Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 020533 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS
LOW LEVEL EAST TO WEST GRADIENT SUBSIDES. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING FOR MT OBSCURATIONS IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND LCL
VSBYS IN BR THRU 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW TO
INCH CLOSE ENOUGH TO NM BY 03/00Z TO HELP INITIATE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...846 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.UPDATE...

WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AS SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ALL THAT IS LEFT
FOR THE EVENING WITH LITTLE REGENERATION OR NEWLY DEVELOPING
BATCHES. THUS...POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WERE FINE-TUNED WITH AN OVERALL REDUCTION...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP EXPECTED.

SOME ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FOG WERE ALSO INTRODUCED TO TONIGHT`S
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS WETTED THE
SOILS. LAND INFO SYSTEM VOLUMETRIC SOIL MOISTURE PRODUCTS FROM NASA
SPORT INDICATE SOME HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...NORTH CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS OF
NM...AND HAVE USED THIS AS A FIRST GUESS WHERE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL INITIATE TONIGHT.

NEW ZONE FORECAST IS OUT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PRECIPITATION AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WIND WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...THEN DECREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE A RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND WORK WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL TO
WEST CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...EVEN IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAYS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAYS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG
CALIFORNIAS COAST LINE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO SPELLING WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. THESE COULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT
THEY WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO DRAW THE DRYLINE INTO EASTERN NM ON
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK...IT
TAKES A BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN RETURNS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ AND NM BORDER...WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NE.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS
IN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MILDER DAYS...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS AND LESS
LIKELY. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
FRIDAY IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY THEN ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY. COOLER READING WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. WE
CANNOT SAY ANY OF THESE DAYS WILL BE DRY...BUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG THE TX BORDER DURING THE EVENINGS WHEN A
DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY THEN
PICKUP THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WEST THURSDAY...WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. VENT
RATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING WHILE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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