Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 232047
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
247 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The backdoor cold front is keeping temperatures on the cool-side
across central and eastern New Mexico, but a new warming trend will
begin Wednesday as dry westerlies overtake the entire state. By
Thursday, daytime temperatures will be above normal areawide. Roswell
is forecast to hit 100 degrees for the first time this year on
Thursday afternoon. Windy conditions will develop Thursday and
continue into at least Friday. A backdoor cold front will bring
chances for showers and storms to much of northeast New Mexico late
Saturday and Sunday. Moisture is forecast to spread west across the
state early next week and result in increasing chances for showers
and storms and cooler daytime temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor cold front is resulting in much cooler temperatures
today across central and especially eastern New Mexico, where highs
are 15-20 degrees below normal. Any showers or storms that develop
over the Northern Mountains late this afternoon will likely diminish
rapidly as they move off to the southeast into a relatively stable
airmass.

A ridge of high pressure is still forecast to push over the state
late Wednesday, kicking-off an new warming trend that will send
highs above normal areawide by Thursday. We`re forecasting a high of
101 at Roswell Thursday, which would be the first 100 degree day of
the calendar year there. We`re sticking with a high of 89 degrees at
the Albuquerque Sunport, but one more degree would make it the first
90 degree day of the calendar year and one day prior to the average
1st 90 degree day. Windy conditions are forecast to develop Thursday
afternoon with the westerlies on the uptrend behind the departing
ridge axis. Unusually high mixing heights and a 988mb surface low
over southeast Colorado may bring slightly stronger winds/gusts than
what we`re currently forecasting and a wind advisory may become
necessary. In addition, critical fire weather conditions are forecast
Thursday (see Fire Weather Discussion below for details). Look for
more of the same Friday, although with slightly lower wind speeds and
1-3 degrees of cooling.

A trough will move through the central and southern Rockies Saturday
and eject out into the plains, pushing a backdoor cold front into
northeast New Mexico and possibly initiating a few storms. Elsewhere
across the area on Saturday, breezy and warm conditions will
continue. Look for more of the same Sunday, although with relaxing
winds as a high amplitude ridge of high pressure builds over the west
coast states.

Beginning Memorial Day and continuing into mid week, moisture is
forecast to spread west across the state and result in increasing
chances for showers and storms as a Rex Block attempts to establish
over the Intermountain West, with the upper low over southern
California or the northern Baja Peninsula. There are some differences
between the 12Z GFS and ECMWF on exactly how/where this pattern will
setup, but the GFS is notably wetter and our forecast is generally a
blend of the two solutions for now. With jet dynamics far removed
from New Mexico early to mid week, the severe threat would be low.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Northerly flow behind a backdoor front has kept conditions cool
across the eastern plains today. This front has also pushed in a
layer of low level moisture into the Rio Grande Valley which should
mix out as NW winds mix to the sfc this afternoon. There has been
difficulty forecasting depth and strength of the sfc bdry pushing
back west overnight tonight, returning east gap winds into the
central valley locations...have went with a moderately weak push
that should keep RH recoveries decent tonight into Wednesday
morning.

Wednesday sees the start of a warming trend as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the SW. Vent rates improve from poor/fair in
the central valley to excellent as daytime highs climb 10F over the
west and 20F over the eastern plains. Drier and warmer weather
support elevated fire weather conditions across the west and south
Wednesday but not enough to warrant a warning. Daytime highs climb
even further Thursday 10-15F above average across the east with
Haines 6 across most of the state and Mix Hgts abnormally high near
or above 500mb over central NM. This forecast continues to support
the Fire Weather Watch currently out across western and central NM
to the TX border Thursday afternoon. NASA SPoRT imagery continues to
show decent soil moisture across the NE plains and northern
mtns...have decided to continue to leave out those zones from the
watch at this time. Elevated to critical fire conditions continue
Friday with daytime highs dropping a few degrees as a upper trough
passes to N of the region eroding the northern periphery of the
ridge to our south. Westerly winds pick up again Friday afternoon
albeit not as strong as Thursday.

The tail end of a backdoor front seeps into the far NE Friday before
being pushed back N during the day. The aforementioned upper trough
will slide east over the Great Plains region pushing another
backdoor front across the eastern plains Saturday night into Sunday
morning dropping temperatures. The GFS depicts yet another backdoor
front Monday morning with the ECM Tuesday morning. Both fronts push
increased sfc moisture to the continental divide for the 1st half of
next week, increasing the chances for afternoon shower/storm
activity.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
East canyon winds are dying down now through the central valley. The
backdoor frontal passage will continue south over the eastern plains
this afternoon, with shower activity not expected at KROW. Skies
clear through the afternoon with strong NW flow mixing to the sfc
over the west, including KFMN, KGUP, KAEG, and KABQ. Questions remain
on where the sfc moisture bdry sets up tonight for KSAF with an
associated easterly wind shift. VFR conditions Wednesday across the
forecast area.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  86  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  35  78  42  78 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  38  80  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  35  84  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  34  81  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  36  85  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  84  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  44  93  45  92 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  34  72  38  73 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  47  77  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  38  78  48  80 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  35  76  44  77 /   5   0   0   0
Red River.......................  29  72  34  73 /   5   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  29  71  34  72 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  33  79  42  80 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  37  76  49  77 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  44  84  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  45  80  53  82 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  41  84  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  91  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  47  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  51  89  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  51  92  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  43  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  84  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  80  50  81 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  44  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  85  59  89 /   0   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  45  79  55  82 /   0   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  36  76  49  79 /   5   0   0   0
Raton...........................  34  81  46  84 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  36  82  47  85 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  79  49  82 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  41  80  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  39  79  53  84 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  43  87  58  92 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  42  86  57  91 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  45  89  57  96 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  44  84  55  93 /   0   5   0   0
Portales........................  45  85  57  94 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  48  86  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  49  91  58 101 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  86  59  92 /   0   5   0   0
Elk.............................  46  83  57  90 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ101-105>109.

&&

$$

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