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000
FXUS65 KABQ 091131 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
429 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013

CORRECTED FIRE WX DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SPATIALLY
AND TEMPORALLY BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS COMING IN DRIER
AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS ALREADY EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST OR WILL DO SO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WE ESSENTIALLY KEPT THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EAST
CENTRAL AND PLAINS LOCATIONS THAT MAY ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW.
THIS PRECIP SHOULD COME MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND RIGHT AROUND
RUSH HOUR...POTENTIALLY MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. SNOW REPORTS
AROUND 1 INCH AND PERSISTENT ECHOES ON RADAR SUGGEST THE SANTA FE
METRO AREA MAY HAVE THE MOST HAZARDOUS COMMUTE THIS MORNING...SO
WE ARE KEEPING THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT THERE TOO. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 13
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST TO AS MUCH AS 31 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH FROM AROUND
CLINES CORNERS NORTHWESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS...RESULTING IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS VARYING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NW
MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD WITH READINGS IN
THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ESTANCIA VALLEY...AND FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE TEENS
ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS
READINGS ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DISTANCES
ITSELF FROM THE FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MID WEEK UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL AGAIN AS
MUCH AS 9 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN
WAVE WHILE EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS NM FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A BETTER MOISTURE TAP OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAN
THE GFS DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MODELS DUE GENERALLY
AGREE THAT WESTERN...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WELL OVER A
WEEK...TEMPERATURES MAY REACH WITHIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS THIS SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTH
ACROSS NM QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE BAJA SYSTEM. MODELS DONT
CURRENTLY DEPICT MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS COULD WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED BY MID MORNING BUT RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE
LIGHT/HIGH SNOW RATIO VARIETY SO NOT A LOT OF LIQUID WATER. WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS. DUE TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE MIXING HEIGHTS ACTUALLY
LOOK PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS BUT WILL BE QUITE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SINCE
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE PRETTY STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
VENTILATION WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THERE.

A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT/INTRUSION WILL FLOW IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. WENT A LITTLE LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE ON
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT DESPITE SOME ANTICIPATED MELTING
SNOW. SNOW MELT OR SUBLIMATION WILL PROVE PROBLEMATIC IN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE HEATS UP SOME. DESPITE SOME
WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEST.
BOTTOMLINE...COOLER CONDITIONS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LOWER
HUMIDITY DAY AND COINCIDES WITH THE VERY STRONG DRY SLOT OVERHEAD.
THE DRY SLOT WILL WEAKEN SOME ON WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES
TO CLIMB. THE INVERSION WILL BE QUITE STRONG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE ON
THE LOW SIDE WITH DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE MOST OF THE PERIOD. EITHER
WAY...VENTILATION RATES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AND REMAIN
PRETTY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY.

A PIECE OF PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO BREAK OFF FROM THE
PARENT TROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BE A
PLAYER...WEATHERWISE...FOR NEW MEXICO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE BAJA LOW EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY UP OVER ARIZONA
ON THURSDAY. THIS MEANS SOME SORT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR
AHEAD OF IT AND START TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. THE LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRACK OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS ISNT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE BIT MORE COVERAGE BUT STILL
NOT REAL HEAVY ON LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. EITHER WAY...EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF THE LOW PASSAGE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MOST LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST AND PERHAPS SOME HIGHER NORTH CENTRAL MTN TERRAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGHER RIDGES
AND EASTERN PLAINS. VENTILATION RATES WILL RESPOND BY INITIALLY
INCREASING OVER THE WEST AND PERHAPS SANGRE DE CRISTOS THURSDAY AND
THEN THE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TRANSITION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSED LOW NATURE
TO THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FMN AND THE NORTHERNMOST NM COUNTIES
...BUT SCT MVFR AND VERY LOCALLY IFR CIGS ACROSS REST OF N AND
CENTRAL NM AS A FEW BANDS OF -SN MOVE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z....IMPROVING A FEW HOURS SOONER WESTERN AREAS.
BUT TO E OF THE DIVIDE THE LOWER TERRAIN WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
MORE OFTEN THAN NOT. TAF SITES MORE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW VFR
LEVELS INCLUDE GUP AND TO A LESSER DEGREE SAF...LVS AND ROW.
EXPECT MOST MT RANGES AND PEAKS TO BE LARGELY
OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY S OF A NARBONA PASS TO CIMARRON LINE...INTO
AT LEAST MIDDAY MON. NEARLY ALL AREAS TO BE IN...OR IMPROVE
TO...VFR CATEGORY BY MID AFTN MON.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  18  -1  24   6 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  16 -18  27  -4 /  10   0   0   0
CUBA............................  17  -3  31   6 /  20   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  21  -7  30   3 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  21 -12  33   6 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  24  -4  35   7 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  25   2  36  11 /  20   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  40  13  46  19 /  20   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   9 -15  26  -7 /  10   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  19   3  27   8 /  20   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  17   4  30  10 /  30   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  11 -11  24  -2 /  10   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................   8 -12  28   6 /  20   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  11 -17  29  -1 /  20   0   0   5
TAOS............................  16 -11  28   2 /  10   0   0   0
MORA............................  19   1  37   7 /  20   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  23   4  32  11 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  16   2  25  10 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  21   3  25  12 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26   7  33  13 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  28  10  32  18 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  29   7  33  18 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29   8  36  18 /  20   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  30  11  33  19 /  20   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  10  35  17 /  20   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  36  13  37  19 /  20   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24   3  34  13 /  40   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  26   4  31  13 /  30   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  24 -10  30   8 /  60   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  21   4  28  13 /  60   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  29   9  32  16 /  50   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  36  15  39  22 /  20   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  32  17  41  25 /  30   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  16   1  36  10 /  20   0   0   0
RATON...........................  19  -2  38  10 /  20   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  20   0  41  10 /  20   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  21   3  38  12 /  40   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  19   8  39  14 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  19   5  38  13 /  40   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  26   6  39  13 /  60   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  28   9  40  18 /  60   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  30   8  42  15 /  60   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  28  12  39  19 /  30   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  28  13  39  19 /  30   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  13  42  18 /  60   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  34  19  41  23 /  20   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  32  17  42  23 /  20   5   5   0
ELK.............................  36  19  43  26 /  30   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ518-521>524-529-531>537-539.

&&

$$

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