Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 231759
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TO NUMEROUS SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. FMN WILL BE IMPACTED AND
EXPECT LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DIDNT GO WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY CANT RULE IT OUT. LOOK FOR
ADDITIONAL UPDATES FOR THAT TERMINAL SITE. OTHERWISE SH/TS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY NOT IMPACT OTHER TERMINAL
SITES. MODELS SHOW A DRYLINE MOISTURE INTRUSION OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SE/EC PLAINS. ONE OF THE MODELS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
OTHER. DECIDED TO PLACE SCT025 AT ROW TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY
LATE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH TCC AS WELL.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ENDING A LITTLE BEFORE
DAWN AS IT LOOKS AS OF THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE. GOING FORWARD...THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
BRINGING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT THUS SOME SPOTTY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS. THERE STILL WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
THE FAR NORTHWEST EARLY TO MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH NOT TOO MUCH ELSE
ELSEWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF WILL STILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING
LOWER CHANCES WEST AND NORTHWEST BUT A LITTLE GREATER CHANCES
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ONGOING CURRENTLY SO WILL NEED TO MAKE
THIS A BIT SHORTER THAN USUAL. MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENDING A LITTLE BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
AS IS FOR NOW. GOING FORWARD...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...BRINGING SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH IT THUS SOME SPOTTY COLD CORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AND SUN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL
LOOKING AT A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BACK TO NW NM...THERE
MAY BE A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS EASING INTO THE FAR NW
EARLY TO MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH NOT TOO MUCH ELSE ELSEWHERE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE WITH
TUE AND WED BRINGING LOWER CHANCES WEST AND NORTHWEST BUT A
LITTLE GREATER CHANCES EAST...MUCH MORE SO WED THAN TUE. LATE WED
THRU THU NIGHT WILL AGAIN SEE A DEEPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...THOUGH ECMWF STILL GOING WITH A LESS SHARP TROF AND THUS A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD DISCOURAGE MOISTURE FROM SURGING AS FAR WEST AS THE CASE
WOULD BE FOR THE GFS SCENARIO WITH ITS MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS
THAN THE ECMWF.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS WILL PREVAIL AS
OCCASIONAL STORM SYSTEMS AND SURFACE FRONTS IMPACT NEW MEXICO.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A SHORT
LIVED RIDGE WILL REDUCE RATES TO MOSTLY GOOD TUESDAY. RATES IMPROVE
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.

NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST THIRD AND THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...EXCEPT FOR NEXT TUESDAY WHEN ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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