Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 290531 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1131 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
...WITH POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AT KSAF EARLY MORNING. IN ADDITION...
SHORT-LIVED IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KLVS AND PERHAPS KTCC. MVFR CIGS
LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW AT KGUP BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. TWO STORMS WILL IMPACT NM
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THIRD IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM NOW OVER NRN AZ WILL MOVE ENE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING PRIMARILY NORTHERN ZONES A NICE ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WE
WILL THROW IN THUNDER AS WELL...WITH NEAR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
OVER FAR NE NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS STUBBORNLY STAYED OVER NE NM TODAY. CAO TEMP
IS 51 WITH A DEWPOINT OF 37. TCC DEWPOINT IS 42...WHILE TO THE S
AND W OF THESE SITES DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY ABOVE 8500 FEET INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
MOVES ENE ACROSS SRN CO DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE N. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. BUT A SECOND STORM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WITH PRECIP
GEARING UP SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE S ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND RIP THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
CNTRL MTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. THE BEST QPF WITH THIS SECOND
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE OVER THE E...AND ESPECIALLY NE.

DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER
STORM COULD IMPACT NM NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1900L THIS EVENING.  AFTER
THAT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG IN SOME AREAS WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CO/NM BORDER ON FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.  THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHWARD INTO AZ AS
THE FIRST SYSTEM TRIES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM CO INTO NE
ON SATURDAY. THE NE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
INTO NM...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BELOW THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL
DRAW IT WITH VIGOR INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR EAST CANYON WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 60 MPH RANGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY EXTEND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNT TAYLOR REGION AND
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. MODELS SHOW THE SECOND SYSTEM FILLING AS IT LIFTS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND STALLS.  THIS COULD SPELL A WET
PERIOD FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARENT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE
SYSTEM MAY SPREAD A CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IF IT CAN EXIT SLOWLY
EASTWARD. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR WETTING
PRECIP WITH SMALLER CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COOLER AIR FUNNELING INTO EASTERN AREAS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION THERE MONDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS ON WHETHER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OR A
THIRD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-527.

&&

$$

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