Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 272349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN NM
ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. THE FOCUS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CONT DVD WEST TO THE AREA AROUND KFMN AND KGUP. ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE EVENING. FARTHER EAST...SLOW MOVING
STRONG STORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS WELL WILL DRIFT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE CURRENT COMPLEX OF STORMS NEAR
SANTA ROSA WILL SHIFT TOWARD KLVS AND LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA. KTCC
IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE SITE AS A WELL-DEFINED CUMULUS FIELD IS
POISED TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT BULLISH
ON DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERAL DOWN TREND FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS EVENING AN UPPER WAVE SHIFTING NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NM MAY FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LEFT VCSH IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
UNTIL ABOUT 09Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECKS WILL THEN DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED IN
A LARGE AREA OF THE STATE AFTER 20Z MONDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...317 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THE RULE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY...LIMITING STORMS
THERE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS ACTIVE. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF BACKDOOR FRONTS
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF DEEP
MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARM NIGHT/MORNING SET THE STATE FOR AN EARLY AND ACTIVE SHOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACCORDING THE 12Z LOCAL WRF...MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTROID OF UPPER HIGH OVER TUCUMCARI AT 21Z. EAST TO SELY SFC
FLOW MAINLY BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING LEVEL FLOW WILL SENDS MOST STORMS
SLOWLY TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEBRIS CLOUDS SO FAR
KEEPING THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE QUITE BUT SUSPECT WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS POOLED OVER THIS AREA THAT ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND
THIS AREA WARMS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND OUTFLOWS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST/NW...DEEP CONVECTION WILL RESULT. NO CHANGES PLANNED
TO THE WATCH AT THIS POINT.

NAM AND LOCAL WRF MODEL PICKING UP ON WARM CORE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE BOOTHEEL. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
CATRON COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT. ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY IN
STORE FOR MONDAY AS THIS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO ALL OF WRN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN INTO CENTRAL NM MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY WILL BE A MUCH MORE
CLASSIC TYPE MONSOON DAY WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING STORMS NORTH
AND NEWD...GIVING AREAS THAT HAVE NOT DONE ALL THAT WELL SO FAR
THIS MONSOON SEASON.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH CENTER GETS FORCED SOUTH AS WARM-CORE SHORT-
WAVES/VORT LOBES ROUND OVER THE TOP. WLY FLOW ALOFT THAT DEVELOPS
OVER NM WILL BEGIN TO SEND THE DEEPER MOISTURE EWD ON TUESDAY.
MODELS ALL INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL GET A RELATIVELY EARLY
START AND MOVE SEWD AROUND 10KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM WEDNESDAY. LONGER
LIVED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED THERE AS UPDRAFTS
ENTRAIN A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT. NLY FLOW ON EAST OF
THE HIGH CIRCULATION...HOWEVER...BRINGS ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO NE NM WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SEND DEEP MOISTURE
BACK WWD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS WEST OF NM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS BACKDOOR FRONTS CONTINUE TO REINFORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH
PWATS. EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS A RESULT...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EAST.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. TODAY REMAINS
THE SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION DAY TO HIGHER HUMIDITY AND LARGER WETTING
RAIN FOOTPRINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. AS STATED PAST FEW DAYS
...UPCOMING PERIOD HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING THE MOST ACTIVE SINCE
THE MONSOON BEGAN.

AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...DRIER AIR FOUND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AREAS...OTHERWISE RISING HUMIDITY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE. VIGOROUS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE EAST TO THE
WEST TONIGHT. RH RECOVERIES WILL GO UP PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE. EXPECT
SOME PRETTY STRONG GAP WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS EVENING.

THE AREA OF DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL SHRINK EVEN FURTHER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
HIGHER.

IT APPEARS THAT CONCENTRATED AREA FOR WETTING RAIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CELLS ELONGATES
OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM INTO TEXAS. NORTHEAST PLAINS AND SANGRES SHOULD
DO REALLY WELL FOR RAINFALL.

BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING A DRYING TREND OVER WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTING FURTHER WEST AND
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ENTRAIN INTO THE STATE FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
EITHER WAY...WETTING STORMS...PERHAPS HEAVY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERN AREAS.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY ACTIVE WITH WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WEST
AND NORTH. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH POSITION TO THE WEST...FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY ACTIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOULD
FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WITH WETTING RAIN AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS/HIGHER RH.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LOWER DUE TO FRONTAL INTRUSIONS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY/S VALUES COME UP SOME DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ515-527>534.

&&

$$






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