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000
FXUS65 KABQ 270538 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Mid level cloud deck near 012 making northward progress late this
evening ahead of a batch of -RA over southern NM. Expect clouds to
continue spreading northward thru sunrise w/ light precip impacts
south and west of a line from KONM to KGUP. Not much change Tuesday
as clouds and -SHRA lift northwest toward eastern AZ. Clouds will
taper off after sunset as a dry slot moves overhead.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A gradual warming trend will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. The
one exception will be across far western New Mexico where clouds
and a few showers associated with a weak upper low over Arizona
will keep temperatures in check. On Thursday, moisture associated
with Tropical Storm Roslyn is forecast to move into western and
central New Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast along and west of the central mountain chain Thursday
afternoon and evening. Residual moisture will result in isolated
showers or storms across the northwest two-thirds Friday with
drier air moving in for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Closed upper low near Laguna San Ignacio (central Baja) this
afternoon continues to draw up subtropical moisture up from the
southeast and across far southern NM. Low level dry air making it
tough for any precip to make it as far north as the south-central
and southwest mountains today. Lowered precip chances for tonight
across southwest and west-central locations as a result. Models
lift the upper low to the northeast on Tuesday for slightly better
shower chances across the far west as a 75kt jet noses up from the
south. Upper low center then drifts nwwd toward San Diego on
Wednesday. GFS is a bit more excited about precip across the far
west Wednesday than the NAM or ECMWF due to the fact that it keeps
a 50kt swly jet over the area. Blended precip forecast for
Wednesday in-between the GFS and NAM/ECMWF.

GFS, NAM12 and ECMWF are in good agreement that the remnant
moisture and circulation associated with Tropical Storm Roslyn
will move up from the southwest and across the western two thirds
of NM Thursday. Best shot at heavier amounts are progged over the
southwest and west-central mountains Thursday afternoon and
evening. NAM12 is the farthest east with moisture and precip,
developing showers and storms along and west of the central
mountain chain.

Dry air and a weak transitory upper ridge move overhead Saturday.
Mostly sunny sky and light wind the likely result. An upper level
trough is progged to swing inland across the PACNW Sunday. Models
agree that a lee side sfc low will strengthen across eastern CO
Sunday afternoon and result in southwest breezes, especially east
of the central mountains. Above mentioned trough is forecast to
drop into the Great Basin and deepen early next week. Increasing
winds will be the main concern through mid week, particularly for
afternoon/evening activities susceptible to moderate to strong
winds.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No real significant changes made to the gridded forecast. Latest
model guidance came in a bit drier in terms of humidity near term
but moistening will occur later in the week. Peak moisture transport
appears to be Thursday/Friday before gradual drying process during
the weekend. Thursday/Friday is when the highest chances for wetting
rain arrives...favoring western and perhaps central areas. Near term
chances will be the lighter variety and found across SW and WC
portions of the forecast area.

The cut off low responsible for the unsettle weather across the west
near term will shift northward and weaken from its central Baja
location. During this shift...deeper...subtropical moisture will
flow northward into the state. Cloud cover will be most abundant
across the western and southern tier. Eventually a stronger Pacific
trough will edge closer to the state later in the week and shear out
the cut off low. This will occur Thursday/Friday and allow the
highest round of moisture to move over the state. The key will be
how the moisture can be wrung out in the form of showers and
thunderstorms. Western areas should be favored most. Eastern areas
would likely be downsloped due to the lack of a back door cold
front. Ventilation would improve due to increases in transport wind.
Confidence at least moderate for measurable precipitation and
localized wetting moisture across the west late week.

Models are in agreement with an atmospheric dry slot moving over the
state during the weekend as the Pacific trough slides over the
northern and central Rockies. Moisture appears to be very limited at
this time so noticeable drops in RH and increased surface wind is
probable. There is a possibility that the southern end of the trough
cuts off and splits the atmospheric energy thus lessening the wind
potential and drying this weekend. Too early to say right now but
the models are all showing drying and increased wind at this time.

It appears that the trough could receive a secondary piece of jet
energy early next week and allow for further wind strengthening
aloft. Based on the current atmospheric/oceanic patterns...not very
confident in this scenario. If a consolidated jet does move
overhead...ventilation would certainly be good but daily rounds of
strong surface wind and downsloping would impact the eastern half of
the forecast area. An area that will experience further grass curing
or dormancy fuel moisture drying.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$