Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 171135 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Overnight convection has died off with mostly VFR across the forecast
area. Afternoon convection will once again fire up over the higher
terrain before generally moving S/SW into valley locations over
western and centrl NM, with periods of MVFR conditions accompanying
the passage of any of the stronger storms. A mid-level low, visible
on GOES-16 WV imagery over eastern NM and western TX is setting up a
weak deformation zone which could spark a few isolated t-storms over
the east-central plains, potentially reaching KTCC. Afternoon storms
will persist into the late evening and early morning hours.



.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017...
Sufficient moisture will remain intact over New Mexico today for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms in much of the state. The
mountains will observe more numerous storms, and temperatures across
the state will run close to normal for mid July. Drier air will
arrive into eastern and then central New Mexico Tuesday and into
Wednesday. This will limit thunderstorm potential there while western
New Mexico continues to observe afternoon and evening development.
Upper 90s to perhaps triple digit temperatures are expected in the
east central plains Tuesday and Wednesday. Into the latter part of
the week, thunderstorm potential will begin to increase more in
central parts of New Mexico.


High pressure is currently partitioned into two segments, one over
southern Nevada and another over the Missouri River Valley. Through
the upcoming week, high pressure will gradually consolidate toward
the eastern segment, eventually taking up residence even farther east
toward the Mississippi valley by Friday. This will steer variable
winds aloft into New Mexico. Today the mid tropospheric flow will
likely tend to prevail northeasterly, but some deformation between
the western segment of the high and the lingering low over eastern
Colorado will add some variability to direction and consequently
storms may drift with variable headings. Overall moisture content
over NM will stay sufficiently intact today for storm potential in
every zone, with higher probabilities (in a climatologically sound
fashion) over the mountains.

A bout of drier easterly winds aloft will arrive on Tuesday and
Wednesday, leading to less overall thunderstorm potential for much of
central and eastern NM. Temperatures will consequently warm up a few
degrees in eastern zones, potentially flirting with the century mark
in Tucumcari on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances will then nudge back up over central and
western NM Thursday and a bit more-so into Friday as the high tries
to establish east of the Mississippi and some semblance of light
southerly flow draws in a better tap of subtropical moisture. Mid
tropospheric pressure heights appear to stay low and this would limit
subsidence inversions that could inhibit storms, so storm potential
is escalating. Temperatures will stay within a few degrees of
seasonal averages each day.

Into next weekend, no dominant upper level feature appears to take
reign of NM, as the high redeveloping over the Great Basin will be
relatively weak and this should keep existing moisture in place with
limited subsidence. POP forecast is steered toward, if not even
beyond, climatological normals for mid to late July.




The upper high slides and reforms east of the region this coming
week, allowing for a better tap into monsoonal moisture. Daily
rounds of tstorms expected across much of the western two-thirds of
NM, with a dry mid-level air mass providing a lull in storm activity
Wednesday. RH recoveries remain good each night, while vent rates
will be fair with pockets of poor across the west.

Tonight`s storms have died off considerably since the afternoon with
only a few pockets of showers remaining along and N of I-40. The
upper high will begin to shift east and elongate Monday, making for
a N to S steering flow for afternoon storms firing off the higher
terrain. Localized flooding concerns will be present through the
week where the heaviest rainfall occurs, especially over recent burn

By Tuesday, the upper high centered over KS/OK will become the
dominate feature with well established monsoonal flow over NM. The
best chances for widespread wetting precipitation will remain over
western NM. Storms coverage looks to take a break Wednesday as dry
mid-level air moves into the region ahead of an inverted trough.
This could limit convection to extreme western NM, however with
plenty of low level moisture still entrenched, cannot rule out
isolated convection remaining over the central mtn chain. Storm
coverage trends back up Thursday and into the weekend.

The upper high begins to reform over the Great Basin region by the
end of next weekend cutting off the deep feed of monsoon moisture. A
backdoor front could sweep into eastern NM by Sunday before that
happens, providing extra moisture to the eastern plains where there
could finally be good coverage of wetting rains. There will still be
plenty of remnant sfc moisture to keep daily rounds of t-storms
going into early next week.





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