Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 220532 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1132 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017
06Z TAF CYCLE
Backdoor cold front progressing westward into central New Mexico,
with a low stratus deck following behind it. MVFR cigs currently
prevail at KLVS and KTCC, with further deterioration forecast at KLVS
to IFR around 09z. MVFR cigs possible at KSAF after frontal passage,
but forecaster confidence too low to include in a prevailing group.
Otherwise, the front will result in an east canyon/gap wind at KABQ,
though the strongest winds will likely hold off until Saturday
evening with a secondary push that may produce wind gusts near
Airport Weather Warning criteria.
.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017...
Two different weather stories through next week. The short term
forecast will feature mostly dry weather. The weekend will start
cool but warm noticeably Sunday and Monday. The extended forecast
will bring increasing chances of precipitation and a cooling trend
for much of next week. The one similarity will be the wind, with
breezy to windy conditions every day from Sunday through next
Short wave trough is departing NM while a pacific cold front has
moved east across most of the state. A secondary, polar cold front
has made it into northeast NM this afternoon with temperatures only
in the 50s in Clayton while around 80 in Clovis and 90 in Roswell.
A few showers are trying to develop along the northern front but will
have limited success through tonight. Much cooler air will pour into
the state, especially in the east behind the polar front with gusty
north winds much of the night. This frontal boundary will reach the
east slopes of the central mountains later tonight and spill into the
Rio Grande Valley.
The weekend will start chilly but end up warm. It will be dry for the
most part aside from a stray shower in the northeast Saturday. While
the northwest warms up some Saturday the east will be much cooler,
by 20 degrees in Roswell! Lot`s of sunshine and less wind will help
diminish the impact of the cool air mass to some degree. Moderate
east canyon winds into the RGV will be felt Saturday night. Sunday
will be warmer, especially in the northeast, where highs will be
around 15 degrees higher than Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions
will develop in the east as a lee side trough develops.
The work week will start dry and warm with highs Monday above normal,
likely the warmest day of the week except in our far southeast zones.
A gradual cooling trend will begin in most areas Tuesday and then
continue every day through the rest of the week as a series of short
wave troughs carve out a deeper long wave trough by the end of the
week. Chances of precipitation will begin in the northwest high
terrain Tuesday and spread south and east thereafter. Snow in the
higher northern mountains may begin to accumulate Wednesday night,
with snow levels gradually lowering the rest of the week. Rain
showers and a few thunderstorms will occur elsewhere, although the
southeast looks to miss out on most or all of the precipitation. CHJ
...INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
Another back door cold front will invade the eastern plains
overnight as it pushes south and west toward the central mtn chain.
Increasing dewpoints and lower temperatures with E/NE breezes will
follow behind the front. Look for improving recoveries in the east
The front will stall along the central mtn chain Sat before pushing
westward Sat night into Sun. Higher dewpoints will spread west of
the central mtn chain with some easterly breezes within the middle
RGV that will increase Sat night into Sun morning. Highs will fall 5
to 15 degrees below normal in the east with near normal readings
west of the mtn chain. Min RH values will creep into the upper 20s
to lower 30s across the east while low RH`s remain central and west.
Haines indices, mixing heights and vent rates will plummet with the
Sat night into Sun, the back door cold front will push west of the
central mtn chain reaching the Contdvd early Sun morning. Higher
dewpoints will push farther west at the same time gusty gap/east
canyon winds develop within the middle RGV. The front will mix out
Sun aftn as upper level ridging flattens out over the state allowing
drier air to filter into western NM as sfc winds gradually turn
By Mon, upper level flow will become zonal aloft with strengthening
SW winds at the sfc and more drier air filtering in from the west.
Temperatures will warm above normal central and west as drier Min
RH`s take fold across western areas. Higher haines indices and
elevated mixing heights will return followed by excellent vent rates
area wide. Fire weather concerns will become widespread in wake of
the drier and windier pattern.
Critical fire weather concerns will favor central and southern zones
Tues and Wed as a stream of upper level disturbances pass over the
central Rockies ushering in cooler temperatures and increasing cloud
cover across the northern tier of the state. Our next chance of
unsettled weather will arrive the latter half of the week with
possible cooler and windier conditions to follow as a Pacific system
crosses the central Rockies. 32