Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 032121
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
 FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
TODAY TO MORE SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN OVER
S NM BY SATURDAY AFTN. AS A RESULT STORM CELLS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE S AND W TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING
DEPICTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING S OUT OF CO. TRUSTED MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT TS FORMING CLUSTERS AND LINES ACROSS N NM THIS AFTN
THEN SPREADING S ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
INDICATION THAT NW AND E CENTRAL AREAS COULD ALSO GET HIT. CELLS
SHOULD MOVE SLOWER AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ERRATIC TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. IF THE HIGH SINKS FAR ENOUGH
S...STRATUS STORMS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE E AT 10-15 KT.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
FEWER DENSITY ALTITUDE PROBLEMS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  65  87 /  40  20  30  30
DULCE...........................  52  83  53  81 /  40  30  40  40
CUBA............................  55  78  55  78 /  60  30  60  50
GALLUP..........................  58  84  57  82 /  60  50  60  30
EL MORRO........................  56  81  55  81 /  70  60  60  40
GRANTS..........................  58  84  57  84 /  50  50  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  58  80  58  81 /  50  50  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  60  85  58  84 /  50  50  50  30
CHAMA...........................  49  75  51  74 /  50  40  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  79  61  80 /  60  40  60  50
PECOS...........................  56  78  57  79 /  60  40  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  75  53  75 /  40  40  40  60
RED RIVER.......................  47  65  48  66 /  60  50  50  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  49  68  52  69 /  60  50  50  60
TAOS............................  53  80  54  81 /  40  30  40  40
MORA............................  53  75  55  76 /  50  50  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  57  86  60  86 /  40  20  40  40
SANTA FE........................  59  79  61  80 /  50  30  50  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  83  61  85 /  50  20  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  85  66  87 /  50  30  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  87  67  89 /  50  20  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  89  66  91 /  50  20  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  91  67  93 /  50  20  50  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  89  66  90 /  50  20  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  66  90  67  91 /  50  20  50  40
SOCORRO.........................  65  91  66  90 /  40  40  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  81  60  83 /  60  40  60  40
TIJERAS.........................  59  84  61  86 /  60  40  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  83  56  85 /  60  20  40  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  79  58  81 /  60  30  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  80  60  82 /  60  40  50  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  86  63  87 /  40  30  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  56  76  59  78 /  40  40  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  57  79  59  81 /  40  20  20  30
RATON...........................  57  83  57  84 /  30  10  20  30
SPRINGER........................  58  84  58  85 /  30  10  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  78  56  79 /  50  40  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  62  87  64  90 /  40   5  20  20
ROY.............................  60  81  61  84 /  30  10  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  65  90  67  94 /  30   5  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  87  65  91 /  60   5  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  91  68  94 /  40   5  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  88  65  90 /  50   5  20  20
PORTALES........................  66  89  66  91 /  40   5  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  88  66  91 /  60   5  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  68  91  67  94 /  50   5  20  20
PICACHO.........................  63  85  62  88 /  40  10  30  30
ELK.............................  60  78  60  80 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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