Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 041135 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
435 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS HAS CREPT INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE
SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING. THIS PATCH
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ONCE
WESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT
BREEZES IN MOST LOCATIONS. A COUPLE OF FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...PRODUCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE STATE AND LIKELY SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SOME
BRIEF MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY/CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY IN ANY PASSING SHOWERS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF DISTURBANCES WITH WHAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING EVEN MORE LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INHERITED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL GOOD...BUT DID TRIM BACK
ON FRIDAY/S IN AREAL COVERAGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH JUST NOTICED THE 06Z GFS FORECAST IS A BIT
WETTER WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM WILL BE FAVORED FOR SPOTTY SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY SLIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT/FRIDAY...AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...THAN TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

ANOTHER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
NORTHWEST BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD START TO DEFLECT THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS WAVES AND AFFECTS OF THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO OUR
EAST. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY CREEP OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LOW WILL SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE NEAR BAJA CA. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE BUT
IT/S FARTHER NORTH...OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NM.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE...LEADING TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES...IN FACT THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON FOR SEVERAL LOCALES. DESPITE THIS COLD START...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM 3 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW MINIMUM
RH IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MANY HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WERE DECREASED FOR
TODAYS FORECAST DUE TO LESS STRENGTH ALOFT...BUT STILL SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

DISCUSSION ON A WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...AND DETAILS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR
AS WE NEAR THE PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A QUICK
ONE-TWO PUNCH AS DISTURBANCES QUICKLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NM...THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHERN NM THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONE INTO
NORTHEAST NM BY MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ARRIVAL OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUT THE WARMING TREND ON HIATUS WHILE SOME SCANT
SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFT
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY...AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE STRONGER WINDS
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BOOST VENTILATION RATES...BUT REMAINING
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY.

A MORE RELAXED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF NM WILL ACTUALLY RISE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL STRONG BREEZES
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS...MOST OF NM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POOR VENTILATION BEING THE MAJORITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF
NM. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO EASTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SHIFTS IN WIND
DIRECTION...MINIMAL TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. INTO NEXT WEEK A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND
WARMER SPELL FOR NM.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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