Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 260409 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1009 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Did a quick adjustment to the PoP, weather and sky cover grids for
tonight. Current radar shows the lack of precipitation returns and
there doesn`t appear to be a significant wave of convergence boundary
that would get action going too much rest of tonight. HRRR supports
this trend thus decided to slash values. Perhaps some isold
development across western and central areas after midnight due to
the very moist environment we are in.



.PREV DISCUSSION...556 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across much of central
and western NM with isolated activity elsewhere. Storms will continue
to move toward the northeast around 10 to 15kt through the evening.
Most storms will diminish btw 04-06Z. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys are
possible with the strongest storms as well as wind gusts near
30-35kt. Could see cigs lower overnight across portions of western NM
similar to last night, but confidence is low since this area did not
get as much rain today. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
are expected Wednesday aftn/eve. A front/boundary will slide into NE
NM which should increase thunderstorm coverage.



.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017...
Still not the classic summer monsoon pattern we like to see, as high
pressure will be centered over or near NM into next week. But, there
will still be a good supply of showers and thunderstorms each day
through the forecast period and probably beyond.

High pressure centered just east of NM will drift back over the state
Wednesday into Thursday, then crawl north or northwest after that. A
couple of disturbances will pass to our north, but they will be able
to drop back door cold fronts into the east and probably into the
RGV. This added moisture will help create widespread convection later
this week into next week.


Showers and thunderstorms firing again over much of the forecast
area, some with heavy rain causing minor flooding. That will be the
case into tonight with storm motion from southwest to northeast.

High pressure will take its time building back over NM Wednesday and
Thursday. Storm activity will be less over the west and central zones
Wednesday, but the first back door cold front will reach northeast NM
late Wednesday and continue south and west Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will noticeably ramp up convection into the east
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. The front and its copious
amounts of low level moisture may seep into the Rio Grande Valley
(RGV) early Thursday, and will certainly pour in Thursday evening and
night. Widespread showers and storms will be the result Thursday and
Friday over the CWA. This will be a period when flash flooding will
be more of a concern.

Recycle mode for Saturday then the next back door front will reach
the east Sunday and we again add tons of low level moisture to the
atmospheric mix. Widespread boomers will again thunder across the
area Sunday through early next week. An active period for sure,
despite not having the classic monsoon pattern we look for this time
of year.



A typical late July, and fairly wet, pattern is in store for the
next several days across NM. Upper level high pressure will orbit
around the state with high contents of atmospheric moisture
lingering over the area. Thus, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop each afternoon and evening.
High and effective humidity recoveries are expected each night with
low Haines values prevailing due to the moist boundary layer

Any large scale differences on Tuesday will largely be the result of
a back door front that infiltrates the state from the northeast late
in the day. Moisture is already readily abundant, but this frontal
boundary will only add to it while also acting as a focal point for
additional storm development along and east of the Sangre de
Cristos. As the front sags farther into the state Wednesday evening,
storms will along and east of the central mountains into the high
plains. The surface boundary is forecast to advance west of the Rio
Grande on Thursday, shifting this focus for storm development to the
Continental Divide while the northern mountains will likely remain
convectively active. A gusty gap/canyon wind could also develop
Thursday evening through central zones, and localized thunderstorm
outflows will also introduce abrupt and erratic gusts. The
probability for more widespread footprints of wetting rainfall will
remain elevated through the next several days, and slow moving
storms will have the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Into Friday and Saturday, the upper level dome of high pressure will
re-situate itself near the Four Corners or north of NM. Some dry air
will attempt to creep into NM from the southeastern periphery of the
high, but it will likely not be enough to fully scour out the
moisture currently in place. This should keep at least isolated to
scattered storms going over northern parts of the state. By Sunday
another back door cold front could recharge storms in northeastern
NM going into Monday. This would then likely set the stage for more
storms over eastern NM Tuesday, but forecast models diverge on some
of the details of the upper level features.





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