Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 311828 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO TWEAK POPS DOWN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DROPPED A MAJORITY OF OUR
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO RISING SNOW LEVELS AND LITTLE
ADDITIONAL QPF. WILL KEEP THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
GOING FOR NOW.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1053 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

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