Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 252341 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
441 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs with clear skies. Northwest winds
will taper off this evening and become terrain dominated overnight.
Southwest winds will increase Monday all terminals aft 17Z with the
strongest gusts of 25-35 kts aft 21Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION...248 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018...
Warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday with breezy to windy
conditions across northeastern New Mexico Monday afternoon. This will
produce critical fire weather conditions there Monday. The next bout
of winter weather arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with
the chance for some snow flakes reaching the Albuquerque area early
Wednesday morning. The best chances for snow accumulation will stay
west of the central mountain chain Wednesday with this system.
Temperatures warm back up Thursday and Friday, with breezy conditions
likely for next weekend.


A shortwave trough that provided snow showers to the northern mtns
this morning has exited off to NE New Mexico and the OK Panhandle.
Clear skies will be left behind tonight with lows several to 10F
below normal tonight.

SW flow returns Monday with highs warming 10-20F degrees to near or
above normal. Breezy SW winds and dry conditions across the east will
bring increased fire weather concerns Mon and Tue afternoons (see
Fire Wx Discussion for further details). Highs Tue will also be above
normal across the east with SW flow remaining as the next closed low
approaches the region over southern CA.

This closed low will begin to bring wintry precipitation to far
western NM overnight Tue into Wed morning, spreading over the central
mtn chain by midday. The NAM12 is the lone holdout keeping this
system as a slower closed low over NM, bringing mtn snow and valley
rain into NM Wed evening. Given model trends, have hedged toward the
earlier arrival time of this system in this forecast package.
Currently the best snow amts look to be over the continental divide
before the low weakens and loses its punch over the central mtn
chain. Some light morning snow is possible in the ABQ metro, but any
accumulations look to be limited to the foothills at this time.

Temperatures warm Thu and Fri as WSW/SW flow returns. The next trough
looks to stay north of NM next weekend, with some northern mtn snow
possible if the ECMWFs more southerly trajectory proves true. But for
most of NM, next weekend looks to be breezy with the passage of this
system to our north.




Another cold front moved through today, with a very cold and dry
airmass moving in behind it. Look for a warm-up beginning Monday,
with increasing winds thanks in part to a deepening lee side
trough. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions are
forecast across northeast New Mexico Monday afternoon, with above
normal temperatures and moderate to high Haines indices. Look for
another dry and breezy day Tuesday with a couple hours of critical
fire weather conditions across the highlands, but across a much
smaller area not worthy of a watch at this time. Moisture advection
is forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday in advance of the
approaching upper low. This will be a quick hitting system, with
limited wetting precipitation favoring the western and central
higher terrain.

Look for a warming trend beginning Thursday to continue into the
weekend, with temperatures back above normal most areas by Friday or
Saturday. Dry westerly flow will be the rule, with breezy conditions
during the afternoons bringing a few hours of elevated to critical
fire weather conditions to portions of the eastern plains.



Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.


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