Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 022133
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING OVER NEW MEXICO...AND
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD DEEPEN INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY...SLOWLY SPREADING
FARTHER EAST INTO MORE CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY.
INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COULD DECREASE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO AND THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST...EVIDENCED BY INCREASED MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SATELLITE SIGNATURES ON THE WATER VAPOR
CHANNEL. A FEW NORTHBOUND PERTURBATIONS CAN ALSO BE
DISTINGUISHED...ONE OVER EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM...ANOTHER ONE OVER
SOUTHERN SONORA MEXICO...AND FINALLY THE PRIMARY TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE BEING DEPRESSION 14-E. THE FORMER PERTURBATION IS
HELPING SPAWN SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS IN WESTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THIS EVENING. POPS WERE ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF ZONES
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH SOME REDUCTION PERFORMED TO
POPS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING THE ABQ METRO AREA.
STILL...SOME SCATTERED STORMS WILL SUSTAIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ZONES...JUST NOT AS NUMEROUS AS FARTHER WEST. ACTIVITY IN THE WEST
MAY EASILY SUSTAIN ITSELF BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND DENSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH OVERALL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY CLIMB UP. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
ALREADY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN MOST OF NM...AND THESE
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE MINIMAL GAINS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. YET
WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY...THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE A LATE
BLOOMER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. THE SECOND PERTURBATION
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH AS IT PROPAGATES INTO WESTERN NM THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE PRECIPITATION
TAKES ON MORE CONVECTIVE PHASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT SOME INCREASED FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
WORKING INTO WESTERN NM THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF NEARLY 45 KT AT
300 MB AND MEAN WINDS OF 15-25 KT IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. THIS
WILL STEER STORMS AT A FAIRLY BRISK PACE...BUT TRAINING CELLS WILL
BE A CONCERN...AND PERHAPS THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG CELLS DUE
TO HIGHER SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER GAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST SIGNIFICANT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CONVEYOR BELT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT THE EXHAUST FROM DEPRESSION
14-E...POSSIBLY NAMED KEVIN BEFORE THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE SIDED
MORE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AS ITS HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE GAINS
SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE FOR FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT
MORE...AND CONSEQUENTLY SPEED SHEAR WILL TOO. THESE ELEMENTS COULD
ENHANCE STORMS SHOULD IT BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH. THIS WILL BE THE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT AS A DENSE CANOPY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL START THE DAY FRIDAY OVER MOST CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATED PROFILES FOLLOWING CLOSE TO
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF 14-E/KEVIN
WILL LIKELY BE ILL-FORMED AND STILL OVER OLD MEXICO BY FRIDAY...BUT
PRECEDING PERTURBATIONS ARE DEPICTED BY THE GFS. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THESE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS...BUT SHOULD ONE STAY INTACT AND STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO NM...THE CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY FIRE RAPIDLY WITH HEFTY AND
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND PERHAPS SEVERE WINDS/HAIL.

INTO SATURDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INLAND AND AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL ADD MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM...INTRODUCING A HINT OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DRYING. THIS WOULD LIKELY INITIATE A BIT OF A
DECREASING TREND TO SHOWERS/STORMS...AND THIS DOWNWARD TREND WOULD
BE MORE PRONOUNCED INTO SUNDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND BEYOND. ONE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO FLIRT WITH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH WILL COME WEDNESDAY ACCORDING
TO THE GFS. EUROPEAN MODEL HAS SOME OUTLYING TENDENCIES WITH QPF
AND FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS...AND HAS BEEN EXHIBITING POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AS EVIDENCED BY THE MORE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WEST AS A RESULT THE RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
THE MOISTURE SURGE.

A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND EJECTS NORTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER WESTERN NM EACH DAY. THE HEALTH OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL STEADILY INCREASE THRU FRIDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A
TROPICAL FEATURE IS DRAWN NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH WIDER SWATHS OF WETTING
RAINS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH INCREASED FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL...THOUGH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING MAY LIMIT
RAINFALL RATES AND TEMPER THAT THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN
EACH DAY AND BECOME NEAR TO WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION RATES COULD DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VENTILATION RATES WILL REMAIN
GOOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...BUT WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
WILL BEGIN DRAGGING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY...THE
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. VENTILATION RATES
WILL DROP SUNDAY AS WELL...BECOMING GOOD TO FAIR FOR MOST PLACES
WITH SOME POOR POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK DUE TO MODELS
PAINTING TWO VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE STATE WHILE
SUPPRESSING THE MOISTURE PLUME PUSH TO THE SOUTH. LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK UNDER THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS...WHICH THIS FORECAST MORE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS...BUILDS A WEAK SAGGY TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO QUICKLY REORGANIZE
OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE PLUME
PERSISTING OVER PARTS OF THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST GUESS FOLLOWS THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT
WILL KEEP EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER PERIOD
THAN FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...MOVING NE AROUND 10KTS. THICK CIRRUS WILL
DELAY INITIATION A BIT...BUT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN
EASTERN AZ WILL MAKE SURE STORMS DEVELOP. REGIME SETUP POINTS TO
KGUP AND KFMN AS BEST CHANCES AT LEAST FOR VCTS WITH REDUCED
CHANCES AT OTHER CENTRAL NM SITES. TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD
ALTER PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS...AND WILL DETERMINE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. KEEPING VCTS AT KABQ AND KAEG
WITH BEST CHANCE WINDOW BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WHILE BKN CIRRUS
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN NM.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  81  56  79 /  40  50  50  40
DULCE...........................  48  76  45  72 /  30  50  50  60
CUBA............................  50  74  50  75 /  30  50  50  60
GALLUP..........................  52  79  51  77 /  50  50  60  40
EL MORRO........................  49  73  49  69 /  60  60  60  60
GRANTS..........................  52  76  51  73 /  50  60  60  60
QUEMADO.........................  55  74  54  70 /  50  60  60  60
GLENWOOD........................  57  76  56  72 /  50  50  60  50
CHAMA...........................  45  68  45  69 /  40  60  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  79  58  74 /  40  60  60  60
PECOS...........................  54  75  54  71 /  20  30  30  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  76  50  75 /  30  40  40  50
RED RIVER.......................  44  67  45  67 /  40  40  40  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  67  49  66 /  30  60  40  70
TAOS............................  49  79  49  77 /  20  50  40  40
MORA............................  51  74  51  69 /  20  50  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  54  84  54  81 /  30  60  50  40
SANTA FE........................  58  78  57  77 /  30  40  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  83  56  79 /  30  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  82  59  78 /  30  30  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  84  61  80 /  30  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  86  57  82 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  86  58  82 /  30  40  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  88  58  84 /  30  40  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  60  84  61  81 /  30  30  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  63  87  62  83 /  30  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  79  56  76 /  30  40  40  60
TIJERAS.........................  58  81  57  78 /  30  40  40  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  81  51  77 /  20  30  30  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  79  55  74 /  20  30  40  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  81  56  76 /  20  30  30  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  84  60  80 /  10  40  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  56  76  56  72 /  20  40  30  50
CAPULIN.........................  53  81  54  80 /  30  30  20  40
RATON...........................  54  83  55  81 /  20  30  20  30
SPRINGER........................  57  87  55  83 /  10  30  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  81  54  76 /  10  30  20  40
CLAYTON.........................  63  90  62  87 /  10  20  20  30
ROY.............................  59  86  59  81 /  10  20  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  67  93  66  90 /  10  20  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  64  90  63  87 /  20  20  20  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  94  65  92 /   5  20  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  91  62  88 /   5  10  10  10
PORTALES........................  66  91  65  88 /   5  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  91  65  88 /   5  20  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  66  95  66  91 /   5  10  10  10
PICACHO.........................  62  88  61  84 /  20  40  20  30
ELK.............................  58  81  57  77 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52



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