Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 012232
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM AIR OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...LEADING TO RISING SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER IN THE PLAINS...COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
PECOS...WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST CROSSES NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...LEADING TO INCREASING SNOWFALL
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
MONDAY WILL BECOME GUSTY WESTERLY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY DRIER BUT
MUCH COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE WARMING TODAY AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD TO
THE WEST OF SOCAL. COLDER AIR HAS REMAINED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT
HAS MODIFIED TODAY...DESPITE THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR CAPULIN TO NEAR SANTA ROSA AND
FORT SUMNER. THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRAW THE
BOUNDARY WESTWARD AND INTO THE MIDDLE RGV AND SANTA FE METRO TONIGHT
WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WARM AS THEY MIGRATE
NORTHWARD...SO DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL BUT
THE SAN JUAN MTS...WHERE SNOW COULD CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ABOVE
8500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME
OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS
HOWEVER...INCLUDING THE SACRAMENTO MTS AND UPPER GILA.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MONDAY COULD REACH LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
LOCALIZED AREAS...WILL LEAVE CONSIDERATION OF ANY WIND ADVISORIES TO
SUCCEEDING SHIFTS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE JUST AS
STRONG...AND MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY/S 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...SO A BREAK FROM
SNOW GRIDS IS WELCOME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES ALOFT UPSTREAM
STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS OVER NM...NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DID SPIKE UP TO NEAR AVERAGE TODAY IN SOME CENTRAL TO
WEST CENTRAL ZONES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PREVAILED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER CA. DEWPOINTS ALSO ROSE
SUBSTANTIALLY...SO THIS HAS KEPT RH ELEVATED...OFFSETTING THE
TEMPERATURE RISES. IN THE EAST A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS HAS STUNTED
THE WARMING...AND THE EAST WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF AVERAGE AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BACKS IN FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING. THESE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL HOLD INTO MONDAY BEFORE READINGS DROP WELL
BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OBSERVE AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
WEST CENTRAL NM WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FLOW WILL BE BRISK INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE PACIFIC
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH NM...SHIFTING DIRECTION
WESTERLY WITH GUSTY SPEEDS DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENTILATION
RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EASTERN TIER OF NM MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE
MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO KEEP VENTILATION RATES FAIR TO HIGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED FOCUSED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NM TODAY...AND A BRIEF DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. STILL...SOME PERIODIC
SNOW WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NAMELY THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS
RANGE NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
NM LATE MONDAY AS PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES...SPREADING MORE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR LARGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...PUSHING MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO PARTS OF NEW
MEXICO. PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...AND PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KFMN...KGUP...KSKX...KAXX...AND OTHER NEARBY
LOCALES THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS
OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO THE IFR CATEGORY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO. A CANOPY OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUES
TO BLANKET MOST OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS ONLY BRIEFLY ERODING AWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO THE
EASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...REINFORCING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS WINDS MORE EASTERLY.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  35  54  29  43 /  60  70  70  50
DULCE...........................  29  48  25  39 /  70  80  90  80
CUBA............................  31  48  24  40 /  40  60 100  60
GALLUP..........................  35  54  24  43 /  60  50  70  30
EL MORRO........................  33  51  23  40 /  40  50  90  30
GRANTS..........................  32  55  25  44 /  30  40  90  20
QUEMADO.........................  34  53  28  43 /  30  40  80  20
GLENWOOD........................  42  61  32  57 /  20  60  70  20
CHAMA...........................  29  43  19  35 /  70  80 100  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  33  46  27  39 /  30  60  70  40
PECOS...........................  26  42  26  41 /  30  60  70  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  25  43  21  37 /  40  60  70  40
RED RIVER.......................  24  41  18  31 /  60  60  90  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  24  43  19  35 /  40  50  70  30
TAOS............................  28  48  24  39 /  30  50  70  30
MORA............................  25  42  25  41 /  30  50  70  10
ESPANOLA........................  30  51  26  46 /  20  50  60  20
SANTA FE........................  31  48  26  42 /  20  60  70  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  33  51  29  45 /  20  50  70  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  36  56  31  47 /  10  40  60  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  38  60  34  51 /  10  40  50  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  33  61  30  52 /  10  30  50  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  34  58  30  51 /  10  40  60  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  34  62  32  52 /  10  30  50  10
RIO RANCHO......................  36  58  33  50 /  10  40  60  20
SOCORRO.........................  39  65  36  58 /   5  20  40  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  32  49  28  43 /  20  40  70  20
TIJERAS.........................  34  53  30  46 /  10  40  60  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  26  50  29  46 /  10  40  60  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  27  49  27  45 /  20  30  50  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  32  52  32  48 /  10  30  60  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  37  59  37  54 /   5  20  60  20
RUIDOSO.........................  35  58  34  51 /  10  30  60  20
CAPULIN.........................  21  41  29  41 /  30  20  40  10
RATON...........................  24  43  26  43 /  30  30  40  20
SPRINGER........................  24  44  27  44 /  30  30  40  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  25  44  29  43 /  30  40  50  10
CLAYTON.........................  20  44  32  48 /  20  20  20  10
ROY.............................  21  43  31  46 /  20  20  40  10
CONCHAS.........................  26  48  33  51 /  20  30  20   5
SANTA ROSA......................  26  48  34  52 /  20  30  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  25  47  35  55 /  20  30  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  26  47  36  59 /  20  20  20   5
PORTALES........................  28  49  38  61 /  10  30  20   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  30  49  37  60 /  20  30  20   5
ROSWELL.........................  34  52  39  66 /  10  30  30   5
PICACHO.........................  33  53  40  58 /  10  30  30  10
ELK.............................  36  53  39  55 /  10  30  60  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ511>515.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510.

&&

$$










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.