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000
FXUS65 KABQ 051735
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1035 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ALL AREAS BY 21Z. MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD FORMATION LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NE/EC PLAINS. INDICATED THAT POSSIBILITY IN
THE TCC TERMINAL FORECAST ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ISNT THE GREATEST.
ENHANCED DRAINAGE WIND EXPECTED AT SAF LATE TONIGHT OR FRI
MORNING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LINGER IN THE EAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE A COLDER AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER THE LAST 7 DAYS...NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. STILL MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION EARLY
THIS MORNING.

A COLD START THIS MORNING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...REACHING NEAR AVERAGE OR ABOVE BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER TO DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART.
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE WHAT APPEARS TO BE NUISANCE VIRGA/SHOWERS WHICH
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN NM THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE WETTER. THE PEAKS
OF THE NRN MTS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A DISTURBANCE. A PATTERN CHANGE TO ZONAL
FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF/ OR LATE NEXT WEEK MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE NOW AT THE FRONT END OF A 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD OF VERY LOW TO NO
CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE STORM TRACK LIFTS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS ONE UNLIKELY CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO THOUGH
AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKES SHAPE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST FCST
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL
TAKE ITS EASTWARD TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE STATE AND KEEP IT
WEAK ENOUGH THAT NOT MUCH MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP INTO IT...THUS
UNABLE TO CREATE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND THE LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE GILA.
STILL...HOW THE LATER FCST MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 15 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST THIRD AND 5 TO 15 BELOW FARTHER WEST.
VENT RATES WILL BE POOR MOST AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH
THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO GOOD VALUES ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL
NM. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO GOOD VALUES ARE EXPECTED EAST
SUNDAY...LESS SO WEST. EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATE
COVERAGE IS IN THE FCST FOR EAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA MON AND THEN SOME VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATES BEGIN TO SHOW UP
ACROSS THE EAST TUE. MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL.
GOOD TO EXCELLENT NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES SHOULD BE THE RULE AREAWIDE
ALSO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FINALLY REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. A MORE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY WETTER PATTERN COULD
EMERGE SOMETIME DURING THE LATTER THIRD OF NEXT WEEK.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$