Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011144 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
444 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LOCATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG. LOOKS LIKE GUP...SAF AND ROW SOCKED IN RIGHT NOW WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FMN AND TCC NOT FAR BEHIND. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT THESE SITES. REMAINING TAF SITES
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO REFORM TONIGHT. TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE BUT SEEMS LIKE THE
EASTERN PLAINS MOST LIKELY...WHICH INCLUDES TCC AND ROW. WILL CARRY
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THESE TWO SITES STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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