Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 192131
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
331 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A back door cold front will dive into the eastern plains tonight
with cooler temperatures across the east on Thursday. The focus for
breezy conditions will shift to western areas on Thursday afternoon
as an approaching upper level trough causes winds aloft to
strengthen. The trough will pass north of New Mexico Friday steering
the jet stream over New Mexico with strong surface winds and fire
weather concerns. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the northern mountains and much of the plains mainly
Thursday night. After a cold front brings cooler temperatures to
western areas Friday and eastern areas Saturday, a ridge of high
pressure will cross this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In the wake of the upper level trough crossing Colorado on Friday, a
secondary perturbation will clip NE NM in NW flow aloft causing
the chance for showers and thunderstorms to linger along and east of
the Sangre de Cristos near the Colorado border Friday through
Saturday. A decent back door cold front could support shower
formation Friday night. This front will probably produce a gusty east
canyon wind in the Rio Grande Valley Friday night.

The ridge axis will pass over the area on Sunday morning, then the
ridge will begin to break down Sunday afternoon as another upper
level trough crosses the northern and central Rockies. This feature
will induce a lee side surface trough with breezy surface winds
across northeast areas on Sunday.

A series of upper level troughs will then continue to cross the
northern and central Rockies through the first half of the coming
work week keeping breezy conditions in the forecast with the
potential for more fire weather concerns.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and moist conditons will favor the eastern plains overnight
because of a back door cold front invasion. Breezy to windy condtions
will follow the front as it pushes south and west. The front will
arrive along the central mountain chain Thursday morning delivering a
period of gusty gaps for the middle RGV. The front will continue
pushing westward toward the ConDvd by Thursday aftn. At the same
time, an upper level disturbance will inch toward the central Rockies
developing dry and breezy to windy condtions central and west.
Showers and thunderstorms could develop across northern and eastern
NM Thurs aftn with surface convergence settling right along the
central mtn chain. Meanwhile, spotty fire weather concerns will favor
areas west of the central mtn chain because of remaining above
normal highs, single digit Min RH`s and increasing winds. Spotty
Super Haines will develop across the southern portion of Fire Zones
106 and 109.

The Pacific disturbance will dive across the central Rockies before
clipping NE NM Friday aftn. Lingering moisture in the east will be
pushed out as the system clips the state heading toward the central
U.S. Plains. Although temperatures will cool several degrees west
and central, this set up will help increase critical fire weather
concerns for many fire wx zones stretching from San Juan river
valley southeastward over central and east central NM. Friday`s Min
RH`s will plummet areawide into the low teens with windy conditions
along and east of the central mtn chain.

Fri night into Sat, another back door cold front will spill into the
eastern plains toward the central mtn chain with gusty winds and
cooler temperatures to follow. Sun through Tues, NM will see
progressive westerlies with periods of breezy to gusty surface
winds. Another upper level disturbance will cross the central
rockies Wed into Thurs with chances of wetting precipitation
favoring northern portions of the state.

Look for good to excellent vent rates Thurs and Fri. Rates will
deteriorate central and east Sat but improve areawide Sun and Mon.

32

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Breezy to windy conditions will prevail across the state today with
advisory level winds along and east of the central mtn chain. Mtn
wave activity will also be favorable near and east of the Sangre De
Cristos. Wind gusts will range 25 to 35 kts during the aftn period.
A back door cold front will dive into the eastern plains tonight
shifting winds around with gusts to follow. Gap wind impacts will
favor the RGV/ABQ Sunport Thursday morning.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  75  39  63 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  69  31  61 /   0  10  10   0
Cuba............................  38  70  34  60 /   0  10   5   0
Gallup..........................  31  74  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  29  70  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  32  75  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  40  74  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  36  84  37  87 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  32  63  29  58 /   0  30  20   0
Los Alamos......................  47  67  41  62 /   0  10  10   0
Pecos...........................  37  66  35  63 /   0  10  20   0
Cerro/Questa....................  34  65  33  62 /   0  30  20  10
Red River.......................  29  59  27  57 /   0  50  40  10
Angel Fire......................  27  57  27  55 /   0  40  50  10
Taos............................  33  67  32  63 /   0  20  20   5
Mora............................  39  63  36  62 /   0  30  30   0
Espanola........................  44  73  40  69 /   0  10  10   0
Santa Fe........................  48  66  41  62 /   0  10  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  43  71  38  67 /   0   5  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  78  46  71 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  79  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  81  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  47  82  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  44  83  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  48  81  44  73 /   0   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  49  85  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  40  73  37  65 /   0   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  46  75  42  67 /   0   0   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  72  37  66 /   0   0   5   0
Clines Corners..................  41  68  39  64 /   0   5  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  77  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  46  81  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  42  76  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  39  59  40  58 /   0  20  30  20
Raton...........................  40  66  38  66 /   0  20  30  20
Springer........................  40  68  39  68 /   0  10  30  10
Las Vegas.......................  39  66  38  67 /   0  10  30   0
Clayton.........................  46  68  45  66 /   0   5  30  30
Roy.............................  44  66  44  69 /   0  10  30   5
Conchas.........................  52  73  51  77 /   0   5  30   5
Santa Rosa......................  48  75  47  77 /   0   5  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  52  77  51  81 /   0   5  30   5
Clovis..........................  50  75  51  80 /   0   5  20   0
Portales........................  52  76  52  80 /   0   5  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  77  51  79 /   0   0  20   0
Roswell.........................  56  85  52  88 /   0   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  51  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  47  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ107-108.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ513>515-523.

&&

$$

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