Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 051809 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1109 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Low clouds/fog have eroded away in the Pecos River valley with VFR
conditions now prevailing throughout New Mexico. The jet stream
is bowing southward, leading to stronger winds aloft within the
state. These strong winds will buffet ridge tops of the northern
mountains of New Mexico, possibly leading to some mountain wave
activity. Strong surface gusts between 30-35 kt will be possible
for a few hrs at RTN/LVS/TCC/CQC. No areas of low clouds are
anticipated tonight, but a cold front will shift direction.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Not many chances for precipitation over the next week. Outside of
some light snow possible across the northern mountains on Tuesday,
the next best chance for precipitation looks to be next Sunday.
Main story for the work week will be well-below normal
temperatures after today. High temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal. By the weekend,
temperatures may rise back above normal in some areas. There will
be bouts of strong winds this week as well. Strong and gusty winds
are expected today across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
Central Highlands, and another round of breezy to windy conditions
look to return on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Main story today will be strong winds over the Sangre de Cristo
Mtns and central highlands as 700 mb winds increase to 30-45kts and
a surface lee side trough strengthens. Will issue a wind advisory
for these zones starting mid morning. Otherwise, temperatures will
rebound considerably across the eastern plains thanks to the strong
downslope flow. High temperatures will be at or above normal across
the CWA.

A shortwave trough sliding over Colorado today will send a back door
cold front into the plains tonight into Tuesday. This will drop
Tuesdays high temperatures at least 20 degrees from todays readings
across the east. As winds veer around to the southeast in the
afternoon, some weak upslope flow and convergence across the
northern mountains may result in light snow showers. Only minimal
snow accums are expected.

Another wave will cross Colorado on Wednesday and strong west-
northwest breezes will be in the picture across much of central and
western NM. However, another, stronger, back door cold front will
slide down the plains in the afternoon and evening. This front may
push through the central mtn chain Wed eve.  High temperatures on
Thursday will struggle to rise above freezing across the plains.
Across northeast NM, this will be the second straight day that
temperatures do not rise above freezing. Persons across far
northeast NM will need to take precautions for exposed pipes, etc.

West-northwest flow will dominate thereafter through the weekend
with temperatures generally increasing through at least Saturday.
GFS shows another fast moving wave sliding across the state on
Sunday, where the ECMWF is less enthusiastic about it. Stay tuned.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong jet stream currently found over the Great Basin will move
over the southern Rockies during the next few days. This means
increased surface winds and ventilation rates. The jet will relax
some late week and return during the weekend and perhaps remain into
early the following week. For the most part...it looks like the
forecast area would be on the drier side of the jet but that remains
to be seen.

Surface winds will increase substantially today across the high
terrain and adjacent lower elevation areas. The central mountains
and portions of the eastern plains will be favored. Humidity values
will lower quite a bit across the eastern plains due to atmospheric
mixing...some surface warming and left over portions of a mid level
dry intrusion. With that being said...a few hours of localized
strong wind and low RH should align across the east central plains.
Afternoon temps will several degrees above normal across the plains
due to downslope impacts but Haines values will be on the lower
side. Recent moisture over portions of the plains will have also
mitigated the fire danger threat so decided not to issue a warning.
Spatial/temporal coverage also limited. Ventilation will also
improve although mixing heights aren`t unusually high.

The jet will remain active over the area on Tuesday although a back
door cold front will have invaded the east tonight with residual
impacts on Tuesday. Either way...some of the stronger winds aloft
will mix down to the surface and especially impact the western half
and higher terrain areas. Once again...mixing heights are not
unusually high so wind speeds could have been stronger due to the
intensity or strength of the jet.

Residual portions of the jet will remain over the area on Wednesday
as the main Pacific trough pulls out over the Great Plains. A
surface cold front will drop in from the north and eventually east
and provide a pronounced cool down. High temps will range between 5
to nearly 20 degrees below normal across the northeast on Wednesday.
Precipitation during the later Tues to Wed period appears to be on
the minimal site with measurable mainly favoring the northern tier.
There is still some model disagreement of the precipitation
intensity. This has been this way for the past several days but
either way you slice it...not looking for significant amounts.

Residual cool weather would remain into Thursday with warming
expected on Friday. RH values look to be near normal for this time
of year. Ventilation would certainly take a hit and be quite low
most areas.

All of the models show the jet re-intensifying during the weekend
and most likely lasting into early the following week. At this
time...precipitation should mainly be relegated to the northern
tier. Will have to watch for some localized strong wind/low
humidity conditions across the plains.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ512>515-523.

&&

$$


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