EASING AND REDUCING FIRE WEATHER
SEVERITY FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
MEXICO. SHOWER COVERAGE TAKING OVER NORTH AND WEST...WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST...AND RAIN COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS
THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SETTING
UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND EXPANDING
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT VENTILATION WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...ROUND BOTTOMED TROUGH SPRAWLED OVER NEW MEXICO AS
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SURFACE WINDS
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON THE DAY. TURNING SHARPLY
COLDER STATEWIDE...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE COLD DEPARTURES FROM EARLY
MARCH NORMALS OVER THE EAST..AND 6 TO 12 COLD DEPARTURES OVER THE
WEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH UP SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FAVORING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION EXTENSION SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. TROUGH WILL ELONGATE FROM CLOSED LOW IN SONORA
NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRODUCING GRADUAL
SHOWER TAPERING OVER THE NORTH...AND LINGERING SHOWER COVERAGE
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTH. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S PCT...WITH SOME 20S PCT SHOWING UP OVER
THE WESTERN MARGINS OF THE STATE. GENERALLY FAVORABLE VENTILATION
WITH CONTINUED GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE MID MARCH NORMALS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT COLD PUSH ARRIVES OVER THE NORTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY. POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON NORTHWEST MARGINS OF SLOPPY HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE HEART OF TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST STATES WILL MOVE
GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST...BRINGING MORE OF ITS DYNAMIC INFLUENCE
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS COLD PLUNGE WORKS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND
NEXT INBOUND PACIFIC SYSTEM REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS PCT. BREEZIEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHY

&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$