National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KABQ 130936
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RELATIVELY
WEAK UPPER LOW CROSSES FROM THE WEST. A COLDER SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH WITH A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT AND
SOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST STORM SYSTEM WEST OF NM DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE
EARLY THIS MORNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ITS TRYING TO POOL A
PATCH OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA OVER AZ...BUT THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVELY BROAD DRY
SLOT BEGINNING TO FEED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
POPS HAVE BEEN MODEST FOR NM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TOO.
MODELS ONLY PROG 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND -2C FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WE CHOSE LOWER SNOW RATIOS. THE END RESULT
IS ABOUT HALF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FROM
PREVIOUS SHIFTS. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR 4 INCHES OF SNOW...AND AN ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED THERE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CO. NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER A
BROAD AREA SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W AND NW OF THE PECOS RIVER TO AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE
MOUNT TAYLOR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIVE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE SHORT DWELL TIME SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
TO THE EAST COULD SEE A FEW INCHES.

AFTER HIGH TEMPS ROUGHLY 7 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...READINGS SHOULD PLUNGE A FEW TO 13
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
MONDAY. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SW LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO BE SQUASHED BY A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES EJECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SHOULD PASS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N FOR
NM WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR TWO
WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE NORTHEAST AND
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES ON SAT.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES TODAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATES EAST OUT OF CA AND
INTO AZ. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND IN NM...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE RH WILL BE LOWEST AT BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED. WITH HAINES INDICES OF ONLY LOW TO
MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST NM. LITTLE WETTING PRECIPITATION WITH THESE CELLS AND A
FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A CONCERN.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES AND SPREADS EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE AND MOVES OVER NM. STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS HANDLING OF THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WETTING PRECIP
POTENTIAL VARIES AS WELL. WE EXPECT OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ONTO THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND PRECIPITATION THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL ONLY BE A
CONCERN IN THE GILA REGION...BUT RH VALUES WILL BE MUCH TO HIGH FOR
ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

NEXT STORM TO FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE...AS IT
DIVES ALMOST DUE SOUTH INTO NM THIS WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION. GFS MOST
BULLISH ON QPF AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN NM SATURDAY
AND KEEPS IT CLOSED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WOULD GET
PULLED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCENARIO AND PRODUCE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS
A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NM LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS...BUT THE WEST WOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY. THE NAM AND CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE EASTWARD
TRACK THAT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FAR EAST. WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER
SYSTEM WE WILL HEDGE TOWARD THESE MODELS. OF MORE CONCERN SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. IT WILL BE WINDY FROM THE NW PLATEAU TO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS. LIMITING FACTORS MAY BE THE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS AND VERY LOW TO MODERATE HAINES VALUES. WILL HOLD OFF
ON A WATCH FOR NOW...BUT STAY TUNED. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL LESS WIND. BREEZY IN
THE EAST THOUGH WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH INCREASING
BREEZES EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THE NEXT SHOT AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS AFTER SATURDAY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT VENT RATE CONCERNS ASIDE FROM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRI...THOUGH SOME HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NM AND ALSO MOVING IN FROM
THE SW. EXPECT BREEZY SFC WINDS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN
NM BY THU AFTN AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. ALSO...AFTER ROUGHLY 20Z THU THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH
BASED VIRGA ACROSS W CENTRAL AND NW NM WHICH MAY CREATE SOME BRIEF
AND VERY LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KTS.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  32  61  29 /  10  20  20   5
DULCE...........................  58  26  55  24 /  10  30  40  10
CUBA............................  59  27  53  25 /  10  40  60  10
GALLUP..........................  59  27  55  21 /  20  50  40  10
EL MORRO........................  54  24  51  22 /  20  50  50  20
GRANTS..........................  57  26  55  22 /  10  40  50  20
QUEMADO.........................  58  31  54  28 /  10  30  30  10
GLENWOOD........................  66  27  63  25 /   0  10  10  10
CHAMA...........................  50  23  48  22 /  10  40  60  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  36  54  33 /   0  40  50  20
PECOS...........................  54  31  51  28 /   0  20  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  58  22  53  23 /   0  20  60  30
RED RIVER.......................  47  26  40  23 /   5  20  70  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  25  47  23 /   5  20  60  40
TAOS............................  58  26  55  25 /   0  20  60  30
MORA............................  56  31  49  29 /   0  20  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  62  30  60  27 /   0  20  50  20
SANTA FE........................  57  32  53  29 /   0  20  60  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  31  57  29 /   0  10  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  40  59  39 /   0  10  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  39  60  35 /   0  10  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  37  62  35 /   0  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  38  62  35 /   0  10  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  31  63  29 /   0  10  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  65  38  61  34 /   0  10  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  67  39  66  38 /   0  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  35  57  33 /   0  10  50  20
TIJERAS.........................  60  38  57  35 /   0  10  50  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  60  26  56  25 /   0  10  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  31  53  29 /   0  10  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  58  37  59  36 /   0  10  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  38  64  35 /   0   0  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  59  36  57  33 /   0   5  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  62  31  53  30 /   0  10  30  20
RATON...........................  66  29  54  27 /   0  10  30  20
SPRINGER........................  66  32  56  28 /   0  10  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  30  53  26 /   0  10  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  67  36  59  33 /   0  10  10  20
ROY.............................  63  32  54  30 /   0  10  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  66  38  61  34 /   0   5  10  30
SANTA ROSA......................  63  37  60  35 /   0   5  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  36  65  33 /   0   0  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  37  68  35 /   0   0  10  20
PORTALES........................  66  36  70  36 /   0   0  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  61  38  65  37 /   0   0  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  67  36  76  40 /   0   0   5  10
PICACHO.........................  65  39  69  37 /   0   0  10   5
ELK.............................  62  39  64  36 /   0   0  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44