Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251620 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1020 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER SKY COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. REST
OF FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
SENT SHORTLY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...552 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A DYNAMIC DAY UNFOLDING TODAY AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT RACES THRU
THE REGION. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM THIS
MORNING AND PEAK BTWN 21-01Z. AWW WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS ARE LIKELY
FOR KABQ. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE RAIN/STORMS
ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BLDU WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM
KCAO SOUTH TO KTCC AND KCVS WHERE VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BAND. LOW CLOUDS BTWN 020-030 WITH SHRA WILL DEVELOP
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT THEN CLEAR SLOWLY OVERNIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST AREAS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL QUICKLY ENOUGH
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES. THEN...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE SWEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
TODAY AND TONIGHT A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY. THEY ALSO BRING THE
COLD FRONT IN FASTER...COLDER AND WITH STRONGER WINDS. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SPEEDS COULD BE TOUCHED ON THE
PLAINS AND IN SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
THESE SPEEDS TO LAST LONG ENOUGH OR BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. BLOWING DUST COULD ALSO BECOME SIGNIFICANT
ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL REACH MOST AREAS
DURING AN UNSTABLE TIME OF THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WITH THE STORM WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SANGRES AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THE MOUNTAINS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER WILL BE FAVORED FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...INCLUDING RATON PASS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM CLINES CORNERS
EASTWARD INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW
SPREADS CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES COULD
DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IT COULD ALSO SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE NE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NM AND NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WINDY AND VERY DRY TODAY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

A POTENT PACIFIC COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE BACK DOOR PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WILL RACE SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. A POTENT DRY
SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM NW NEW MEXICO INTO THE ABQ
METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
LOW HAINES SHOULD ADD TO REDUCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST DRY SLOT WIND EVENT SO FAR THIS SEASON AND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY FOR THIS AREA...SO ENHANCED AWARENESS IS
STILL PRUDENT. FARTHER EAST...COLD AND MOIST ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH A FEW STORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE VERY DRY AND
TRANQUIL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. VENTILATION
WILL TREND FROM POOR/FAIR THURSDAY BACK TO GOOD/EXCELLENT SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER EACH DAY AS WELL WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH MOST
AREAS AVERAGING 10 TO 20 PERCENT. RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD IN AND
AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPEARS ON THE HORIZON LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL JUST
YET. AN UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND TRANSLATE EAST
INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR FRONT IS NOTED ENTERING THE
EAST WITH COOLER TEMPS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE. TOP DOWN MOISTENING
FROM THE WEST MAY MEET THIS FRONT AND PROVIDE SCATTERED RAIN AND
STORMS PRIMARILY MONDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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