Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 231804 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1204 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOME AREAS NEAR THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN TODAY. VFR CIGS EXPECTED WEST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. A
FEW AFTERNOON HIGH TERRAIN SH AND TS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOVEMENT TO THE
EAST...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KROW. CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH BEST CONFIDENCE OF VCFG AND BR
DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH LESS CONFIDENCE AT KTCC AND
KROW. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INCLUDING KLVS AND KTCC WILL
EXPERIENCE 20 TO 30 KT WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LEE SIDE
TROUGHING.

&&

32

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY AND THAT SHOULD BE THE
CASE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THERE MAY WELL BE A VERY FEW
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN STILL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PERHAPS AGAIN BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. BUT AGAIN ANY THAT OCCUR WILL
BE OUTLIERS IN CONTRAST TO THE OVERALL DRIER PATTERN. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP SOME TODAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN WEDNESDAY...
BUT TREND MAY STALL OR EVEN REVERSE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...WHILE THE FAR
NORTHWEST SHOULD GET AWAY WITH NONE AT ALL. UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH GETTING WELL EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND FLOW ALOFT ALREADY
TRANSITIONING TO A FAIRLY LIGHT WNW TO NW FLOW...BRINGING THE DRY
SLOT ALOFT DEEPER INTO THE STATE. S CENTRAL AND SW MOUNTAINS TO
LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. ALSO FOR THE MOST PART
INTENSITY WILL BE LESS THAN WAS THE CASE MON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD MORE STRONGLY OVER W TO NW NM WED
AND THU. THE SOMEWHAT WARMER LOW LVLS COMBINED WITH ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERATE GREATER INSTABILITY WED
OVER THE EAST AND OVER MOST AREAS THU. ALSO WITH THE ADDITION OF
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE THESE DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH THE FCST
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS RAIN BULLISH FOR THIS PERIOD THAN WHAT
THEY WERE INDICATING 2 OR 3 DAYS AGO.

NARROWING AND WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT TO BE SQUARELY OVER NM FRI...
BUT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS...FAVORING MORE THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RIDGE TO EVENTUALLY
GET KICKED EAST AS A STRONG WEST COAST TROUGH COMES INLAND FRIDAY AND
CROSSES NM LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE WEST AND NORTH.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE
THEME APPEAR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...WITH DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTIONS RUNNING
FASTER THAN EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES WITH ECMWF SOLUTION ON SAME BASIC
IDEA. HARMONIOUS START MAINTAINS SOLID RIDGE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS QUICK BLIP
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...CLOSED LOW OFF VANCOUVER
ISLAND ON THE CANADIAN WEST COAST ANCHORING MUSCULAR TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
THURSDAY...AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WITH BROAD AREA OF WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS...MAIN GUTS OF THE RIDGE WILL
BE SQUASHED BETWEEN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH AND INVERTED
TROUGH OVER TEXAS...BUT WILL REMAIN THE KEY PLAYER IN NEW MEXICO
WEATHER. WITH TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN...TROUGH
ENERGY WILL MAKE AGONIZINGLY SLOW ADVANCE TO THE FOUR CORNERS OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. AS
THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP...TROUGH WILL SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES ON WHAT FOLLOWS...AS
EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION AMPLIFIES NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BLASTS THIS RAPIDLY TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY
MIDWEEK. GFS HAS THE SAME IDEA...BUT DIGS THE TROUGH DIP INTO THE
HEART OF TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN SPEEDY NORTHWEST
FLOW. KEY THEME IS TROUGHINESS...AND THE WEATHER STORY AND FORECAST
THINKING WILL KEEP POINTING TOWARD AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PENDING
GREATER COHERENCE IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

FOR TODAY...RAINFALL DOWN TICK UNDERWAY...WITH REMAINING ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AND CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CENTER OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN NORTH OF I 40. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND 30S PCT IN THE
WEST...AND 30S AND 40S PCT IN THE EAST. GENERALLY GOOD VENTILATION
STATEWIDE DEGRADING TO POOR OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WEST COAST OF MEXICO ACROSS
ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST WYOMING...AS SURFACE
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TO NORTHERN SONORA. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER FOCUS TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE TO BASIC HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURE REGIME FROM TUESDAY...WITH VENTILATION RUNNING POOR
TO FAIR FOR ALL BUT THE EAST...WHERE BETTER VENTILATION CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE HANGING TOUGH UNDER HAMMERING FROM
ADVANCING WEST COAST TROUGH AS IT MOVES ON TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURE WARM UPS WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXTENDING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. STILL RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST AND SOUTH IN
PROXIMITY TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER TEXAS. A DAY OF SHIFTING FOR SHOWER
COVERAGE...WITH WIDESPREAD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
STATE AS FOCUS SHIFTS OUT OF THE EAST AND MOVES TOWARD THE WEST.
RIDGE WILL KEEP VENTILATION POOR ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH
SOMEWHAT IMPROVED CONDITIONS IN THE EAST. SOME BOOSTS IN MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE WEST AS A MORE MOIST PATTERN STARTS TO SEEP UNDER
THE WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN CIRCULATION
ABOUT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL START TO WORK IN OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPEEDING UP SIGNIFICANTLY
ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH CORE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
ROUGHLY EL PASO. FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER PUSH FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...AS SHOWER COVERAGE SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PICK UP OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S PCT WITH CONTINUED GOOD TO EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. DEGRADED VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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