Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 252345 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
BROAD PUSH OF MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ
AND INTO NEW MEXICO WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...MT OBSCURATION IN THE WEST...AND
THEN THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
STARTING EARLY TUE MORNING. WILL EXPECT A 12Z START FOR CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE ARIZONA LINE TUE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN
THE WEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH 00Z TUE
AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH VCTS PLACEHOLDER FOR GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LEADING...FOLLOWING...AND/OR
LOWER PROBABILITY FLAGGED WITH VCSH PLACEHOLDER. SCT CLOUD GROUPS
AT MVFR CIG LEVELS SHOW LOWER BOUND OF CIGS WITH STORMS ABOUT.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ENTERING NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WITH READINGS FALLING SHORT OF AVERAGE IN ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF NEW MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...DRAGGING
DRIER AIR INTO NEW MEXICO...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE IN NUMBER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
WILL THEN FAVOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
THE NATION...AND TEMPERATURES OVER NEW MEXICO WILL STEADILY CLIMB
BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON...AN ARTIFACT OF THE EROSION OF THIS
WEEKEND`S DRY SLOT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OVER THE GREATER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND HURRICANE MARIE DOING HER THING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AN UNSEASONAL COLD CORE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HAS JUST RECENTLY CLOSED INTO A
LOW. WITH NEW MEXICO BETWEEN ALL OF THESE FEATURES...THE STAGE HAS
BEEN SET FOR A ROBUST MOISTURE INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECTING
A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO A FOCUSED BATCH OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHEN A NESTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND
SOUTHWESTERN NM AMIDST THE DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. HAVE OPTED
NOT TO DO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AND AFTER COORDINATION
WITH EPZ...CONSENSUS IS THAT THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE IN AZ. A
WATCH COULD POTENTIALLY BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
IF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

PWATS WILL SHOOT UP ABOVE AN INCH OVER MOST OF NM TUESDAY WITH
MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 TO 1.4 INCHES.
THIS WOULD CERTAINLY WORK IN FAVOR OF A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...BUT STORM MOTIONS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY BRISK OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE AT A 15 TO 25 MPH PACE...PERHAPS TOO FAST TO PRODUCE THE
VERY PROBLEMATIC SLOW-MOVING FLASH FLOOD PRODUCERS.
HOWEVER...TRAINING CELLS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN...SO THIS WILL NEED
TO BE EVALUATED CONTINUOUSLY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME HAS NOT BEEN
THAT HIGH THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO FORECAST MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
THERE IS STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY...BUT IT APPEARS TO NOW JUST BE
RELEGATED TO ONE MODEL...THE ECMWF WHICH IS AN OUTLIER. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW ON A MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. THE GFS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND FAST OUTLIER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT THIS TREND HAS BEGUN
TO FADE. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST HAS STEERED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF
THE NAM/WRF/GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO BEGIN
ENTERING NM FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW INCHES INTO WESTERN CO. THE
ECMWF DID SEEM TO OUTPERFORM OTHERS LAST WEEK WITH A PERTURBATION
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...SO THIS ALSO MUDDLES THE FORECAST
SOME FOR WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT ANY RATE...IT DOES APPEAR THE TREND WOULD BE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO QUICKLY REDUCE IN NUMBER...IF NOT BY
WEDNESDAY...CERTAINLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT
WOULD LIKELY ENTER THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE SLOW TO CREEP BACK TOWARD AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND BY THE WEEKEND A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON SOUTHWEST NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. UPSWING IN
CONVECTION/WETTING STORMS REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING DRIER THEREAFTER. A LITTLE BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH DRYING MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND IN TERMS OF
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD INCREASE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST.
THEN DRIER AND WARMER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER PACIFIC TROUGH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
TREND UP AND WETTING RAIN COVERAGE WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE. LOOKING
AT AN OVERNIGHT WETTING RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS.

DESPITE THE LINGERING RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE PRIMED WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THIS IS AIDED BY THE PACIFIC
TROUGH DRAWING CLOSER TO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC LOW WASHES OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS DRIER AIR ALOFT EVENTUALLY TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. BASED
ON THE PATTERN...THIS DRIER EVOLUTION SHOULD BE GRADUAL AT THE
SURFACE. EITHER WAY...THE BEST WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST BASED ON ALL OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS.
THE OVERALL WIND FLOW SHOULD INCREASE DUE TO THE TROUGH LOCATION AND
CELLS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE DRIER AIR PUSH...RESULTING IN LOWER RH AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
OCCUR ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ACROSS THE
EAST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
AND A SLIGHT RISE IN HUMIDITY...FAVORING THE NORTHEAST. A BREEZIER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE FOUND BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO ALBUQUERQUE.
PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE PATTERN.

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND DURING THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE LATEST LONGER
RANGE MODELS. A BROAD WESTERLY AND DRIER FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA. PRETTY DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE. SIMILAR TO WHAT THE AREA EXPERIENCED THIS
PAST WEEKEND. WE MUST BE CAUGHT IN THAT TYPE OF HEMISPHERIC WAVE
PATTERN FOR THE TIME.

POCKETS OF POOR MAX VENTILATION SHOW UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST AREAS TUESDAY AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
MTNS THURSDAY. VENTILATION SHOULD LOWER AREA WIDE FRIDAY DUE TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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