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000
FXUS65 KABQ 062227
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SNOW
MELT AND SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND. WEAK WAA AT 700MB SHOULD
HELP WITH FOG FORMATION WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MODELS SEEM TO
BE OVERDOING FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET/LIGHT SNOW IN THE THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR SFC PRESSURE
FALLS OVER AZ SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE INCREASING SELY WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE COLD DOME TO GET SOME WEAK UPGLIDE GOING. LOWERED
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A
RESULT BUT KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE RANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY.

FOCUS SHIFT TO VIGOROUS AND DEEP/COLD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE JUST OFF THE PACNW COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
FAR WRN GREAT BASIN BY 12 SATURDAY...THEN SEWD TO NEAR THE GREAT
SALT LAKE AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION
IN THE WESTERN AND PARTICULARLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE-DAY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS
WITH NAM12 AND GFS INDICATIVE OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING A FOOT
OVER THE TUSAS MOUNTAIN CREST EAST OF CHAMA AND TIERRA AMARILLA
AND FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THE WHITEWATER AND
MOGOLLON BALDY AREAS OF THE GILA NORTH TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES AT/NEAR 700MB...DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...PROGGED LAPSE RATES AND LOW MIXING RATIOS WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE QUINTESSENTIAL POWDER RATIOS.

QUASI-PERMANENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SEND YET ANOTHER BONE CHILLING
COLD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
COLDEST NIGHT OF SINCE AT LEAST JANUARY OF 2013 WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH REINFORCEMENTS ON THE WAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT
FORECAST SATURDAY...MAINLY WEST WHERE SOME WARMING AND INCREASED
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD AND PERHAPS SOME EXCELLENT VENT
RATES. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE
THE FRONTAL LAYER WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...LIGHT BUT
NON-WETTING PRECIPITATION AND POOR VENT RATES. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH STRONG
WINDS... WETTING PRECIPITATION AND EVEN COLDER AIR COMING IN. GOOD
MIXING AND IMPRESSIVE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL ADD UP TO GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES MOST AREAS SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL LAYER ACROSS THE
EAST WILL BE REPLACED BY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS AND RESULT IN SOME
WARMING RELATIVE TO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL EASILY EXCEED CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY WEST FACING SLOPES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN
SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE TEMPERATURE DOWNTREND WILL LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ENSUES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO 5-10
BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY...WHILE LOWS TREND FROM 15-30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TO AN AVERAGE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A
HIT WITH THE COLD AIR AND BE POOR AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO A MIX OF POOR TO GOOD BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH
BY WED/THU. SOME POTENTIAL FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AGREEING ON THE TIMING BUT NOT THE OTHER SPECIFICS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MELTING SNOW...SOME DRYING AND A STUBBORN FRONTAL INVERSION
CREATING FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD. KFMN AND KGUP LIKELY TO
STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KSAF...KABQ AND KAEG VFR UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW AND HAVE OPTED FOR VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
KABQ AND KAEG AFTER 12Z AS FLOW TURNS TO THE SE IN THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER. EAST WIND AT THE SURFACE AT KABQ SHOULD KEEP ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND BELOW RUNWAY LEVEL. AT KSAF...
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. FOR KLVS...KTCC AND
KROW...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN LIKELY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
KLVS AND KTCC POSSIBLY GOING VFR FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................   8  33  18  25 /   0  10  40  30
DULCE...........................  -2  28  15  19 /   0  30  70  50
CUBA............................   9  29  19  23 /   0  20  60  50
GALLUP..........................   5  33  20  24 /   0  10  50  30
EL MORRO........................   3  32  21  25 /   0  10  60  40
GRANTS..........................  10  35  23  27 /   0  10  40  30
QUEMADO.........................  12  37  22  32 /   0   5  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  17  43  27  40 /   0   5  50  20
CHAMA...........................  -4  23  12  16 /   5  50  90  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  12  27  22  27 /   0  20  40  40
PECOS...........................   8  25  20  25 /  10  30  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  -2  23  14  20 /   5  30  60  50
RED RIVER.......................   1  19   8  14 /  10  40  80  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  -5  21   7  19 /  10  30  60  60
TAOS............................   0  27  16  23 /   5  20  40  40
MORA............................   6  24  17  24 /  20  30  30  40
ESPANOLA........................  12  31  24  30 /   0  10  20  30
SANTA FE........................   8  26  21  27 /   0  20  30  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................   7  29  22  29 /   0  10  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  14  33  23  33 /   0   5   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  16  34  25  35 /   0   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  10  35  21  37 /   0   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  17  35  25  35 /   0   5   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  19  39  26  39 /   0   5   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  18  35  25  34 /   0   5   5  20
SOCORRO.........................  24  40  28  44 /   0   5   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........   9  28  20  28 /  10  10  10  40
TIJERAS.........................  11  30  19  30 /   5  10  10  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  -9  28   8  31 /  10  10   5  20
CLINES CORNERS..................   8  26  19  29 /  20  30  10  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  13  33  22  36 /  10  10   5  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  20  38  26  41 /   5   5   5  20
RUIDOSO.........................  16  32  25  38 /  20  20  10  30
CAPULIN.........................   0  16  13  26 /  20  30  20  30
RATON...........................   1  20  13  27 /  20  30  20  30
SPRINGER........................   0  22  14  29 /  20  30  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................   4  21  17  27 /  20  30  10  30
CLAYTON.........................   0  16  14  32 /  20  30  10  20
ROY.............................   4  18  15  31 /  30  30  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  10  22  19  38 /  30  30  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  12  22  18  38 /  30  30  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  10  22  19  38 /  20  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................   8  18  16  40 /  10  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  10  19  16  42 /  10  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  15  23  18  41 /  30  30  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  19  26  18  49 /  20  30  10   5
PICACHO.........................  15  26  22  45 /  20  20  10   5
ELK.............................  17  30  26  44 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-510>514.

&&

$$

33