Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240525 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1125 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A few storms may still form early Sat morning along the Texas
border, but otherwise, showers have largely diminished except for
a few across the central high plains. Could see some LIFR
cigs/vsbys in the Moreno Valley overnight, including KAXX.
Otherwise, should be quiet through Saturday thanks to drier air
moving into NM. One exception will be favored northwest flow areas
such as KFMN and KCQC where breezy conditions will exist Sat aftn.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1003 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016...
.UPDATE...
Not many showers left and will trim POPS considerably. Will still
need to watch for development of showers and storms near the TX
border for the next hour or so. Winds have diminished at most
locations and have adjusted the speeds down. Zones out in a jiffy.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific cold front is currently sweeping eastward across New
Mexico, bringing cooler temperatures and some showers to the area.
Also of note, a deep low pressure system, currently over the
state of Utah, will eject northeastward tonight before a secondary
disturbance aloft dives southward into New Mexico during the day
Saturday. This scenario will bring temperatures below to near
normal on Saturday with a second front sliding into the state on
Sunday, reinforcing the cooler air. Precipitation will be minimal
on Saturday, but will begin expanding across southeastern NM on
Sunday while gusty winds surge into the state with the cold front.
Areas along and south of interstate 40 will be favored for
precipitation on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deep 562 decameter low over UT is progged to lift northward
overnight. This will continue to usher the Pacific front farther
east, overtaking the remainder of NM early this evening.
Precipitation has been showery wit low-topped structure and an
absence of deep convection or lightning. The currently oriented
north-south band of showers should continue to break apart and
dissipate as it gets toward the central mountain chain this
evening. There are some prospects for showers and storms in the
far eastern plains of NM late this evening, but potential is slim
as the axis of better moisture and instability will be migrating
eastward, just ahead of the front. Should anything develop,
sufficient speed shear could allow any cells to briefly turn
strong before moving into west TX.

The cooler, drier, and more stable airmass in the wake of the
Pacific front will keep things quiet on Saturday with minimal
precipitation chances. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees below
normal in the central to western zones Saturday and close to
average in the east. Moderate breezes, mostly from the west
northwest, will be the rule over most of the forecast area
Saturday. While Saturday`s weather looks rather benign, a more
interesting pattern will be staging in the atmosphere. As a
trailing vorticity lobe dives on the back side of the departing
upper low, it will rapidly fill in and become cut-off over NM
Saturday night.

By Sunday the cut-off low would be situated just SW of NM,
dragging in a plains segment, or back door, cold front into the
state. Moisture would have been depleted prior to the arrival of
this front Sunday morning, therefore, little in the way of showers
or storms are expected to develop until the surface boundary
reaches the southeastern quadrant of NM. This would break out
fairly widespread and healthy precipitation with hefty QPF
amounts, mostly displaced SE of the ABQ forecast area where better
moisture/surface convergence would be found. The concern for many
zones will be winds, as gusty conditions ensue, especially
downwind of gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain.

The forecast models are now even more bullish about carrying the
cut-off upper low farther west, somewhere over Sonora, Mexico
Monday and potentially toward the upper Gulf of California toward
Tuesday. Precipitation would seemingly favor areas south of I-40
where boundary layer moisture and upslope forcing would be
coincident. The low would likely weaken into an open wave and loop
back northward into AZ and eventually north of the Four Corners
Wednesday. This could lead the way for some subtropical moisture
from the south by late next week, but confidence is still not all
that high.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy to windy southwest winds will continue through this
evening ahead of the Pacific cold front as it pushes eastward,
with 50 mph gusts impacting portions of central, east central and
northeastern areas. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers will
continue favoring western and central areas this afternoon,
especially across the north central mountains. Storms will then
filter to eastern areas before diminishing late tonight. Cooler
and drier conditions will follow behind the front with
temperatures falling 10 to 20 degrees by this evening central and
west. Overnight lows will also fall 15 to 25 degrees areawide with
freezing temperatures across the extreme northern and western
mountains. A freeze warning will be in effect tonight across the
San Juan Basin. Good to excellent humidity recoveries across the
extreme northern and southwestern mountain peaks, with good to
fair readings elsewhere.

Saturday will start off with near freezing temps across the
northwest plateau before the afternoon sun warms things up. Look for
chances of isolated afternoon showers across extreme north central
and southeastern areas. Otherwise, look for mostly sunny skies with
cooler daytime highs and drier Min RH values than previous.
Ventilation will downtrend across the southwest with good to fair
elsewhere.

An upper level trough will dive southward towards Old Mexico Sunday
before becoming a cut off low Sunday evening across southern New
Mexico and Arizona. The set up of this cut off low will help draw
surface to mid level moisture northward, developing shower chances
along and south of the I-40 corridor. Breezy to windy conditions will
also pick up central and south, with gap wind possibilities along
the central mountains Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be cooler and unsettled as the
cutoff low hovers over the Southwest U.S. before gradually
shifting west/northwest midweek. The Euro and GFS looks to be in
agreement with the cut off low ushering in ample moisture
northward.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ501.

&&

$$


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