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000
FXUS65 KABQ 161804 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1204 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS FAVORED FOR SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE W MTNS S
OF I-40 DUE TO MODEST MOISTURE THAT HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...THE S CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD FOR THE SAME REASON AND THE
NE PLAINS ALONG AND E OF RATON PASS DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
SPOTTIER. LOOK FOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS...WITH THE
DRIER MICROBURSTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND WETTER
MICROBURSTS FAVORING THE FAR E PLAINS AS CONVECTION FINALLY
ARRIVES THERE THIS EVENING. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE
MOISTURE AS IT BANKS UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE SE PLAINS COULD SEE PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE
OF TS MONDAY WITH SCT ACTIVITY FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD
AND SPOTTIER DRIER CELLS FARTHER W TO THE CONTDVD.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013...
CURRENTLY...WEAK RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO WITH SURFACE HIGH PARKED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ANCHORS TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO EXTREME WEST TEXAS.
PERTURBATIONS IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WORKING WITH SOME MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNRISE.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK...THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF THE FOLLOWING WORK
WEEK. PLAUSIBLE CONSENSUS FLATTENS RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHEAST PACIFIC DISTURBANCE COILS UP OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST.
AS RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDWEEK...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. SYSTEM WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES AS RIDGE CORE OVER TEXAS
STRENGTHENS...AND THIS ACTION WILL HALT ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK BAGGY
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH
STRONG RIDGE CORE REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...TROUGH WILL
HAVE LITTLE SUCCESS IN MOVING VERY FAR TOWARD THE STATE.

FOR TODAY...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STATEWIDE WITH ALL SPOTS IN THE
RUNNING FOR A LITTLE MOISTURE BY THIS EVENING...AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR WETTING RAINS OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS NEAR
THE MOISTURE SOURCE ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MID JUNE NORMALS...WITH
MODEST WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL
SHIFTING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST...WITH BACKING TO
SOUTHERLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. CONVECTION WILL
REDUCE IN INTENSITY BUT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...MUCH AS IT
DID ON SATURDAY.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS COOLER AIR
PENETRATES THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AND SLOSHES WESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
IMPROVED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEST...MUCH DRYER CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMING
SPOTTY...AND CONFINED TO SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MOVING WESTWARD. COOLER IN THE EAST...BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. EASTERN
CONVECTION PLUS EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
MAY PRODUCE SOME MONDAY NIGHT GAP FLOW INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WITH SOME BREEZES IN THE WEE HOURS TAPERING OFF BY
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE FLATTENING WILL ESTABLISH MORE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RUNNING
BETWEEN THERMAL LOW OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. NET EFFECT
WILL VEER WINDS TO SOUTHERLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AND THIS MAY HELP
MAINTAIN A DRY LINE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
AN EASTERN DEAL...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP EASTERN TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MID
JUNE NORMALS...AND RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKING FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST AS
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OCEAN AND ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TROUGH DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO EXTREME WEST TEXAS WILL HELP VEER
SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP BOOST WIND SPEEDS BROADLY ACROSS THE
STATE...AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN SPOTS NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AND
OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MAY CREATE SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE MID JUNE NORMALS FOR THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING INCREASINGLY TURBULENT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH RIDGE CORE
BUILDING INTO NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL WILL KEEP
THE PERIOD BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AND IN THE
EAST...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SPOTTY HIGH COUNTRY THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY WITH SOMEWHAT BROADER COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...AND BACK TO SPOTTY HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY.

SHY

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED AND THU...

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING.  REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREWN ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  AREA DEW POINTS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALL INDICATE MOISTURE CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

WITH THIS MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
INITIATING FIRST ON THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTH ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST.
CONVECTION WILL ALSO INITIATE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESS.  CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY.  MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ASSIST IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.

THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE IN
SOUTHEAST NM.  DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT
MANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TOWARDS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE OF THE DRY THUNDERSTORM VARIETY AND
PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTING FROM 15 TO
25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
PLAINS AS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND INCREASES LEVEL MOISTURE
IN ITS WAKE. CURRENT MODEL RUNS BACK OFF ON GAP WINDS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...A WEAK EASTERLY GAP
WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LESS
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO PUSH MUCH BEYOND WEST SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.  ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
IS LIKELY TO BE THE DRY THUNDERSTORM VARIETY.

FORECAST ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS INCREASING AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NW US CAUSING
WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW MEXICO.  AT THE SAME TIME A
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BOTH DAYS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS FAVORING THE AREA EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. WESTERN AREAS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CRITICALLY
LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP FROM THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD WEDNESDAY. THESE MINIMUM RH VALES WILL BE
EVEN LOWER ON THURSDAY AS THEY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THURSDAY. HAINES INDICES OF 6 WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.  THE
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL
NM AND EXTEND NE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON FRIDAY WITH AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.

01

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$