Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 171808
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1208 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH PRESSURE TO WANDER VERY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ISOLD
TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE...MOST BETWEEN 18Z AND
ROUGHLY 04Z. HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED FIRST WITH AT LEAST A FEW
DRIFTING S AND SW ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN AREAS AFTER 19Z OR 20Z.
STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE SFC WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45KT...
AND BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS DUE TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN.
TAF SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS SAF WITH ABQ AND LVS RUNNER
UP CANDIDATES.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD CLOSER TO NEW
MEXICO TODAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF THE STATE AS WELL AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SEEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO...LEADING TO
A SUPPRESSION OF MOST STORMS THERE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...BUT OVERALL A SIMILAR TREND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT TRANSFORMATION TO THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO UNFOLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN WORKING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE UPPER
MIGRATES EAST...AND THIS WILL DRAW IN ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO NEW MEXICO...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WITHIN THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO DURING THIS TUESDAY TO THURSDAY
STRETCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST WITH THE CENTROID LOCATED IN NORTHERN AZ AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT CLOSER TO NM TODAY. SOME SUBTLE
DRYING IN THE EASTERN TIER OF NM WILL OCCUR WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND NW NM. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE FOCAL POINTS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...WITH MOST CELLS PROPAGATING FROM NE TO SW AND SOME
GRADUALLY FILLING INTO ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS TOWARD THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE YESTERDAY`S
READINGS.

AS MONDAY UNFOLDS THE HIGH WILL BE SITTING RIGHT OVER NM WITH SOME
SUBTLE DRYING STILL CONTINUING IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A DEMARCATION OF WIND
DIRECTIONS WHILE INDUCING SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY. THIS COULD IGNITE A FEW STORMS
WHILE THE HIGH TERRAIN ZONES PRODUCE A CROP OF STORMS COMPARABLE
TO TODAY`S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
TODAY.

BIGGER CHANGES TO THE PATTERN ARE SLATED TO UNFOLD EARLY
TUESDAY...LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT REVAMPING OF POP...WEATHER...AND TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ELEMENTS WAS PERFORMED THIS MORNING. THE PATTERN IS A
COMPLICATED ONE...A SCENARIO THAT IS BEING DEPICTED WITH SOME
VARIATIONS BY DIFFERENT MODEL MEMBERS...HOWEVER THE MAIN BY-
PRODUCT OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS IS AN UPTICK IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO A WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOISTURE WILL BE STAGED IN SONORA
AND SOUTHERN AZ EARLY TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHERN CA AND THE UPPER HIGH QUICKLY RELOCATES TO THE GULF
COAST. THIS WILL QUICKLY DRAW THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. ALSO OF
NOTE WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ESSENTIALLY
DUE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CA LOW. WHILE NOT AN IMMEDIATE PLAYER IN
THIS MID WEEK STRETCH OF WEATHER...IT WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT
ATTENTION. POPS IN THE WEST WERE INCREASED AND TEMPERATURES
LOWERED FOR TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE GFS CONTINUES TO STREAM COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO
NM...BUT THE ECMWF TRIES TO SLOW THIS DOWN SOME WITH WESTERLY FLOW
GETTING CLOSER TO NM FROM THE NORTH AND THE CA LOW RETROGRADING
WESTWARD SOME. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS WOULD RUN THE
MOISTURE OUT OF NM...SO HAVE STEERED CLOSER TO WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...ONE THAT HAS HELD CONTINUITY BETTER OVER THE PAST 3
DAYS. THUS...POPS WERE RAISED SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY AND EVEN
INTO THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
STATE. HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM
ANY STORM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
KINEMATICS AND STRONG STEERING FLOW TO KEEP INDIVIDUAL CELLS
MOVING AT FAIRLY BRISK PACES...HOPEFULLY FAST ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
FLOODING THREAT.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY...FOCUSING BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...AND ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. HAINES OF 5 TO 6 WILL
BE STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY. LATE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST...WHERE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES MAY BE JUST FAIR TO POOR
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE LATE DAY HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE 15 PERCENT
AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

MODELS CONTINUE THEIR RECENTLY ESTABLISHED TREND OF DRAWING A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK. TIMING SEEMS TO
BE A LITTLE QUICKER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...AND THE SURGE COULD
START AS SOON AS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD...AND SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF
HAS SURPRISINGLY TRENDED TOWARDS A PARTIAL DUD BY STARTING TO
STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH MORE THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHILE IT/S GUIDANCE POPS FOR KABQ HAVE DECREASED DRASTICALLY
INTO THE TEENS FOR WED. GFS STILL GENERATES A BOAT LOAD OF
PRECIPITATION WED AND DOESN/T BRING IN THE STRONGER AND DRIER
WESTERLIES UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK...SO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHFUL OF
TRENDS. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS STILL MAINTAIN MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL...AND SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TODAY/MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES FORECAST FOR WED/THURS CENTRAL AND WEST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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