Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181717 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1017 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A cold front has invaded New Mexico with a dry, cooler air mass left
behind in its wake. Some northerly breezes are still gusty in
portions of the eastern plains, but these should diminish into the
mid afternoon. A clear, cold night is expected tonight with VFR
conditions persisting. Moderate southerly breezes will then
develop in the eastern plains of New Mexico Sunday afternoon.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...241 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will move across eastern NM today bringing
significantly cooler temperatures to northern and central NM. Highs
east of the central mountains will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
and near normal to 5 degrees below normal to the west. Northwest flow
aloft will bring a very dry air to the region today through Sunday.
Temperatures will moderate slightly Sunday, as the coolest core of
air slides to the east. High pressure aloft will build across NM
Monday with temperatures returning to well above normal. A weak
backdoor cold front will cool down the eastern plains to near normal
Tuesday. High pressure aloft will strengthen Wednesday through
Friday with dry and unseasonably mild weather expected.

28

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A sharp trough over far northeastern NM and the adjacent western
high plains will move rapidly eastward today. Behind this system
gusty winds and light precipitation will diminish around daybreak.
The wind advisory for portions of central mountains and northeastern
NM and the winter weather advisory for the Tusas Mountains and
adjacent highlands will be allowed to expire at 12Z and 13Z,
respectively. A Pacific cold front will move into eastern NM during
the post-dawn hours and it will be followed by a backdoor cold front
which will move from eastern NM this morning to the central
mountains by late this afternoon. Winds associated with these cold
fronts will gust to near 35 mph this morning, before diminishing to
less than 25 mph by mid afternoon. A very dry and noticeably cooler
air mass will settle over NM today with highs as much as 10 below
normal in the eastern half of the state and as much as 5 degrees
below normal across the western half. Surface high pressure will
extend from the central Rockies to west TX tonight. This area of high
pressure will produce light winds and clear skies, and strong
radiational cooling will produce a cold night across the region.
Temperatures will be below freezing across the entire area, and lows
in the higher valleys in northern and western NM will drop into the
single numbers. The flow aloft will veer to the west Sunday, allowing
milder air to move into the region. Highs Sunday will still be
several degrees below normal in the southeast plains, but will return
to above normal across the rest of the region.

The large ridge across the western U.S. will amplify Monday and
milder air will build across northern and central NM with continued
dry weather. A weak backdoor cold front will cool down the eastern
plains slightly, but highs will still be slightly above normal. A
strong upper level high centered over northern Baja CA will
strengthen and expand eastward Wednesday and Thursday, bringing
unseasonable mild weather to NM. The upper high will weaken Friday,
as a series of weak disturbances from the eastern Pacific move
eastward across the central great Basin and across the central
Rockies. Despite this weakening, unusually high 500 millibar heights
and west flow aloft will produce continued mild and dry weather
across the Southwest.

28

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The cold front is currently pushing south across central New Mexico,
with much a much colder and drier airmass filling-in behind it.
PWATs are forecast to tumble to well below normal today, down to
between 0.05-0.10 inch. This is reflected in the dewpoint
temperature forecast, with some negative single digits showing up
across the western mountains/highlands by late day. Vent rates will
be poor across much of central and western New Mexico today behind
the front, but will be good to excellent across the Eastern Plains
where winds will stay up much of the day. Cold air advection will
bring below normal temperatures today and tonight, with the
Middle/Lower Rio Grande Valley seeing the first widespread freeze of
the season.

A warm-up will begin Sunday and continue through much of next week,
with only a weak backdoor front Monday night into Tuesday moderating
temperatures briefly across the Eastern Plains. Temperatures will be
back above normal areawide by Monday afternoon. Vent rates will take
a dive mid to late week as a large and dominant ridge of high
pressure builds over the Desert Southwest, with anomalously high
pressure heights forecast over New Mexico. This will lead to a
stable atmosphere, despite the above to well above normal
temperatures. Winds will be on the uptrend late in the week and into
next weekend as the ridge dampens and the westerlies punch-in.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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