Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 141747 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1047 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Abundant low level moisture left over in the wake of the Pac low
passage. Myriad of categories exist across N/C NM but look for those
conditions and ceilings to improve through the day, with increasing
visibilities. There is some concern for early morning low cloud
levels or even patchy fog in or around FMN and GUP, however there is
little confidence in adding them to the TAFs. Wind directions over
the eastern plains TAF sites will remain out of the N, gradually
backing to the NW heading into the overnight hours.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level storm system will exit New Mexico today but not
before some lingering rain and snow, gusty north to northeast winds
and localized areas of morning fog. Drier and warmer weather is on
tap for most of the work week. Another storm system could impact
the region starting Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Precipitation keeps spitting off and on over portions of the
forecast area attm, although expect a tapering off as the day
progresses. Will be allowing or cancelling the existing warnings and
advisories. Current temperatures and in some cases, dew points, are
above freezing. Latest HRRR and RAP13 indicate precipitation may
linger into the afternoon over the east central, but think any yet
to fall in the next 6 hrs or so snowfall not likely to result in a
significant impact. That said, some colder air aloft forecast to
spread southward over the eastern plains but from recent obs,
conditions have improved from the north. Another closed low to
develop per GFS to our south tonight, which then drops southward and
out of our hair, so left some pops in the Gila as satellite imagery
supports this development.

Otherwise Tuesday through Thursday should be drier and warmer with
highs rebounding to above average overall by Thursday. Another
system to approach our western border Friday. This system is
forecast to be different from the current exiting one, in that it`s
quite the negatively tilted trough rather than a wobbly closed low.
There`s also an absence of cold air at the surface, and it`s not
terribly cold at mt top levels either. While higher terrain snow
can`t be ruled out, it could be pretty high up, as models suggest
right now. but that could change.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unsettled weather will come to an end today. Drier and warmer
conditions expected Wed to Fri before unsettledness returns during
the weekend.

Current storm system will exit the state today. Residual light
showers will impact the southern half but additional wetting
moisture is less likely...other than across the SE plains. Higher RH
and cooler than normal temps will occur today. Ventilation will
actually rise today but still looking at poor rates across the
western half.

A drier and warmer pattern will occur Wed through Fri. High temps
will be above normal areawide by Thursday and last into Fri. RH
values will also lower with a mid level dry intrusion showing up in
the modeling across the NE third to half Thu/Fri. Went a little
below model dewpoint guidance for that period across the NE. Can see
some single digits show up during the afternoon as a result.
Otherwise more normal RH readings. RH is expected to increase in Fri
across the western half because of the next Pacific garden
hose impact. Surface winds will be quite light on Wed and increase
some Thu but especially Fri along and to the east of the central
mtns. A northeast wind shift is expected across the northeast plains
Fri afternoon. Ventilation will start out on the low side Wed but
gradually increase Thu and especially show an increase on Fri.

All of the modeling has been showing an unsettled Pacific trough
pattern for the weekend period the past several days. Think it still
too early to determine the specific impacts but some areas should
receive wetting moisture. Especially western areas. The latest ECMWF
digs the main Pacific low further south. The latest GFS/Canadian
models show pretty much a little more precipitation impact. The
system as it stands right now is pretty progressive so long duration
impacts will be somewhat lessened. Either way...humidity values will
rise while temperatures cool. Ventilation will also increase due to
increasing mixing heights and transport winds.

Decided to increase surface winds for the Monday period although
some uncertainty in terms of the actual wind structure from the
departing trough.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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