Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 042113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO NEAR-
STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GILA
REGION...WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. AFTER 19 OR
20Z EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY STRONG
GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IN A FEW CASES SMALL
HAIL...IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES GUP...SAF...LVS...ABQ AND AEG
AND AFTER APPROX 22Z VICINITY OF FMN. GENERALLY TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FIRST MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING OFF TOWARD ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER TSRA MOTION
LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW AND RATHER ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. EXPECT
MVFR IMPACTS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSS WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. AT LEAST
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE
NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUN. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  86  64  84 /  40  20  30  30
DULCE...........................  55  79  54  79 /  60  50  40  40
CUBA............................  56  79  55  78 /  60  60  50  50
GALLUP..........................  59  81  57  80 /  50  30  30  40
EL MORRO........................  56  80  55  80 /  70  50  40  40
GRANTS..........................  59  84  58  84 /  50  50  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  58  79  57  81 /  60  50  20  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  81  58  85 /  50  40  30  30
CHAMA...........................  52  72  51  71 /  60  60  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  80  60  79 /  60  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  58  80  58  78 /  60  50  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  74  53  70 /  60  40  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  49  65  49  61 /  70  40  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  69  51  64 /  70  60  70  70
TAOS............................  56  80  54  77 /  40  40  50  60
MORA............................  55  76  55  72 /  60  60  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  61  86  59  86 /  40  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  61  79  60  79 /  50  40  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  84  60  83 /  40  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  87  65  88 /  50  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  91  66  93 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  92  66  95 /  40  30  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  90  66  93 /  30  20  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  67  91  65  92 /  50  30  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  67  92  66  95 /  30  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  83  60  85 /  50  60  50  30
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  61  88 /  50  50  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  86  57  86 /  40  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  82  59  82 /  50  50  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  83  60  86 /  30  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  87  63  88 /  30  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  59  79  60  79 /  30  50  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  59  81  60  73 /  20  20  30  70
RATON...........................  58  84  58  77 /  20  10  30  60
SPRINGER........................  60  86  61  81 /  20  20  30  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  80  57  76 /  30  50  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  91  64  84 /  10   5  20  70
ROY.............................  63  85  62  82 /  10   5  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  68  95  68  91 /  10   5  20  60
SANTA ROSA......................  67  92  67  91 /  10   5  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  95  69  92 /  10   5  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  66  91  67  89 /   5   5  20  30
PORTALES........................  67  92  68  90 /   5   5  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  92  68  92 /   5   5  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  68  94  69  98 /   5   5  20  20
PICACHO.........................  63  89  64  91 /  10  20  30  30
ELK.............................  61  81  62  82 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.