Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 171103 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
503 AM MDT Wed May 17 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Upr low continues to lift ne into KS at 11Z with diminishing and
isold MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in -shra ovr ne NM. Otherwise, nw to wly
flow alf with sfc lee trof. Showers, high terrain snow showers and
tstms becoming more numerous ovr nw and north central NM aft 18Z
with higher terrain becoming obscured as the next upper low drops
into the Great Basin. Sfc wnd gusts to around 35kt along and nr the
Sangre de Cristo mts and ovr ne NM in the wake of the departing upr
low, then expanding by 18Z ovr the region along and south of
Interstate 40 and east of Interstate 25.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT Wed May 17 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
The first storm system is about to clear the state while the second
is spinning over Idaho. This second system will swing over the Great
Basin and central Rockies and provide another round of unsettled
weather to northern and central New Mexico through the end of the
week. Precipitation will tend to favor western and northern areas
and high temperatures will be cooler than normal. Slight warming is
expected during the weekend into early next week although high
temperatures will be more near normal. Cant rule out some
thunderstorms during the weekend but they should be more hit and
miss.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast change has to do with the models taking the upper
low a little further north late week. Otherwise....pretty steady
forecast.

The first upper level low is getting ready to pivot out of the area.
Some wrap around precipitation remains across the NE but based on
HRRR and local WRF...most of that precipitation should be off to the
east by 6 am.

All eyes will be on the second low which is currently spinning over
Idaho. Models have remained steadfast with bringing a solid frontal
precipitation band into NW areas later today and sag it southward
tonight into Thur morning. Based on run to run consistency...the NW
quarter should receive some decent precipitation including high
elevation snow. High confidence for that precipitation event so have
some higher PoPs to reflect that confidence. Adjusted high temps a
little below model guidance across the NW half due to cloud cover and
moisture but went a little above guidance across the SE half due to
downsloping and more sun considerations both Wed and lesser extent
Thu. Based on the strengthening flow aloft...abundant mixing heights
and a deepening surface low....some eastern areas could observe
advisory levels wind speeds Thu aft. Will be watching that trend.

As mentioned above...all of the models except for the 12z Canadian
seem to be shifting the upper low further north Fri into Fri night.
Deformation or wrap around precipitation would remain a possibility
across NC and NE areas. Did trim PoPs as a result but not too much
since the models could change their tune. Systems have been taking a
more southerly track the past few weeks so cant rule that out.

Models remain steadfast with a drying and warming trend during the
weekend. With that being said, high temps will be hard pressed to
reach normal readings. Expecting some residual moisture to fire off
some drier storms favoring the higher terrain although pretty hit and
miss.

Not real confident with the early next week period.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low over northeast NM early this morning producing wrap around
precipitation across the northeast plains as well as some gusty
winds from the east slopes of the central mt chain over the eastern
plains. Short term models track the upper low out of the state and
into Kansas rapidly after sunrise this morning so look for that
activity to taper off quickly. The wind appears to linger into the
day today as surface low pressure deepens over southeast Colorado. In
addition, the next and incoming upper low will sag into the Great
Basin, with strengthening and moist westerly flow into the Four
Corners region and northwest mountains, where showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous after midday. Sub
15 percent humidity values this afternoon combined with gusty west
winds will produce several hours of critical conditions over portions
of central and east central NM this afternoon, but have decided
against issuing a red flag warning due to marginal Haines, relatively
low mixing heights, and near to below average temperatures.
Otherwise, vent rates will be mostly excellent today.

Chances for precipitation, including thunderstorms, become more
widespread north and west tonight and Thursday. Meager amounts of
snow are expected over the highest northwest and north central peaks
during this time. Temperatures cool again Thursday and are below
average, especially over the central and west by some 10 to 25
degrees. The east central could again see a few hours of critical
conditions Thursday afternoon, with more seasonable and higher
mixing heights, although areal coverage is less than today. It
should be noted the dew point forecast is tricky based on expected
convection, potential for the low levels to dry out due to stronger
westerly winds which could gust to around 50 mph in the Clines
Corners to Raton area, and how far south into NM any lobes of energy
track around the main upper low over Colorado, which models may not
have the most accurate handle on. Vent rates will be excellent
Thursday overall.

Additional energy to rotate over NM Friday shifting the focus for
wetting precipitation to the north central and northeast, before the
low ejects. Vent rates Friday will be good to excellent but diminish
Saturday as northwest flow in the wake of the departing low weakens.
Temperatures remain below average but will slowly warm through
Sunday and into Monday as overnight humidity recoveries diminish,
especially in the west. The backdoor front expected this weekend in
the east now slowly sags southward Sunday, not nearly as impressive.
Return flow may spark some showers and storms central and east
Sunday into Monday. The more vigorous cold front is now next
Tuesday/Wednesday, keeping temperatures below average. So the
unsettled pattern continues.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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