Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 241013
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
313 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
As the freezing fog diminishes across northeast New Mexico this
morning, the snow will taper off elsewhere. Critical fire weather
conditions will return to the plains as wind increase and low
humidities persist. Meanwhile, all areas will see much cooler
temperatures today thanks to a Pacific cold front. Another trough
will slide over northern New Mexico on Sunday, which may bring some
light snow to the northern New Mexico mountains. Warmer temperatures
are in store for Monday and Tuesday, though winds will pick up again
by Tuesday. More precipitation could be on the way for Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moist, southeasterly low level flow across Union County resulted in
freezing fog early this morning with some minimal ice accretion
likely. Surface winds are waffling now, and visibilities are slowing
improving. Strong westerly winds will develop shortly after sunrise,
which will quickly mix out the remaining low clouds and fog.

Speaking of wind, 700mb winds of 50 to 60kts should be peaking over
the south central mountains around the time of this writing, though
they will remain quite strong for the remainder of the day. Will keep
High Wind Warnings in place, and add a few zones into the Wind
Advisory. Blowing dust will be possible across portions of the
plains. The surface gradient will be quite strong behind a Pacific
cold front that is charging from west to east this morning. The front
has already advanced to approximately KAXX southward to KCQC.
Temperatures will be several degrees colder than yesterday, but
across the plains, temperatures will be tricky as cold air advection
battles with compressional warming.

A band of snow also developed this morning along the Pacific front,
likely dropping an inch or two across northern and western NM. Snow
is already waning this morning, and will continue to do so. Thus, the
WSW will likely expire on time.

Another weak trough will shift across northern NM early Sunday. The
high peaks of the northern mountains could get an inch or two of
snow, but more wind will be in store for the remainder of the area,
especially the east.

Warmer temperatures will return for Monday as the upper level flow
becomes southwesterly. On Tuesday, all eyes will be on a closed low
scooting southeastward along the Cali coast. Ahead of the low,
southwesterly winds will increase over NM, keeping temperatures near
or above normal for Tuesday. Tuesday night and into Wednesday, models
diverge on the progression of the upper low. The GFS weakens the low
into a trough and quickly slides the trough eastward across NM on
Wednesday. In this scenario, most of the precip would be across
western and northern NM and all areas would see strong winds.
However, the latest ECMWF keeps the low closed as it shifts eastward
over the southern NM border. This scenario would keep much of the
precip chances south of I-40 and bring less wind to all areas. This
is a large deviation from previous ECMWF runs, so not quite ready to
bite on it yet.

Much of Thursday and Friday should be quiet, then models are
suggesting another system will slide eastward north of NM, perhaps
bringing the Land of Enchantment more wind.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK...

An upper disturbance swinging over northern and central New Mexico
today will allow for strong winds over portions of the central and
east. Minimum humidities less than 15 percent will dominate the
Northeast and East Central Plains as well as portions of the
Northeast Highlands. Forecast Haines over mainly the East Central
Plains has increased to moderate to high for this afternoon, despite
below average high temperatures. LIS imagery indicates continued
very dry surface to near surface conditions. The East Central Plains
is most focused area for the wind, low humidities and dryness, as
well as the higher Haines, so went ahead with a red flag warning for
late this morning through this afternoon.

Tonight and Sunday morning will see more snow showers over the
northern mountains thanks to another fast moving disturbance.
Continued windy conditions will be focused along and south of
Interstate 40 on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be about 5 to 15 degrees
below average.

Dry and warmer Monday and Tuesday with breezy to windy conditions.
The stronger winds look to be on Tuesday, but minimum humidities
both days will range from about 7 to 12 percent over the Northeast
and East Central Plains. Above average high temperatures will be
combined with moderate to high Haines each day so that critical fire
weather conditions appear to be most likely over the Northeast
Plains on Monday and from the Central Highlands across the Northeast
Plains on Tuesday.

Another disturbance could bring additional precipitation to parts of
New Mexico around the middle of next week along with about 5 to 10
degrees of cooling. However, forecast models disagree whether the
north or locales south of Interstate 40 will be favored for
precipitation.

Vent rates will be good to excellent for the majority of the region
today through next Wednesday before decreasing somewhat next
Thursday in the wake of the mid week disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough will cross from the west tonight with a strong
SWLY jet stream aloft and a gusty Pacific cold front at the surface.
MVFR and IFR conditions and mountain obscurations are expected to
continue with a band of snow stretching NEWD across the W central
and NW mountains. This area will likely increase in size during the
late night hours, before diminishing around or shortly after sunrise.
An inch or two of snow accumulation will be possible, with locally
higher amounts in the mountains and along the CO border. The
strongest W and SW winds will be felt in and just E of the mountains
for the remainder of the night, especially the S central mountains
where SRR can expect gusts over 50 kt. NW winds will be strong E of
the CONTDVD on Saturday, and especially along and E of the central
mountain chain, as the upper level trough gradually exits the Rockies
onto the Great Plains. Before sunrise this morning, a broad area of
low clouds will be found along and E of NM`s eastern border and
across much of Union county. However, strengthening downslope flow
will scour this moisture eastward around and a little after sunrise.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  19  41  13 /   0  20  10   0
Dulce...........................  32   9  35   1 /  10  30  20   0
Cuba............................  30  11  32   9 /  10  40  20   0
Gallup..........................  36  13  39   7 /   5   5   5   0
El Morro........................  31   8  36   3 /  10   5   5   0
Grants..........................  38  11  40   6 /   5   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  36  15  39  15 /   5   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  22  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  30   5  32   0 /  10  50  30   0
Los Alamos......................  36  20  37  19 /   5  10   5   0
Pecos...........................  35  16  36  15 /   5   5   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  29  11  31  10 /  20  20  20   0
Red River.......................  23   6  25   9 /  30  30  20   0
Angel Fire......................  27   7  29   0 /  20  20  10   0
Taos............................  35  11  36   4 /  10  20  10   0
Mora............................  33  12  35  10 /   5  10   5   0
Espanola........................  41  20  42  16 /   0   5   5   0
Santa Fe........................  37  19  38  17 /   5   5   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  41  17  41  14 /   5   5   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  22  43  23 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  24  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  20  48  16 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  43  24  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  47  17  48  14 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  43  24  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  24  52  22 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  36  16  38  13 /  10   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  38  18  39  15 /   5   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  12  41   7 /   0   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  38  17  37  16 /   0   5   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  42  21  43  20 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  46  25  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  41  23  44  23 /   0   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  41  12  41  14 /   0   5   5   0
Raton...........................  43  13  45  10 /   0   5   5   0
Springer........................  43  15  45  12 /   0   5   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  40  16  40  14 /   0   5   5   0
Clayton.........................  48  17  47  19 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  45  17  44  16 /   0   5   5   0
Conchas.........................  53  23  54  20 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  50  20  50  20 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  56  22  56  20 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  52  22  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  53  22  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  52  20  53  20 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  60  22  60  21 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  52  27  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  49  26  51  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
for the following zones... NMZ108.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ529-532>538.

Freezing Fog Advisory until 6 AM MST early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ530.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ539-540.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ510.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ523-526.

&&

$$

34



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.