Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 182236
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MID NOVEMBER. A WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A THIRD...COLDER...PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MOUNTAIN AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EQUATE TO SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVERHEAD. BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE TX
LINE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH NRN NM THURSDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
BETTER MIXING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR AVERAGE
LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SUNDAY.

NEXT PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE-
DAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CENTER OF THE WAVE/LOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH SRN NM FRIDAY NIGHT. PWATS JUMP TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MID NOVEMBER FRIDAY AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE...INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMEWHAT MAINLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ROUGHLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS OVERHEAD SATURDAY....AHEAD OF
A THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRIMARILY OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUSPECT MODELS MAY BE UNDER-DOING QPF WITH THIS
FEATURE AS 115KT JET NOSES IN AND GFS` PWATS REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE (~0.40) OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT OF THE COMBINED JET LIFT
AND MODEL PROGGED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MAINLY NRN
MOUNTAINS.

LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO ARISE AFTER MONDAY.
GFS PUMPS UP A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING NM IN DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFFSHORE...ALLOWING SHORT-WAVES TO CARVE OUT A
DEEP AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. CURRENT REALITY IN THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN LENDS MUCH MORE CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR 10N
BTWN 140W AND 100W. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT/DIFFERENCE NOW IN
PLACE IN THIS REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE ECMWF IS ON TO SOMETHING.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES. THERE IS
ALSO A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL POCKET OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL CAUSE HUMIDITIES TO DROP EVEN LOWER.
THE RECENT WARMING TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF
NORMAL...THOUGH REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE. FURTHER...WIDESPREAD
POOR VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE WEAKENING
RIDGE CROSSES.

AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY...A WEEK UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INDUCING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF HUMIDITY IMPROVEMENT OUT
WEST ON THURSDAY. LOOK FOR VENT RATES TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY TOO...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN POOR IN MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSSING. ALTERNATING MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ONE TROUGH COULD CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER SE AZ
LATE FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF
NEW MEXICO...THEN EASTWARD INTO TX. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-40 FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BROADEN AND DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS IN NW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FAVORING THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS NORTH OF I-40. WINDS MAY BE THE BIG IMPACT
WITH THESE SYSTEMS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST E
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY...SPREADING TO MANY LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY. THE AREA FROM CLINES CORNERS
TO SANTA ROSA COULD EXPERIENCE WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ON SUNDAY. THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO TREND DOWNWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS BOTTOMING OUT 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. DUE
TO THE STRONGER WINDS...VENT RATES SHOULD REMAIN FAIR TO EXCELLENT
THOUGH. AFTER A SPIKE IN HUMIDITIES SATURDAY...HUMIDITIES SHOULD
TREND DOWNWARD AS THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

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&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CROSS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  16  48  20  50 /   0   5   5   0
DULCE...........................   7  44  15  45 /   0   0   5   0
CUBA............................  11  44  19  46 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  11  52  18  51 /   0   0   5   0
EL MORRO........................  12  51  16  50 /   0   0   5   5
GRANTS..........................   9  54  16  52 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  19  52  25  52 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  24  61  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   6  40  15  41 /   0   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  18  44  24  48 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  17  45  22  48 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................   8  41  16  44 /   0   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  35  21  39 /   0   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  -3  39   5  42 /   0   0   5   5
TAOS............................   8  41  14  46 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  13  45  20  47 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  18  47  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  22  45  26  48 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  17  47  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  25  49  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  26  51  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  22  52  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  52  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  19  52  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  23  52  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  24  56  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  18  46  23  49 /   0   0   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  17  48  20  50 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............   7  46  12  49 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  17  42  22  49 /   0   0   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  21  47  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  24  52  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  28  52  32  53 /   0   0   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  14  41  19  47 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  10  45  16  51 /   0   0   5   0
SPRINGER........................  12  46  19  53 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  17  46  21  52 /   0   0   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  24  44  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  17  41  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  22  46  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  25  49  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  21  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  22  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  23  51  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  21  49  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  21  54  24  66 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  24  58  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  28  57  31  60 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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