Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 080525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1025 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

A weak upper level disturbance and associated jet streak will move
across northern and central NM tonight. This system will produce
light snow, mountain obscurations and MVFR to isolated IFR ceilings
across the northern mountains and northeast highlands overnight.
Cloud ceilings across the eastern plains tonight into Friday morning
will remain in the VFR category and range from 050 to 080. Strong
north to northeast low and mid level winds following this system will
produce breezy to windy conditions Friday across the eastern plains
and northeast highlands with gusts of 25 to 30 knots from late
morning through the afternoon. Skies will clear Friday afternoon with
VFR conditions expected.



.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017...
Another cool night is on tap tonight as an upper level trough exits
the area. A secondary disturbance will produce some light snow
showers across northeast New Mexico near the Colorado border. In the
wake of the disturbance breezy to windy conditions will develop
across east central and northeast areas on Friday. The strongest
gusts will probably reach 50 mph from Raton Pass east and
southeastward across Union County. A warming trend will commence Friday
through Tuesday, except for brief cooling mainly in the east with a
back door cold front on Monday.


Another weak disturbance in northerly flow aloft will trigger
scattered to isolated snow showers along the Colorado border from
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward tonight. Up to an inch of
snow accumulation will be possible in spots mainly across the high
terrain. The disturbance is a fair amount warmer than the deeper
upper level trough that it`s following onto the southern plains, so
although the disturbance will produce a northerly wind shift and
stronger winds across the plains Friday, high temperatures will warm
around 6 to 20 degrees above today`s readings.

A strong high pressure system over the west coast today is forecast
to shift inland this weekend, when it will stall over the Great
Basin. It will shield the forecast area from weather systems and
allow temperatures to warm, except for brief cooling in the east with
a back door cold front on Monday. Temperatures are expected to rise
above normal pretty much areawide Saturday, and they are forecast to
remain above normal through the first half of the coming work week,
even with some cooling in the east on Monday.

GFS and ECMWF both depict the ridge breaking down on Tuesday night
and Wednesday as an upper level trough or low pressure system drops
southward along the front range of the Rockies. That system could
could cause temperatures to begin to trend downward again across
northeast areas Wednesday.



Snowfall accumulations ranged from 1 to 4" in the northern mountains
the past 24 hours with around 1 to 2" farther south into the Sandia
and Manzano Mts. Additional light accumulations are likely tonight
as another weak disturbance shifts south into NM. Temps tonight will
be very cold with lots of single digits and teens.

Friday will feature a warming trend as high pressure builds eastward
from the west coast. North winds will be reinforced across northeast
NM Friday afternoon with gusts up to 45 mph possible around Union
and Colfax counties. Very dry air advecting into the area will allow
minimum humidities to fall to near 15% with a few hours of marginal
critical fire weather conditions still expected. Ventilation will
range from poor across western NM to good across eastern NM. Snow
melt and sublimation on Friday will help with humidity recoveries
Saturday morning despite very dry air in the northern mountains.

High pressure will shift eastward Saturday through Tuesday with an
associated deep layer dry intrusion. Surface dewpoints will range
from the single digits in the lower elevations to the teens below
zero in the higher terrain, particularly Sunday and Monday. This
will yield a several day period of minimum humidity values between
10 and 15% with only fair to poor overnight recoveries. Ventilation
will be poor for just about the entire area. Temps will rebound back
above normal through this period.





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