Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 161800 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Westerly flow aloft will persist over New Mexico with an upstream
trough over the far western states. This will keep a dry airmass
over New Mexico with very little potential for thunderstorms today
and this evening. A weak surface boundary is flirting with eastern
New Mexico, and should push a bit farther into the plains this
evening. Low layer moisture may then creep up into southeastern New
Mexico before dawn Thursday. MVFR/IFR ceilings would be possible
near KCVS, but do not anticipate these to spread as far west as KROW
or as far north as KTCC. Better moisture in the plains will then lead
to isolated to scattered storms Thursday afternoon with strong to
severe cells possible.



.PREV DISCUSSION...259 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017...
A dry day is on tap, with the only shot at storms confined to the far
Northeast Plains late day. Moisture will come back to portions of
eastern New Mexico Thursday and result in isolated storms by
afternoon. Friday will be the hottest day of the next seven, with
daytime temperatures above normal. Moisture will stream north from
Mexico through the weekend and result in increasing chances for
storms and decreasing daytime temperatures. The atmosphere over New
Mexico will be moisture-loaded by Monday, with good chances for
storms and daytime temperatures below normal continuing into Tuesday.


A dry air intrusion is working over the state under the base of an
upper level trough ejecting out of the southern Rockies into the
central/southern U.S. Plains. A shortwave ridge will follow behind it
today, with the only shot at storms confined to the far Northeast
Plains. Moisture will return to portions of eastern New Mexico
Thursday and result in a round of late day storm, with some possibly
severe near the Texas Border. A dry airmass will continue across
western New Mexico Thursday.

The upper high is forecast to shift/build northwest directly over the
state Friday to near 593dam at 500mb. Friday will be the hottest of
the next seven, with high temperatures generally above normal. Storm
coverage will be limited Friday and generally relegated to the
Eastern Plains and South Central Mountains.

The upper high will begin to shift back to the southeast Saturday,
opening the door for a more traditional monsoonal moisture plume to
flow north from Mexico going into Sunday as an upper level trough
develops/deepens near southern California. Look for PWATs to trend
up over the weekend and generally be above normal by Sunday, then
continue above normal into Tuesday. The spike in PWATs will be
accompanied by good chances for storms and below normal daytime
temperatures. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF latch onto an easterly wave
and bring it north around the upper high circulation into New Mexico,
but differ on the timing. This added upper air feature may enhance
rain chances across southwest and central New Mexico at some point
Sunday or Monday as the Monsoon looks to take a turn for the wetter.



Today will likely be the first day since early July with no
lightning/thunderstorms across NM. Dry air on the south side of two
unseasonably deep upper level troughs over the central Rockies and
western Great Basin will keep all but a few clouds from developing
today. Dewpoint temperatures will drop into the 20 and low 30s
across the western three quarters of the state this afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will return to northeast NM
Thursday as dewpoint temperatures rise behind a backdoor
front/boundary dropping in from southeast CO. A few thunderstorms
are possible across the eastern plains Friday as the low level flow
there becomes southeasterly, transporting in Gulf of Mexico moisture.

By Saturday, the southerly flow at all levels between a
subtropical/Four Corners high over TX and a weak trough/low over
southern CA begins to draw up monsoon moisture from the south.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase areawide Sunday and
especially Monday as deep moisture streams north and combines with
several warm core upper level troughs/waves.

Models agree that the active weather pattern continues through
Thursday before dry westerly start drying out western and central
areas Friday.





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