Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 171745
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ODILE/S REMAINS TRACK INTO THE REGION.
BANDS OF -RA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH ISOLD TO SCT
TSTMS DEVELOPING WHERE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY BREAK. MTS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 18/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE REMNANT LOW PASSES OVER THE
HEART OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS BUT LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT AREAWIDE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER PATTERN SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TO EXTEND IT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND TO ADD THE REMAINDER OF CHAVES COUNTY. FURTHER TIME
AND AREAL EXTENSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATER SHIFTS TO COVER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

PER NHC 3AM MDT UPDATE...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO MX AND SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RAPIDLY
WEAKENS OVER LAND. THAT PROCESS MAY BE UNDER WAY ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO GET INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NEWD.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CLOSE TO TUCSON
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO OUR SW ZONES SOMETIME THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE SHOWING THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OVER CATRON COUNTY NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT TRENDING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING A BROAD BUT WELL- DEFINED LOW CENTER BETWEEN
FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE WHILE THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO
SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN LATER PERIODS...GENERALLY
DRIVES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MORE EASTERLY THAN NELY. TRACKING
THE CORE OF THIS REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE CRITICAL AS IT WILL
GENERATE TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES AS IT CONTRACTS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF WC/SW NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST FOR THE GILA AS WELL
AS BURN SCARS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH OUT THE CURRENT WATCH
AREA PARTICULARLY LOWLAND AREAS OF SOCORRO/CATRON COUNTIES THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MEANWHILE...POP PLACEMENT FOR WEST-CENTRAL...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NEIGHBORING CENTRAL HIGHLAND ZONES CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING AS
PRECIP BANDS MIGRATING NORTHWARD SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING BENEATH A
BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH ON
PROSPECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
GRANTS/GALLUP AND TRENDED POP UPWARD CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SC/SW ZONES TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY BUT THE WRF/HRRR DO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE SE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/EVENING.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MORE SUNSHINE MAY SPELL A MORE
ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BUT TRENDING LESS ACTIVE BY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT UPTICK
IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SEE BELOW FOR A MORE DETAILED
EXTENDED ANALYSIS. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE REMNANTS OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER TUCSON
TONIGHT...GALLUP THURSDAY...THEN CHAMA/TAOS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...THEN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER ROBUST DYNAMICS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM THE GALLINAS MOUNTAINS WESTWARD ACROSS SOCORRO COUNTY AND
THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN CHUSKAS...THE BRAZOS AND CLAYTON. EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. IT MAY TAKE TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS MODELS AGREE BETTER ON AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OFF THE CA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THE STORM EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD EITHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITIES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND A FEW TO 16
PERCENT ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THEN...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF NM DRAWS A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD
OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS LOOK
FAVORED FOR WETTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME MAY THEN FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS.

WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY A
FEW TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARD NORMAL ON FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME
OF THE BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
THEN REACH NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO DROP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TODAY...FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEAGER HAINES VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$






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