Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 260606 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1206 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is exiting the
southeastern corner of the forecast area here at the midnight hour,
and once these leave, only a few stray light showers are expected
through the remainder of the overnight. Aviation concerns through
Monday late morning will be focused on the development and expansion
of low clouds and fog in the moist environment left behind by the
previous bouts of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered MVFR
conditions with isolated areas of IFR/LIFR conditions are
anticipated, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain and
possibly toward the Jemez mountains. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will redevelop Monday afternoon in many areas along
and east of the Continental Divide, perhaps with storms being more
numerous over the higher terrain. Heavy downpours, gusty downburst
winds, and significant hail will accompany the stronger storms.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1033 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017...
.UPDATE...
Removed the severe thunderstorm watch wording from the zfp.

33

&&

SYNOPSIS...Active weather though Monday or Monday night with
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy
rainfall mainly central and eastern New Mexico. A drying trend
expected Tuesday through Thursday with afternoon westerly breezes.
Another cool front Friday will bring a return of moisture and
consequently showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend.
Temperatures will meander to within a few degrees of average overall
by Tuesday, and will remain there for the rest of the week.

&&

DISCUSSION...A repeat performance, or at least some similarities to
yesterday for the short term forecast, as thunderstorms have
developed over the southwest/west central mountains this afternoon
and are tracking east and southeast toward the Rio Grande Valley.
Current activity has also spread north of Interstate 40 over wrn NM
and scattered cells over the south central mts, where some small
hail as already been reported. Models suggest the west and RGV will
see activity into the evening though the RAP is not as ominous
looking as storms progress into the RGV and central mt chain as the
NAM12 and HRRR.  All 3 models indicate there will be another storm
complex that fires up over the eastern plains this evening, but all
focus on slightly different areas and timing, the HRRR being the
fastest, and ending or moving the bulk of the precipitation south of
our CWA by or shortly after midnight.  The RAP and the NAM12 are
much slower, developing and moving the areas of heaviest
precipitation south late in the evening through the overnight hours.
Did up pops over portions of the far eastern plains including
portions of Quay, Curry and Roosevelt counties after midnight as a
compromise and where some of the larger rainfall amounts painted
although NAM12 blesses Harding county with an impressive amount.

Expect extensive cloudiness to fill in over the eastern plains to
the east slopes of the central mt chain overnight, which may take
some time to erode on Monday. The upper air pattern start to change
Monday, with steering flow shifting a bit more out of the north as
the upper ridge axis pivots due to the incoming and drier trough to
our northwest. While showers and storms look likely to develop over
the higher terrain Monday, the models aren`t indicating another
round of heavy precipitation for the east Monday evening/night. The
NAM 12 has singled out the south central for Monday evening activity
then tapers off precipitation after midnight.

Tuesday is still abruptly drier, and this trend is plausible with
the ocean of dry air apparent on satellite imagery to our west. The
mid week period will be dry with near normal temperatures, although
westerly afternoon breezes are possible. A few century mark highs
may return to the east central/southeast plains.

Another cool front Friday will push moisture back into
eastern/central NM, leading to increasing potential for convection
Friday through next weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017...
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the
continental divide will be capable of producing large hail and wet
microbursts with erratic wind gusts over 60 mph this evening and
tonight. The focus should shift to the area along and east of the
central mountain chain as the evening progresses. Torrential
downpours on burn scars will pose a risk of localized flash
flooding. Drier air and less convection is expected along and north
of a line from Gallup to Cuba.

Humidities will begin to trend downward Monday, and especially
Tuesday and Wednesday, as the low level flow gradually veers out of
the south and eventually the west in response to an upper level
trough crossing the northern and central Rockies. Thunderstorm
coverage will trend downward as well, to a lesser extent Monday,
then moreso Tuesday when storms should favor the north central,
southwest and south central mountains. Dry weather is expected
Wednesday through Thursday. The trough passing north of NM will
strengthen the flow aloft and work with a stout surface trough in
the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Range to make surface winds breezy
across the east, north and west Tuesday and Wednesday. Humidities
will bottom out in the single digits across much of the west
Tuesday, and across most of the fire weather forecast area on
Wednesday and Thursday. Poor humidity recoveries are also expected.
Some locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast west of
the continental divide on Tuesday, and east of the central mountains
Wednesday. Haines indices will reflect the drier conditions with
increasing values of 6 across the west Monday, widespread 6`s across
central and western areas Tuesday, then areawide Wednesday and
Thursday.

The dry conditions will persist until a moist back door cold front
brings some humidity improvement along and east of the central
mountain chain Friday.  There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in and east of the Sangre de Cristos Friday and
Saturday. However, very low humidities and Haines of 6 will persist
farther west as a slow moving upper level trough digs into the Great
Basin.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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