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000
FXUS65 KABQ 012225
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MST SUN DEC 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUES TO BE NAILING
DOWN WHEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK OVER NW AND WEST CENTRAL NM
WILL SCOUR OUT OF THE AREA. THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE DID
NOT SHOW THESE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PLAGUE THE AREA TODAY BUT ALAS
THEY ARE STILL HOLDING STRONG. THE RUC13 WAS THE BEST TO HOLD ONTO
SATURATION IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT AND EVEN AT THE
SURFACE ARE INCREASING HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE THICK/PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD DECK IS FEEDING BACK TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
AND KEEP A VERY SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED. OTHER INTERESTING
ITEM WILL BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS CAN SEEP OVER THE WEST MESA AND END
UP IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AS INCREASING NW FLOW
ADVECTS THE LAYER SE. BEST SHOT WILL BE WEST SIDE SO HAVE INCREASED
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE OVERNIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE DETAILS
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FIRST WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME WIND. NW FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL
BACK TO WEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY. 700-500MB LAYER WINDS BTWN 50
AND 60KTS WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE
STRONG WEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE EARLY BUT BETS ARE GOOD ON A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM
THE FOLLOWING SHIFT FOR TUESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS THE JET AXIS DEPARTS
TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...THE PLAINS PORTION OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE NE PLAINS.

MODELS THEN STRUGGLE CONSIDERABLY DEALING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHEARING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A REALLY
GOOD CERTAINTY IS THAT IT IS GOING TO GET VERY COLD. AT THIS TIME
THE SUITE OF ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PLAINS PORTION OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING ONTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN WHILE THE SECOND PORTION SHIFTS SOUTH THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. 700MB TEMPS BTWN -10 AND -14C WITH THIS AIRMASS ARE 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO AND RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 25
F BELOW NORMAL ALL AREAS. QPF AND SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE THE GREATEST
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE A BAND OF SNOW WILL SHIFT
SE OVER WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY THEN DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IMPACT THE EAST. THE GFS IS
THEN THE MOST BULLISH BREAKING OUT A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE
SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD THURSDAY THEN TAPERS OFF INTO
THE EAST FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL MAY BE HIGH WITH
EVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP DUE TO THE SEVERITY OF THE COLD AND
BLOWING SNOW.

BELIEVE OR NOT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN EVEN COLDER SECOND ARCTIC
AIRMASS TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. 700MB TEMPS OVER NORTHERN NM ARE ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF
TO FALL TO -24C WHICH IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
IS ALSO ADVERTISED.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER ISSUES NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE STRONG INVERSIONS
IN PLACE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE STATE...
EMPHASIZING THE NW AND WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS TO THE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL CONTINUE QUITE STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MON MORN...IMPROVING SOME MON AFTN AND RETURNING MORE WEAKLY MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORN. AS A RESULT VENTILATION RATES TO REMAIN MAINLY
POOR IN THIS AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE VERY
LOW CLOUD DECK AND FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AND WELL INTO MON MORN.
OTHER SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX CONCERN WILL BE RISK OF MARGINALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PERHAPS 2 OR 3 HOURS TUE AFTN
IN MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 108 IN EAST CENTRAL NM. MAIN
LIMITING ISSUE WILL BE THE MINIMUM RH.

OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY
WILL STILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE ESTANCIA AND UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...RECOVERIES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY 45 TO 55 PERCENT. SCATTERED LOCALES ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE
BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
INTO MON. STILL...POOR VENTILATION/DISPERSION IS EXPECTED WEST OF
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A
COUPLE TO SEVERAL DEGREES OVER TODAY. EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
EXPECT FAIR TO LOCALLY VERY GOOD VENT RATES MON AFTN.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MON NIGHT AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
BY TUE NIGHT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST OF NM. AS
WINDS DRAMATICALLY INCREASE ALOFT THE 10000 FT LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 45 TO 65 KT...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER...ON MUCH OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG BUT RATHER SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT LIKELY
TO ENTER FAR NE NM LATE TUE OR EARLY WED WITH THE USUAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS TUE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE EASTERN PLAINS
WOULD GET SOME DOWNSLOPING WARMING EFFECTS...AS TEMPS RUN 8 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HUMIDITY OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT TUE AFTN.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO WED...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGH TERRAIN ZONES...WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NE AND NW. SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FCST AREA WED...SPREADING FARTHER EAST
THU AND FRI. PREFERRED AREAS WILL BE NW TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. BY
THU THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND
30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LITTLE IF ANY MODERATION FROM THE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI. VENTILATION WILL SEE A MAJOR BOOST TUE AND
WED...BUT THEN STEADILY LOWER THU INTO FRI.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING VERY TOUGH OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NM. UPDATED SKY COVER TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
DESPITE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SCOURING OUT CLOUD COVER. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA ACTUALLY EXPANDING SLIGHTLY.
ALSO NEEDED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THIS AREA AS
VERY LITTLE WARMING IS NOW EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS MAY EVEN STAY
IN PLACE TONIGHT SINCE THE AREA IS LIKELY PROVIDING A FEEDBACK
TO VERY STRONG INVERSIONS IN PLACE. BY MONDAY ATMOSPHERIC WINDS
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGIN INCREASING AHEAD OF A
STRONG PACIFIC FRONT FOR LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  28  44  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  20  47  21  44 /   0   0   0  10
CUBA............................  25  50  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  24  52  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  23  51  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  23  54  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  26  55  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  30  64  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  17  44  19  37 /   0   0   0  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  27  49  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  31  49  30  44 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   7  42  11  38 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  16  40  18  35 /   0   0   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  23  42  24  38 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  12  45  16  43 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  27  51  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  24  51  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  27  48  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  27  52  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  33  55  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  33  57  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  31  58  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  30  58  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  31  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  33  61  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  31  52  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  32  54  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  25  50  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  31  51  32  50 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  34  53  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  39  60  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  30  58  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  28  60  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  27  62  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  30  60  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  35  66  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  34  65  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  37  67  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  40  66  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  37  69  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  39  66  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  41  68  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  42  68  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  42  74  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  42  70  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  42  67  42  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$