Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 231752 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1152 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A high impact weather event is taking shape as several bands of
SHRA/TSRA will impact NM thru tonight. The biggest forecast
challenge is timing the main impact windows with these bands as
individual cells move rapidly northeast, while the bands themselves
move slowly east. The most significant impacts will continue to be
over eastern NM including KROW, KTCC, and KLVS. Storms with heavy
rainfall will repeatedly go over the same areas, so long duration
MVFR to IFR impacts are likely at KLVS, KTCC and KROW through
tonight. Clearing is shown by guidance to shift slowly eastward
tonight from western NM into the Rio Grande Valley, with the clearing
trend moving across the east Sunday mid to late morning. If the
clearing is faster, KLVS could get dense fog starting around 09z, and
around 12z at KTCC and KROW Sunday. Much drier everywhere Sunday
afternoon with VFR conditions, aside from possible MVFR CIGS right at
the TX border in a heavier shower or thunderstorm through early/mid
afternoon. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and storms expected today over eastern New Mexico,
capable of producing heavy downpours and flash flooding concerns.
Storm activity will slide east into western Texas Sunday, leaving
most of New Mexico fairly dry. A cold front will lower temperatures
and bring in much drier air across the west, allowing for a few spots
to see near freezing temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings across
the west. A backdoor front arrives Monday, reigniting the chance for
afternoon storms across the east and central mountain chain. Highs
will be below normal through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper low remains situated over the Great Basin this morning with
southerly flow continuing to bring up increased sfc moisture into
New Mexico. A strong baroclinic zone where a rather potent jet max
will be rotating around this upper low, sliding E over New Mexico,
will combine with the increased sfc moisture to produce numerous to
widespread showers and storms over much of eastern New Mexico,
starting as early as later this morning. There`ve already been a few
storms pushing N into southeastern NM early this morning.

Storm motion is expected to be rather quick to the N, with storms
capable of producing brief heavy downpours. The widespread coverage
of storms and potential for storms to train over the same area has
prompted a Flash Flood Watch for much of eastern New Mexico this
afternoon into Sunday morning. Storm coverage will gradually shift
east into western Texas by Sunday morning.

A cold front will push through western NM Sunday lowering overnight
lows well below average across the west. Much drier air will also
flow into western NM allowing a few spots across the NW to see near
freezing lows Sunday and Monday mornings. A backdoor front will
slide into eastern and central NM Monday allowing for another round
of afternoon storms across the east. There remains timing differences
with the NAM12 more bullish pushing the front to the continental
divide Monday evening, while the GFS doesn`t push past the ctrl mtns
until Tuesday. The NAM12 solution would push storm chances further
west Monday, while the GFS will be limited to the central mtn chain
at the furthest. Took a split between the two for PoPs Monday
afternoon, so PoPs for the RGV could trend further up or down
depending on future model consistency.

The upper low will open and move off to the NE Monday into Tuesday,
with a leftover shortwave appendage deepening and forming its own
closed low somewhere over the CA/AZ border by Wednesday. This will
keep Gulf moisture flowing into southern NM through the end of next
week, and with the chance for afternoon storms. The better chances
will remain over the southern high terrain while the northern mtns
will see slightly less coverage. Daytime highs will be below avg
through the week, while overnight lows will rebound back to above
normal areawide by Wednesday morning.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture is surging north across central and eastern NM ahead of an
approaching upper level wave today. Widespread showers and storms
are already developing from the Rio Grande Valley eastward into the
plains. Rainfall amounts will range from a 0.10-0.30" within the
central valley to between 2 and 5" across eastern NM, thus leading
to significantly better soil moisture than the past couple weeks.
Meanwhile, a potent dry slot within the base of the upper wave will
be arriving over western NM this afternoon.

Lingering showers and storms over eastern NM Sunday morning will be
shoved east by the approaching dry slot. Humidities will trend much
drier as dewpoints fall into the teens as far east as the central mt
chain. A lack of stronger winds and cooler temps Sunday will the
limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions. Dry air, clear
skies, and light winds Sunday night will lead to the coldest temps
of the season so far for central and western NM. Widespread freezing
temps are likely for all the high terrain and elevated plateaus and
valleys of northern and western NM.

Monday will feature much of the same for western NM with very low
humidity and slight afternoon breezes. A back door cold front will
surge westward across eastern NM and arrive within the Rio Grande
Valley by late day. Another round of showers and storms is expected
across the central high terrain and portions of eastern NM. Moisture
will attempt to surge west across the Cont Divide Tuesday morning
while another upper level wave takes shape over the Great Basin.

Extended guidance continues to struggle with the placement and
duration of the impacts of the second upper wave. Despite model
differences the overall message will be that of increasing chances
of showers and storms over NM with higher humidity, thicker cloud
cover, and cooler temps through the end of next week.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ526-530>540.

&&

$$



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