Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 202040
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
240 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING EAST OF NEW MEXICO BUT LEAVING INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE BEHIND ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING MONDAY ESPECIALLY
FROM THE SANGRES EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS DESPITE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
TUESDAY AS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING DRYING
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WEAKER ZONAL FLOW FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SCHEDULED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF STORM SYSTEM NOW EAST OF NEW MEXICO BUT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MAYBE EVEN TUESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESH BATCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS FAVORING THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NM MONDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASED WINDS AND DRIER AIR. THIS MEANS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A DRY ZONAL FLOW WITH LESS WIND
OVERALL. THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM COULD IMPACT THE STATE NEXT
WEEKEND PRODUCING SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR GREATER DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...ON WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE EAST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM NEXT
SUNDAY ONWARD. BAGGY TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE MOVES OVER
NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY. WITH PACIFIC TROUGH
CROSSING THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND DIGGING TO THE FOUR CORNERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY...SPEEDY SHEARING FLOW UNDER THE TROUGH BASE WILL
ROTATE ASPECT INTO THE NEGATIVE ACROSS MIDWEEK AND BACK JET FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGE BUILDING FROM ARIZONA
TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NEXT WEEKEND BEGINS WITH
AMPLIFYING PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY...SHEARING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION
REMAINS A RAPID SHEAR EASTWARD...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS CLINGS TO A
CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO SUNDAY DELAYING ITS EJECTION EASTWARD
UNTIL MONDAY. AS BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE SYSTEM THROUGH AND PAST BY
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
WILL TILT EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING TOWARD THE MORE SHEARED AND
PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION...AS GFS HAS HAD A REPETITIVE
ISSUE DEEPENING CLOSED LOWS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THAT HAVE NOT
VERIFIED WELL OF LATE.

OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE REGIME TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT...WITH
FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT AND LAST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST. STORMS SOUTH AND
WEST WILL CALM DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SKIES CLEAR.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO IN WAKE OF TROUGH
DEPARTING TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE APRIL NORMAL...AS UP SLOPE WINDS FOCUS SHOWER COVERAGE ON THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND
OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL COLLAPSE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET TO END BY TUESDAY
MORNING. GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION...BEST IN THE EAST...AS MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES RUN IN THE MID 20S PCT...AND A LITTLE DRIER IN THE WEST.
GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE EAST.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH FLOW ALOFT
BACKING TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF INBOUND PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH
COUNTRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WEST
AND CENTRAL WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING AND INTENSITY INCREASING INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S PCT...AS WINDS BECOME BREEZY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. GUSTS NEAR
THE ARIZONA LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL EXPAND TO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HAINES INDICES RISE TO 5 FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT WITH NO VENTILATION ISSUES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...CALIFORNIA TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM WESTERN
KANSAS TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TO BRING WESTERN TEMPERATURES TO
NORMAL...AS EASTERN TEMPERATURES RISE TO 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
APRIL NORMALS. A DRY DAY AS WETTING RAINS MOVE EAST...LEAVING
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS FOR THE
DAY...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERSPREAD THE STATE. WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...WITH HAINES INDICES WELL INTO THE 5
AND 6 RANGE FOR THE DAY. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH NO VENTILATION ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DRY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK
WITH SOME SPOTTY NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY WILL BACK
TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP BREEZY AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS...AND RED FLAGS WITH ELEVATED HAINES INDICES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN
CIRCULATION ABOUT TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ON THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO BY
06Z THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND CIGS OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL LIFT TO AOA BKN/OVC080 BY 00Z THIS
EVENING...WITH EXCURSIONS TO BKN/OVC050CB IN NORTHERN MT AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THROUGH 02Z SUNSET. CIGS
AOA BKN/OVC080 OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FROM 17Z
ONWARD MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  43  78  46  81 /   5   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  32  66  33  69 /  10  10   5  20
CUBA............................  36  69  37  71 /  10  10   5  10
GALLUP..........................  36  76  39  77 /   5   0   5   5
EL MORRO........................  36  71  34  71 /  10  10   5  10
GRANTS..........................  38  74  38  75 /   5   5   5  10
QUEMADO.........................  40  72  41  74 /  10   5   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  46  80  41  83 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  30  62  31  66 /  20  20  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  65  46  68 /  20  20   5  10
PECOS...........................  43  68  42  69 /  20  20  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  68  35  71 /  20  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  28  53  27  56 /  40  40  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  26  60  26  63 /  40  40  20  20
TAOS............................  35  69  38  72 /  20  20  10  10
MORA............................  38  64  40  68 /  30  60  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  41  75  43  79 /  10  10   5   5
SANTA FE........................  42  71  45  73 /  10  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  75  46  77 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  76  52  80 /   5   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  78  54  81 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  80  47  83 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  80  49  83 /   5   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  48  80  46  84 /   5   5   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  51  79  52  82 /   5   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  51  81  52  84 /   5   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  43  72  45  73 /  10  10   5  10
TIJERAS.........................  46  74  48  78 /   5  10   5  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  41  76  40  80 /  10  10   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  43  69  44  72 /  10  20   5  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  72  47  75 /  10  10   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  77  47  80 /   5   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  41  68  40  71 /   5  20   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  41  67  42  75 /  30  40  20  10
RATON...........................  40  70  41  77 /  20  30  10  20
SPRINGER........................  41  70  43  77 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  41  68  43  72 /  20  60  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  48  73  48  80 /  20  20   5   5
ROY.............................  46  72  46  77 /  20  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  49  77  52  83 /  20  10   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  48  77  50  81 /  10  10   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  50  80  53  85 /  20  10   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  49  78  50  82 /  10  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  50  78  52  82 /  10  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  79  53  83 /  10  10   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  53  83  54  85 /  10   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  50  77  51  79 /   5  10   5   5
ELK.............................  47  70  48  75 /   5  20   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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