Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 130522 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1122 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOLID STRATUS DECK AND MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY IN DENSE FOG AND -RA/DZ MOST LIKELY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES STRETCHING TO THE SE PLAINS. EMERGENCE
OF A SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AFT MIDNIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS NE NM TOWARD DAYBREAK
WITH FAIRLY RAPID CIG IMPROVEMENT AFT 14Z SAT. FARTHER SOUTH...SOLID
AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE TO PERSIST THROUGH GOOD PART OF SAT
AM WITH ONLY GRADUAL CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON SAT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA VICINITY OF
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 19Z SAT. STORM MOTIONS
LOOK TO BE VERY WEAK TOWARD THE E-NE WITH KGUP THE MOST FAVORED
TAF SITE FOR LATE DAY -SHRA OR -TSRA IMPACTS. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...951 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014...
.UPDATE...
REDUCED POPS MANY AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. EXPANDED FOG TO THE
SOUTH AND MADE IT AREAS OF GO RATHER THEN PATCHY. FOG ALREADY
DENSE IN SRR AND CQC AT ONE HALF MILE. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. ZONES OUT SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FIRST TASTE OF FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING BEHIND A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE FRONT TRIGGERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING SOAKING RAINS. THE
FRONT ALSO TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE
AREA TO FUEL DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAKER BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND HELP TO
RECHARGE THE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHED DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS THEN WEST
INTO THE RIO GRANDE AS FORECAST...BUT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE BEEN A TAD COOLER THAN EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DROPPED INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT AND
HAVE ONLY WARMED A FEW DEGREES SINCE FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HIGH SO FAR AT KABQ IS ONLY 71 (CURRENTLY 69)...WITH STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION COMPETING WITH SURFACE HEATING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ARE FAIRLY COMMON...ALTHOUGH
SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED VERY LITTLE. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND STEERING
FLOW IS LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT. THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WHERE WE HAVE A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
THREAT WILL INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING. SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE HIGHER PWATS AND A MORE SHALLOW FRONTAL
LAYER RESIDE. FURTHER NORTH...WINDS IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL TURN AROUND AND THE FRONTAL LAYER WILL DECREASE IN
DEPTH...ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED THE FOG FORECAST TO THE
NE/CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS/HIGHLANDS. SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY PROVE TO BE THE MORE FOG-PRODUCTIVE NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A
MORE MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN SETS-UP. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LOOKS TO SPIKE MONDAY THANKS TO A WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST. THE
LATEST NAM12 SHOWS THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AFTER MAX HEATING ON MONDAY...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NNW STEERING FLOW MAY BE RAIN-FAVORABLE FOR THE SANTA FE AND
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREAS MONDAY EVENING. SOME COOLING IS FORECAST
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT...BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
CURRENT FRONT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE AND TROPICAL STORM (SOON TO
BE HURRICANE) ODILE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT WE`LL PICK UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE MID TO
LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS
BEEN MOSTLY CLOUD WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY. AREAS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SAW A FEW CLOUDS BUT REMAINED PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I 40. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS SEEN MULTIPLE
HOURS WORTH OF RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA
AND EXISTING SHOWERS COVERED MUCH OF CHAVEZ COUNTY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WERE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE AS MUCH
AS 35 DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
WILL BE EXCELLENT AREAWIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING 2 TO 9
DEGREES BELOW THIS MORNINGS READINGS.

INTO SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY EAST
WINDS WILL COME THROUGH THE CANYONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30`S EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYING
OUT AND ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE EAST
AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING
UP ACROSS THE WEST AND DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. READINGS RANGING FROM
40 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL LOCALES TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CAN BE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE INTO THE
LATE MORNING. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH
POCKETS OF FAIR TO GOOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AGAIN BE
EXCELLENT. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FURTHER WITH ANY ACTIVITY
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE...AND WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS.
DAYTIME MIN RH READINGS WILL TREND DOWN MOST AREAS WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS WITH ANOTHER FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE IN MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. TROPICAL
STORM ODILE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW KEEPING ODILE
OUT IN THE OPEN OCEAN WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE SOUTHWEST REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
AID IN ODILES FINAL DESTINATION. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TO SEE
HOW OR IF NEW MEXICO WILL BE IMPACTED.

21

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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