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000
FXUS65 KABQ 122051
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MINOR TO SIGNIFICANT INCREASES AND DECREASES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RELOCATE TO THE GREAT
BASIN...PUTTING NEW MEXICO UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEVERAL FRONTS TO IMPACT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS...INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONE FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...ANOTHER POSSIBLY MONDAY AND YET ANOTHER STRONGER ONE
AROUND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WHILE LOWS WILL LINGER ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXISTING FORECAST. DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN EDGE OF EASTERLY WAVE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO
BE SLOWLY ERODING AWAY AS UPPER HIGH CENTER EVOLVES OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
TRUCK SOUTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
AND SO FAR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO IGNITE TODAY...AND
EXISTING STORMS FEWER IN NUMBER THAN THIS TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SUSPECT THINGS WILL GAIN MOMENTUM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER OLD MEXICO
POTENTIALLY MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT BASIN SOUTHEAST OVER NEW
MEXICO...PUTTING MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE
UNDER NORTHWEST OR EVEN A BIT OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
LATER MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FRONT MAY
BE SYNCED UP WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THURSDAY MAY BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...MAINLY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

THERE LOOKS TO BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF EAST CANYON WINDS INTO THE RGV
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS/NIGHTS WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION BUT WILL
NO DOUBT BE AT LEAST PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ITSELF. SO
POSSIBLY MORE SHORT TERM IMPACTS THAN CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID JULY...ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE FOR
THE MOST PART ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY NEXT THURSDAY...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER NEW MEXICO. NOT EXACTLY A
MONSOON PATTERN...AND SOME DRIER AIR MAY MINIMIZE CONVECTION FOR A
DAY OR TWO. THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDS WITH A VENGEANCE BY NEXT WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OVERALL LESS ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS. STILL
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
SPOTTIER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
QUIET EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE A
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS.

AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...AND IT WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN...ALLOWING DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO CLIP
NORTHEAST NM...AND PERIODICALLY SEND DOWN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTS.  EACH COLD FRONT WILL REPLENISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT
LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...IF NOT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM AS
WELL. STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND THUS THERE WILL BE
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL DAILY...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN LOCALES.

THE FIRST SUCH BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...AND WILL MAKE A PUSH DOWN TO ROUGHLY THE I-40
CORRIDOR...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST QUITE A BIT
OVER RECENT DAYS. WHETHER THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THRU THE GAPS...OR
FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO GET PUSHED THRU THE GAPS
TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MORE
ACTIVE THAN TODAY.

ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO COME DOWN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD WEAKLY PUSH THRU THE GAPS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ON MONDAY...GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ASIDE
FROM NORMAL HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE
AREAWIDE AFTER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT.

THE GFS IS DEPICTING THAT THE STRONGEST FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS THURSDAY AS WELL.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SCRUNCHES THE UPPER HIGH
SOUTHWARD INTO ARIZONA ALLOWING FOR SOME NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
ENTRAIN SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS CONTINUES
AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NM OVER NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW STARTING AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER HAINES MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE DRIER CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE WILL RECYCLE.

NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES. HOWEVER...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OVERNIGHT CLOUD
COVER. THOUGH WITH ALL THE MOISTURE...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE NE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH GENERALLY GOOD TO VERY
GOOD VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. THOUGH VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE NORTH ON MONDAY....POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL RETURN FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS NEAR KCVN...BUT
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE THRU THE EARLY AFTN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VIS SATELLITE SHOWING CU STARTING TO BUBBLE ACROSS MOST
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THOUGH ISOLD/SCT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
MOST OF THE MTS...THE MOST PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM...GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. WITH STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR SW TODAY...KGUP
AND KFMN ARE FAVORED FOR IMPACT BY TS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
ABQ/AEG/SAF...BUT KEPT VCTS MENTION. A BOUNDARY NEAR THE CO/NM
BORDER ACROSS THE NE WILL ALSO BE A FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION
TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED AND PUSHED SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT
AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT
TO KLVS. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE EC/SE PLAINS AGAIN
TONIGHT.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  92  64  94 /  30  30  30  20
DULCE...........................  53  84  53  88 /  40  50  40  30
CUBA............................  56  81  56  85 /  60  50  50  30
GALLUP..........................  59  86  59  87 /  30  40  40  30
EL MORRO........................  54  81  53  83 /  50  40  40  40
GRANTS..........................  54  84  56  85 /  40  30  40  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  82  57  82 /  40  40  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  89  59  89 /  40  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  47  79  47  80 /  50  60  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  82  59  82 /  50  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  55  76  55  78 /  40  40  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  75  51  80 /  60  50  50  40
RED RIVER.......................  45  75  45  72 /  60  70  60  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  75  45  74 /  70  60  60  60
TAOS............................  54  80  52  83 /  50  40  40  40
MORA............................  52  73  51  78 /  50  50  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  56  86  56  88 /  50  30  30  30
SANTA FE........................  57  82  57  83 /  40  40  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  85  59  87 /  40  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  86  64  87 /  30  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  89  67  89 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  90  62  90 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  90  64  90 /  30  20  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  91  64  91 /  30  20  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  66  90  66  89 /  40  20  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  67  93  67  93 /  20  20  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  83  59  84 /  40  30  40  30
TIJERAS.........................  62  84  62  85 /  40  30  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  82  56  84 /  30  30  40  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  81  59  83 /  20  20  30  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  84  60  84 /  20  20  30  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  86  63  86 /  20  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  54  81  54  80 /  20  30  40  50
CAPULIN.........................  57  74  54  80 /  60  60  60  50
RATON...........................  59  80  57  84 /  50  50  50  50
SPRINGER........................  58  79  56  84 /  30  50  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  79  55  81 /  30  30  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  65  86  64  86 /  30  50  50  50
ROY.............................  64  83  63  85 /  30  50  50  50
CONCHAS.........................  65  86  64  87 /  10  30  50  50
SANTA ROSA......................  66  87  65  89 /  10  20  30  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  90  66  92 /  10  20  40  50
CLOVIS..........................  63  88  63  91 /   5  10  20  30
PORTALES........................  64  90  64  93 /   5   5  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  91  65  94 /   5  10  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  67  96 /  20   5  20  10
PICACHO.........................  62  85  62  85 /  20  10  20  10
ELK.............................  59  80  59  82 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$