Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 090124 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
624 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

Updated to increase coverage of low clouds across the eastern
plains through early Friday morning based on recent satellite and
model data. Also added patchy freezing fog to the forecast from
Ruidoso to Roswell and north/northeastward to Clines Corners and
the Caprock. Further, lowered temperatures more along the lines of
National Blend and the WRF models. Other models/blends don`t seem
to be handling this cold and shallow airmass very well.



.PREV DISCUSSION...518 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016...
Aviation impacts continue to focus over eastern NM where low cigs
and patchy FZFG exist. Tricky forecast for KLVS as terminal is on
the edge of a LIFR cloud mass w/ cigs blw 005 and vsbys near 1SM.
This is a very low confidence forecast as site may go in and out
of IFR depending on how the wind direction evolves. MVFR cigs for
KTCC/KROW expected to lower to near 015 by 06Z and perhaps lower
thru sunrise. Drier winds expected to turn westerly Friday and
force all cloud cover out of the area by 18Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016...
Low clouds across eastern New Mexico will slowly dissipate by
about midnight. Winds will turn southerly, helping to keep
temperatures from falling much overnight. A warming trend will get
underway Friday as winds become southwesterly, scouring out the
cold air. The warming trend will continue Saturday as west and
southwest breezes strengthen. The next storm system to impact the
region is expected to bring low elevation rain and mountains snow
to the northwest third of the state late Saturday night into


Upslope stratus clouds hanging on strong east of the central
mountain chain this afternoon. Temperatures hovering from the
upper teens in the central and northeast highlands to the low 20s
across the plains. Elsewhere, temperatures ranging from the upper
20s to low 40s. Surface high pressure centered over northwest KS
is forecast to slide east this evening, allowing a return sely/sly
low level flow to set up across the area. The resulting sely/sly
breezes won`t allow temps to drop much overnight.

Increasing wly flow aloft will lead to a strong lee sfc
trough/low centered across the northeast highlands/plains Friday
and Saturday, resulting in a rapid warm up. Temperatures across
the east trend up by as much as 25-30 degrees on Friday over
today`s readings while central and western areas trend up 5-10
degrees. Temperatures continue to trend up Saturday as the lee
sfc low strengthens further and west winds aloft mix down.
Moderate west winds develop most areas Saturday afternoon with
locally strong west and southwest winds possible across the east-
central and northeast plains .

A strong northwesterly jet is forecast to nose into northern NM
Saturday night and Sunday. 12z GFS and ECMWF have essentially
flipped solutions from yesterday. Canadian model is now on board
with the GFS and NAM. Left lower elevation rain and snow chances
across the northwest third or so of the state as is given the bulk
of models siding with at least some form of precip across the
northwest third Sunday. Wave/jet streak slides southeast of the
region Sunday night and Monday, leaving dry west/nwly flow aloft
in its wake.

Models agree that a deep closed low over northern Manitoba will
send another modified Arctic airmass southward across the high
plains Monday and Tuesday. GFS brings the associated backdoor
front into ern NM Tuesday night and Wed while the ECMWF holds it
off to the northeast. Temperature guidance all over the place as a
result so split the difference between the two.

With regard to late next week, GFS and ECMWF agree that the flow
aloft in the Gulf of Alaska will buckle at some point around mid-
week (strong omega block develops) sending upper level troughs
over the PACNW sewd into the Desert Southwest and NM. This would
lead to more modified Arctic highs moving in from the northeast along
with better chances for snow, especially north and east during the
8-14 day period. 33


A warming/drying trend begins today and will bring above normal
temperatures areawide by the weekend. Vent rates will remain poor
Friday, but improve this weekend as stronger winds develop with
deeper lee side troughing. The jet stream will take a southerly dip
across Colorado and northern New Mexico on Sunday, bringing
orographically forced and potentially wetting precipitation to the
northern higher terrain. Sunday looks to be the windiest day overall
this forecast cycle, with strong to potentially damaging winds
possible over the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and adjacent eastern
and northeast highlands.

Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week with a
mixed-bag of poor to good vent rates and no wetting precipitation in
sight. A strong backdoor cold front will likely slide down the
Eastern Plains sometime toward the middle of next week, but central
and western New Mexico should remain relatively warm with a near-
zonal synoptic weather pattern in place. 11





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