039
FXUS65 KABQ 070801
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
201 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- Dry and hot conditions will persist over the western half of
  New Mexico through the end of the week. Isolated showers and
  storms with gusty winds and little rainfall may develop along
  the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley each afternoon,
  but most areas will remain dry and hot with increasing risk for
  heat-related illnesses.

- Daily showers and storms will develop near the central mountain
  chain and high plains of eastern New Mexico through the end of
  the week. A few storms may be strong with gusty winds, hail,
  frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall today and
  Tuesday. The risk for flash flooding will remain high today
  around Ruidoso.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The Monsoon High will strengthen northward into western NM today and
Tuesday while a series of tropical waves with deep convection move
west off the coast of Mexico. Meanwhile, a closed low that has been
meandering off the CA coast with a 70 kt speed max over the Great
Basin, will also lift north toward the Pacific Northwest. Low
level moisture will remain in place today across eastern NM where
southeasterly return flow keeps dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s.
Strong afternoon heating will interact with this moisture and lift
along the central mt chain to produce another round of showers
and storms. SBCAPE values over eastern NM are still progged above
1000 J/kg with lifted indices below -5C and effective bulk shear
of 25 to 35kt. An upper level shortwave is also shown sliding
southeast off the Front Range today which will enhance ascent over
northeast NM. There is another `Marginal Risk` area for severe
storms across the northeast plains where large hail and damaging
winds are possible. The flash flood threat will remain high over
the Ruidoso area where slow-moving storms will be capable of
producing rainfall amounts of 1-2" in an hour. A Flash Flood Watch
has been issued. Storms are expected to linger over eastern NM
again tonight as has been the case for the past several days.

Storm coverage is likely to decrease Tuesday as the H5 high builds
to near 598dm over western NM. Storms are still likely to initiate
near the central mt chain then move slow and erratically southward
into the high plains. Very small footprints of heavy rainfall are
expected. The flash flood threat may remain high for the Ruidoso
area with storm motions following the terrain from north to south.
Max temps will approach 100F in the ABQ metro area and perhaps in
Farmington where Heat Advisories may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

By Wednesday, the H5 high center builds to near 599dm over western
NM and eastern AZ. This ridge will likely produce enough subsidence
and mid level warming to limit storm coverage significantly compared
to recent days. Very dry air will also remain in place over western
and central NM with minimum humidity near 10% in many areas. Max
temps will very likely rise above 100F in the ABQ metro area and
around Farmington (>80% chance). Isolated storms may still be able
to form over eastern NM however any rainfall will be limited and
gusty downburst winds may be more common.

Thursday is currently advertised by the NBM auto-populated grid
forecast to be the hottest day of the week for the entire region.
Heat Advisories appear likely for several areas, including the ABQ
metro, Farmington, Glenwood, Socorro, and perhaps some western high
terrain areas. Dry air will remain in place over central and western
NM with westerly breezes possible. A few storms cannot be ruled
out over northeast NM as another shortwave trough approaches from
the northwest. This shortwave trough is actually the remnants of
the closed low that is currently off the west coast.

Forecast uncertainty begins to increase Friday with respect to the
strength and orientation of the upper level high over AZ and NM.
Global models show a series of upper level troughs ejecting out
of the northern Rockies in association with a 100kt speed max
approaching from the Gulf of AK. These troughs may deflect the
upper ridge westward into SoCal by next weekend. A moist backdoor
cold front then attempts to enter eastern NM with this pattern
beginning late Friday. A potential uptick in storm coverage is
possible for areas along and east of the central mt chain by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

SHRA/TS will dissipate over southeast NM early this morning then mid
levels clouds will dissipate thru sunrise. An area of low clouds may
form over northeast NM for a few hours before sunrise. NBM probs for
MVFR cigs (<3kft) is near 40% at KCAO. Monday will be another active
day with storms initiating along the central mt chain then moving
east/southeast thru eastern NM. A few storms may become strong to
severe again with downburst wind gusts, hail, heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning. Western NM will remain mostly dry and hot with a
few high-based gusty showers possible along the Continental Divide.
Storms may linger well into the evening over eastern NM while the
rest of the area clears thru midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Very dry and hot conditions will persist over western and central
NM thru the end of this week. Recent model guidance has trended
toward lower humidity with even hotter temps for all of western NM
thru Friday. Northwest and west-central NM may see min RH fall to
near 8% today thru Wednesday, then as low as 5% Thursday and
Friday. Fortunately, winds will remain light thru Wednesday.
However, by Thursday, an upper level trough is expected to pass
north of the region and may allow stronger westerly breezes to
develop over northwest NM. This pattern may create a few hours of
marginally critically fire weather Thursday and Friday, which will
lead to more active fire growth on any fires across the area.
Eastern NM will still see higher storm chances today and Tuesday
with locally heavy rainfall possible. By Wednesday, storm coverage
is likely to decrease across eastern NM as well with very small
footprints of heavy rainfall and hotter temps thru Friday. A
backdoor cold front may enter eastern NM over the weekend with an
uptick in storms with heavy rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  60  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  92  47  93  46 /  10   5   0   0
Cuba............................  90  57  92  56 /  10  10   5   0
Gallup..........................  92  52  95  52 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  89  57  92  58 /  10   5   5   5
Grants..........................  92  54  94  55 /  10   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  90  59  92  59 /  30  20  10  10
Magdalena.......................  90  63  92  65 /  30  20  10   5
Datil...........................  87  59  90  60 /  30  20  10  10
Reserve.........................  95  57  98  56 /  50  20  20  10
Glenwood........................ 100  62 102  63 /  40  30  30  20
Chama...........................  84  49  87  49 /  30  10   5   0
Los Alamos......................  85  61  88  62 /  30  10  10   5
Pecos...........................  85  57  87  57 /  50  20  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  85  54  87  56 /  50  20  20   5
Red River.......................  76  46  77  46 /  50  20  30   5
Angel Fire......................  78  40  80  40 /  50  20  30   5
Taos............................  87  52  89  54 /  40  20  20   5
Mora............................  81  51  83  51 /  60  30  30  10
Espanola........................  93  61  96  61 /  30  20  10   5
Santa Fe........................  87  61  90  62 /  40  20  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  91  60  93  61 /  30  20  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  69  97  69 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  68  98  68 /  10  20   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  68 101  67 /  10  20   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   5   5
Belen...........................  97  67 100  66 /  10  20   0   5
Bernalillo......................  97  66 100  66 /  10  10   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  97  66 100  65 /  10  20   0   5
Corrales........................  98  67 100  67 /  10  10   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  97  68  99  67 /   5  20   0   5
Placitas........................  93  65  95  66 /  10  20  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  97  67  99  67 /  10  10   5   5
Socorro.........................  99  69 101  70 /  20  20   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  59  91  60 /  20  20  10   5
Tijeras.........................  90  62  92  62 /  20  20  10  10
Edgewood........................  89  56  91  57 /  20  20  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  55  92  54 /  20  20  20   5
Clines Corners..................  83  57  85  57 /  40  30  20  10
Mountainair.....................  89  58  90  59 /  20  20  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  87  58  89  59 /  40  20  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  90  65  92  65 /  40  20  30  10
Ruidoso.........................  82  59  83  58 /  70  10  50   5
Capulin.........................  81  52  82  55 /  60  30  30  10
Raton...........................  85  53  87  55 /  60  30  30   5
Springer........................  86  54  88  56 /  50  30  30   5
Las Vegas.......................  82  53  85  54 /  50  30  30  10
Clayton.........................  86  61  89  63 /  30  40  10  10
Roy.............................  83  58  85  59 /  40  40  20  10
Conchas.........................  91  64  92  64 /  40  40  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  88  62  89  62 /  40  40  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  89  63  90  63 /  30  40  10  20
Clovis..........................  90  66  91  65 /  30  30  20  20
Portales........................  92  66  92  65 /  30  30  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  92  65  93  65 /  30  30  20  10
Roswell.........................  94  71  95  70 /  20  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  89  64  90  63 /  50  10  20  10
Elk.............................  87  61  88  60 /  70  10  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42