Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 180551 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
While the peak wind maximum has edged east of then fcst area, but
there may still be some localized gusts before dawn to between 20
and 35 kts at spotty locations mainly from the Sangre de Cristos
east into the ne highlands. A weak back door cold front will
continue southbound across the eastern plains through early to mid
morn, shifting winds to the north and ne behind it. Wind speeds
though will be light to at most moderate. Winds to be lighter Tue
than today most areas, though they will still be gusty at times
primarily across the ne third to half of the state. Winds to
diminish fairly quickly Tue eve.
.PREV DISCUSSION...713 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2016...
Let wind advisories expire at 700pm MDT and cancelled the high
wind warnings that were in effect through 900pm MDT. Lowered
wind speeds accordingly. No other changes. Zones out shortly.
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2016...
The jet stream will remain stout, oriented across the central
Rockies through the middle part of the week. This has led to some
strong winds at the surface, primarily impacting northeastern New
Mexico into Colorado. These winds should gradually subside in
the lower elevations around sunset, but will be a bit more
prolonged over mountain ridge tops this evening. A weak cold
front will knock temperatures down a few degrees tonight into
Tuesday, but winds will be substantially less during the daytime.
Yet another front will arrive on Wednesday, and temperatures will
finally fall within a few degrees of the seasonal averages for mid
October. Winds will be gusty along this second front, mostly in
the eastern plains of New Mexico. Thursday`s high temperatures
will run a few degrees cooler than Wednesday`s, but will still be
close to average with a warming trend expected to finish up the
A stout jet continues to stretch across the central Rockies with
several perturbations embedded in this disturbed flow. While the
strongest winds aloft are found in WY/CO, there is still an
impressive speed max aloft clipping northern parts of the state
with mountain wave activity occurring along/east of the Sangre de
Cristos. The high wind warning will continue through 9pm for the
Sangre zones and parts of the I-25 corridor, while the wind
advisory for lower elevation zones should be fine to expire around
sunset with quicker decoupling of daytime heating and the vertical
mixing. The evening shift might be able to cancel the warning
earlier if things decouple quicker than expected. Otherwise,
tonight`s minimum temperatures should be quite mild, even with a
surface cold front sliding down the plains.
Tonight`s front will set temperatures back some 10 to 20 degrees
in the eastern plains of NM on Tuesday, but drops will not be as
pronounced elsewhere with daytime highs still exceeding normal
across most of the state. Substantially less wind is forecast on
Tuesday with some brief northerly gusts accompanying the front in
the plains tonight, but veering southerly into Tuesday afternoon.
Strongest gusts would be in both the northeastern plains and the
northern mountains where occasional peaks of 25 to 35 mph will be
met. All precipitation will bypass north of NM where another
perturbation aloft will be quickly moving.
On Wednesday a second front will spill southward into NM as the
trailing final disturbances aloft exit WY/CO and shift into the
Great Plains. This will drop temperatures another 3 to 10
degrees, making highs within a few degrees either side of mid
October averages. Winds will be gusty in the plains of NM as the
front spills southward, and the San Juan basin in northwest NM
will also be gusty too Wednesday afternoon. Moisture will be
absent, and no precipitation is forecast Wednesday.
Into Thursday, some of the cooling effects of the front will
continue to be observed with temperatures running a couple degrees
cooler, but still not too far from average. Winds could be a bit
breezy in central valley locales in the morning, but will be
light by the afternoon. Conditions will remain dry, and a large
bubble of high pressure aloft will be taking shape upstream over
High pressure will move directly over NM on Friday before
translating eastward and out of the state this weekend. This will
spell a warming trend for NM with dry conditions and tranquil
winds. In fact, much of the mid to late week period will remain
cloud-free, until Saturday night and Sunday when some high cirrus
could roll back into the state.
The main fire weather concern after today`s critical conditions and
a couple of cold fronts tonight and early Wednesday, will be broad
areas of poor ventilation Wednesday through the end of the week.
The jet stream that brought strong winds to the area will exit east
of the Rockies tonight allowing surface wind speeds to decrease on
Tuesday. They`ll remain breezy along and east of the northern
mountains. A cold front will also drop southward through the state
tonight causing high temperatures to trend downward a few to 20
degrees on Tuesday, and minimum humidities to climb a few to 11
percent. Even so, high temperatures will remain a few to 13 degrees
above normal (except for the northeast corner), and there will be
areas of humidities near and a little below 15% along and south of I-
40. Haines indices will also moderate on Tuesday.
An upper level trough will clip NE NM as it ejects from the central
Rockies on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Precipitation will stay
north of our state, but the system will send a decent cold front
southward. The front will cool northern areas to near normal on
Wednesday, and eastern areas up to 5 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Large pockets of poor ventilation will begin to develop
across north central, central and west central areas on Wednesday.
Most areas will then experience poor ventilation on Thursday.
Dry weather will continue Friday through the weekend as a a strong
ridge of high pressure dominates the southwest US. Broad areas of
poor ventilation will persist each day, except for parts of the east
where there will be some ventilation improvement in response to
periods of gusty downslope flow.