Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 260549 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TS/SH PRIMARILY DONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME
ACTIVITY SNEAKING UP INTO SC/SW AREAS. TERMINAL SITES SHOULD NOT
BE IMPACTED. ANOTHER CROP OF SH/TS WILL DEVELOP FAVORING
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS LATE AM/EARLY PM. BASED ON STEERING
FLOW...TERMINAL SITES SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IMPACTED LATER IN THE
DAY. USED VCSH AT MOST OF THE SITES TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
TOO HARD TO PIN DOWN TS IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. OUTFLOWS ARE MORE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT DURATION.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AREAS...THEN WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BARRELS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THEN
WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM
AROUND NORMAL IN THE WEST TO AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE EAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...THEN READINGS WILL FALL
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY...CHANGING THE DIRECTION
OF THUNDERSTORM MOTION AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PWATS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 1 TO 1.10 INCHES ON SUNDAY AS THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST DEEPENS...LEADING TO THE MOST
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD OF THE WEEKEND BETWEEN THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TRACK
EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO NM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR ANOTHER
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN GENERALLY CENTERED OVER
TEXAS FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REFORM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
SHOULD BE THE LONG AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING FOR SOME TIME. STORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN...EXCEPT
PERHAPS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS DEPENDING ON HOW
THE HIGH SETS UP.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER NM WITH HOT TEMPS
AND ONLY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
SOUTH OF I-40 AND OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS THRU THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD MOST
AREAS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE AN UPTICK IN WETTING RAINFALL
FOOTPRINTS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE WEST AGAIN MONDAY WILL FAVOR A DOWNTICK
IN COVERAGE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS WHILE
MIN RH VALUES APPEAR TO BE THE LOWEST OF THE WEEK. MANY AREAS WILL
FALL BELOW 20 PCT WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TUESDAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER GILA REGION AS REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERLY WAVE WRAPS NORTHWARD INTO THE MONSOON
CIRCULATION.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS THEN ADVERTISED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH ORGANIZES TO THE WEST OF NM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
HELP FORCE A MOIST BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THEN
EVENTUALLY WEST THRU THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND
UP SEVERAL PERCENT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES AREAWIDE.
VENT RATES AND HAINES VALUES WILL ALSO DETERIORATE. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES TAKE OVER.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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