Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 281802
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL FUEL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. A
FEW STRAY AND WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT THESE
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION. STORMS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LOW
LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN POTENTIALLY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
INVADE NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...ACTING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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