Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191158 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
558 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Mid level cigs near 10kft over the southwest half of NM will spread
northeast into the Rio Grande Valley thru 17Z. Latest radar showing
SHRA developing west of KGUP and around KEPZ moving slowly northeast.
Guidance is still in good agreement the area around KEPZ will move
across the Sacramento Mts and increase into the KROW area thru 21Z,
while another area develops along the Cont Dvd aft 21Z. This second
area of SHRA/TSRA will move across the Rio Grande Valley with gusty
outflow winds at KAEG and KABQ btwn 00Z and 04Z. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys
are possible with a direct hit from heavier precip. Models now show
the cluster around KABQ moving northeast and dissipating over the
northern mts while a larger area of RA with embedded TS slides thru
southeast NM overnight. This area will have the greatest chance for
MVFR cigs/vsbys. Clearing from west to east overnight may allow some
patchy FG to develop over central/western NM aft 09Z, particularly
KGUP and perhaps KABQ.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of upper level disturbances will slide eastward into New
Mexico today, bringing increased moisture and a chance for showers
and thunderstorms to many central locations within the state.
Additional cloud cover and the ongoing precipitation will keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler in most of New Mexico, the
exception being in the northern tier of the state near the Colorado
border where readings will stay a few degrees above normal.
Precipitation will exit New Mexico tonight with breezy to windy
conditions following on Friday. A cold front will then slide into the
state Saturday into Saturday night, setting temperatures back several
degrees while breezy to windy conditions persist. Weather conditions
will then turn more settled and tranquil into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Two short wave troughs are going to be the focal points for today and
tonight, one currently over south central parts of NM while another
is rounding the southern tip of NV. These features will essentially
move eastward in tandem with the southernmost wave exhibiting a bit
more negative tilt to it. Both features are drawing in plumes of
modified subtropical moisture that will introduce higher PWATs to NM,
about 2 standard deviations from means for mid October. In addition,
sufficient destabilization of the lower to mid troposphere will net a
crop of scattered to numerous showers and storms. Deep bulk shear in
the lower half of the troposphere is not projected to be overly high
in our forecast area, therefore cells are not expected be too strong
or severe, but farther south a case could be made for a few rowdy
cells. Most model guidance indicates a tendency for two distinct
areas of precipitation driven by each separate short wave with timing
of peak heating and destabilization also factoring in. Still, the
spatiotemporal window for precipitation is a fairly narrow and
transient one. The northernmost wave should be exiting NM before dawn
Friday, with precipitation quickly waning.

Friday`s forecast concerns will quickly shift from precipitation to
winds with a stiff west southwest flow prevailing in the wake of the
departing short wave troughs. A lee side surface cyclone will also
quickly take shape Friday, providing a decent surface pressure
gradient to compliment the stronger gradient and winds aloft. Most
areas are expected to stay below wind advisory thresholds Friday, the
exception being the high peaks of the Sangres. Temperatures will
observe some small gains Friday afternoon, but will likely not be
perceived by most.

A longer wave trough will then move off of the Pacific and cross the
Rockies on Saturday. This will keep a belt of stronger winds aloft
rounding the base of the trough and in NM while a thermal trough
slides over the area. Conditions could begin to feel brisk in many
central to western NM zones Saturday as the winds take on a stiff
northwesterly component with cold air advection ensuing. The surface
cold front will not arrive into the eastern NM plains until late
Saturday afternoon and evening, but all zones will be in for a chilly
night Saturday night into Sunday morning. Regarding the need for
freeze watches/warnings: freezing temperatures will certainly be
reached in many central to north central zones, but at this time most
zones that are expecting a freeze Saturday night have already dipped
below the freezing mark this season. The fly in the ointment will be
the Albuquerque metro zone, as some localized areas immediately
along the Rio Grande could briefly touch freezing while the bulk of
the urban areas will stay a few to several degrees warmer in what
looks to be a decent northerly drainage breeze.

The rest of the forecast period, Sunday through Wednesday, look to
remain dry as high pressure side-steps to the west before a high
amplitude pattern shapes up. Temperatures will warm a few degrees in
western zones Sunday, and then several degrees area-wide on Monday.
By Tuesday a back door front will barrel into the state, cooling
temperatures, mostly in the eastern plains zones. This cool down will
be a brief hiatus with a warming trend resuming in most zones
Wednesday. Into the long range, the highly amplified pattern does
dampen with no blatant large scale precipitation-makers taking aim on
NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level jet shifting east into northern Mexico is carving out
a negatively tilted upper trough axis over the southwest U.S. Deep
layer moisture is advecting northward over NM ahead of low pressure
approaching from Arizona. Models continue to develop showers and
storms over the lower Rio Grande Valley this morning then a second
area of storms along the Cont Dvd by mid to late day. These two
clusters will merge eastward through central NM into a larger area
of rain with embedded thunder over eastern NM tonight. The greater
precip amounts have trended slightly farther south on the latest
guidance however widespread wetting rainfall is still expected south
of the I-40 corridor. Max temps with the thicker cloud cover will
trend 5-10F cooler than Wednesday. Ventilation will range from good
across northern NM to poor across the south.

Precip will exit the region tonight, leaving behind excellent RH
recoveries and even some patchy fog. Much drier zonal flow will
slide over the area behind the departing storm system. Min RH will
trend significantly lower with widespread breezy west winds. A few
areas across northeastern NM may be locally windy for a few hours by
mid day but min RH will remain above critical values. Ventilation
rates will be excellent with stronger winds moving across the area.
Ridge top winds will stay elevated Friday night ahead of a larger
upper level trough approaching from the Great Basin.

Saturday will feature cold air advection on breezy northwest flow.
Ventilation will remain very good to excellent all areas. A few rain
and high terrain snow showers are possible near the Colorado border
but latest guidance continues to trend drier. High pressure building
in quickly behind this wave Saturday night will set the stage for
much colder min temps areawide. RH recoveries will be very good to
excellent under strong midslope inversions.

Sunday and Monday will be spectacular weather days with strong high
pressure building into NM. Temps will trend closer to normal Sunday
then above normal by Monday. Min RH will fall back into the 10-20%
range with good recoveries expected. Ventilation will deteriorate
back to poor beneath the upper level high.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Mid level clouds near 10kft will develop northeastward across NM
thru sunrise as significant moisture advection approaches from AZ.
An area of SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop in the lower Rio Grande
Valley around 15Z then spread over the Sacramento Mts and into the
KROW area thru 20Z. Guidance is in very good agreement a second area
of SHRA/TSRA will develop along the Cont Dvd by 22Z then spread east
across the Rio Grande Valley into KABQ/KAEG btwn 01Z and 04Z. The
main impact initially will be strong, erratic outflow wind gusts,
followed by potential borderline VFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys with direct
hits from TSRA. These two precip areas are expected to merge into a
larger mass of RA with embedded TS over eastern NM thru tonight.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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