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000
FXUS65 KABQ 130945
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
345 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THINGS STILL SEEM PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR A BOUT OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO...WITH MORE
SPOTTY AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. THE
HONORS WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY A PRETTY VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT AND DEPART MONDAY. THAT AND AN ASSOCIATED STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO NORTHEAST THIRD TO
HALF OF STATE...COOLER ELSEWHERE...STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...RAIN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MANY WEATHER TYPES WILL BE EXCLUDED. THOUGH
DURATION WILL NOT BE TOO LONG... PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
RATHER INTENSE FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY O WEATHER VARIETY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NM LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY OUT
OF THE STATE MON. SOME SLIGHT SNOW ACCUM REDUCTION SEEN BY A WX
PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...
THOUGH THEY STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE ACCUM IN THE LOWER TERRAIN
NEAR AND N OF A ROUGHLY CLAYTON TO SPRINGER LINE...WHERE 4 TO 6
INCHES IS INDICATED. EXCEPT FOR CLOSE TO CO LINE STAYING A LITTLE
BELOW THAT STILL DUE TO SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WARM
IT HAS BEEN LATELY AND HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO ACCUM ONCE
POST FRONTAL TEMPS DROP LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW ACCUMULATION. STAYED
WITH THE CONVERSION OF WATCH TO WINTER WX ADVISORY AS ISSUED BY
PREVIOUS SHIFT...BUT COULD SEE SOME MERIT TO UPGRADING TO MARGINAL
WARNING STATUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR CO LINE. BUT THAT IS TOO SMALL AN
AREA...TOO MARGINAL IN AMOUNTS AND STILL A LITTLE TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS HOW MUCH INITIAL SNOWMELT VS LATER ACCUM
WILL RESULT. POTENT COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS BEHIND
IT OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH BLOWING SNOW AND PERHAPS EVEN BLOWING
DUST PRIOR TO...OR EVEN EARLY IN...THE SNOW PERIOD. BLOWING DUST
AND SNOW WILL RESTRICT THE VISIBILITY...THOUGH DUST REDUCTION
ALONE BELOW 1/2 TO 1 MILES SEEMS UNLIKELY. DURATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT LONG...6 TO 9 HOURS PERHAPS...
BUT COULD BE INTENSE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THIS PERIOD. DRAMATIC
TEMP DROPS ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT SO ALL IN ALL EXPECT A RATTLING
OF THE SENSES FOR THOSE WHO VENTURE FORTH INTO THIS MINI
MAELSTROM. AND EVEN WITH ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME RED FLAG WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL OF
WEST...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NM. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

THE STORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORM WILL GRAZE NE NM WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NE AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NM...THOUGH LATEST
RUNS LOOKING A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEXT WEEKEND NOW
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING PERHAPS A LITTLE WETTER AND FAIRLY
WARM UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL
CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN UPSTREAM PATTERN EVOLUTION TO START THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HEART OF TEXAS LATER
TODAY...AS NEXT INBOUND SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AMPLIFIES NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG
TO THE HEART OF TEXAS ON MONDAY...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN FAIRLY
LAMINAR MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO ZONAL AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS MIDWEEK...AS QUICK DISTURBANCE CLIPS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO EN ROUTE TO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. BY EARLY
FRIDAY...TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND DRIFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION EMERGING
MONDAY...AS EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION HANGS ON TO A BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS
SOLUTION BUILDS A RIDGE NORTHWARD OUT OF CHIHUAHUA ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH SOLUTIONS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
UPSTREAM...AS NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW UNCOILS INTO A WAVE AND
BEGINS SHEAR TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY
MIDWEEK...KEEPING NEW MEXICO IN ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE FEATURE. GIVEN GFS SOLUTION EDGING CLOSER TO ECMWF
STORY...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING TILTED THIS WAY FOR NOW
PENDING A MORE COHERENT STORY AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...COLD PUSH INVADING NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND EXPANDING
RAPIDLY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE WITH HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW WILL FOCUS ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST NEAR THE
FRONT...AS WEST WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST ALONG THE TEXAS
BORDER AND PROVIDE SOME UP SLOPE SHOWER ENHANCEMENT AGAINST THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING OVER
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NEAR THE TEXAS LINE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
PUSH BARRELS THROUGH. HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
PCT SOUTH...AND IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS PCT WEST...WILL COMBINE WITH
WINDS AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING 5 TO 6 FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NO VENTILATION ISSUES IN WHISTLING TRANSPORT
WINDS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN
THE NORTHEAST IN MUCH COOLER AIR.

FOR MONDAY...TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE SHORT WORK OF QUICK TRIP
OUT OF SOUTHERN UTAH ACROSS NEW MEXICO...EXITING TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TEMPERATURE COLLAPSE WILL LEAVE
MUCH OF THE EAST 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS...WITH 8
TO 15 DEGREE COLD DEPARTURES IN THE WEST. BOOSTS IN MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL BRING ALL BUT THE EXTREME WEST INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S PCT WITH SOME 30S PCT OVER THE NORTHEAST. SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EAST...WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DROPPING
OFF RAPIDLY AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. STATE LINE NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER...BUT
VENTILATION WILL SLIDE BACK TOWARD GOOD CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
LOCALLY DEGRADED VENTILATION IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO HIGH COUNTRY. GENERALLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WORKING INTO NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES BOUNCING RIGHT BACK TO MID
APRIL NORMALS. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO...AND RAPID DRYING AND WARMING WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
RIGHT BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS PCT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
HOURS AT LEAST OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH HAINES INDICES SOLIDLY IN
THE 4 TO 5 RANGE...LOCALLY TO 6...ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE. VENTILATION
RETURNING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITIONS WITH POOR TO FAIR
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLING DIP INTO THURSDAY WITH
A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON FRIDAY...AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EAST AND BULGES WESTWARD AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTHERN SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AS NEXT INBOUND
PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GUSTY WEDNESDAY WINDS
WILL HIT CONTINUED VERY DRY HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW
MEXICO...AS HAINES INDICES PEG UPWARD TO 5 AND 6 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AIR OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL BOOST MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT...LOCALLY INTO THE LOW
TEENS PCT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS
PCT OVER ALL THE CENTRAL AND WEST ON FRIDAY...AS HUMIDITIES HANG ON
TO THE HIGH TEENS PCT OVER THE EAST. EXCELLENT VENTILATION WEDNESDAY
WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD GOOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING DURING FORECAST PERIOD. SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND VIRGA SHOWERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MOST
LIKELY FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AFTER 15Z TO 18Z GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH RACE INTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 21Z...FIRST PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THEN INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  68  29  57  25 /  20  10   0   0
DULCE...........................  65  22  54  17 /  20  20   5   5
CUBA............................  67  26  50  20 /  20  20   5   0
GALLUP..........................  67  24  55  16 /  20  10   0   0
EL MORRO........................  62  24  48  19 /  10  10   0   0
GRANTS..........................  67  27  52  19 /  10  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  65  30  54  23 /   5   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  75  32  68  24 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  61  20  46  17 /  30  30   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  33  44  29 /  20  40   5   0
PECOS...........................  63  31  39  23 /  20  40  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  65  23  46  18 /  30  50  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  53  19  35  14 /  60  70  20   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  58  21  37  11 /  60  70  30   5
TAOS............................  66  24  45  17 /  30  30  10   5
MORA............................  63  28  39  20 /  40  60  30   5
ESPANOLA........................  72  29  51  27 /  20  30   5   0
SANTA FE........................  67  29  46  28 /  20  30  20   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  30  50  26 /  10  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  73  35  54  34 /  10  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  38  56  34 /   5  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  76  36  58  29 /   5  10   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  76  38  58  31 /   5  20   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  78  35  59  27 /   5  10   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  76  36  57  32 /  10  20   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  79  41  60  34 /   5   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  70  33  50  29 /  10  20  10   0
TIJERAS.........................  71  34  50  30 /  10  20  10   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  69  24  47  21 /  10  20  20   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  25  43  23 /  10  40  20   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  70  29  48  26 /   5  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  73  35  52  30 /   5  10   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  67  30  46  27 /   5  20  10   0
CAPULIN.........................  54  20  36  19 /  60  80  20   5
RATON...........................  64  23  41  19 /  40  70  20   5
SPRINGER........................  64  23  41  20 /  30  60  20   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  65  22  42  22 /  20  40  20   5
CLAYTON.........................  57  22  42  25 /  30  80  20   5
ROY.............................  63  23  41  22 /  20  60  20   5
CONCHAS.........................  70  27  46  28 /  10  40  20   5
SANTA ROSA......................  74  29  46  26 /   5  30  20   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  28  48  26 /  10  40  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  74  30  45  25 /   5  30  20   5
PORTALES........................  77  31  46  26 /   5  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  79  34  48  27 /   5  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  85  40  55  29 /   5  20   5   5
PICACHO.........................  78  36  50  26 /   5  20  20   0
ELK.............................  72  35  48  26 /   5  20  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105>109.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>515-527-528-530.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ506-523.

&&

$$

43