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000
FXUS65 KABQ 071152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 AND 35 KT
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. CLOUD BASES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT WHERE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG GUSTS TO 30 TO
40KT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAINLY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SATURDAY IF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. QUIET
WEATHER WITH A WARMUP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAKING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM A HEADACHE. NAM INSISTS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE ECMWF/GFS STILL ON
BOARD DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW BACK OUT OVER SW NM BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO AGREE THE NE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF
THIS...AND GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A QPF/SNOW BOMB OVER THE NE THAT
STILL SEEMS OVERDONE. COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WIND SHIFT...IS
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...AND RUC SHOWS IT
COULD REACH THE FAR NE IN TIME FOR LUNCH AT THE CLAYTON DAIRY QUEEN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS STARTING AT 6 PM AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG RATON
MESA...AND PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND HAVE FAVORED
THE ECMWF/GFS PATTERN WISE...WHICH PUSHES AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV
EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND SATURDAY OF INCREASING POPS
WEST AND DECREASING EAST. MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS...DEPENDING ON
12Z MODEL TRENDS.

CLEARING STILL INDICATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE NE MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR LACK OF. ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BEHIND IT. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A NOTABLE COOLDOWN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR TODAY...SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL IN
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL
BE EXCELLENT IN MOST ZONES...AND WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEFORE DUSK.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INVADE EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE FAR PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN
WILL INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE SPILLING BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS
AND INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS...INDUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS. THESE WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUPPORT FROM ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FULLY SHIFT SOUTH OF NM BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY STAGNATE OVER SOME CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND STRONGER BREEZES WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER
VENTILATION RATES. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

THE PATTERN THEN FLIPS BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION LATE TUESDAY.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>515-527>531.

&&

$$