Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 131813 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1113 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Dry backdoor cold front making progress swwd through eastern NM this
morning. This feature will reach the east slopes of the central mt
chain during the late afternoon, pushing west through Glorieta Pass
this evening and then through Tijeras and Abo passes around sunrise
Thursday. The associated upper level trough will drop sewd through
NM Thursday, bringing with it lowering MVFR cigs and a few snow
showers to the northern mts toward the end of this TAF period.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...245 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will weaken today, and a weak backdoor cold
front will move across the eastern plains this afternoon. Highs today
will continue to be above normal. A much stronger backdoor cold front
will push across NM Thursday, bringing temperatures below normal
everywhere, except far west portions of the state. An upper low will
move southward from CO and cross eastern NM Thursday with light snow
expected from the northern mountains to the northeast plains. Two to
four inches of snow could fall in the mountains. Temperatures will
moderate to near normal Friday, as high pressure builds back in
from the west. A more substantial warm-up will occur Saturday with
breezy west to southwest winds east of the Rio Grande Valley. Another
upper low from the central Rockies will cross the region Sunday. This
system will bring light snow to northern NM along with another push
of colder air. High pressure from the west will gradually build
across central and northern NM Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above normal Monday and much above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure will extend eastward across NM from the
large upper level high off the central CA coast today. This feature
will produce dry weather with temperatures remaining well above
normal. A weak backdoor cold front will cross the eastern plains this
afternoon with slight cooling most noticeable in the northeast
plains. The center of the high will recede to the west Wednesday
night and Thursday, as an upper level trough moves southward from the
central to southern Rockies. Ahead of this system a strong backdoor
cold front will move into the eastern plains early Thursday morning
and proceed southwestward through Thursday evening. The front will
bring much cooler weather to the entire area. Highs Thursday will be
well below normal for most of the area, except far western NM. As
the upper level trough moves southward, it will bring light snow to
the northern mountains and light snow, mixed at times with rain, to
the northeast plains. The trough will have limited moisture, however
2 to 4 inches of snow could fall in the northern mountains by
Thursday evening. A light northerly flow aloft combined with drier
air and light winds near the surface will allow temperatures to
recover to near normal Friday.

A developing surface low in the far northeast plains and adjacent
panhandles of northwest TX and western OK will generate breezy west
to southwest winds Saturday. Warming air aloft and downsloping winds
east of the central mountains will increase high temperatures 5 to
10 degrees above normal in the eastern plains. Elsewhere,
temperatures will moderate to slightly above normal. Model
differences emerge Sunday regarding the track of another upper low
from the central Rockies to the south across NM. The GFS is deeper
and farther west with the trough, while the ECMWF depicts a weaker
and more progressive feature. The ECMWF is preferred at this time
because of its run-to-run consistency. Though not as cold as the GFS
solution the ECMWF still shows a Pacific cold front and a backdoor
cold front bringing much cooler air to NM. Highs Sunday will likely
be 3 to 8 degrees colder than normal Sunday, though possibly colder
if the GFS solution is correct. Light snow will likely develop late
Saturday night through Sunday in the northern mountains and adjacent
highlands.

The GFS and ECMWF show drier air and slight warming Monday behind
the upper level trough with the GFS solution being the cooler
solution, as colder air lingers farther to the west. Good model
agreement Tuesday and Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure moving
eastward from the West Coast. Dry weather and well above normal
temperatures are expected both days.

28

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak backdoor cold front will move down the Eastern Plains today
and help to improve vent rates there, but ventilation will otherwise
be poor. Forecast models continue to trend toward more amplified
trough passages and stronger cold fronts both Thursday and late in
the weekend. Much colder air will move in behind the front Thursday,
with decent wetting precipitation potential over the Northern
Mountains. Vent rates will improve most areas Thursday with the
frontal passage.

Look for a warm-up Friday into Saturday ahead of the next upper
level trough and associated cold front. Vent rates will be poor most
areas on Friday in the wake of the departing trough, but will
improve some Saturday ahead of the next cold front. The wetting
potential of the late weekend system is on the uptrend with each
consecutive model run. Vent rates will trend down and be poor most
areas early next week behind the departing trough/low, but with a
drying/warming trend in play.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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