Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 222340 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
440 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Sheets of thin, high
cirrus will track southward mainly over northern and east central
areas tonight into Thanksgiving Day.



.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017...
Dry and warm will be the rule through the Holiday weekend. A weak
cold front will bring some cooling to the eastern plains Saturday but
temperatures will remain above average for this time of year. Weather
prediction models agree that a mainly dry Pacific trough and
associated cold front will bring temperatures down to near average
Tuesday and Wednesday next week.


Arc of high clouds riding up and over the unseasonably strong
ridge/dome of high pressure just off the northern Baja coast quite
stark in nearly every satellite product this afternoon. This feature
will continue to keep NM high and dry through the Holiday weekend.
Near record or record high temperatures a good bet across much of
central and western NM Thanksgiving Day and across the eastern half
Friday. ABQ Sunport stands a good shot at seeing the warmest
Thanksgiving Day on record with a high forecast of 68F and an all-
time record at the Sunport of 67F. A weak upper level wave and
associated backdoor cold front will bring some cooling to the
eastern plains Saturday but high temperatures will still remain well
above average for late November.

GFS and ECMWF now in good agreement that an upper level Pacific
trough or closed low will move in Tuesday of next week. Both models
keep this system positively tilted and moisture starved but bring
through a decent cold front which is forecast to bring temperatures
down to near average Tuesday and Wednesday. ECMWF closes this feature
off over UT on Tuesday while the GFS is progressive and keeps it an
open wave. More importantly, this trough/low signifies a major
weather pattern change for the western U.S. next week. Both models
bring another rather weak upper trough through NM Friday with
a deep trough waiting in the wings over the PACNW for next weekend.



Despite some cooling from the backdoor cold front that moved through
yesterday, temperatures are warming back above normal almost
areawide. Vent rates are generally poor today and will continue
mostly poor tomorrow under the direct influence of a strong upper
high. The warming trend will continue through Friday and into the
weekend, with well above normal temperatures forecast allowing an
unusually warm stretch to extend even longer. Near record highs are
likely Thursday across much of western New Mexico, then across
eastern New Mexico on Friday thanks in part to a deepening lee side
trough and downslope winds. Ventilation will improve Friday due to
improved mixing, but there will still be a few pockets of poor rates
across the area. Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast
Friday afternoon across much of the East Central Plains/Highlands.
Vent rates will trend back down over the weekend and be poor to fair
as the upper high transitions east across the area.

Winds and vent rates will trend up significantly on Monday ahead of
a cold front, forecast to push through late day and overnight.
Cooler conditions are forecast Tuesday behind the front, with
another warm-up beginning as early as Wednesday. Vent rates will
trend back down behind the front and generally be poor. Chances for
wetting precipitation look to be slim-to-none behind the front as
the associated upper level trough passes through the Southern
Rockies and New Mexico, but model run-to-run consistency has been
poor and forecast confidence is low for Tue/Wed of next week.





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