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000
FXUS65 KABQ 301609 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
909 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED THE GALLUP ZONE TO A SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SINCE SNOW HAS BEEN ACCUMULATING ON GRASSY SURFACES AND ROAD
CONDITIONS ARE MIXED. THAT RUNS THROUGH NOON. STILL EXPECTING MORE OF
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY RAIN MOST OF THE GALLUP ZONE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WARM/MOIST TONGUE INTENSIFIES. ALSO DOWNGRADED TULAROSA
ZONE TO AN ADVISORY SINCE A WARMER ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SNOW
TOTALS/IMPACTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND RAISED TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. JUST MINOR
CHANGES. WILL PUBLISH THE GRID AND UPDATED NUMBERS WILL BE ONLINE
SOON.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
RAIN AND SNOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TONIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AND LOCALLY LIFR. TOUGH FORECAST WITH SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO
IN QUESTION. SNOW LIKELY TO CHANGE TO RAIN AT FMN...GUP AND ABQ
TODAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TONIGHT. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN ROW THIS MORNING LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY ALL SNOW AT REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...344 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM USHERS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 7500 FEET...WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AREAS
ABOVE 9000 FEET MAY SEE MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...
LOWER ELEVATIONS LOCALES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND SNOW HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS LATE LAST EVENING WERE SHOWING
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS FROM ABQ TO SAF AND EAST TOWARD CQC. NOW THAT
PRECIP HAS STARTED...THESE LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
SUB-FREEZING WET-BULB TEMP FOR MOST AREAS...RESULTING IN SNOW. SNOW
HAS EVEN BEEN REPORTED IN THE ABQ AREA WHERE THE TEMP IS STILL 36
DEGREES. THIS THIN WARM LAYER WILL BE THE WRINKLE IN THE OINTMENT
FOR MANY LOW ELEVATIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE A RAIN-SNOW MIX...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV...NW AND WC PLATEAU.  SNOW THAT DOES
FALL IN THESE AREAS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING GIVEN TEMPS
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...AND
THEREFORE WARMER GROUND TEMPS. FOR EASTERN AREAS...LOCALES ALONG THE
CAPROCK MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT
GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALSO INDICATE A CHANCE FOR
SOME SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIXED IN ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT NOT
LOOKING FOR THIS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. OTHER HIGHLIGHTS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS AROUND GRANTS FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING AS IT HAS BEEN SNOWING STEADILY THERE ALL
NIGHT. ALSO AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...SNOW IN THE ABQ AREA WILL
VARY GREATLY...WITH MORE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...WEST MESA AND RIO
RANCHO.

WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...HAVE ELECTED TO BUMP UP
LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. HAVE DONE THE SAME FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN WET GROUND CONDITIONS THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL
HAVE ENDED. SOME LOW TEMP GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM ODDLY LOW GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG AT
SOME POINT...IF NOT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER SOCAL. THOUGH IT WILL SHIFT SOMEWHAT
EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY. INTERESTINGLY...MOST MODELS NOW SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY
EJECTING FROM THE LOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN NM OR
SOUTHERN COLORADO...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. IF THIS IS A REAL
FEATURE...THIS VORT MAX SHOULD BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR PRECIP
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHOULD QUICKLY KICK THIS FEATURE AWAY
EARLY SUNDAY...AND THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRAY PRECIP AROUND...IT
WILL HAVE LARGELY ENDED. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH MAY SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS AND INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  FAVORED AREAS FOR CONTINUED PRECIP WILL BE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.

MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON TAP NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY TREND UPWARD...THOUGH THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ASIDE
FROM WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION TODAY AND SATURDAY.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COLDER TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN SLIGHT WARMING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN CA CONTINUES
TO EDGE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHED
WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN TODAY
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A RAIN OR SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LONG
DURATION EVENT WILL PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND
AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER PLAINS OF
EASTERN NM. VARIOUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR OVER VIRTUALLY ALL THE AREA TODAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW FRIDAYS HIGHS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH 60S AND 70S
TODAY AND 70S TO 90S SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RH RECOVERIES OF NEAR 100
PERCENT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AND MOSTLY END BY SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOME TO FAIR TO GOOD ACROSS THE
EAST.

NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN DRY AND MILDER THEN ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
MAINLY FOR THE EAST. A LITTLE SNOW MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE NEXT WEEK UNTIL LOWERING
SOME ON THURSDAY.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>515-517-521>524-526-529-533-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-507-516-518-519-525-527-528-530>532-540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505.

&&

$$

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