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000
FXUS65 KABQ 241844
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1144 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KFMN AND KGUP AND
SURROUNDING AREAS TILL ABOUT 00Z. AREAS OF SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
KSAF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED AREAS OF SNOW MAY
CONTINUE TIL 03Z. GAP WINDS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS UP AT KABQ TIL
AROUND 21Z. LOW CLOUDS AT KROW SHOULD BURN OFF SOON. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AND END AROUND 06Z FOR MOST AREAS AS UPPER EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO
TX/SANTA TERESA NM...
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AND GRAUPEL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN HEAVIER SNOW
AREAS OF THE REGION WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN FORECAST.

ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
WITH AN UPDATE COMING OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY BRINGING SNOW AND GRAUPEL SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT...AND AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS IN STORE FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SNOW MAY ACTUALLY EXPAND THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO BEFORE
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
SOME AREA OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER TO NM...THE EAST WINDS SHOULD KICK BACK
IN...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE RGV THIS
AFTN. BY THAT TIME...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NM...PERHAPS
STRETCHED OUT FROM SW TO NE. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
REMAINS POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH SOME AID
FROM UPSLOPE FLOW IF THE EAST WINDS CAN PUSH THAT FAR WEST...PLUS
INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE...SOME SNOW/GRAUPEL RATES COULD
EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR. THESE RATES ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINTER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT WARNING AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS. WILL ADD THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO AN ADVISORY STARTING AT 18Z. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH IN THESE AREAS...BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
REACHING THE SRN SANGRES EARLY THIS AFTN...AND AS THE LOW SHIFTS
SEWD...TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE SC HIGHLANDS FOR SOME
SNOW TO OCCUR.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT...AND
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH MID
DAY WEDNESDAY. THEN...BY THE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND RESULTANT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDER.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVE AND
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME SNOW SOUTH OF THERE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AFTER THIS POINT...THERE MAY NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE
SNOW/PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RATHER IT JUST MAY TRANSITION
WESTWARD. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO COMES ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT THAT ENHANCES SNOW ACTIVITY AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. ONCE THAT WAVE SLIDES BY...A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE DOWN THE GREAT BASIN AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NW NM SHOULD WILL RESULT
IN THE FOCUS FOR SNOW SHIFT ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A LONG
DURATION SNOW EVENT OVER THIS AREA AS THE GREAT BASIN LOW DOES NOT
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NM UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. THUS...SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PILE UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE N/NW MTNS THRU THE
WEEKEND. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PATTERN...NORTHERN MTN
LOCALES MAY BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET...RATHER THAN INCHES.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EACH DAY AND NIGHT THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AZ WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
REACH SOUTHWEST NM THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WETTING
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO PRIMARILY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE EAST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR IN THE EAST TODAY
WITH EVERYTHING FROM POOR TO VERY GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NOTICEABLY IN THE EAST TODAY BUT WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREA WIDE...ON THE
ORDER OF 10TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE BIT OF A BREAK WEDNESDAY WITH PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW
ALOFT LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BUT STILL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME POOR
RATES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ABOUT OF THIRD OF THE EAST.

THE NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SHOULD SQUEEZE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ZONES THANKS TO
AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS...INCLUDING THE RATON
RIDGE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT DURING THIS TIME WITH WETTING PRECIP
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND MUCH OF THE EAST.

NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. IT WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PRECIP
WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER WINDS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NM MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN
CLAIMING MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GFS TUESDAY.

ONE OR TWO MORE DISTURBANCES COULD IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ514-524-526.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-511.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510.

&&

$$