Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 182354 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
Shortwave slowly crossing over the forecast area during the next
24-36 hrs. Current convection in the form of SH/TS will continue
to sporadically impact terminal sites during the eve hrs. Based on
latest modeling and radar/satellite trends...it appears that TCC
has the highest potential of experiencing impacts late eve/early
morning. Otherwise...near term effects to AEG/ABQ/SAF and LVS are
likely...especially in the form of outflow wind and VCSH. Cant
rule out TS but not as likely as far as direct impact. Will be
watching SAF tho. Outflow wind gusts btwn 25-35 kt will be common
through 03/04z. Based on the steering flow and position of the
shortwave...decided to go pretty bullish for central terminal
sites in terms of the use of VCSH and VCTS mid/late afternoon Fri.
.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening, with a
similar crop of thunderstorms expected for Friday afternoon.
However, a back door cold front will slide down the plains Friday
night increasing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
The front will push westward through the gaps of the central
mountain chain early Saturday morning, with some breezy gap winds
likely in the Rio Grande Valley. Focus for storm coverage will
shift back to central and western New Mexico on Saturday. Sunday
and Monday may be the most active days of the upcoming week with
numerous storms, locally heavy rain, and perhaps some small hail
as well. A downtrend in storm coverage may be in store mid week.
A decent crop of thunderstorms is ongoing across western and
northern NM, and a similar story is expected for Friday afternoon.
Although, a prefrontal trough across the eastern plains may provide
an additional focus for storm development. The bigger increase in
storm coverage will be Friday evening and overnight when the main
back door front plows through the plains. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and behind the front with locally
heavy rain and small hail possible with the stronger storms. Breezy
to locally windy conditions are also expected behind the front. The
front, perhaps convectively aided, will push westward through the
gaps of the central mountain chain early Saturday morning. Canyon
winds in the Rio Grande Valley should be at least in the 15-25 mph
range with gusts to 35 mph, if not higher.
The influx of low level moisture behind the front to the ContDvd
should set the stage for a somewhat more active Saturday,
particularly btw the ContDvd and the central mtn chain. The eastern
plains will be tricky on Saturday as instability remains a question.
Much cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, generally
70s and low 80s, so the atmosphere is not likely to be as
unstable, thus, less storms.
Most models agree there may be a more significant uptick in storm
coverage on Sunday and Monday, particularly across western and
central NM, though storm motion may take storms into the plains.
Continued low level southeasterly flow through the period should
continue to draw up low level moisture from the Gulf perhaps as far
west as the ContDvd. Additionally, southwesterly flow should
increase, particularly Monday, as a baggy trough/low over SoCal/AZ
shifts E/NE. Thus, plenty of moisture and lift will be in place for
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop. Adding in some weak
shear could allow for a few strong to briefly severe storms as well.
Trough axis should cross NM on Tuesday and Tuesday night which
should shift the best moisture plume east and southeast. Though
there will still be storms, a downtrend is possible, particularly
across the norhtwest third to half of the state. The downtrend may
continue on Wednesday, but may increase again by Friday with another
back door cold front. Stay tuned as models are not in agreement on
the timing of the front.
Showers and storms fired over the northern and western high terrain
again this afternoon, and will track generally to the east and into
the valleys and highlands. Some may survive long enough to reach the
northeast and east central plains by this evening. Brief and locally
heavy rain will be possible from a few of the cells.
Low level moisture to increase in the east central and southeast
plains this evening, and may result in some low clouds by early
Friday morning. A weak northerly wind shift in the northeast and
east central during the day Friday will be followed by a more
vigorous northerly wind Friday night associated with the anticipated
cold front. Some drier air may attempt to push into the northwest
Friday so the focus for wetting showers and storms will shift to the
north central and northeast Friday and Friday night.
The front looks to push low level moisture westward toward the
Continental Divide Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will fall
below average overall Saturday, but the greater deviation from
average will be across the eastern plains. Conditions may be too
stable for thunderstorms over the east Saturday, so the focus for
wetting rain from showers and storms will stretch from the
Continental Divide to the central mountain chain. Spotty fair to
poor vent rates are forecast for the northeast Friday and may become
more widespread along and south of Interstate 40 Saturday.
Sunday and Monday storm chances appear greatest across central and
western NM, and these days may be the most active of early to mid
next week. High temperatures will linger below average for most
locales. Chances for wetting rain may taper down mid to late next
week, but confidence is low in the model solutions.