Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 192047
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRYING AND WARMING LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

STORM NUMBER TWO MOVING INTO SONORA WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST
AND PRETTY MUCH BE GONE BY TUESDAY. BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND HELP CONTINUE PULLING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO NM. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRYING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY
WITH THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
PRODUCE A DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SONORA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING HARD TO FIND BY TUESDAY.
BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MORE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE
BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING NM WED...HELPING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP COMING INTO NM.
THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ASIDE FROM THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE COME TO AN AGREEMENT OF A MORE PROGRESS
TROUGH CROSSING NM WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING AFTER THAT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL STILL INSISTS ON A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS POTENT AS ITS PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE GFS AND NOW THE EUROPEAN. TRIMMED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS SHARPLY OVER NM FRIDAY IS NOW
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
WIND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH MAY REACH NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE OVERALL STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE MOIST AND COOL TO START WITH
A BIG DRYING AND WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS IS SHIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NM...WHILE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 ARE PICKING UP WETTING RAINFALL. FARTHER NORTH STORMS ARE
DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SECOND WAVE
OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH EVEN SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE EAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE
MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN.

RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH AS MOISTURE SLOWLY SCOURS OUT OF THE LOWER TERRAIN.
VENT RATES WILL BE THE BEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND MUCH
LOWER BOTH DAYS. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES
WITH HARDLY ANY WIND ALOFT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AND TEMPS WILL
BE RELEGATED BY STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. THE RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN
TO BREAK DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AS A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR AVIATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NM IS SLIDING NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE NOT EVEN RESOLVING THE CURRENT WEATHER
VERY WELL...AND MANY IMPORTANT MID AND UPPER FEATURES ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF RAINFALL AND LOW CLOUDS IS
ON THE LOW-MODERATE END. TIMED TAF IMPACTS FROM CURRENT TRENDS AT
KGUP/KAEG/KABQ/KROW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME ACTIVITY WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. A BACK-DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALSO PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. THE AREA
AROUND KROW MAY SEE THE LONGEST DURATION IMPACTS WITH RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS ALL NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  72  47  71 /  10  10   5  20
DULCE...........................  36  68  37  65 /  20  20  10  30
CUBA............................  40  67  41  65 /  20  20  20  30
GALLUP..........................  40  69  40  68 /  20  20  10  30
EL MORRO........................  39  66  40  65 /  30  40  20  30
GRANTS..........................  39  68  41  67 /  20  20  10  30
QUEMADO.........................  42  66  42  66 /  20  40  20  30
GLENWOOD........................  44  74  44  73 /  20  30  20  20
CHAMA...........................  33  64  33  62 /  20  30  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  66  45  63 /  20  20  20  20
PECOS...........................  42  64  43  60 /  20  20  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  35  65  36  63 /  30  30  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  38  55  38  55 /  40  40  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  30  61  32  60 /  30  40  30  30
TAOS............................  36  66  37  64 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  39  63  41  61 /  20  30  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  45  71  46  68 /  10  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  44  65  44  62 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  69  45  66 /  10  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  69  51  67 /  20  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  51  71  52  70 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  72  51  71 /  10  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  50  71  50  70 /  10  20  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  46  73  48  71 /  10  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  49  72  49  70 /  10  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  49  74  49  73 /  30  40  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  46  68  45  66 /  20  30  20  30
TIJERAS.........................  47  68  47  66 /  20  30  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  40  68  39  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  43  65  42  62 /  20  30  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  46  67  45  65 /  20  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  70  46  68 /  30  40  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  43  65  43  63 /  50  60  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  42  66  43  67 /  20  20  10  10
RATON...........................  40  68  41  70 /  20  20  10  20
SPRINGER........................  41  69  41  69 /  10  20  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  65  40  61 /  20  20  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  48  72  48  72 /  10  20  10   5
ROY.............................  45  69  46  67 /  10  20  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  48  74  48  72 /  10  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  48  72  49  69 /  10  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  75  49  73 /  10  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  49  72  48  71 /  20  30  30  20
PORTALES........................  49  73  48  71 /  20  30  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  73  49  70 /  20  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  52  73  51  71 /  30  50  30  40
PICACHO.........................  47  67  48  65 /  30  50  30  40
ELK.............................  46  64  46  63 /  30  60  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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