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000
FXUS65 KABQ 061246 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE PECOS VALLEY AND CAPROCK AREAS OF EASTERN NM. UPDATED GRIDS
AND ZONE FORECAST TO REFLECT FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION SHOWS SOLID AREA. LOCALLY SLICK TRAVEL IS LIKELY
IN A FEW AREAS FROM CHAVES TO DE BACA...CURRY...AND QUAY COUNTIES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...447 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
FAIRLY THIN RIBBON OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
PLAINS OF NM...ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN SOME IFR AND LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY. ROW
BY FAR BE THE MOST IMPACTED TAF SITE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z...
BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO TCC BETWEEN 12Z AND
1430Z. LOW CIGS AND FOG NOT MENTIONED IN TCC TAF AS CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW FOR THAT SITE. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR NEW
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. A
FEW CLOUDS AND A SHOWER OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAYS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE MANY FOLKS WILL SEE 60S
AND 70S ONCE AGAIN. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON THROUGH MID MARCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z RAOBS OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUPPORT THE LATEST WAVER VAPOR
REPRESENTATION OF AN INTENSELY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. PWAT VALUES AND 700MB TEMPS WERE IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY MARCH. MEANWHILE...A DRY UPPER LOW STATIONARY OVER THE BAJA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD AND ADVECT INCREASINGLY MOIST
MID AND UPPER LEVELS INTO SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY LIGHT
QPF IS NOTED ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS OVER THE GILA REGION SATURDAY
THEN OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY. WETTING
PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING OTHER
THAN OROGRAPHICS. ON SUNDAY...A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND FORCES A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY
SERVE AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN ARE
VERY LIGHT.

THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WEATHER PATTERN IS JUST PLAIN BIZZARE
AND MODELS PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE CURRENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA IS SHOWN TO BEGIN AN OVERAL WEAKNESS IN THE
H5 HEIGHT FIELD OVER NM THROUGH MID WEEK. A SECONDARY WAVE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND CONTINUES A MOSTLY
DRY AND AMORPHOUS PATTERN OVER NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY. 700MB TEMPS
ARE SHOWN TO WARM BACK TOWARD NORMAL AND TRANSLATE INTO A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL SURFACE TEMPS. YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SLIDING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REINFORCES THE WEAKNESS OVER NM THROUGH FRIDAY.
WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CHANGES FROM
MODELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REGARDLESS...FOR NOW THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO NOTE.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOKING LIKE AN OVERALL DRY PERIOD...NO WETTING AMTS OF PRECIP...
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. BUT MOST FCST MODELS STILL INDICATE A LITTLE HIGH BASED
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FAVORING THE MTNS...MAINLY SAT/SUN/MON
AFTN/EVE AND PERHAPS AGAIN BY FRI. STILL WANT TO EMPHASIZE THOUGH
THAT THIS SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY...HIGH BASED AND BY FAR HIGH TERRAIN
FAVORED. ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL...BUT CHANCES ARE
NOT HIGH FOR THIS. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE THE SOUTHERN
MTNS. MODERATELY STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY...BUT SHOULD BE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE
RULE. DUE TO THE LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT...VENTILATION WILL BE POOR MOST
AREAS FRIDAY BUT IMPROVE ON SAT...MAINLY SW THIRD OF FCST AREA DUE
TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY ALOFT. MIXING HEIGHTS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SW ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE CUT OFF
LOW. VENTILATION SHOULD IMPROVE EVEN FURTHER ELSEWHERE ON SUN DUE TO
MUCH BETTER MIXING. SOME WORSENING OF VENT RATES MON...MAINLY WEST
HALF...DUE TO LESS MIXING. RATES LOWER MOST AREAS TUE BEFORE
IMPROVING SLOWLY WED AND THU. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. THEREAFTER MORE
LOCALES THAN NOT SHOULD SE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS.

THE LATE WEEK PRECIP CHANCES ADVERTISED BY MOST FCST MODELS FOR
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO FRI...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN STORM TRACK
IS ADVERTISED TO BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF NM.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$