Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 151738 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

As drier mid level air sweeps into western and central New Mexico,
storm development will be inhibited there and confined to the eastern
plains of the state. A few strong to severe cells will be possible
with brief heavy downpours, gust downburst winds, and large hail. Any
reductions to MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibility will be brief during
downpours. Outside of storms prevailing winds will be moderate with
occasional gusts to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Storms should
diminish and exit New Mexico by mid evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION...308 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017...
A drying trend is in play through mid week, with storms limited to
the Eastern Plains today where a few may become strong to severe near
the Texas border. A backdoor front may spark a storm or two across
the Northeast Plains Wednesday, but otherwise dry conditions will
prevail with daytime temperatures generally at or below normal.
Western New Mexico will remain dry through the end of the week and
into Saturday, while moisture is recharged by yet another backdoor
front across the Eastern Plains Thursday. Look for an uptick in
storms across Eastern New Mexico going into the end of the work week
thanks to the backdoor front. Moisture will stream north across the
region Sunday into early next week, leading to a significant uptick
in storm coverage across all of New Mexico.


Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough
digging into the Intermountain West, while a dry slot rotates under
the base of the trough across Arizona and into New Mexico. The 00z
KFGZ upper air sounding showed the dry slot nicely, with virtually no
moisture above 600mb and a PWAT of only 0.51". This dry atmosphere
will work-over western New Mexico today and focus storms across the
Eastern Plains. A few strong to severe storms are likely later today
between Clovis, Tucumcari and Clayton once again, where sbCAPE values
will approach 3500 J/Kg with LIs of -9C. Bulk shear isn`t too
impressive at 15 to 25kts, which will limit storm mode. Large hail
and damaging winds will once again be the primary threats. Elsewhere,
very little in the way of storm coverage is forecast, with daytime
temperatures generally within a couple degrees of normal.

Dry air will overtake most of the state Wednesday and lead to a
significant downtrend in convection, with the only storm potential
across the Northeast Plains thanks partially to a weak backdoor
front. Western New Mexico will remain dry Thursday, but chances for
storms across the east are trending up thanks to a stronger backdoor
frontal push. A few storms may become severe late Thursday near the
frontal boundary across the East Central Plains close to the Texas
border, where the latest NAM12 is showing sbCAPE of 3500-4000 J/Kg,
LIs of -8 to -10C and improved 0-6km bulk shear of 30-35kts.

Look for a downtrend in storm coverage and a slight uptrend in
daytime temperatures Fri/Sat as the upper high shifts/builds
northwest into New Mexico. Both the 00z ECMWF and GFS show the
upper high shifting back to the southeast over central Texas late in
the weekend and into early next week, as an upper level trough carves
out along the California coastline. This pattern will allow
plentiful atmospheric moisture to stream north over AZ/NM and will
lead to a significant uptick in storm coverage.



West to southwest flow aloft ahead of an unseasonably deep upper
level trough moving east across the western CONUS is ushering in
drier air into western and central NM today. Afternoon and evening
convection will favor areas east of the central mountain chain
today. Wednesday continues to look like the driest day in quite
sometime as dewpoint temperatures crater into the 30s across much of
the area. All but the far northeast plains will see shower and storm
chances non-existent. Latest weather prediction models, however, are
stronger with a backdoor boundary for Wednesday night and Thursday.
Chances for showers and storms return to the northern mountains
(especially Sangres), central highlands and eastern plains Thursday
afternoon and evening. Several strong to severe storms are possible
across the eastern plains Thursday evening.

Subtropical/Four Corners high rebuilds over NM Friday. Convection
will favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain. By
Saturday, the upper high is forecast to shift southeastward,
allowing some mid and low level moisture to return to the RGV and
southwest mountains. Models continue idea of brining up a potent
subtropical easterly wave from the south on Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and intensity
Sunday into early next week.





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