Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 242143
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
243 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SEGMENT OF THE JET STREAM WILL USHER ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT INTO NEW MEXICO LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL REINFORCE THE CHILLY AIR OVER THE STATE WHILE
KEEPING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ARE ALSO EXPECTED...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...BREEZES WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SHY OF NORMAL. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 165 KT JET
STREAK OVER NEVADA/UTAH THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS JET WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY...IT WILL STILL BUILD STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT INTO
NM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP A CORE OF COLDER AIR INTACT OVER
NM ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CUT DOWN ON OROGRAPHICS...LEADING TO
SNOW PRODUCTION MOSTLY FROM DYNAMIC PROCESSES ABOVE RIDGE TOPS.
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 9000 FEET BEFORE
DAWN TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RIVAL THIS MORNING`S
CHILLY READINGS IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
SPEED...BUT WILL STILL BE OCCASIONALLY STIFF OUT OF THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ADDING TO THE BRISK NATURE OF THE COOLER AIR.

FLOW ALOFT WILL RETAIN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNABLE TO WARM UP TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT RISE JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S READINGS. SOME LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN
SOME STANDING WAVE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THESE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
SHOULD STAY BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODICALLY TUESDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE
WINDS WILL BE LESS OVERALL.

THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND CONSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REDUCE IN
SPEED INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL YIELD WARMER
TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD MAKE IT BACK UP TO LATE NOVEMBER
AVERAGES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR ABOVE AVERAGE.
READINGS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES THURSDAY AND 7 TO 17 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY...AND WILL BE WARMEST IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES FROM THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP
RAISE THE MERCURY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FLOW WILL HAVE TURNED ZONAL BY FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO SATURDAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL THUS PLATEAU...AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BECOME BREEZY IN
THE EAST WITH THE RETENTION OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW.
AS SUNDAY UNFOLDS...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL NOT ALTER
MUCH...HOWEVER A NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL DRIVE DOWN A COLD
FRONT INTO EASTERN NM. THIS WILL SET TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES...BUT ALL AREAS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL IN
ALL...IT SHOULD BE A GREAT TRAVEL WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AT LEAST WEATHER-WISE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON IS SLATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FROM THE PACIFIC. CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOOKS TO BE
A TRANSIENT AND FAST MOVING SYSTEM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW HIGH
ELEVATION VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH FRESH SNOW COVER COULD
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS TUESDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW MEXICO. VENTILATION RATES WILL
RANGE FROM FAIR TO VERY GOOD TUESDAY AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO
MAINLY POOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN
THE RULE THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS STILL ON TRACK
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING PRIMARILY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL FLATTEN/WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND THE RESULTING DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SLOW UP TREND IN VENTILATION RATES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A MAJOR
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO COME ASHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BRING PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AT TAF SITES
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND FARMINGTON AND AT SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER NRN NM. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT
AT TAF SITES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AFTER SUNSET. KLVS...KTCC...AND KROW SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  11  43  21  52 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................   2  38  11  49 /  10   0   0   0
CUBA............................  10  38  17  49 /  10   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................   4  45  15  55 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................   6  42  14  52 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................   5  46  16  55 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  12  45  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  19  56  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  -3  37   8  45 /  20   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  16  39  26  49 /  10   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  12  39  23  52 /  10   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  -6  35  12  48 /  20   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  -9  28   6  41 /  30   5   0   0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -16  30   2  43 /  30   0   0   0
TAOS............................  -1  36  12  48 /  20   0   0   0
MORA............................   8  40  22  54 /  20   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................   8  42  17  53 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  12  38  24  50 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  13  42  23  53 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  19  44  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  22  46  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  13  48  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  15  48  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  13  49  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  17  47  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  22  52  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  13  42  22  52 /   5   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  16  43  23  53 /   5   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............   7  45  16  55 /   5   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  14  40  23  51 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  18  42  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  18  45  24  57 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  18  48  26  59 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................   4  42  19  56 /  20   0   0   0
RATON...........................   7  45  22  58 /  30   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  11  48  20  58 /  20   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  11  45  25  57 /  20   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  20  54  27  58 /   5   0   0   0
ROY.............................  14  49  26  57 /  10   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  21  53  28  60 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  21  51  30  62 /  10   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  19  54  28  62 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  23  52  28  59 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  22  53  29  61 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  22  54  30  62 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  24  55  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  21  52  28  65 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  18  49  27  63 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.