Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 181755 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1055 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...446 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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