Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 270552 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF NM ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY E OF THE
CONTDVD ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH
WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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