Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 292150
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA AND ANOTHER STALLS ALONG NEW
MEXICOS WESTERN BORDER BEFORE WEAKENING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL THEN...BUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALSO
SHOULD ACCUMULATE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A VERY STRONG EAST WIND. THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FOR WHAT COULD BE AN OVER THE TOP WIND EVENT. THE
700 MB FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS PROJECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KT. WOULD PREFER A STRONGER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THAT FLOW...BUT MOS FROM VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS. THIS SUGGESTS
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN NM BORDER.

BESIDES THE SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO PICKUP SOME
ACCUMULATION ALSO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW MAY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH OR
UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND
THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN WILL DIMINISH...MOST OF WHICH WILL
DIMINISH BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. UNTIL THEN...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ELSEWHERE.

MUCH OF SATURDAY...NM WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...THE ONE THAT IS MOVING OUT TODAY...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE DIVING INTO CENTRAL AZ. DESPITE SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND
REMNANT MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NM. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
LIFT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NE NM.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
TO BE AN OVER-THE-TOP EVENT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL AZ AND 700 MB OVER CENTRAL NM SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-40 KTS. REGARDLESS...A VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING
EAST WIND EVENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE ABQ METRO AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
NOON ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DOCKET
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PERHAPS MOVING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE EACH AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
NM...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WED/THURS...AND THEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO GO UP ONCE AGAIN.

A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE NE NM ON
SATURDAY...BUT EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
VENTILATION WILL TREND DOWNWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND MORESO ON MONDAY. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE FOR
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND THE FAR NW...WHILE GOOD
VENTILATION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION WILL BEGIN TO
TREND BACK UPWARD ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

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&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NM UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN NM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ATTM.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NC/NE NM THRU THE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL POPCORN-LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM AS WELL. MVFR/IFR IMPACTS SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT WILL STILL GENERALLY FAVOR NC/NE NM.
MEANWHILE...DRY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW...THIS AFTN.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  36  62  39  59 /  20  30  50  70
DULCE...........................  30  56  30  51 /  30  40  60  80
CUBA............................  33  55  33  52 /  30  30  50  50
GALLUP..........................  34  58  32  55 /  40  30  50  70
EL MORRO........................  33  55  29  50 /  50  40  50  70
GRANTS..........................  35  60  30  53 /  30  30  40  70
QUEMADO.........................  34  59  35  57 /  40  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  38  70  37  67 /  10  10  20  30
CHAMA...........................  25  49  28  42 /  50  50  70  90
LOS ALAMOS......................  33  54  37  49 /  40  40  50  70
PECOS...........................  32  55  32  45 /  20  30  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  25  50  26  42 /  50  40  70  80
RED RIVER.......................  22  38  23  29 /  60  50  70  90
ANGEL FIRE......................  23  42  20  32 /  50  50  70  80
TAOS............................  28  52  27  45 /  40  30  50  70
MORA............................  28  47  30  35 /  30  40  60  80
ESPANOLA........................  34  60  37  55 /  20  30  40  60
SANTA FE........................  34  55  37  48 /  20  30  40  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  58  35  51 /  20  20  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  40  63  42  56 /  20  20  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  41  65  41  57 /  20  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  67  40  62 /  20  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  41  66  41  61 /  20  20  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  66  38  61 /  20  20  20  40
RIO RANCHO......................  41  65  41  60 /  20  20  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  43  69  42  67 /  20  20  20  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  37  56  36  49 /  20  10  40  60
TIJERAS.........................  38  60  37  53 /  20  20  30  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  59  30  49 /  10  10  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  37  57  30  44 /  10  20  30  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  39  61  34  54 /  20  10  20  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  67  40  63 /  20   0  10  30
RUIDOSO.........................  39  61  37  53 /  20   5  10  40
CAPULIN.........................  27  43  26  43 /  50  40  50  70
RATON...........................  26  50  27  46 /  40  40  50  60
SPRINGER........................  27  54  28  48 /  30  30  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  31  54  28  45 /  20  30  50  70
CLAYTON.........................  33  54  32  50 /  20  20  30  50
ROY.............................  32  55  30  49 /  20  30  40  60
CONCHAS.........................  37  65  35  56 /  20  20  30  50
SANTA ROSA......................  39  67  35  54 /  10  10  30  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  38  67  32  56 /  10  20  20  50
CLOVIS..........................  40  67  37  54 /  10  10  10  50
PORTALES........................  41  69  39  54 /  10   5   5  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  42  68  38  55 /  10  10  10  50
ROSWELL.........................  48  79  42  63 /   5   0   5  40
PICACHO.........................  43  72  38  57 /  10   5  10  40
ELK.............................  41  68  39  55 /  10   5  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

&&

$$

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