Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240554 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1154 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Convection is persisting into the overnight hours across south
central and western New Mexico and may impact KGUP and KFMN with
short-lived MVFR conditions. Otherwise, Monday will be an active
thunderstorm day, with western terminals most likely to be impacted.
MVFR conditions with storms likely Monday afternoon, with short-lived
IFR conditions possible.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern to continue through next weekend. High
pressure in northwest NM will inch southeast early this week with
the high center just east of NM. This will also a decent plume of
moisture to continue and increase some over western NM. The high
will build and shift back over NM mid-week and move northwest of
the state late in the week through next weekend. Storms will be
capable of heavy rain with the threat of isolated flash flooding
more of a concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms area wide this
afternoon. They will increase in coverage and intensity through
this evening with locally heavy rain and flash flooding concerns.
Activity to diminish after midnight but likely will not all end.

High pressure will be centered over NM Monday then slowly drift east
Tuesday, only to drift back over NM Wednesday. There will be subtle
differences each day, but the bottom line will continue to be the
north and west with the best coverage, and least on the east plains
due to steering flow.

Later in the week the upper high will recenter itself more and more
to the northwest, while strengthening. Meanwhile a short wave trough
passing to our north will send a back door front into the east
Thursday, with a noticeable uptick in storm coverage in the
northeast and east central areas Thursday and Friday, while the west
remains moist, unstable and active. The upper high will continue to
drift northwest next weekend into the Great basin. Steering flow will
again favor the west and central areas.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper high currently N of NM over western CO will slide east
into the TX/OK Panhandle area by Monday afternoon. This afternoon`s
crop of convection is being steered by easterly flow along the
southern periphery of the high. Storms over the eastern plains
have initiated along remnant boundaries leftover from last night`s
convective activity. With the high repositioned east of the
region Monday, storms will favor the western half of NM, generally
moving to the N. Storm coverage over the east will likely be
less, but cannot rule out initiation along remnant sfc boundaries.
Flash flooding will remain a concern through the week where the
heaviest downpours occur.

Storm coverage trends down a bit Tuesday and Wednesday as the high
begins to shift back west, eventually repositioning over the Four
Corners and Great Basin region. Sfc moisture will remain plentiful
mid-week with PWAT values remaining near the climatological norm for
late July at its lowest Tue/Wed. This will allow for afternoon
convection to continue Tue/Wed, although with less coverage and
likely slower storm motions with the upper high centered more over
NM. A shortwave trough moving N of the high across the Great Plains
looks to drop a backdoor front into the eastern plains Wednesday
night. This coupled with NW flow beginning to set over the northern
mtns and NW plains looks to be a focal point for later afternoon and
evening convection over NE New Mexico Wednesday night. Models
continue this convection moving S through the night into Thursday
morning.

By Thursday, the upper high will be situated more to the west of the
forecast area, setting up the aforementioned NW flow over the
northern mtns and east. This will increased storm coverage over
eastern NM for the end of the week. Forecast PWAT levels near daily
record levels of 1.20"-1.40" will set the stage for widespread
convection by the end of the week and into next weekend.

Daytime temperatures will trend a bit below average this week due to
expected increased cloud coverage during the day, with the exception
of the eastern plains Tue/Wed where highs will be a few degrees
above avg. Both MixHgts and VentRates trend down towards the latter
half of the week as the high repositions its NW of the region.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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