Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 260003
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
603 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
Another active evening and potentially overnight period. Every
terminal site will be impacted whether it be VCSH/VCTS or direct
impacts such as short term vis restrictions and/or gusty outflow
wind to 35 kt. Models show activity continuing well into the
overnight. Will need to update terminal forecasts such as ROW/TCC
and perhaps central sites like AEG/ABQ/SAF if this were to occur.
Did bite on TCC receiving some lower cigs for a brief period late
tonight but using SCT025 as a placeholder for that possibility.
Another healthy crop of storms is expected Tues afternoon. Using
VCSH/VCTS as a placeholder right now for alluding to terminal
impact. That will be fine tuned as we get nearer to that period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016...
High pressure aloft is currently near the Four Corners region. In
the lower layers of the atmosphere some modest moisture is being
drawn into New Mexico from the Gulf of Mexico. This has led to an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity, a trend that should
continue into Tuesday. Temperatures will cool a few to several
degrees on Tuesday due to the increased cloud cover and moisture.
By mid to late week high pressure will stay northwest of New
Mexico, and dry air will begin to sag into the state, limiting
thunderstorm chances while allowing temperatures to rebound above
The centroid of high pressure aloft is currently over the Four
Corners region with modified moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
having advected northwestward into the Land of Enchantment.
Precipitable water values have risen a tenth of an inch or two
over the past 24 to 36 hour and should continue to gain a bit more
into Tuesday with healthy surface dewpoints. This should lead to a
healthy crop of storms tonight, Tuesday, and Tuesday night. The
steering flow will be variable across NM tonight due to the
proximity of the upper high, and motions will be slow, potentially
leading to some locally heavy rainfall.
Into Tuesday, the day will likely start with quite a bit of debris
clouds left over from tonight`s convection. This could stunt
destabilization in some areas, but nonetheless a healthy round of
storms is forecast for Tuesday afternoon as precipitable water
values will largely range from 1-1.15 inch over most of the
forecast area. The high will be drifting northwest of the Four
Corners region and consequently storms will tend to be steered
more from north to south, and the slow motions and high moisture
content could lead to some locally heavy rainfall.
By Wednesday, there is little projected movement with the upper
high, but drier air will wrap on the eastern periphery of it,
spilling into NM. This will start to limit the precipitation
chances in the north central to northwestern zones. Isolated to
scattered storms will favor the southwestern mountains leaning
toward the central mountain zones. Temperatures will respond
upward with the drying trend, and Farmington will encroach upon
triple digits Wednesday afternoon.
The upper level high will exhibit little motion Thursday through
Friday, essentially staying anchored over southern Nevada. This
will keep dry air seeping southward into NM with any remnant
moisture being wrung out day-by-day. Temperatures will inch up a
few to several degrees above normal.
Some weakening of the upper level dome of high pressure is then
depicted by the forecast models for this weekend while its
ill-defined centroid migrates eastward back over NM by Sunday.
Less subsidence would assist storm production, and better moisture
would be staging in Old Mexico. So, should the high continue to
shift farther east as the medium range guidance suggests, a better
plume of subtropical moisture would be pulled into central/western
NM next week.
Upper high center to meander over NM to the Great Basin this week,
then drift eastward of NM this weekend, allowing a more traditional
monsoon pattern to develop early next week. For the next couple of
days, showers and storms will develop over the higher terrain and
drift into the valleys and plains. Storm motion will be slow and
erratic, largely driven by terrain and outflow boundaries.
Once the upper high reaches the Great Basin, some drier air will
work into the northwest and west central, resulting in a high haines
forecast for the northwest third or so of the forecast area mid to
late this week. Minimum humidities overall will diminish as the
week progresses, but overnight recoveries will remain mostly good to
excellent, except for the northwest plateau where fair to poor
recoveries develop as soon as Wednesday night and persist through
Friday night. Vent rates will be fair to poor central and northeast
Tuesday through Wednesday. With the drier air will come fewer
showers and thunderstorms, with Thursday and Friday appearing to be
the least active overall. Still, the western and central higher
terrain may see isolated to scattered convection but wetting rain
may be harder to come by. Storm motion to trend from northeast to
southwest mid to late week.
Once the high center returns to our east early next week, wetting
rain potential from showers and storms increases, especially for the
west and central. Temperatures will remain near to above average
through early next week, although expect daily variations due to
convection and the location of the upper high to occur.