Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS65 KABQ 142242
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
342 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear sky and light wind will result in overnight`s lows very
similar to this morning`s. A strong backdoor cold front will drop
southward into eastern New Mexico Monday, resulting in high
temperatures 20 to 30 colder than today. Elsewhere, high
temperatures are not expected to change much. The cold front will
push west into the Rio Grande Valley and western New Mexico Monday
night and remain in place areawide Tuesday. A gradual warming trend
will get underway Wednesday, just as a weak Pacific storm system
moves in. Western New Mexico is the area favored for a few showers
and snow showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak and dry northwest flow aloft remains in place over NM today.
A modified Arctic airmass is now pushing its way south through the
Northern Plains states this afternoon. The front is forecast to drop
into far northeast NM just prior to sunrise Monday. The front will
make high temperature forecasts for eastern NM rather tricky for
Monday with many areas north of I-40 turning colder through the day.
The front banks up against the east slopes of the central mountain
chain by midday, bleeding west through the canyons of the central
mountain chain during the afternoon. Expect southeast winds to at
Santa Fe to develop around noon and east winds at ABQ, Abo Pass and
Carrizozo around mid afternoon. Front continues wwd during the
afternoon, reaching the AZ line several hours after sunset. Models
develop areas of light snow across the northeast quarter Monday
night. The right rear region of an 80kt jet over the southern plains
should be sufficient lift for an inch or two of snow for portions of
the northeast highlands Monday night.

Tuesday remains on track for the coldest day of week areawide. High
temperatures will range from several degrees above seasonal averages
west and 5 to 28 degrees below average central and east. Models now
struggling with how the jet splits over the Great Basin on Tuesday.
ECMWF the most run to run consistent model, brings a 60kt jet streak
through AZ Tuesday night and then closed off a 500mb circulation over
southwest NM at 18Z Wednesday. Associated light showers and snow
showers would favor the western third of so of the state late Tuesday
night into Wed.

Short-wave ridge moves over for Thursday. Ridge axis shifts east on
Friday with increasing southwest flow aloft. GFS and ECMWF remain
relatively consistent with one another with regard to an upper level trough
for next weekend. Both models continue to bring in a fairly deep
trough into NM Saturday and Saturday night. Both models keep the
pattern across the EPAC and western U.S. active beyond next weekend
but differ on the timing of the next long-wave trough passage. Good
news with regard to these troughs is that they`ll have the help of
MJO related convection shifting from its current phase 3 into phases
4 and 5 during the next 10 days. The closed low from last week which
weakened rapidly as it moved east through AZ had no such luck.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry northwest flow tonight. Increasing humidities and gusty north to
northeast winds over far northeast New Mexico will be associated
with a strong cold front scheduled to plunge into eastern plains
after midnight tonight.

The front is expected to reach the east slopes of the central mt
chain as quickly as midday Monday and could push into the Santa Fe
area and the Middle Rio Grande Valley by mid to late afternoon with
gusts to around 30-35 mph. Highs over the eastern plains will fall
by about 20 to 30 degrees Monday, which results in maximums about 5
to 25 degrees below average. Areas along and west of the Continental
Divide will remain 5 to around 10 degrees warmer than average. Light
snow is expected to develop over the Sangre de Cristo mts to the
northeast plains Monday afternoon, then spread across southward
along the east slopes of the central mt chain. Any amounts will be
light with the greater totals of 1-2 inches limited mostly to Zone
103.

Monday night lows will be colder with humidities trending upward for
most locales. The gusty easterly winds into the RGV should diminish
towards sunrise Tuesday. The below normal temperatures continue for
central and eastern New Mexico but the far west will continue to see
above average warmth Tuesday. Widespread poor ventilation rates
expected both Monday and Tuesday.

Forecast models have now backed off an a decent midweek weather
system, and indicate a disturbance will track over western and
southern NM Tuesday night/Wednesday, with meager amounts of
precipitation favoring the higher terrain. Dry weather is expected
Thursday under a transient ridge, then southwest flow at both the
surface and aloft strengthens Friday in advance of a substantial
trough moving toward the Four Corners. Widespread and even wetting
precipitation in the form of higher terrain snow and lower elevation
rain and snow could occur west and central with this system next
weekend.

Vent rates Wednesday and Thursday will remain poor for most areas,
while improving Friday. High temperatures trend warmer Wednesday
through Friday, before cooling Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Dry northwest flow aloft with sfc lee trough developing by 22Z. Cold
front to reach far ne NM by 15/09Z and plunge south and westward
thereafter. North to northeast wind gusts to around 35kt associated
with the frontal boundary and MVFR cigs expected in the wake of the
front, which may reach the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mts
and south and eastward to Interstate 40 and the TX border by 15/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  19  50  21  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  17  49  17  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  21  49  17  41 /   0   0   5   0
Gallup..........................  17  56  16  53 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  13  55  10  50 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  17  55  12  46 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  24  55  22  52 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  31  64  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  13  45  12  41 /   0   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  30  48  23  43 /   0   0   5   0
Pecos...........................  27  43  16  39 /   0   5  20   0
Cerro/Questa....................  20  43  15  38 /   0   5  30  10
Red River.......................  19  37  14  34 /   0  10  30   5
Angel Fire......................   4  42   0  38 /   0  10  30   5
Taos............................  13  47  10  41 /   0   5  20   5
Mora............................  25  41  12  40 /   0  10  30   5
Espanola........................  23  52  18  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  29  44  21  38 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  23  46  14  41 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  31  51  23  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  31  52  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  26  55  19  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  29  53  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  20  55  12  45 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  29  53  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  28  58  21  47 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  28  47  19  36 /   0   0   5   0
Tijeras.........................  25  47  15  38 /   0   0   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  16  46   9  40 /   0   0   5   0
Clines Corners..................  25  38  10  32 /   0   0  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  29  48  15  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  31  53  19  40 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  28  54  16  36 /   0   0  10   5
Capulin.........................  18  25   5  30 /   0  30  50   5
Raton...........................  16  31   8  31 /   0  20  50   5
Springer........................  19  34   6  32 /   0  10  40   5
Las Vegas.......................  20  35   7  31 /   0  10  30   5
Clayton.........................  22  25   6  30 /   0  20  30   5
Roy.............................  21  28   9  28 /   0   5  30   5
Conchas.........................  27  32  15  30 /   0   5  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  26  33  14  29 /   0   5  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  25  32  13  30 /   0  10  10   5
Clovis..........................  26  34  11  28 /   0   5  10   5
Portales........................  26  38  12  30 /   0   0  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  23  34  14  28 /   0   0  10   5
Roswell.........................  25  47  18  30 /   0   0  10   5
Picacho.........................  31  49  17  30 /   0   0  20  10
Elk.............................  31  53  15  32 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

33



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.