Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 211122 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
The upper high center looks to migrate over NE NM this afternoon
shifting the best moisture plume westward. Iso-Sct -SHRA/-TSRA
will remain possible over the high terrain this aftn, though
should be somewhat of a downtick in coverage compared to yday.
Storm motions will be toward the N/NE. KGUP and KFMN are most
likely to be impacted with storms this aftn/eve. Showers a few
tstms may linger into the overnight hours once again.
.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016...
Modest moisture plume continues over western NM while the high
pressure center aloft will remain to our east. The high will
shift over NM Friday, then to our west Saturday, only to move
back over or very close to NM Sunday and Monday. The high will end
up to our northwest later next week. The back door cold front does
not look as promising over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms
will form each day and continue into the night, favoring western
and central NM.
Moisture tap hanging on over western and central NM while the
upper high over OK begins to drift west today. Another decent
round of showers and thunderstorms will form over the mountains
of west and central NM today then move northwest to north into
tonight. This will leave the eastern plains high and dry again
today. High will be a couple of degrees higher today and remain
above normal, with possibly a record high at Clayton.
The center of the high pressure area aloft will be over NM Friday.
The higher heights/warmer temperatures will put a cap on some of
the storms, with an overall decrease in coverage. Still, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor the western and
central higher terrain. Temperature will inch higher, likely the
warmest day of the forecast period, at least across the eastern
Saturday should be similar to Friday in regards to the areal
coverage of showers and storms. The backdoor cold front for
Saturday night into Sunday is not as robust as advertised the past
few days. Would not be surprised if convection helps push the
front farther south and west than currently shown though. We will
continue with the idea of increased storm coverage Sunday despite
the upper high taking up residence near the four corners region.
The high aloft may briefly shift east Monday before organizing to
our northwest Tuesday and beyond. An weak inverted trough may
pass to our south Monday into Tuesday but not have much of an
impact on our weather. Regardless, Monday and Tuesday will remain
active with a bit of a decrease in coverage likely the case for
Wednesday and Thursday. CHJ
Upper high center east of NM continues to nudge westward early this
morning and should be near or over NE NM by this afternoon. This
should push the best moisture plume westward today, mainly over AZ,
but there should be enough moisture lingering to allow for isolated
to scattered storms this afternoon favoring the high terrain. Storm
motions will be toward the northeast around 10 mph or less. The high
will continue to drift westward and elongate over the southern tier
of the U.S. Friday and Saturday. Thus, the moisture tap from the
south will be disrupted and we will be relying on recycled moisture
for the daily afternoon crop of thunderstorms. With that said,
Friday`s crop of storms should be fewer in coverage than today and
may also be a mix of wet and dry storms. Saturday may also be
similar until the back door front scoots into NE NM in the aftn.
However, the latest models are not as bullish at bringing the front
much past the Colorado border Saturday aftn/eve. Thus, it will
depend on outflow boundaries to push the greater low level moisture
south and westward. At this point, only the NAM model is suggesting
an east wind in the Rio Grande Valley. This will be the determining
factor for how much convection occurs on Sunday west of the central
mtn chain, though the best chances still appear to be across the
east thanks to the influx of better moisture and remnant boundaries.
The high will still be wobbling around over the southern tier states
early next week. Models don`t consolidate and strengthen the high
over the Great Basin until mid to late week now, so weaknesses in
the high could allow for some moisture to stream up from the south
during the early week period. A few disturbances rounding the high
may also provide sufficient lift to aid in thunderstorm development.
By late in the week, back door fronts will be relied upon to provide
upticks in moisture and thunderstorm development.
Near to above normal temperatures remain on tap through the week,
with Friday looking to be the hottest day for most areas due to the
anticipated drier conditions. Humidities will vary little day to
day. Breezy south to southwest winds across the plains will prevail
through Saturday thanks to a lee side trough.
Good to very good ventilation will be the rule today and Friday.
Pockets of poor to fair ventilation is possible on Saturday across
the northeast with more widespread poor to fair ventilation possible
on Sunday through Wednesday across central and western areas. 34