389
FXUS65 KABQ 131125 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
525 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- There is a high risk of burn scar flash flooding today and a
  low to moderate chance of off-scar flash flooding with stronger
  storms that develop along and east of the Rio Grande Valley.

- Storms in central and eastern New Mexico have the potential to
  produce large hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and
  evening.

- The active monsoon pattern is expected to continue into next
  week, keeping the threat of burn scar flash flooding moderate
  to high each day through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Satellite imagery and observations show that fog has developed in
the western portion of the TX Panhandle near the NM border. Some
of this fog will likely push into far eastern NM, including near
Clayton later this morning, before diminishing shortly after
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Sunday will be another active monsoon day, with showers and storms
focusing over central NM as the upper-level ridge builds northward
over The Great Basin. Storm motion will be to the south/southwest as
a result so lower elevation locations just to the southwest of the
high terrain will be the favored locations to see afternoon storms.
Storms will not be stationary, but propagation of storms over the
high terrain could allow for persistent moderate to heavy rainfall
rates, mainly over the high terrain. This is of particular concern
over the Ruidoso area burn scars. Most likely rainfall in the
Ruidoso area is 0.2 to 0.4" range, however the 90th percentile
rainfall is in excess of 1" and would likely occur if storms do
propagate upstream (north) over the Sacramento mountains. A few
instances of flash flooding are likely along the central mountain
chain outside of burn scars as well given the efficient rainfall
rates and the aformentioned northward propagation. The most unstable
environment will actually be over the eastern plains (sfc based CAPE
of 1500-3000 J/kg), but most hi-res models are generating little to
no precipitation out there since storms over the mountains will get
carried southward as opposed to eastward. Boundary collisions could
tap into the unstable environment in the southeast plains, creating
heavy rainfall in the southeast plains, including Roswell during the
late evening hours where storms will be more "boom or bust".

North to northeast flow aloft persists Monday, resulting in another
round of storms that will favor central NM. Some drier air will work
in across the northeast, limiting precipitation chances somewhat
across the east. Burn scar flash flooding will be the principal
concern and another flash flood watch will likely be needed for the
Ruidoso area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Tuesday will be another repeat of Monday with near average PWATs and
storms moving from north to south. Precipitation chances trend
higher Wednesday as the Low over Baja California advects a plume of
mid-level moisture into New Mexico from the south. PWATs will rise
to around 120% of normal mid-week, favoring more efficient rainfall
rates from storms that develop. Numerous storms each afternoon and
evening are likely Wednesday through Friday with this monsoonal
surge and global models appear to be holding onto storms well into
the overnight hours each day. This does introduce some uncertainty
since overnight convection has the potential to limit afternoon
destabilization, but its difficult to predict if/when this will
occur. High pressure is expected to re-develop within the vicinity
of the Four Corners over the weekend into early next week, which
will allow for moisture to recycle underneath the high and keep
afternoon storm chances around for the foreseeable future. Slow
storm motions mid to late week will enhance the risk of flash
flooding, both on and off burn scars.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Patchy fog has developed in the TX Panhandle and may push into far
eastern NM before diminishing around 14Z. Storms will develop over
the high terrain of central and northern NM around 18Z, slowly
drifting southward and expanding in coverage through the
afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern and
heavier storms may produce MVFR to IFR vis reductions at times.
Storm coverage will peak around 00Z, with most storms ending by
09Z tomorrow. Confidence in storm coverage is lower across eastern
NM, however this area has the potential to see the most intense
storms of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7
days. Scattered to numerous storms are likely each afternoon and
evening, generally favoring the high terrain of central and northern
NM. Storms will move from north to south Sunday through Tuesday,
becoming slower and more erratic mid to late week. Typical monsoon
hazards of small hail, gusty outflow winds, and flash flooding will
be a concern each day. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely, with
the highest chances in the northern mountains and along the central
mountain chain. Multi-day rainfall totals in excess of 1" are likely
across much of central and eastern NM. Humidity recoveries the next
several days will be good to excellent in central and eastern NM,
with fair recoveries in the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  65  96  62 /   5  10  10  20
Dulce...........................  91  47  91  46 /  50  30  60  30
Cuba............................  88  55  87  56 /  40  30  40  50
Gallup..........................  95  53  92  51 /   5  20  40  40
El Morro........................  90  56  87  54 /  20  30  60  60
Grants..........................  93  55  89  54 /  20  30  50  50
Quemado.........................  92  57  89  57 /  30  50  70  70
Magdalena.......................  89  60  85  62 /  40  50  50  40
Datil...........................  88  55  84  55 /  40  50  60  40
Reserve.........................  96  52  91  53 /  50  50  70  50
Glenwood........................ 100  57  94  58 /  50  50  70  50
Chama...........................  84  47  83  47 /  60  30  60  40
Los Alamos......................  84  58  83  60 /  60  30  50  60
Pecos...........................  82  55  81  56 /  60  30  40  30
Cerro/Questa....................  82  52  84  54 /  50  20  50  50
Red River.......................  72  44  75  45 /  50  20  60  50
Angel Fire......................  75  38  76  40 /  60  20  50  30
Taos............................  84  50  86  52 /  50  20  40  50
Mora............................  79  49  80  50 /  70  30  40  20
Espanola........................  91  58  92  60 /  60  30  40  50
Santa Fe........................  84  58  84  60 /  60  30  40  50
Santa Fe Airport................  88  57  88  59 /  60  30  40  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  65  91  68 /  40  30  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  64  92  66 /  30  30  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  63  94  66 /  30  30  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  65  92  67 /  30  30  20  40
Belen...........................  96  62  93  63 /  20  40  20  30
Bernalillo......................  96  63  94  65 /  30  30  30  50
Bosque Farms....................  96  61  93  63 /  20  30  20  30
Corrales........................  96  64  94  66 /  30  30  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  96  63  93  65 /  20  30  20  30
Placitas........................  91  62  89  65 /  40  30  30  50
Rio Rancho......................  95  63  93  66 /  30  30  20  40
Socorro.........................  98  65  94  66 /  30  50  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  56  85  59 /  60  30  40  40
Tijeras.........................  88  58  86  61 /  50  30  40  40
Edgewood........................  88  52  86  55 /  60  30  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  52  86  54 /  50  30  30  20
Clines Corners..................  80  54  79  56 /  60  40  30  20
Mountainair.....................  87  55  83  57 /  60  40  40  20
Gran Quivira....................  85  55  81  57 /  50  50  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  88  60  84  62 /  50  50  50  10
Ruidoso.........................  80  55  75  55 /  70  50  70  10
Capulin.........................  79  53  81  54 /  30  20  10  10
Raton...........................  84  53  85  54 /  30  20  20  10
Springer........................  85  55  87  55 /  50  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  80  52  81  54 /  60  30  30  20
Clayton.........................  84  60  87  62 /  20  20  10  10
Roy.............................  82  57  83  59 /  40  30  10  10
Conchas.........................  88  63  89  65 /  30  30  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  85  60  85  62 /  40  40  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  85  60  87  63 /  20  30  10  10
Clovis..........................  88  63  87  64 /  20  40  10  10
Portales........................  88  64  88  65 /  20  40  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  89  63  87  64 /  20  40  10  10
Roswell.........................  91  67  89  68 /  20  40  20  10
Picacho.........................  86  60  84  60 /  40  40  30  10
Elk.............................  85  57  81  57 /  60  40  50  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ212-
214-215-221>224-226-229-233-239.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16