Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 191745 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON UNDERWAY AS TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE
CITY ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SLUICING
MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF NM WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH SIGNIFICANT STORM REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD 05Z THIS
EVENING AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS DIRECTLY OVER THE HEART OF NM.
INITIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SLIDE TO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AN THEN WIND UP OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
BY 12Z SUN MORNING. TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE TX STATE LINE
HEADING EAST WITH THE LAST OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TAPERING
DOWN BY 18Z SUN NOON. FOR TAFS...VCTS SIGNALING WINDOW OF GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VCSH SIGNALING CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TERMINALS AT REDUCED INTENSITY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1133 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
RAISED AND FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR REMAINDER
OF DAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 0.05 TO 0.15 WITH HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY SO VERY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH THAT SEE
REPEATED ACTIVITY. FARTHER NORTH WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING
SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OR SO TODAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FOR A ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO
PUSH THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION NEAR YUMA AZ EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SECONDARY JET STREAK IS
NOW ENTERING THE BOOT HEEL...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD. 06Z NAM CAPTURING
THIS FEATURE NICELY...BRINGING IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOCORRO
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THIS SWATH AS A RESULT. NAM
THEN TAKES THE MID-LEVEL MESO CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE NM AND SE CO. MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE OVER THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEFORMATION/WINDS SHIFT AXIS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW/CIRCULATION. WONT TRY TO SPLIT
HAIRS AND ATTEMPT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE LINE/SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SETS UP SO INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE SANGRES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS.

MAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FOCUS SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
PLAINS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO WRN NM. BACKDOOR FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ERN NM MONDAY...KEEPING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BOTH NAM AND GFS ALSO BRING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WORKS UP IN THE SELY RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY GENERATING MAINLY VIRGA...TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. JET STREAK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN HELPING OUT WITH SOME LARGE-SCALE LIFT. MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT TUESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. WIND MACHINE
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...

RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE APPROACHING AND OPENING INTO A WAVE. WHILE THIS
TROUGH IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE IN REGARD TO ITS STRENGTH AND
DYNAMICS...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WOULD SEEM TO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT
A MIX OF SOME DRIER STORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR
TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION BETTER THAN 0.10 INCH WILL BE IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HEALTHIEST. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO A LEE SIDE SURFACE
LOW...BUT AGAIN DEW POINTS AND MINIMUM RH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED
IN A SOMEWHAT UNORTHODOX FASHION.

TONIGHT THE OPEN TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE NM WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSING
CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION HANGING BACK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST
SURFACE/20FT WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. DEW POINTS WILL
LOWER TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT
STILL SURPRISINGLY ELEVATED IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

A BIT MORE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY WITH
MINIMUM RH DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. ANY SHOWERS IN THE WEST
WOULD LIKELY BY OF THE DRY/VIRGA VARIETY. IN THE EAST A BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED IN...PROVIDING SOME UP SLOPE AGAINST THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE LETTING DEW POINTS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH FOR SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A RIDGE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY...AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...LEAVING NM IN STRONGER BELT OF WINDS. SOME
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT WEDNESDAY
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY AND MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN ZONES. THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME LINGERING WIND IMPACTS...BUT
COOLER TEMPERATURES MIGHT OFFSET THE CRITICAL THREAT. WIND GUIDANCE
FOR THIS TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME HAS REDUCED SPEEDS. CURRENT
FORECAST DOES HAVE SOME LOWER SPEEDS THAN PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL
ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

GUYER








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