Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011129
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES
TODAY...LEADING TO A FEW SCANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN DOWNPOURS WILL BE QUITE LOW
DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS OF THE STATE...LASTING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL REACH 20 TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOMEWHAT
STRONGER TONIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT PLUNGES INTO THE STATE. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE PRONE TO LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. THESE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE BRUSHING MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NORTH...AS WELL AS A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT. TWO COLD FRONTS...ONE
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SUCH AS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...UPPER RIO GRANDE AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORT WAVE AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONTS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS AS WELL AS DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT AN ABRUPT CHANGE FROM MONSOON TO FALL WEATHER. SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRAZE FAR NORTHERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES FOR A DUSTING
OF SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AND PASSES OF THE FAR NORTH BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK...SO MAY NEED TO TREND POPS UP/DOWN/NORTH/SOUTH IF
THE UPPER JET DIGS FARTHER SOUTH OR RETREATS NORTHWARD MORE THAN
CURRENTLY PREDICTED. REGARDLESS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BRING SOME FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT AND MORESO
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
STATE. FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES DIP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY 12Z THURS AND REMAIN RATHER COOL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS COOLED DOWN FROM INHERITED
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGHS AS WELL AS
THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...IN PART THANKS TO A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR SOME AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD...WHICH PUTS SOME LOCALES IN THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...UPPER
RIO GRANDE AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS IN
JEOPARDY OF AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FREEZE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. EVEN VALLEY AREAS OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO COULD GET CLOSE TO
FREEZING.

BY THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO MODERATE AS THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW OR A RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST COULD DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. THE ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH...AS THE
MOISTURE INTERSECTS WITH A SOUTH AND WESTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. BUT
FROM FRIDAY MIDDAY THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST APPEARS DRY
WITH MOSTLY NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE GRADIENT ALOFT IS TIGHTENING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
STRENGTHENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WHILE THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN UTAH IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THERE ARE STORMS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING OBSERVED IN
UT/CO...INCREASING OUR CONFIDENCE THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN NM INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL YIELD SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS...MOST OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...WETTING RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...SOME MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE...AND
MINIMUM RH FALLING TO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH EXCELLENT
VENTILATION RATES.

AS THE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO NM. THE ADVERTISED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT...SO SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...NAMELY OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. A STIFF NORTHERLY WIND IN
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT DURING/AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS THURSDAY...AND A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
EXIT THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE THE
WINDS WOULD STEADILY RELAX TOWARD LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY
ONE WITH MANY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OBSERVING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY EVEN OTHER VALLEYS SUCH AS THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE AND ESTANCIA.

FORECAST MODELS HAVE ALSO THROWN A BIT OF A CURVE BALL BY
STRENGTHENING A TRAILING UPPER LOW THAT WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ENTER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DRIVE DOWN ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...REINFORCING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHIFTING SURFACE/20FT
WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE TAKING
RESIDENCE OVER THE UPPER GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT TO DECREASE OVER NM WHILE PRESSURE HEIGHTS
RISE. OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AND WILL BE PLATEAUING BY SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH TO THE SW OF NM WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. SOME POOR
VENTILATION CONCERNS WILL SHOW UP FRIDAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...DESPITE THE RISING MIXING HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ADVERTISED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREATER SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW AND WHEN IT WILL ERODE AWAY IN THE
LONG TERM.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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