Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 080536 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEAK AS THE UPPER HIGH STEERS STORMS WELL
NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE
VALUES AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO DRY NLY
THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...THE MODERATE TO STRONG RIBBON OF NW
WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL FINALLY DIMINISH. WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHED SWWD INTO FAR NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR COOLING AT BEST TAKING PLACE AT CLAYTON AND
TUCUMCARI BEHIND THE FROPA.

A TRANQUIL WORK WEEK IS IN STORE AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THIS UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY EWD TUESDAY AND
RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL WARMING ESPECIALLY EAST. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE
GONE BACK TO BEING PROGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO AN INCOMING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
CONVECTION HANGING TOUGH SOUTH OF HAWAII (~160W) WOULD SUGGEST A
CHANGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR...IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DAYS 7 TO 10.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AS A
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ONGOING WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAINES VALUES WILL BE ON THE UPTREND
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE 5S ARE FORECAST
BY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE WARMING...VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE
POOR. LEE SIDE TROUGHING IS LOOKING WEAKER WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLES AND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTACT...MEANING
LITTLE-TO-NO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FLIP FROM 00Z SOLUTIONS
WITH REGARD TO A UPPER LOW/TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
12Z RUNS BACK TO A DRY TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. RIDGING LOOKS TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE-TO-NO WETTING POTENTIAL.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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