Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 281149 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
449 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail with some mountain obscurations, mainly
over the Northern Mountains. However, deterioration is forecast
across western New Mexico later today with the onset of a round of
snow. MVFR conditions are forecast with snow later today/tonight,
with potential for short-lived IFR conditions at KGUP and KFMN.
Snow and associated sub-VFR conditions are less certain across
central New Mexico while high forecast confidence exists in VFR
conditions persisting across eastern New Mexico. Mountain
obscurations will become widespread tonight. Otherwise, strong
west to northwest winds will prevail today. Gusts may approach
airport weather warning threshold at KABQ this afternoon.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in between storm systems is expected this morning.
Strong west and northwest winds will continue today, tapering off
overnight. A cold upper level trough will drop southeastward into
the western half of New Mexico late this afternoon and overnight.
Accumulating snow is likely across much of western New Mexico
this afternoon and tonight. The coldest air of the season will
move in behind this system Tuesday. Cold condtions are expected
through the remainder of the work week with temperatures between
10 and 15 degrees below average for late November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As one short-wave trough moves east through central NM this
morning, another colder trough is poised across the inland
northwest. This wave will be accompanied by a 140kt jet nosing
into NM from the northwest. Most weather prediction models depict
some sort of broad snow band along a strong mid level baroclinic
zone extending from nw to se across NM tonight. Local 4-km WRF-ARW
keeps this band intact across the mid RGV but NAM and GFS are not
as gung ho. Confidence in accumulating snowfall for much of
western NM tonight is high and went ahead with a winter weather
advisory for much of the west from late this afternoon through 12z
Tuesday. Not quite sold on accumulating snow for the Santa Fe and
ABQ metro areas tonight given the wly low level flow and the
associated downsloping that will take place. Day shift can have
one more look at things before deciding on including the mid RGV
in any winter highlights.

Cold will be the main story Tuesday as the above mentioned upper
trough drops south and southeast. The one exception is across the
northeast quarter where an ill defined closed low will keep areas
of light to moderate snow possible in the northern mountains.
Tuesday still looking like the coldest day of the next several for
all areas with temperature 7 to 20 degrees below average for late
November. Models agree that the flow aloft is forecast to back
ever so slowly Tuesday night and Wednesday with slight warming
taking place most areas Wednesday afternoon.

Models continue with idea of backing the flow aloft Thursday,
resulting in temperatures warming another couple of degrees. The
slight warming trend will likely be short-lived as the next
trough/closed low in the pipeline drops into the Desert Southwest.
GFS and ECMWF are very similar through 12z Friday but then slight
differences beyond that make substantial changes in the sensible
weather for Friday and Friday night. The more consistent ECMWF
track is slightly farther east, taking the closed low to near the
NM bootheel Friday evening. This track would result in widespread
light to moderate snow for much of the area Friday and Friday
night. GEFS (GFS ensemble) mean is very near the 00z operational
ECMWF and trended the Friday/Saturday forecast toward this
solution as a result. Let it snow.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very cold airmass will overtake the area today into tonight,
courtesy of the polar jet stream dipping southeast from the Great
Basin and moving directly over New Mexico. Windy conditions are
forecast, with a round of snow developing across the western high
terrain by mid to late day. A round of snow will progress east
overnight and bring accumulations to much of the higher terrain,
surrounding highlands and possibly the Rio Grande Valley. A final
round of snow will come late Tuesday as a potent shortwave trough
moves over northern New Mexico, bringing accumulating snow to the
Northern Mountains. Cold air advection will continue through Tuesday
night, with some of the coldest temperatures so far this season
spreading over much of the area by Wednesday morning. Vent rates
will be a mixed bag through Tuesday, though generally good to
excellent.

A short-lived warming/drying trend is forecast Wed/Thu, though
daytime temperatures will remain below to well below normal.
Vent rates will take a dip mid to late week as winds decrease and a
relatively cold airmass remains in the lower boundary layer.
Relatively high forecast confidence on a stronger backdoor cold
front Friday, though lower confidence on the placement/progression
of an upper low due to continued differences in the medium range
model solutions and associated ensembles. Although there is some
decent precipitation potential for Fri/Sat, it may be quick-hitter
due to the fast southward progression of the upper low.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for
the following zones... NMZ512>515-521>524-526-529-532>537-539-540.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Tuesday for the following zones... NMZ501>507-510-511.

&&

$$

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