


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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388 FXUS65 KABQ 292305 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 505 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 457 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain of New Mexico. Slow storm motion will keep a low risk for flash flooding, mainly on recent burn scars. - Abundant moisture returns Monday through Thursday allowing for greater coverages of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. These will be efficient rain producing storms which will increase the risk of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and roll off the high terrain toward the south and southeast through this evening. Some models are suggesting that a cluster of storms will develop across east central NM this evening. If this occurs, there will be higher chances for heavy rainfall along the I-40 corridor, but confidence is only moderate as the ARW, HRRR and RRFS only have spotty storms across this area. Any storms should diminish by midnight or 1am. Monday continues to look much more active. A back door front will enter northeast NM and make to the I-40 corridor during the morning hours. Behind the front, winds will veer around to the east by the afternoon. Meanwhile, low level southeasterly return flow will also increase across southeast portions of the CWA. At H7, the high center will shift from AZ today to CO on Monday. This will allow for deep easterly flow across eastern NM. Moist upslope flow onto the Central Mountain Chain will allow numerous storms to develop in the afternoon. With PWATs rising, these will be efficient rain producing storms with multiple areas of heavy rainfall likely. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for both the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar and the burn scars surrounding Ruidoso. Storms will expand across eastern NM through Monday afternoon and evening, with all locations having good chances at precipitation. A relative enhancement in storms may occur along the remnant frontal boundary. Storms will not be as numerous along and west of the Rio Grande Valley, but moisture will be sufficient for scattered storms. Given slow storm motions, heavy rainfall and flash flooding is also a concern outside of burn scars. The Flash Flood Watch may be expanded if additional heavy rainfall locations become more certain. The storms along the Central Mountain Chain, specifically around the Sandia Mountains, should produce a strong outflow boundary resulting in a strong gap wind in the ABQ (and to a lesser extent, Santa Fe) metro area Monday evening. Gusts could reach 50 mph in the ABQ Metro. The east winds will push the more potent moisture westward and additional storms may form along this boundary as it makes it way to the AZ border. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The influx of moisture across western NM should set the stage for more storms across western NM Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is lower regarding the extent of storm coverage across eastern NM. With abundant cloud cover left over from Monday`s activity, nearly moist adiabatic mid level lapse rates, and cooler temperatures forecast, it may be too stable for abundant storms for eastern NM. However, if an MCV develops Monday evening and lingers across eastern NM, that may throw a wrench into that thinking, as the MCV may provide enough lift for additional storms. Meanwhile, the fresh influx of moisture across western NM, combined with continued steep mid level lapse rates, should allow for scattered to numerous storms with the potential for heavy rainfall given the slow storm motions. On Wednesday, the upper high will weaken further as an upper low inches eastward across CA. Southerly flow aloft will return and continue on Thursday, though may be a little more southwesterly on Thursday. Both days look to be very active with 1" PWATs potentially as far west as the AZ border. The aforementioned low will weaken into a trough and cross NM on Friday, ushering in drier air aloft. This should substantially limit the storm coverage on Friday and Saturday. Best bet for storms each day will be across northeast NM as storms roll off the higher terrain in CO. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The focus for storms will continue over eastern NM this evening. A few storms may be strong while moving southeast along the Caprock and TX/NM border. Wind gusts near 50KT, brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and frequent lightning strikes may lead to MVFR cigs/vsbys from direct hits. A large outflow boundary from convection over eastern NM will move west across the central mt chain after 7pm. Gap winds may gust to between 15 and 25KT from KSAF to KABQ and KONM thru midnight. Mid level cigs over eastern NM will linger thru sunrise. A much larger crop of SHRA/TS will blossom along the central mt chain after 11am Monday with heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts from any of this activity. Storm motion will be to the south/southeast across northeast NM and toward the south and southwest over central and southern areas. Any direct hits may produce brief IFR Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Several hours of single digit RH will persist through early evening along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. A few dry storms will be possible across the West Central Basin and Range. A weak gap wind in the Rio Grande Valley this evening will increase low level moisture across the west, limiting single digit RH coverage, and increasing the potential for thunderstorms Monday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern NM, some with heavy rain, but storms may be a mix of wet and dry across western NM. A strong gap wind in the Rio Grande Valley Monday evening will send richer moisture westward, setting the stage for scattered to numerous thunderstorms across all areas Tuesday through Thursday. Drier air will punch in on Friday, limiting storm coverage significantly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 97 62 91 / 0 5 5 10 Dulce........................... 48 88 46 85 / 0 40 10 50 Cuba............................ 53 87 54 82 / 0 30 20 40 Gallup.......................... 46 94 55 88 / 0 5 10 20 El Morro........................ 52 87 55 82 / 0 20 20 40 Grants.......................... 49 90 54 85 / 0 20 20 40 Quemado......................... 54 91 57 85 / 0 20 20 50 Magdalena....................... 60 88 58 80 / 5 40 40 60 Datil........................... 55 86 54 79 / 5 30 30 50 Reserve......................... 52 95 52 89 / 5 30 20 60 Glenwood........................ 56 96 57 91 / 10 40 20 60 Chama........................... 47 81 45 77 / 0 50 20 60 Los Alamos...................... 61 79 56 76 / 0 60 30 70 Pecos........................... 54 81 54 74 / 5 70 40 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 79 50 77 / 5 70 30 60 Red River....................... 43 69 43 68 / 5 70 40 60 Angel Fire...................... 38 71 41 69 / 5 80 40 50 Taos............................ 50 81 50 79 / 0 70 30 40 Mora............................ 47 76 48 72 / 5 80 40 60 Espanola........................ 59 89 57 85 / 0 60 30 50 Santa Fe........................ 59 83 57 77 / 5 60 40 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 86 57 80 / 5 60 30 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 90 62 84 / 0 40 40 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 91 63 85 / 0 30 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 93 62 86 / 0 30 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 92 63 85 / 0 30 30 20 Belen........................... 62 96 62 88 / 0 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 63 93 62 86 / 0 30 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 61 94 60 86 / 0 30 30 20 Corrales........................ 63 93 62 87 / 0 30 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 61 95 62 86 / 0 30 30 20 Placitas........................ 64 88 61 82 / 0 40 30 40 Rio Rancho...................... 64 93 63 86 / 0 30 30 30 Socorro......................... 67 97 64 88 / 0 30 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 85 56 78 / 0 50 30 40 Tijeras......................... 59 87 58 80 / 5 50 40 40 Edgewood........................ 55 85 54 78 / 5 60 40 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 85 52 77 / 10 50 40 50 Clines Corners.................. 55 78 53 72 / 20 50 50 60 Mountainair..................... 56 86 55 77 / 10 50 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 55 85 55 77 / 10 50 50 50 Carrizozo....................... 63 87 61 79 / 10 50 50 60 Ruidoso......................... 55 78 54 70 / 10 60 50 80 Capulin......................... 51 75 52 73 / 40 80 50 30 Raton........................... 52 79 53 77 / 20 80 50 30 Springer........................ 52 80 54 77 / 10 80 40 40 Las Vegas....................... 52 77 51 73 / 10 80 50 60 Clayton......................... 60 80 59 78 / 40 50 60 20 Roy............................. 57 80 57 74 / 30 70 60 40 Conchas......................... 63 87 61 80 / 40 70 60 50 Santa Rosa...................... 61 85 60 75 / 50 60 60 50 Tucumcari....................... 62 85 61 79 / 40 60 70 50 Clovis.......................... 65 85 63 79 / 40 60 80 60 Portales........................ 64 87 62 80 / 30 60 80 60 Fort Sumner..................... 63 89 62 80 / 40 60 70 60 Roswell......................... 68 90 67 82 / 30 50 70 60 Picacho......................... 61 86 60 77 / 20 70 60 70 Elk............................. 58 83 57 76 / 10 70 50 70 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...42