Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 111720
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1020 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NW FLOW AT MT TOP LEVELS. SFC LEE TROF AT 18Z TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WEAK NLY WIND SHIFT NE AND EAST CENTRAL NM AFT
00Z. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...248 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY WAS QUITE WARM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A FEW AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST SET RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS
WARM TODAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...AND A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AREAWIDE. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT LATE
NEXT WEEK NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD SEE A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WHILE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW IS CAUSING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS N AND NE
NM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVE THRU KTCC AS OF THIS WRITING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT SINCE THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND KGUP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING
ITS RECORD FOR THE DATE. ALL AREAS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THOUGH TODAYS FRONT WASHES OUT FAST TONIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
AGAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE UP TO A 10 DEGREE
COOLING ACROSS THE NE. RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO FORM ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TX BORDER. A REPEAT OF THIS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SAT NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CLIP NE NM ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO WEAK TROUGH PASSAGES...THE
LATTER BEING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS DRY BUT MAY
KICK UP THE BREEZES A BIT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY...AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ARRIVE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE NE WILL LIKELY BE ON
SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD RAISING
TEMPS AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS UP IN THE
AIR...NO PUN INTENDED...WITH REGARDS TO ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS BRINGS A TROUGH ACROSS NM/CO
AROUND THURS AND THURS NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE
TROUGH ACROSS UNTIL FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHEN IT ARRIVES...IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING MORE WIND THAN PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT DECENT SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE CASE TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO FAIR AND GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD POOR RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THEN GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE EAST. ONE SUCH FRONT
HAS MADE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN TRY TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME COOLING IN THE EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE 16 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY IN CLAYTON. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST WILL GENERALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GALLUP COULD SEE A RECORD HIGH TODAY. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY
POOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HELP BOOST VENT RATES TO FAIR AND
GOOD LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...FAVORING THE SOUTH AND EAST.

A BIT STRONGER FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NM SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BE DRY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN TO
OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE CENTERED OVER NM BY WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST DECENT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE. THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IF YOU PREFER THE ECMWF THEN IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL BRINGING
BETTER VENT RATES.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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