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000
FXUS65 KABQ 041152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BELT OF IMPRESSIVELY STRONG MT TOP WINDS TO SAG FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER NM THROUGH 05/00Z. SW-WLY SFC WND GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT
POSSIBLE ALG AND W OF THE CONTDVD AS WELL AS OVR THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. CDFNT TO MV INTO FAR NW NM BY 19Z
WITH MT OBSCURATIONS DVLPG ALG WITH SCT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
-SHSN/BR/FGFZ. CIGS AOB 010 MAY PERSIST IN FAR NE NM THRU 05/00Z
BEFORE BCMG MORE WDSPRD AS BACK DOOR CDFNT SURGES INTO THE ERN
PLNS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013...
...STRONG WINDS...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SNOW TO IMPACT
NEW MEXICO...

WINDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...AS WAS
ANTICIPATED. THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE COME IN...BUT THE GUSTS
HITTING RIDGE TOPS AND DOWNWIND HIGHLANDS HAVE BEEN SPORADIC AND
INTERMITTENT AT BEST. HAVE MASSAGED THE WIND
HIGHLIGHTS...REPLACING THE WARNING OVER THE SANGRES WITH AN
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...THE INHERITED ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR WIND
ARE IN TACT. IN THE NORTHEAST THE ARCTIC FRONT IS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN MODELS WERE INDICATED...SO TODAY`S TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS
AGAIN UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE IN ALL OF THE NORTHERN ZONES. THICK
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SHOWN BY THE GFS TODAY...AND THIS JIVES WITH
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO SOME AREAS WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHERN ZONES.

PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GEL IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TODAY...PARTICULARLY AFTER NOON. HEALTHIEST
LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL STAY
NORTH OF NM...BUT STILL OROGRAPHICS COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD YIELD SOME QUICK CONDENSATION
AND PRECIPITATION. SAN JUANS/TUSAS MAY EVEN BEGIN ACCUMULATING
SOME SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT STARTED WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL 5PM/00Z. THIS WILL SIMPLIFY THE TRANSITION
FROM WIND TO WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. HAVE UPGRADED ZONES WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS FROM SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES SURROUNDING WHERE SNOW IMPACTS WILL
EXIST...BUT NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED DUE TO LOWER ACCUMULATIONS. FOR
NOW THE WINTER STATEMENTS RUN THROUGH 11PM THURSDAY EVENING...AND
SOME ADDITIONAL SATELLITE ZONES MAY BE ADDED FOR AREAS LIKE THE
QUAY COUNTY ZONE AND SANTA FE METRO ZONES.

SOME POTENTIAL TO BUST ON TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY EXISTS...BUT FOR
NOW GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONVERGING REASONABLY WELL. COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. SOMETHING
THAT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED WITH LATEST RUNS IS A FARTHER PROGRESSION
OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WEST OF THE
CLINES CORNERS AREA AND EVEN UP TO THE SANDIA/MANZANOS. A BIT
SKEPTICAL ABOUT THIS...GIVEN THE SHALLOW ARCTIC NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS...BUT CLINES CORNERS SHOULD EASILY OBSERVE THE FRINGE OF
THE FRONT WITH UPSLOPE AND A HEALTHY ROUND OF SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY TRY TO MODERATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THEY WILL BE UNABLE
TO. EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
QUICK-HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT PRODUCE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT DETAILS ARE STILL FORTHCOMING.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SURFACE FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SW/WEST CENTRAL CO AND SWWD THROUGH UT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LGT SNOW REPORTED ALONG AND BEHIND IT. TO THE EAST...THE NLY
WIND SHIFT HAS PROGRESSED AT BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
ATTM AND HAS SPREAD LOW CLOUDS INTO THE CLAYTON AREA. HOWEVER...THE
REALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN FARTHER NORTH OVER NE CO AND
MODELS STILL INDICATE THIS INITIAL WIND SHIFT WON/T MAKE MUCH MORE
PROGRESS SWD UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE COLDEST AIR POURS INTO ERN NM.

THE VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE NOT FOR THE MOST PART DEVELOPED OVER THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS ACCORDING TO AVAILABLE OBS DESPITE THE
EXISTENCE OF SOME HEFTY SPEEDS AT H7. AS THE HOURS TICK BY EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH AS THE BELT OF STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT SAGS SWD TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AFTER MIDDAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT OVERALL TODAY BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST AND A
FEW SPOTS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. HIGHS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE LAST DAY TODAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN THIRD WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER LATER TODAY BRINGING SOME SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH IT...THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHES FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. IN THE WEST...RATES WILL BE MAINLY GOOD OR BETTER THURSDAY
BUT TRANSITION TO FAIR OR MARGINALLY GOOD FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS
WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MODIFY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IT LATER
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE REGION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT MODELS DO WITH
THIS FEATURE AS THERE IS A HINT A CLOSED LOW COULD DEVELOP. POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD WERE RAISED FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST 24 HRS AGO AND AT
LEAST THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NORTH AND
WEST. A RELATIVELY WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND INTO THE RGV IN THE
KSAF AND KABQ VICINITIES MAY BE INDUCED BY THIS INCOMING
FEATURE...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

BRISK NW FLOW ALF WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALA THE GFS
COULD MATERIALIZE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SO FAR NO
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED. THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH SHARPER FEATURE
BUT ALSO NO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...
NMZ502-505-506-508-510>515-522-524-525-527-528-531-532-537-539-540.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ521-523-526-529-533.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>508-511>514-516-521-522-527-530>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-515-523-528-529.

&&

$$