Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 031742 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE. LOOKING AT MTN TOP OBSCD AND SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE NC MTNS TODAY
BUT TERMINAL TAF SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS AT LVS SO
DECIDED TO HOLD OF IN PLACING RESTRICTIONS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL RELOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ISSUANCE. FMN LATE TONIGHT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT LEFT IT OUT
AT THIS TIME.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND
MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT
SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN
UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION.

DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS
A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS
GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO
BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE
THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF
ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR
VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR
WESTERN BORDER OF NM.

BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING
DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS.

FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS
THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY
THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS...
VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS
WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL
APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT
COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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