Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 160558 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1158 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Upper level high pressure building west of NM will provide clear
skies and generally light winds today. A weak lee trough setting up
over northeastern NM will generate southwest breezes at KLVS and KTCC
aft 17Z. Winds will taper off after sunset Monday.



.PREV DISCUSSION...801 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017...
Updated forecast to lower overnight low temperatures for mainly
valley and basin bottom locations. With very light winds at the sfc
and aloft and dewpoint temperatures in the lower teens to lower 20s,
temperatures will fall precipitously overnight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017...
Very dry and cooler conditions prevail behind yesterday`s cold
front, with light winds and daytime temperatures generally below
normal. Look for a warm up going into mid week, with above normal
temperatures returning areawide by Tuesday. Winds will increase
toward the end of the work week ahead of a cold front, forecast to
push through on Saturday. Precipitation chances will come back to the
forecast both ahead of and behind the front through next weekend.


An extremely dry atmosphere prevails over the area per the latest
water vapor satellite imagery, also confirmed by the 12Z KABQ upper
air sounding showing a PWAT of 0.09". Cooler conditions prevail today
behind the cold front, with 24hr observed temperature change values
generally ranging from -10 to -20 across our forecast area. Another
chilly night is forecast, with near ideal radiational cooling
conditions, but not quite cold enough to warrant issuing a Freeze
Warning for the Middle/Lower Rio Grande Valley nor Southeast Plains.

A warm-up is forecast through mid week as an upper level high
strengthens and expands over northern Mexico and the Desert
Southwest. Increasing pressure heights across our area will
correspond with increasing temperatures, as highs reach back above
normal areawide by Tuesday. A batch of mid/high clouds may temper
highs a few degrees on Wednesday, but are still forecast to be above

Winds will increase Friday with a deepening lee side trough as an
upper level trough and associated cold front approach from the west.
The 12Z GFS and ECWMF disagree on the timing of the upper air
feature, but both agree that a low will close off from the upper
level trough and then become cut-off. However, the two models
disagree on the location of the upper low by Sunday, with the GFS
showing it over southern New Mexico and the ECMWF over south central
Texas. These differences are leading to a lower confidence forecast
for next weekend and our forecast represents a compromise of the two
operational runs for now. If we end up closer to the GFS, then next
weekend is looking unsettled and cooler to say the least.



Sunny but cool this afternoon in the wake of last nights cold front.
Nary a cloud in the sky, but poor mixing and light winds will
continue to lead to poor ventilation for the remainder of the day.

A quiet week is in store. A ridge of high pressure will continue to
be centered over Arizona Monday and much of Tuesday, though will
flatten somewhat. This will allow temperatures to quickly warm back
up and Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the week with
temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Ventilation
rates will not change much either, though portions of the east
central plains may improve into the good category both days. Haines
values of 5 will be common across the northeast each day, while
humidities will drop below 15 percent across much of northern and
western NM.

A weak upper level trough will move across on Wednesday, but will do
little other than increase high cloud cover across the state. These
high clouds should act to lower the temperatures a few degrees from
Tuesday`s readings. Mixing heights do improve on Wednesday to allow
for fair to good vent rates across much of the area. However, poor
vent rates will persist across far northwest and north central NM as
well as portions of the Rio Grande Valley.

Another trough, slightly stronger, will move over the state on
Thursday and Thursday night. The GFS is suggesting some mid level
moisture will arrive with this trough, which may potentially result
in virga or isolated light rain showers. Even a stray lightning
strike couldn`t be ruled out. However, the ECMWF is persistent with
its drier scenario, and even less cloud cover would be expected if
the ECMWF is correct. Nonetheless, some light southerly breezes
across the plains will allow for modest Gulf moisture to move up
into the area.

On Friday, a broad upper level trough will move into the PacNW, and
southwesterly flow will begin to increase over NM. This will allow
for good to excellent vent rates to return across all but the east
central plains. As we go into the weekend, models continue to
diverge. The GFS suggests that an upper low will develop out of the
aforementioned trough and move over NM.  The ECMWF has a similar
idea, but doesn`t close off the low until the trough is over Texas.
The latter would be a much drier solution for NM. Regardless, it
looks like another strong cold front will slide through the state on
Saturday. It appears that the back door segment of the front could
have some strong winds associated with it as well.





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