Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 011153 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NWWD TUESDAY EVENING...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO MAKE A RETURN TO NRN NM OVERNIGHT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STORM
MOTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION WITH STORMS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM MOVING EWD...STORMS OVER NW NM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT AND STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM MOVING
WWD. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
NLY/NWLY WIND MAXIMA MOVES THROUGH. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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