Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 311732 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH/TS WILL FIRE UP...INITIALLY OVER THE MTNS...AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE. CELLS WILL TEND TO BE HIT AND MISS SO USING VCSH FOR
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. DOES APPEAR THAT TCC/LVS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF TS IMPACTS SO INDICATED THAT WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SH.
BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CUMULUS FIELD CANT RULE OUT
IMPACTS AT SAF BUT MAINLY OUTFLOW WIND WITH A PASSING SH. USED
VCSH TO CAPTURE THAT ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELING...CELLS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF ROW AND TO THE
SOUTH/WEST OF AEG/ABQ. WILL MONITOR ACCORDINGLY. LESS OF A CHANCE
FOR LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS. ONE
MODEL IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT BUT THREE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC SO WILL GO WITHOUT IN THE
18Z TERMINAL FORECAST ISSUANCE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK
AND USHER IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING SEASON. SHALLOW
MOISTURE BENEATH THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME LOCALLY STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT AND BREEZES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS
OF THE SEASON...WITH PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS APPROACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA
BY LATE WEEK AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z KABQ RAOB AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NW ALOFT ALOFT...WHILE 09Z SFC OBS INDICATE MOIST EAST TO SE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED IN A FEW AREAS...PARTICULARLY AROUND KROW. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 588DM H5 RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NM WITH 700MB TEMPS
NEAR +14C. THIS WILL FORCE TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS TYPICAL OF
JUNE WITH WARM TEMPS AND MOISTURE RECYCLING LEADING TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY
WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN
STORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE STEERING FLOWS
NUDGE STORM CLUSTERS INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE DRY
INTRUSION NOSES EAST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON QUASI-ZONAL FLOW.
THIS WILL ENHANCE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE EAST. TEMPS WILL SOAR ABV NORMAL AND MANY AREAS WILL SEE
THE FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON...WITH A COUPLE UPPER 90S ON
TAP FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL TREND HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BUT KEEP WINDS A BIT BREEZY ALL AREAS.
500-300MB LAYER RH FROM THE GFS AND DGEX PULL SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUD
COVER OFF HURRICANE ANDRES INTO THE DESERT SW THURSDAY WHICH WILL
COOL TEMPS ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES. MID AND LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.

THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BECOMES QUESTIONABLE BY FRIDAY REGARDING
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE H5 LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WHERE REMNANTS OF ANDRES END UP. REGARDLESS...THE
ECMWF/GFS AND DGEX ALL AGREE THAT A STRONG RIDGE WILL PUMP UP
OVER TEXAS WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE DESERT SW WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN STATES TO DOMINATE THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN DRIER...UNSTABLE
AND WINDIER REGIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS
TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE MOST ZONES TODAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST WITH ASSOCIATED DECREASES IN RH. HEATING AND RECYCLED MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN THEN
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS TO BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BOTH DAYS...WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE ON TUESDAY. GOOD
TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION TODAY AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VALUES ON
MONDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND
SURFACE LEE TROUGH BOTH STRENGTHEN. DRIER AIR BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE AS
DOES INSTABILITY WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 MOST ZONES. MIN RH VALUES
WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AND THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN...AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH WILL
LIKELY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THOUGH WITH FUELS IN GOOD SHAPE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER AS DO
TEMPERATURES WHILE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST
LOCATIONS BUT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 MOST
AREAS BOTH DAYS.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUELS AND WINDS DURING THIS
MID WEEK PERIOD TO BEST ASSESS FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

THOUGH EXTENDED MODELS DONT AGREE ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
THE WEST COAST LOW...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD TAP
INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...SOME COURTESY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANDRES... FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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