Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271703 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1103 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TRUSTED MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN THE LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES...UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN PLACES LIKE CLOVIS...PORTALES AND ROSWELL.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...523 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY...WHICH MAY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAEG...KABQ...KSAF
AND KLVS. AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZES FORECAST...WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-30KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE STATE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. ROUNDS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER FAR WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
TRIGGER NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FIRING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS A PSEUDO COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN
THE MUCH WARMER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS AND COOL 50S AND
60S TO THE WEST AT LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS.

NAM12 CONTINUES IDEA OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE JEMEZ AND ESPECIALLY THE
TUSAS MOUNTAINS TODAY. MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR
TODAY IS THE FACT THAT SUNDAY`S CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE NOT
ONLY INCREASED MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT ALSO
PERTURBED THE SLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE VERY
DRY ALOFT OVER AZ OUT OF ALL BUT FAR WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM TODAY.
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN MTNS EWD TO THE RGV AS A
RESULT. FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AS
DRIER MID AND LOW LEVEL AIR FINALLY MOVE INTO A LAGER AREA OF
WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM. BOTH MODELS...HOWEVER...KEEP THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE ACT AS THE VERY DRY AIR AT 700MB
REMAINS OVER THE NW QUARTER.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NAM12 SPEEDING UP THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND NOW BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH THE NE AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO PERHAPS STRONG EAST
WINDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET INTO THE RGV WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL VERY BULLISH WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE EVENT EARLIER THIS MONTH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT VALUES THIS
TIME AROUND. NAM12 FORECAST PWAT VALUES FOR ABQ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.3 IN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR
CONCERN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNEDSAY NIGHT AS STEERING WINDS
ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR ZERO.

THE WIDESPREAD POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED HEALTHY
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND TODAY...
BUT WILL BE MORE NOTICABLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTER A BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE DOWNTREND TODAY IS DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AND DECREASING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH BACKING-OFF A BIT. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL TREND UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WED/THU AS PWATS RAMP-UP WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONT FORCES STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH DRIFT INTO NEARBY VALLEYS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS WELL.

A WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER HIGH RECENTERS AND EXPANDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...BUT
WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHOULD DECREASE A BIT EACH DAY FRI-SUN.

11

&&

$$


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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