Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 292125
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE AREA.
SOME CELLS MAY TURN SEVERE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 11 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAYS READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 500 MB WINDS IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE...EVEN ORDINARY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE CRITERIA WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILE MAY CAUSE STORMS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH BOWING
ECHOES. THE BIG CONCERN SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL TOO.

MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH FOR MID WEEK. THE GFS IS DRAGGING ITS
HEALS...BUT THE CANADIAN...ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE AGREEING ON
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
SYSTEM MAY SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE
A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF NEW MEXICO...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING...LARGE HAIL...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
OCCUR IN STRONGER STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT DECREASING STORM CHANCES THERE THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STORMS EXIT THE STATE.  LOOK FOR
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL.
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL FOLLOW IN THE AFTERNOON
AREA WIDE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASS SOUTHWARD
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE POOR
VENTILATION FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER...WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

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&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL BE AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN STARTING AROUND 20Z. LARGE HAIL...50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREATS FOR IMPACT AREAS. RELATIVELY BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE WITH TSRA ALONG WITH BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSCURATION. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT KGUP AS
AFTN DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES. ALSO ADDED GS FOR KLVS BETWEEN 20 AND
23Z. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THAT STATE BY 6Z LEADING TO POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST
PLAINS.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  39  71  42  72 /   0   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  31  68  32  68 /   5   0   5  10
CUBA............................  37  71  42  72 /   5   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  35  70  38  69 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  36  67  38  66 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  36  72  39  71 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  39  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  43  76  46  76 /   5   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  29  64  31  65 /  10   0   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  70  44  70 /  10   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  41  66  43  67 /  30   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  68  36  68 /  30   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................  30  58  32  58 /  40   0   0  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  26  64  26  66 /  40   0   0  10
TAOS............................  34  66  35  67 /  20   0   0   5
MORA............................  37  67  38  67 /  30   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  42  74  44  74 /  20   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  43  68  44  69 /  20   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  42  72  43  74 /  10   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  75  52  75 /  10   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  75  53  77 /  10   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  77  50  78 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  48  78  50  79 /   5   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  46  77  46  79 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  47  79  49  80 /   5   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  52  81  50  82 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  74  47  77 /  20   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  45  76  47  78 /  20   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  73  41  73 /  30   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  44  69  44  71 /  30   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  48  72  47  72 /  20   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  54  75  51  75 /  20   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  51  71  46  71 /  40   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  44  69  42  69 /  40   0   0  10
RATON...........................  41  73  41  71 /  40   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  41  74  39  73 /  40   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  39  71  40  71 /  30   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  53  75  48  75 /  70   0   0   5
ROY.............................  47  73  43  74 /  50   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  55  80  48  80 /  50   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  54  78  48  78 /  50   5   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  57  83  50  82 /  70   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  55  81  52  82 /  40   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  57  82  54  83 /  40   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  56  81  51  81 /  60   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  59  86  54  85 /  20   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  54  79  50  78 /  30   5   5   5
ELK.............................  53  74  48  74 /  30   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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