Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 182117
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
217 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest flow aloft will weaken Sunday then tighten up again Monday.
A weak short wave trough will brush northeast NM Monday night and
drag a back door cold front down the eastern plains Tuesday. A big
ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. will develop next week,
keeping us dry all week. Temperatures will be above normal every day
Monday into the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. Another back door cold
fronts will bring temporary cooling on Saturday in the east, but
still above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Fall as finally arrived in New Mexico, about two months late. It will
be cold tonight, the coldest night of the season so far in the wake
of the weak short wave trough and pacific and polar cold fronts. The
blustery winds in the east will subside quickly this evening.

Northwest flow aloft will lessen Sunday, with just some gentle
breezes in the east. After a cold start, sunshine will help boost
afternoon highs to comfortably cool levels; near normal at most
locations. The northwest flow will tighten Monday as a lee side
surface deepens. Much of the eat will experience breezy to windy
conditions. Everywhere will see warming to 5 to 15 degrees above
normal.

A weak short wave trough will drop southeast Monday night into the
central and southern plains. It will have little impact on our
weather, aside from a weak back door cold front into the east on
Tuesday. Highs will cool, but still remain just above normal.

A big ridge of high pressure will be developing over the western
states this coming week, blocking any pacific storms from directly
impacting our weather. Instead, we will see dry weather all week.
Temperatures will climb higher Wednesday through Friday. Highs on
Thanksgiving and Friday will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Winds
will be mostly light and skies full of sunshine. Great weather for
traveling early in the holiday weekend.

The second half of the weekend will be almost as nice, remaining dry
and mild. A back door cold front Friday night into the east will mean
a little cooler on Saturday, generally by only a handful of degrees.
Sunday should be nice and mild for late November as another ridge of
high pressure begins to build in the great SW.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Last night`s cold front brought a dry and finally cooler airmass to
NM with daytime temperatures unable to reach normal this afternoon.
This has brought lower mixing heights and areas of poor ventilation
to the forecast area as surface winds continue to settle. A chilly
night is in store with all of the forecast area finally expected to
observe freezing temperatures, helping to finish curing fuels in the
recent dry conditions. A high variance of humidity recovery is
forecast tonight into Sunday morning with good recoveries generally
favoring the plains and lower elevations and poor recovery on the
mid slopes to high peaks. Overall very low dewpoints will be
settling into the forecast area tonight through the next couple of
days.

Lighter west northwest flow aloft on Sunday with veering surface
winds will allow temperatures to rebound to more seasonal readings.
The very low dewpoints will yield very low minimum RH, generally 20
percent or less over the whole area while poor smoke dispersion and
ventilation rates persist. Moderately breezy conditions will take
shape in the east central plains of NM.

Monday could prove to be a bit of a concern as the flow aloft veers
more northwesterly while picking up speed as a few embedded
perturbations move toward NM. The strong winds will impact the
southern Sangres and central mountains/highlands the most, where
critical winds Monday afternoon will warrant attention due to the
prevalent low humidity and continued rising temperatures. The
spatial area that could observe critical winds and critically low RH
Monday afternoon would represent a minority of eastern FWZ107 and
western FWZ108. This will be evaluated on subsequent shifts for a
possible Fire Weather Watch. Ventilation will improve Monday, but
still be poor in many valley and sheltered locations.

Despite a cold front infiltrating NM Monday night, temperatures will
stay above average Tuesday through Friday as winds turn very light
with an unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure swelling over the
Baja. Poor ventilation is expected to linger through this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A cold front has invaded New Mexico with a dry, cooler air mass left
behind in its wake. Some northerly breezes are still gusty in
portions of the eastern plains, but these should diminish into the
mid afternoon. A clear, cold night is expected tonight with VFR
conditions persisting. Moderate southerly breezes will then
develop in the eastern plains of New Mexico Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  15  53  18  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  10  53  11  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  17  52  21  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................   7  58  12  62 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................   6  57  10  60 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................   8  58  13  62 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  14  59  21  62 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  30  67  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................   9  48  12  50 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  25  53  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  20  53  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  15  49  17  53 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  12  43  14  46 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................   4  49   9  52 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................   9  53  11  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  12  55  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  20  57  22  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  22  51  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  19  53  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  26  57  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  26  57  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  23  58  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  25  57  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  19  58  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  25  57  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  25  61  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  19  52  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  18  54  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  15  57  20  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  21  53  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  23  56  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  28  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  26  56  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  18  57  22  64 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  16  58  20  65 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  16  60  21  66 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  18  58  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  25  58  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  20  56  25  65 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  28  62  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  25  62  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  27  62  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  27  58  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  27  58  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  27  57  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  28  57  29  71 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  27  57  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  25  55  31  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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