Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 131753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1053 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

Low clouds producing MVFR conditions will be slow to erode across
SE areas this afternoon, with areas likely lingering through sunset.
A moist SELY return flow will remain in place over SE areas tonight
with a return of low clouds, MVFR and possibly IFR conditions from
the Pecos River Valley eastward and from the Caprock southward.
Farther N on the plains there will be a stronger westerly component
to the flow resulting in stronger downslope compression and little or
no low clouds. An upper level trough passing N of NM on Tuesday will
steer a Pacific cold front into the state from the NW during the late
afternoon. There will also be gusty SW winds across much of the
plains Tuesday afternoon, before a back door cold front crosses there
Tuesday night.



.PREV DISCUSSION...240 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017...
Plentiful high clouds will continue to stream from west to east across
New Mexico today. Low clouds and fog will also continue for portions
of the eastern plains through the morning hours. Dry condtions with
temperatures above to well above average levels are on track today
and again Tuesday. High temperatures across much of the eastern
plains Tuesday will reach or exceed records for the date. Another
backdoor cold front will move through the eastern plains Tuesday
night, cooling temperatures down close to average for mid November. A
Pacific storm system will slide east through Colorado Friday,
bringing increasing winds and cooler temperatures to all areas Friday
night and Saturday.


Zonal/westerly flow aloft will be the rule over NM through the
week. Low clouds and fog will continue across the east-central and
southeast plains through late morning/early afternoon. Near record
high temperatures are forecast today across the far northwest portion
of the state with record temperatures forecast for much of the
eastern plains Tuesday. An upper level trough moving east through the
Northern Rockies and Northern Plains will send another dry and
relatively weak backdoor cold front down the eastern plains Tuesday
night. Latest model suite does not have this front doesn`t making
much progress west of the central mountain chain Wednesday morning,
resulting in brief east or southeast breezes into the RGV and little
else. Cooler temps east of the central mountain chain Wednesday will
be the main impact from this feature.

GFS and ECWMF in better agreement with the timing of a stronger upper
level trough crossing eastward through CO at the end of the week.
Winds will be the main impact from this system Friday, especially
for the northern and central high terrain. A few light showers or
mountain snow showers may graze the northern mountains near the CO
line Friday into Friday night with wind and cooler temps the result
elsewhere. A much cooler airmass will push in from the northwest
Friday night and Saturday. Still looking iffy for a freeze at the ABQ
Sunport Saturday morning. Latest raw and bias corrected temperature
guidance sticking to the mid 30s for lows at the Sunport and NE

No end in sight from the dry and warm weather of late through 10 days.
GFS a little more hopeful than the ECWMF which has a strong (594 dm)
high near LAX at 240 hours. There is some good news with respect to
sea surface temps (SSTs). A large area of SSTs west and southwest of
Puerto Vallarta have been rapidly warming over the past couple of
days. The temperature difference/gradient between these waters and
the cooler waters associated with the weak La Nina along the Equator
will keep sub-tropical convection going for the next several weeks,
helping to draw the polar jet farther south hopefully by the end of
the month. Hopefully.



With high pressure projected to remain over old Mexico for the next
few days and westerly flow aloft persisting over NM, a rather
repetitive pattern will continue with periodic temperature drops in
the eastern half of the state and minimal chances for precipitation.
In the wake of yesterday`s cold front through eastern NM, higher RH,
remnant low clouds, and cooler temperatures will stay entrenched
over the east central plains while other zones attempt to warm up a
few degrees with some late breaks in cloud cover. Mixing heights
will be lowest today in the lower elevations of the San Juan valley,
the middle Rio Grande valley, and in the far eastern plains of the
state, and ultimately this will keep inefficient mixing and
ventilation through the afternoon there today. Good to excellent RH
recovery is expected in most lower elevation areas overnight into
Tuesday morning with the higher, more exposed slopes and peaks
observing less recovery.

Into Tuesday, after another round of low clouds and fog burn off of
the eastern plains, better mixing of the westerly flow aloft will
bring warmer temperatures with all zones exceeding normal by 10 to
20 degrees. Better ventilation and smoke dispersion will accompany
the deeper vertical mixing, with breezy to locally windy conditions
over the higher central terrain of the state. Minimum RH should
range between 15 to 25 percent area-wide Tuesday afternoon.

The cold front that will arrive into eastern NM Tuesday night into
Wednesday will offer notable cooling, but still be unable to drop
temperatures below normal. Otherwise the frontal passage should be
dry with winds staying light to moderately breezy. Winds shifting
back westerly or southwesterly into Thursday will bounce
temperatures back 10 to 15 degrees above mid November averages with
the poor smoke ventilation over much of central to eastern NM on
Wednesday getting scoured out by Thursday afternoon.

A significant trough passage will occur in the CO Rockies Thursday
night into Friday with a substantial increase in winds, especially
over the mountains of central/northern NM. Temperatures will stay
above average Friday before falling back to more seasonal readings
Saturday when the front attending the aforementioned trough slides
into eastern zones of NM. The flow aloft then turns more
northwesterly into Sunday and Monday of next week, potentially
allowing another cool front to arrive.




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