370
FXUS65 KABQ 061154 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Dry and hot conditions will persist over the western half of New
  Mexico through the end of the week. Isolated showers and storms
  with gusty winds may develop along the Continental Divide and
  the Rio Grande Valley each day, but most areas will remain dry
  and hot with increasing risk for heat-related illnesses.

- Daily rounds of showers and storms will develop along the
  central mountain chain and nearby high plains of eastern New
  Mexico through the end of the week. Strong outflow winds, hail,
  frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will elevate the
  risk for flash flooding, especially on recent burn scars. The
  greatest storm coverage is most likely today and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Ruidoso area today.
Low level moisture surged westward overnight in the wake of a
strong convective outflow boundary. Meanwhile, a 594dm H5 high
center over southern NM is building northward and allowing mid
level moisture to stream northward as well. Low clouds along the
east slopes of the central mt chain this morning will erode
quickly thru 10am followed by destabilization with afternoon
heating. SBCAPE values from both the GFS and NAM exceed 1000 J/kg
with lifted indices below -4C and PWATs >1". Terrain-dominated
convective initiation will take place by 11am with slow storm
motions along the central mt chain. Rainfall rates >1.5"/hr are
likely based on hi-res ensemble solutions. Even the NBM mean 6-hr
QPF is >0.50" around Ruidoso (which will most likely fall from one
or two storms). Several other bullseyes >0.50" exist along the
central mt chain and the high plains of eastern NM so localized
flooding is possible outside of burn scars. The HPCC burn scar
may be far enough north of the deeper moisture to lower potential
for flash flooding today. However, model trends will continue to
be monitored for expansion of the Flash Flood Watch to that area.
A few high-based storms may develop along the Continental Divide
this afternoon then move south and east into the RGV by late
afternoon. Strong outflow winds and brief rain are expected with
these cells. The atmosphere will remain unstable over eastern NM
tonight as storms propagate into low level southeasterly inflow.
Outflow from storms over eastern NM will shift west into the RGV
again this evening with better potential for gap winds from near
Santa Fe to ABQ, Socorro, and Carrizozo.

A near-repeat is expected Monday but with faster storm motions
toward the southeast while a weak shortwave trough passes over the
ridge. Effective bulk shear values increase to between 25 and
40kt over eastern NM so a few strong to severe storms may occur.
PWATs are progged to increase even more so the threat for locally
heavy rainfall will continue. Meanwhile, western NM will remain
hot and dry today and Monday with readings near 5F above normal
for early July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Forecast trends for the remainder of the week suggest lesser storm
coverage and a shift to more heat-related impacts in many areas. 00Z
model guidance is coming into better agreement that the H5 high will
build to near 598dm around Gallup Tuesday and Wednesday. Storms are
still possible along the central mt chain and nearby highlands with
nearly stationary motions possible both days. Any cells that do form
will be capable of producing small footprints of heavy rainfall.
This will continue the threat for flash flooding around Ruidoso
given PWATs in that area will still be near 1". Elsewhere, highs
are progged to rise into the upper 90s and low 100s with moderate
to locally major heat risk expected, including the ABQ metro.

Forecast confidence remains low beyond Wednesday as extended models
continue to waffle around with the orientation of the upper ridge
axis over NM as a trough slides thru the northern Rockies. There may
still be an uptick in storm coverage with cooler temps for northeast
NM Friday, but most areas are looking to remain very hot and dry.
Heat Advisories may be needed as early as Tuesday and extend thru
Friday for the ABQ metro area and other parts of western NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Isolated showers and storms continue moving southward over parts
of eastern NM as of sunrise. This activity is likely to finally
dissipate to mid level cloud cover thru 8 am. MVFR low clouds
have developed along the east slopes of the central mt chain and
nearby highlands of eastern NM. This activity will also dissipate
after sunrise. Forecast models have done a poor job over the past
12 hours regarding the timing, coverage, and intensity of storms,
gap winds, and low clouds. There is also poor agreement with how
convection will evolve today, outside of initiation along the
central mt chain by noon. There is abundant moisture, instability,
and shear available for storms to become strong to severe over
eastern NM this afternoon. Direct hits will be capable of brief
MVFR vsbys with heavy rainfall. There are also hints that storms
will continue well into the evening around the ABQ/SAF metro areas
then possibly persist all night across eastern NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Very dry and hot conditions will persist over the western half of NM
thru the end of the week. Min humidity values will fall to between
15 and 20% each afternoon with fair overnight recoveries. Isolated
showers and storms are possible along the Continental Divide and the
Rio Grande Valley but most areas are not expected to see wetting
rainfall. Downburst wind gusts will be the main threats with this
activity. Areas along and east of the central mt chain will have
better chances for locally heavy rainfall today and Monday. A strong
area of high pressure may begin limiting storm chances even in these
areas Tuesday thru Thursday with very hot temperatures areawide. A
moist backdoor cold front may slide into eastern NM again on Friday
with increasing chances for storms thru next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  62  96  61 /   5   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  91  48  91  45 /  10  10  20   5
Cuba............................  89  58  90  56 /  30  20  20  10
Gallup..........................  91  53  93  51 /  10  10  10   5
El Morro........................  88  56  89  56 /  20  20  20  10
Grants..........................  91  55  93  54 /  30  20  20  10
Quemado.........................  90  59  90  59 /  40  30  50  30
Magdalena.......................  90  65  90  63 /  30  30  50  20
Datil...........................  88  59  88  58 /  30  30  50  30
Reserve.........................  95  55  95  56 /  40  20  60  30
Glenwood........................  99  60 100  61 /  30  10  60  30
Chama...........................  85  50  84  48 /  20  10  40   5
Los Alamos......................  86  61  86  60 /  40  20  40  10
Pecos...........................  86  58  86  56 /  60  30  60  20
Cerro/Questa....................  86  55  85  53 /  30  10  60  10
Red River.......................  77  46  76  45 /  30  10  70  10
Angel Fire......................  79  42  78  40 /  40  10  70  10
Taos............................  88  53  87  51 /  20  10  50  10
Mora............................  83  50  82  51 /  60  20  70  20
Espanola........................  93  61  93  59 /  30  20  30  10
Santa Fe........................  88  62  88  60 /  50  30  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  91  61  92  59 /  30  20  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  70  96  68 /  30  30  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  68  97  67 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  67  99  67 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  68  97  68 /  20  20  20  20
Belen...........................  98  66  98  65 /  10  30  20  20
Bernalillo......................  97  66  98  66 /  20  20  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  97  65  98  64 /  20  30  20  20
Corrales........................  98  67  98  67 /  20  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  97  66  98  66 /  10  30  10  20
Placitas........................  93  66  93  66 /  30  20  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  96  67  97  67 /  20  20  20  20
Socorro......................... 100  70  99  68 /  20  30  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  88  60  89  59 /  40  20  30  20
Tijeras.........................  90  62  91  61 /  40  20  30  20
Edgewood........................  89  56  91  56 /  40  30  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  54  91  55 /  50  30  40  20
Clines Corners..................  83  57  84  56 /  60  40  50  20
Mountainair.....................  88  59  89  58 /  40  30  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  88  60  88  58 /  40  30  60  20
Carrizozo.......................  91  66  91  65 /  50  30  70  20
Ruidoso.........................  83  58  82  58 /  70  30  80  10
Capulin.........................  82  53  80  51 /  50  30  70  30
Raton...........................  86  53  84  53 /  40  20  60  20
Springer........................  88  56  86  54 /  50  30  60  20
Las Vegas.......................  84  54  83  53 /  60  30  60  20
Clayton.........................  88  60  85  60 /  30  40  30  40
Roy.............................  84  58  83  57 /  50  30  50  30
Conchas.........................  92  63  92  63 /  40  40  40  30
Santa Rosa......................  89  63  88  61 /  50  40  40  30
Tucumcari.......................  90  63  88  63 /  20  40  30  40
Clovis..........................  91  66  90  66 /  10  40  20  30
Portales........................  93  66  92  66 /  10  40  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  93  66  93  65 /  30  40  30  20
Roswell.........................  96  70  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
Picacho.........................  90  64  90  63 /  50  20  50  10
Elk.............................  88  61  88  60 /  60  30  60  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42