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000
FXUS65 KABQ 191547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
947 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
WINDS FROM KCQC TO KCVN ARE ALREADY GUSTING PRETTY GOOD THIS
MORNING...AND BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EASTERN AREAS WILL MIX
UP TO AROUND 550 MB AGAIN TODAY WHERE THERE RESIDES ALMOST 50KT
FLOW. SO BASED ON THE STRONG MIXING AND A HEALTHY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM.
BASED ON THESE STRONGER WINDS...HAVE ALSO ADDED BLDU TO THE GRIDS.
NPW ALREADY OUT...ZFP UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...605 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH EARLY MON WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE. LOW LEVEL...GENERALLY
WESTERLY...FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 33 AND 40KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC. SOME
SPOTTY INSTANCES OF BLDU NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY LOWER
TERRAIN OF THE EAST. SPOTTY HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO NEARLY 50 KT. LATTER NOT
GENERALLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS CHANCES LOWER TODAY AT TAF SITES
THAN SAT AFTN. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES FORECAST. WINDS AND CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE EARLY TO MID
EVE LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS MOST OF TONIGHT.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SUITE SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL LOCALES
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN MTS REPORTING TRACE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. EVEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED. THE 06Z
NAM SUGGESTS THE UPPER JET CORE AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS THRU THE DAY IN THIS AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO COVER LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BE UP TO AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL WITH
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY TODAY
FOR AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 FROM CLINES CORNERS TO TUCUMCARI BUT
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE IS
LIMITED.

MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY VORT AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND DELIVER
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MONDAY. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD SINCE CHANCE POPS
STILL COVERED FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN
NEARBY AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CLOUD COVER. AGAIN A NEAR REPEAT FOR THE EAST WITH CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS LIKELY. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
MIN TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL...HOWEVER IT WILL ACTUALLY BE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZES FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS...CHAMA...DULCE...EL MORRO...AND PERHAPS EVEN GALLUP.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EAST TUESDAY
BRINGING BETTER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPS...FINALLY ENDING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CREST OVER THE STATE WITH OVERALL VERY NICE
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY AND BE A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER NUISANCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD STATEWIDE. THE DRYLINE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IS JUST
ABOUT TOAST NOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SOME STORMS TO FIRE UP WOULD BE FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN TRENDS
THAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO TX. BACK TO THE FIRE DANGER...IT
APPEARS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME
A PROBLEM FROM ABOUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
SW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR FOR MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS THROUGH MONDAY THEN WINDS EASING...

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH AGAIN TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA...ENOUGH FOR CONTINUATION OF CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR
E SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON EAST AND...A LITTLE MORE MARGINALLY
SO...THE MIDDLE TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS TODAY NOT TOO MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN ON SAT...A LITTLE HIGHER IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST HALF
OF NM...BUT AFTN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER EAST AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTH. RH VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SAT MORE AREAS
THAN NOT. EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN WARNED AREA. STILL A FEW TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLAYTON
TO LAS VEGAS TO ZUNI PUEBLO. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME TODAY BUT
STILL EXCELLENT VENT RATES. OVER BULK OF AREA EXPECT FAIR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT.

FOR THIS CURRENT EVENT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MON WILL BE THE LAST
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY...COVERING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EASE DOWN ONE
MORE DAY...BUT ONLY A LITTLE. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE
RISK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COVERS A MORE
RESTRICTED AREA THAN TODAY OR SAT. PREVIOUS FIRE WX WATCH FOR FIRE
WX ZONES 106...107 AND 108 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. MIN RH
VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE WARNING AREA...MID TEENS THROUGH
20S ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...MAINLY TO EAST
OF NW PLATEAU. EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN ITS
WAKE.

DRY SCENARIO ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TUE AND WED. MID TO LATE
WEEK...MODELS ARE STILL GENERALLY SUPPORTING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH.
WEAK RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT CONDITIONS NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CRITICAL LVL WINDS AT THIS TIME FOR THIS PERIOD. MAY BE A
DRY LINE SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TO ITS EAST WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL RISK
OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL BE OF THE WET
VARIETY. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-529-532>535.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.

&&

$$

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