Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 201134 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
434 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR conditions with areas of light snow persist across central New
Mexico, but are not currently impacting TAF sites. Improvement is
forecast this morning with precipitation ending, but mountain
obscurations will persist through mid day. Strong winds will persist
through the morning hours to the lee of the central mountain chain.
A backdoor cold front will slide southwest down the eastern plains
overnight and may result in MVFR cigs at KLVS and possibly KTCC.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...353 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific cold front will continue moving across the eastern plains
this morning. Light snow will end across western and central New
Mexico this morning and will linger across the northern mountains
into the afternoon. Colder air and clearing skies will produce a very
cold temperatures tonight. Another storm system will approach the
region from the west Wednesday and Thursday bringing rain and
mountain snow to western and northern New Mexico late Wednesday
through Thursday. Yet another storm system will track across northern
New Mexico Friday and Friday night, bringing chances for more
precipitation to northern portions of the state. Colder than average
temperatures will settle over the region Tuesday through Saturday
with a return to near normal temperatures for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A Pacific cold front will continue to move eastward across south
central and eastern NM this morning, while a backdoor cold front
remains nearly stationary across the far northeast plains. The upper
level trough over the 4-Corners will weaken and slowly move eastward,
as it becomes absorbed in the broader west southwest cyclonic flow
aloft. Light snows across western and central NM will end this
morning as dynamics associated with the trough shift northward. Weak
dynamics and upslope flow will keep scattered light snow showers in
the forecast across the northern mountains through the afternoon
hours. Clearing skies and lighter winds will allow for strong
radiational cooling tonight across the entire area with low
temperatures falling well below normals for mid February, especially
in areas in the north and west with a fresh snowpack.

Another upper level trough will drop southward into southern CA
Wednesday with increasingly moist southwest flow setting up across
NM. Lowered Wednesday high temperatures below guidance given cold
overnight low temperatures Tuesday night and increasing clouds from
southwest to northeast Wednesday morning. Light showers are expected
to break out across the western and northern NM wednesday afternoon,
mainly in the higher elevations. As the trough progresses eastward
across AZ Wednesday night and deamplifies as it moves across northern
NM Thursday, precipitation will favor the northern portion of the
state, where advisory snowfall amounts will be possible. Another
upper low is forecast to drop into the Southwest Friday and quickly
trek northeastward across far northern NM and southern CO Saturday.
GFS is slower and farther south with this system than is the ECMWF
and Canadian. Appear as if this could be a precipitation producer
for the north at this time, but still significant uncertainty. West
flow and moderating temperatures are likely Sunday and Monday, after
a cold day on Saturday.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Decent coverage of wetting precipitation noted across western and
central New Mexico yesterday through early this morning, but
current round of precipitation will diminish rapidly this
morning. Windy conditions are forecast today across eastern New
Mexico, but with much colder temperatures behind a strong cold
front. Below normal temperatures will persist into Wednesday, with
the return of clouds and chances for wetting precipitation as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west. Vent rates on
Wednesday will be good across much of central and western
portions of the area, but poor across the eastern plains behind
the backdoor segment of the cold front. The best chances
Wednesday night into Thursday will be over the northern high
terrain, where several more inches of snow are likely.

A deep upper low and associated cold front will approach Thursday
into Friday, spreading increasing winds across the area. A few hours
of elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the far
eastern plains Friday afternoon thanks to downslope winds, good
mixing and above normal temperatures. Chances for wetting
precipitation will ramp-up Friday night as the upper low crosses
along the CO/NM border, favoring the western and northern mountains.
Saturday will be colder behind the front, but a rapid warm-up is
forecast Sunday with moderate dry westerly flow leading to the
potential for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions across
the eastern plains.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ505-506.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ515-521-527>529-531>533.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ503-504-508-510-511.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for the
following zones... NMZ512>514-516-518.

High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for the following
zones... NMZ526-540.

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for the following
zones... NMZ523-524.

&&

$$

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