Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 180547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED -TS/-SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE NM/AZ LINE SW OF KGUP
WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE SW...WHILE A FEW TS/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OR REDEVELOP AND GENERALLY DRIFT TOWARD THE SE OVER
PORTIONS OF NC/NE NM BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT 3AM. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 09Z WITH QUIET WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE FOR THE PERIOD JUST BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED BETWEEN KGUP AND KFLG WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY PM WITH A TRANSITION TO SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE REGIME IN A CORRIDOR FROM SW THROUGH CENTRAL TO NC/NE
NM MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING. EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS AFT 18Z. SOME CELLS WILL GENERATE SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40KT...ALONG WITH BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS DUE TO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND INCREASE INTENSITY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHIFTS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT PARKED SQUARELY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS BRACKET NEW
MEXICO...ONE EXTENDING FROM SALT LAKE CITY TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
SOUTH TO THE WINSLOW AZ AREA...THE OTHER EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
KANSAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BIG BEND COUNTRY. CONVECTION
UNDERWAY ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EMPHASIZE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE EAST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES EMERGING
IN PATTERN DEPICTION FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WHICH WILL HAVE CHIEF
IMPACT FOR AREAS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. GOOD START WILL DEVELOP
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY ON MONDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST U.S. RIDGE CORE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SAN DIEGO AREA BY MIDWEEK AS RIDGE
CORE RETREATS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA COUNTRY.
TROUGH WILL ABANDON SOUTHERN TIP AND FORM CLOSED LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COASTLINE...AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CLOSED LOW WILL LINK UP WITH THE LEFTOVERS
BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FAST FLOW TO START DIGGING SOUTHWARD ON
UPSTREAM SIDE OF PARENT TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FAST FLOW WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ON SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL IMPART EASTWARD SHEARING MOMENT ON
TROUGH BASE AND KEEP IT NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. RIDGE CORE WILL THEN
NUDGE BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION NOW SHEARS COMPACT WESTERN
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO...WHILE
DOMESTIC GFS KEEPING THINGS SLOW AND DELIBERATE WITH MUCH REDUCED
EASTWARD TROUGH TRANSPORT. SOLUTIONS COMING BACK TOGETHER EARLY
TUESDAY...AS TROUGH PHASES WITH CANADIAN POLAR LOW AND AMPLIFIES
FROM HUDSONS BAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL EASE EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS BY
MIDWEEK...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE END OF
THE MODEL RUN. WITH EARLY WEEK TROUGH PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION THE
MAIN ISSUE...WILL KEEP DIFFERENCES SPLIT IN FORECAST THINKING FOR
NOW AND EXPECT SOME IMPROVED COHERENCE IN MODEL RUNS TO COME.

OVERNIGHT...A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE JEMEZ...SAN JUAN...AND SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SHAPE
UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CATRON COUNTY...WITH LOCAL DOWNPOURS
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN HIGH COUNTRY.

FOR MONDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MID
AUGUST NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING NORTHBOUND
MOISTURE TO PENETRATE WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON THE WESTERN MARGINS OF
THE RIDGE CORE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS BY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALLS AND GREATER COVERAGE OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND OVER THE UPPER
GILA REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS INTO THE DEEP HEART OF TEXAS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OPENING NORTHBOUND TRANSPORT OF DEEPER
MOISTURE OUT OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ONE INCH PWAT CONTOUR WILL LIE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WETTEST TO THE WEST...WITH VALUES MORE LIKE 0.75 INCH ON
THE EASTERN DRY SIDE OF THE CONTOUR. MOISTURE PLUG WILL EXPAND
OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL NEED A GOOD LOOK FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EASTERN PLAINS...CLOSER
TO THE RIDGE CORE...WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GRADUAL UP TICK IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE HEADING FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LEAVE NEW MEXICO IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. STORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH CONTINUED INCREASES IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE PREVIOUSLY STORM FREE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONE INCH PWAT CONTOUR WILL LIE
FROM CLAYTON TO THE BOOT HEEL...WETTEST SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE
FIRST OF SOME COOLER AND DRYER AIR WORKS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. COOLER AND RAINIER CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES...PLACING MOST SPOTS 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW LATE AUGUST
NORMALS FOR THE COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM THE SAND HILL COUNTRY OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TO IMPART SOME SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC BREEZES OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO MORE LOCALIZED
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THURSDAY WILL REDUCE INTENSITY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
REDUCE COVERAGE BACK TO A WESTERN AND CENTRAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY
AS THE EAST DRIES OUT. VERY SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OF
NORMAL...A LITTLE COOLER WEST AND CENTRAL AND A LITTLE WARMER IN
THE EAST...ACROSS THE HEART OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK COLD FRONT
PENETRATING NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS
BRIEFLY...BUT NOT PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WINDS REGAIN THEIR SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENTS.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD FARTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NM WITH DEW POINTS
AT MID AFTN GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. DESPITE THIS A FEW
STORMS HAVE FIRED MOSTLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE AND FOR THE
MOST PART WEAKENING ONCE DRIFT S AND SW OVER LOWER TERRAIN. EAST
THIRD OF NM SEEING MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN SAT AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE EVE AND...PERHAPS EXCEPTING THE
NE...ALSO MON. MOST TODAY WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT. HAINES VALUES OF 5 TO 6 COMMON MON ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW
NM...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPS
TUE AND WED THROUGH THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY...HUMIDITIES WILL REACH THE 11 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE FAR NW AND NE...PERHAPS REPEATING FOR ONE MORE DAY MON
IN THE FAR NW. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE JUST FAIR TO POOR THERE
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

MODELS STILL CONTINUE THEIR RECENT TREND OF BRINGING A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM DURING THE TUE WED PERIOD. BUT THERE IS
VARIABILITY AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD AND GENEROUS THE RAINFALL WILL BE
WITH IT. ECMWF IS THE STINGIEST MODEL IN THIS REGARD...ESPEC ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. GFS STILL MORE GENEROUS...BRINGING NOW
3 SEPARATE BATCHES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...THE FIRST TUE...
SECOND WED...AND THE THIRD LATER THU AND EARLY FRI. DRIER WESTERLIES
BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY LATER WED AND THU ON THE ECMWF...BUT NOT TIL
FRI OR FRI NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE LIKELY TUE...WED AND PERHAPS EVEN
THU NE AND EAST CENTRAL. BUT EXPECT SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MON. WIDESPREAD POOR
TO FAIR VENT RATES FORECAST FOR WED/THURS WEST HALF...BUT VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT EAST.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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