Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 162340 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Dry westerly flow aloft will persist over NM through tonight. Just a
lone storm has developed across northeast NM, and not expecting
additional development. A weak boundary across eastern NM will push a
bit farther south and west this evening and overnight, though not
expecting much of an east wind into the Rio Grande Valley. Could see
some MVFR/IFR cigs near KCVS/KCVN, but widespread development is not
anticipated. Moisture should continue to seep into NM overnight
across the plains, perhaps leading to isolated/scattered
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Some severe storms are possible.



.PREV DISCUSSION...345 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017...
Quiet conditions are expected again tonight for most of New Mexico
as dry westerly flow will continue through the overnight hours.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the Northeastern
Plains tomorrow as a weak weather system pushes out of Colorado and
into northeast New Mexico. Some thunderstorms Thursday afternoon are
expected to be strong to severe. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the Central Mountains and the Eastern Plains Friday
before expanding westward over the weekend.



The remainder of today through tonight should remain quiet over most
of the forecast area with a fairly dry airmass in place over the
state. Current GOES-16 derived precipitable water values are ranging
from 0.4" over the Four Corners region to about 0.8" near Carlsbad. A
weak wave moving through is helping to fire off some fair weather
cumulus over New Mexico mainly off high terrain and an isolated
shower or so, but otherwise no sensible weather is expected

The pattern will begin to return to a more active regime tomorrow as
a weak frontal boundary will push out of Colorado through NE New
Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle. Models are indicating a line
like structure developing over the NE corner of the state and pushing
south over the NM/OK/TX border. Convective parameters look fairly
favorable with CAPE values in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and LI values
around -3 to -5. Southerly flow will help bring a return flow of Gulf
moisture into the region with PW values surging up to about 1" over
eastern NM with an axis of about 1.3" over the central Texas
Panhandle. Storms look to kick off about 21Z over the Sangre de
Cristos and push into the Eastern Plains through about 06Z. SPC
currently has the area in a Marginal/Slight Risk for severe weather
with the main threats being potentially large hail and winds.

Friday is expected to be somewhat quieter over the state with
scattered convection mainly over the Central Mountains and into the
NE corner of the state. Storms on Friday are expected to be more of
the `garden variety` with only isolated strong storms expected.

Models are continuing to advertise (and are in fairly good agreement)
about the development of a monsoonal burst beginning on Saturday.
The ridge axis is expected to shift eastward over NM with a trough
developing over California and Arizona on Saturday. This will help
push PW values up to 1" over the RGV on Saturday and increasing to
about 1.3" by Monday morning as a closed low develops off the CA
coast. Precipitation coverage (and sky cover) will continue to
increase through the weekend which will help bring temperatures below
normal through the remainder of the forecast. Southerly flow will
allow for some areas to see repeated rounds of precipitation, so
forecasts should be monitored in the coming days to monitor any
potential flood threat.




A trough that passed over the Rockies and into the northern Great
Plains has allowed dry air to overtake New Mexico. This is
inhibiting storm development with just a few fair weather cumulus
taking shape thus far. The seasonal temperatures are persisting, and
humidity has fallen to less than 25 percent in many zones, even less
than 15 percent in parts of the Rio Grande valley and San Juan
basin. Wind speeds have decreased a bit from yesterday`s speeds due
to the absence of stronger flow aloft. Winds have shifted north
northeasterly in the plains due to the proximity of a weak surface
front. This surface boundary will push a bit farther south and west
tonight, but now it is not looking like it will penetrate the
central mountain chain. Thus, no long duration easterly gap/canyon
wind is anticipated tonight into Thursday morning. Fair humidity
recoveries are expected in central and western NM tonight into
Thursday morning, with locally better recoveries in the higher
terrain. In the eastern plains excellent recoveries are expected
where higher dewpoints will continue to seep in.

With the better boundary layer moisture in the far eastern plains,
the stage will be set for isolated to scattered storms Thursday
afternoon. Some storms in the east could turn strong to severe. In
the central and western zones, dry conditions will prevail with
lower humidity values of 15 to 25 percent being common along with
elevated Haines indices. No significant temperature changes are
expected Thursday with readings staying within a few degrees either
side of normal. No wind concerns are foreseen outside of
thunderstorm outflows in the eastern plains.

The moisture will again be distributed very unevenly on Friday with
a dryline acting as a stark demarcation of moisture in the far
eastern plains and very dry air to the west. Isolated to scattered
storms will again develop along and east of the dryline Friday, and
temperature and humidity trends will not differ much from Thursday`s

High pressure aloft will begin building back more centrally over TX
Friday and Saturday with a western extension into NM. Surface winds
will gain a more consistent southerly direction, effectively
ushering in modified subtropical moisture into the state into
Saturday and precipitation chances will slowly start to increase. A
trough aloft will also be drawn toward the CA coast through the
upcoming weekend. High pressure will relax over NM some on Sunday
with the center re-focusing over TX. This will gradually squeeze
some deeper subtropical moisture into a plume over NM, reintroducing
wetting storms Sunday through Tuesday. Haines indices would lower
and humidity would trend upward substantially. High pressure then
appears to slowly build back over NM through the latter half of next





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