Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 220544 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1144 PM MDT FRI OCT 21 2016

A strong ridge of high pressure will cause VFR conditions to
persist area-wide for the remainder of tonight and Saturday. The
ridge axis will begin to shift east of New Mexico Saturday,
allowing some mid and high level clouds over west and especially
southwest parts of the forecast area. In addition, a persistent
surface trough in the lee of the Sangre de Cristos will induce
another round of gusty winds across east central areas Saturday



A warming trend will continue into the weekend with plenty of
sunshine as high pressure dominates. Daytime temperatures will be
well above normal this weekend, especially across eastern New
Mexico where highs will approach record values at several locales.
Atmospheric moisture will be on the uptrend early next week with
increasing cloud cover and chances for precipitation, peaking
Monday night across western and northern New Mexico when a
disturbance will move into the state. A new drying and warming
trend will begin Wedesday of next week with temperatures going
back to well above normal for most areas through the end of the
work week.


Dry and warm will be the two words that characterize the forecast
for the foreseeable future, except for a brief moisture intrusion
Monday that will likely result in more clouds than rain for most
locales. In the meantime, warming temperatures through the
weekend will send highs above normal areawide with a few new
records possible across the eastern plains and northeast
highlands. Highs will approach record values here in the
Albuquerque Metro Sunday. We`re currently forecasting 79 for the
high at the ABQ Sunport and the daily record is 80 set back in

Moisture advection will begin Sunday, but won`t really ramp-up
until late Monday ahead of an approaching low amplitude trough.
Monday night, PWATs are forecast to increase up to well above the
90th percentile in terms of daily PWAT climatology. So, moisture
will be plentiful, but forcing will be limited with only the
western and northern higher terrain actually seeing a decent shot
at wetting precipitation (i.e. equal to or greater than 0.10").
The trough will pass through the southern Rockies early Tuesday
with ridging to follow.

A new drying and warming trend will begin Wednesday with a large
ridge of high pressure developing over the region, sending daytime
temperatures back to well above normal areawide by Thursday. West
coast troughing may translate into increasing moisture across New
Mexico by late next Friday and into next weekend given the 12z GFS
and ECMWF solutions, but time will tell.



Dome of high pressure will continue to slide east across southern
New Mexico tonight. A weak southwest flow aloft will develop over
the weekend, resulting in above average temperatures and mainly
light winds. The one exception will be across the eastern plains
where a weak lee trough will result in breezy southwest winds.

Weather prediction models continue to bring up a slug of subtropical
moisture from southwest AZ and into western NM late-day Monday and
Monday night. Forecast precipitable water values are rather high for
this time of year so anticipating localized heavy rainfall and
widely scattered wetting rains(<0.10")across the western third of
the state from late Monday night. A drier and slightly cooler
airmass moves in Tuesday.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the pattern repeats itself and a
transitory upper ridge builds back over the state. GFS and ECMWF are
in general agreement that this ridge will shift eastward late in the
week with the potential for an upper trough passage perhaps by next

Ventilation rates increase into the good to excellent range for most
of the region outside the Rio Grande Valley Saturday. Rates decrease
somewhat areawide Sunday but remain primarily in the good range. As
subtropical moisture increases on increasing southwest flow aloft
Monday, rates increase mainly into the good to excellent range.





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