Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 021701 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...531 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR IMPACTS. IFR
IMPACTS IN STORMS LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$

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