Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191141 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A batch of low clouds has developed over portions of the high central
plains this morning. It is unlikely this will impact any of the TAF
sites, and will likely burn off after sunrise. VFR conditions will be
the rule today with light prevailing winds. A few thunderstorms are
possible off the high terrain of the central and SW mtns. Erratic and
gusty winds and lightning will be the main concern with any passing
shower or storm. Easterly gap winds will pick up a bit this evening
and overnight as sfc moisture pushes back west into the Rio Grande
Valley, with winds dying down once again early Tuesday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017...

A strong high pressure system will build back over New Mexico from
the west with a warming trend today through Thursday. High
temperatures will peak around 5 to 15 degrees above normal Wednesday
and Thursday when some high temperature records will be possible. A
string of days with triple-digit high temperatures is expected over
the Northwest Plateau, Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley, San
Francisco River Valley, and east central and southeast plains. The
length and intensity of this heat wave will pose a risk to public
health. There will also be a chance for thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening through mid week. Some storms over central and western
areas will produce gusty winds with little or no precipitation. A
broad upper level trough will carve into the northern and central
Rockies starting Friday, shifting the high pressure system south of
New Mexico and sending a moist back door cold front through the
state with welcome relief from hazardous heat.


Modest low level moisture will continue to stream into the state
from the southeast today with mainly isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains and south central highlands. Some
cells will probably drift south and southeastward over adjacent
lowlands during the evening. With PWATs struggling to reach a half
inch, cells west of the central mountain chain won`t produce much
rain. There will be a convective repeat Tuesday and Wednesday, though
models suggest a couple shortwave troughs will clip the NE corner of
the forecast area in NW flow aloft both days. This could result in a
few strong to severe storms east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
during the afternoon and evening.

The big weather story this week will be the oppressive heat, which
actually got started a couple days ago around Glenwood. Highs have
reached 105 F or high there the past couple days, and will likely
continue to do so through Thursday. So, a Heat Advisory is being
issued for that zone with this morning`s forecast package. Will also
issue an Excessive Heat Watch for the NW Plateau and Middle Rio
Grande Valley, where triple-digit high temperatures are expected
Tuesday through Thursday. This will be a significant stretch of
hazardous readings for these areas. The east central and southeast
plains will join in the act Wednesday and Thursday, but will delay a
Watch there until possibly tomorrow morning. The mid level high
pressure center aloft looks to sustain 596 DAM through at least
Wednesday before weakening while shifting southward Friday.

The long wave trough will send a moist back door cold front through
the state from the northeast Friday and Friday night with much cooler
temperatures and more widespread precipitation during the coming
weekend. The arrival time of the front is a bit uncertain with the
GFS about 30 hours faster and quite a bit stronger than the ECMWF.
If the GFS is right, the front will produce a moderately gusty east
canyon wind in the central valley Friday night. If the ECMWF is right
the heat wave may persist through Friday, at least in the west.



The brief cool trend will end abruptly with temperatures rebounding
over NM Monday and through the week. The upper ridge, elongated over
the desert SW, will build and become more symmetrical over the AZ/NM
border over the next 24-48 hrs. Sfc moisture trapped beneath the
ridge will recycle each day via afternoon thunderstorm activity,
favoring the higher terrain over the central and SW mtns. Dry tstms
are likely west of the central mtn chain with dry lightning and
erratic gusty winds being the main concern. Sfc moisture will slosh
over the eastern plains, and will slowly erode each day with drier
air pushing in from the west Thursday. The SE flow over the eastern
plains may provide enough sfc moisture and instability to the NE
plains where a few isolated severe storms could form Tuesday

Zonal flow with short-wave troughs passing along the Canadian border
will flatten the ridge and push it south a bit into old Mexico later
in the week. This will enhance the W/NW flow over NM drying out the
eastern plains. Overnight RH recoveries will be quite good Monday
morning, and still remain fair Thursday morning. Daytime MinRH`s
will see teens push into the eastern plains Wednesday with single
digits over much of the state Thursday afternoon. Haines 6,
consistently over western NM early in the week will push into
eastern NM Thursday. Vent rates begin to improve over the eastern
plains Monday, improving to excellent by mid-week with MixHgts
rising significantly as well. While critical fire weather will be
limited by light prevailing wind, areas of super haines will be
present over northwest NM Wednesday, becoming more widespread over
western NM Thursday.

Relief to record breaking heat may arrive by next week with another
backdoor front over the eastern plains. As with the previous front
this weekend, next weekends front will help cool temperatures and
enhance low level moisture. Models are in good agreement pushing the
front into western NM to the continental divide. However the GFS
solution brings in the front Friday night, with the ECM bringing it
through Saturday night.


Showers and storms are diminishing over the SW mtns tonight with
remnant cloud cover that is expected to clear out through the early
morning hours. VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF cycle
with another round of isolated storms Monday afternoon off the higher
terrain of the central mtn chain and Gila mtns. Prevailing winds
will be light and moderate, with erratic and gusty conditions
possible under or near any showers or storms Monday afternoon/evening.



Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
evening for the following zones... NMZ501-519.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for the
following zones... NMZ509.


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