963
FXUS65 KABQ 101200 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

- Hazardous heat is forecast for the northwest plateau and from
  Albuquerque to Grants today.

- For the remainder of the work week some gusty virga showers and
  dry thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon and early evening
  west of the central mountain chain and north of Highway 60.
  Wetting precipitation chances will begin to increase there this
  weekend into early next week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
  each afternoon and evening Friday through early next week from
  the central mountain chain eastward, and over the southwest
  mountains. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day with
  a heightened risk of burn scar flash flooding.

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for eastern areas each
  afternoon and evening today through Saturday. Hail and damaging
  wind gusts will be the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 113 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

High pressure aloft will remain west of NM for the next 7 days,
while another high pressure system varies its position around the
Gulf Coast, leaving the forecast area in region of lower pressure
with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. However, moisture
will be somewhat limited today and especially Friday as drier air
works its way over the forecast area from the west. By Friday
afternoon, PWATs will bottom out around 75-50% of average for this
time of year along and west of the central mountain chain, and
closer to average farther east. Nonetheless, scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms will break out both days with greater
coverage today as an upper level trough clips northeast NM in
northwest flow aloft. In the wake of the upper level trough, a
somewhat moist backdoor front will enter the eastern plains. There
will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over east central
and northeast parts of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening, then over more of the east Friday afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile, along and west of the central mountain chain today and
Friday, some virga showers and dry thunderstorms are forecast, and
some of these will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up
to 50 mph with little or no rain reaching the surface.

Otherwise, high temperatures today will generally vary from a few
to around 10 degrees above 30-year averages. Highs around 100 F
will constitute hazardous heat from Albuquerque to Grants this
afternoon, and also around Farmington. High temperatures on Friday
look to fall a few to 5 degrees along and north of Highway 60, but
readings may remain warm enough for hazardous heat mainly in the
lower Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are forecast this weekend through the middle of the coming week.
Their potential to produce locally heavy rainfall will increase
as rich Gulf moisture works its way farther and farther west with
each day. A combination of moist backdoor fronts and southeasterly
low level return flow will deliver the moisture even to western
areas by late in the weekend. On Saturday, however, some cells
along the continental divide of northwest NM will probably still
be mostly dry and gusty. One period of heavier rainfall looks to
occur from the central mountain chain eastward Saturday and
Saturday night, when severe storms will also be possible, as an
upper level trough crossing from northern to eastern areas forms
a closed low pressure system. Areas of heavier precipitation will
likely linger into Sunday along and east of the central mountain
chain as the upper low stalls over east central and southeast NM.
The effects of this upper low may linger through Monday as it
gradually exits north and northeastward. Then, another upper level
trough will sweep through northern and eastern areas Tuesday with
a moisture-rich backdoor front that will continue to invigorate
convection through Wednesday. The burn scars will no doubt be on
high alert due to the risk of flash flooding each day starting
potentially as early as Saturday, but more likely Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast along
and east of the continental divide this afternoon and evening.
Some storms will probably turn severe east of the Sangre de
Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains by producing large hail and
damaging winds. Meanwhile, some virga showers and dry
thunderstorms mainly along and west of the central mountain chain
will produce dry microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic
wind gusts up to 45 knots. After midnight tonight, isolated
showers and thunderstorms may linger south of I-40 and along and
east of the south central mountains. Otherwise, high temperatures
along and west of the central mountain chain will climb around 4
to 11 degrees above 30-year averages this afternoon, making
density altitude an important consideration for aviation
operations near complex terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 113 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Heat, as well as gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will
be the main fire weather concern along and west of the central
mountain chain for the remainder of this week. Temperatures will
trend cooler as Gulf moisture increases over western areas with
central valley gap winds each night over the weekend. Nocturnal
gusts below canyons should generally vary in the 25-40 mph range,
but could be stronger at times below favored canyons like Tijeras
Canyon in Albuquerque. Coverage of dry storms out west will begin
to decrease Saturday, but the potential exists for a mix of wet
and dry cells to return each day next week for the Four Corners
region, since the main high pressure system aloft looks to remain
west of NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100  59  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  94  46  92  45 /  10   0   5  10
Cuba............................  94  57  92  56 /  20   5   0   5
Gallup..........................  96  53  94  49 /  10   5   0   0
El Morro........................  91  57  90  54 /  10  10   0   5
Grants..........................  97  57  94  54 /  20   5   0   5
Quemado.........................  93  61  91  58 /  20  20   5  10
Magdalena.......................  94  68  94  63 /  30  20   5  10
Datil...........................  92  64  90  59 /  30  20   5   5
Reserve.........................  98  56  97  53 /  30  30  10  10
Glenwood........................ 103  63 102  60 /  30  20  10  10
Chama...........................  87  48  86  46 /  20   0  10  10
Los Alamos......................  91  63  89  59 /  20   5  10  10
Pecos...........................  90  59  88  56 /  40  10  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  88  54  87  52 /  40  10  30  30
Red River.......................  79  46  78  44 /  50  10  40  40
Angel Fire......................  82  39  80  39 /  50  10  40  30
Taos............................  92  52  89  51 /  30   5  20  20
Mora............................  87  52  84  49 /  40  10  40  30
Espanola........................  98  59  97  58 /  20   5  10  20
Santa Fe........................  92  62  91  59 /  30  10  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  97  61  94  59 /  20  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  99  71  97  67 /  20  20   5  20
Albuquerque Heights............. 100  69  99  67 /  20  10   0  10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 102  68 101  66 /  10  10   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 101  70  99  67 /  10  10   0  10
Belen........................... 101  67 102  63 /  10  10   0  10
Bernalillo...................... 102  67 101  65 /  20  10   0  10
Bosque Farms.................... 101  66 100  63 /  10  10   0  10
Corrales........................ 102  68 101  66 /  10  10   0  10
Los Lunas....................... 101  67 100  64 /  10  10   0  10
Placitas........................  98  67  96  65 /  20  10   5  10
Rio Rancho...................... 101  68  99  66 /  10  10   0  10
Socorro......................... 102  72 103  68 /  20  20   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  93  62  92  59 /  20  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  95  65  93  61 /  20  10  10  10
Edgewood........................  94  58  92  56 /  20  10  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  57  93  54 /  20  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  89  58  87  56 /  20  20  10  20
Mountainair.....................  94  60  92  57 /  30  20  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  93  60  92  58 /  30  20  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  94  67  97  65 /  20  20  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  87  63  89  59 /  30  20  30  10
Capulin.........................  87  53  82  51 /  50  40  30  70
Raton...........................  90  54  87  53 /  40  20  30  50
Springer........................  93  54  89  54 /  40  20  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  89  54  86  53 /  30  10  30  30
Clayton.........................  94  61  90  59 /  30  50   5  60
Roy.............................  90  57  87  57 /  30  30  20  40
Conchas.........................  98  63  94  64 /  20  30  10  40
Santa Rosa......................  96  62  91  62 /  20  20   5  30
Tucumcari.......................  95  63  92  62 /  10  30   5  40
Clovis..........................  96  66  94  66 /   0  20   0  40
Portales........................  97  66  95  66 /   0  20   0  40
Fort Sumner.....................  97  65  96  66 /  10  20   0  20
Roswell.........................  99  72 100  71 /   5  20   0  10
Picacho.........................  96  66  95  64 /  10  20  10  10
Elk.............................  94  66  94  62 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ201-207-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44