Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 230528 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1128 PM MDT MON AUG 22 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Only aviation weather impact concerns overnight are at KTCC and
KROW where MVFR cigs may develop. A bit of a downtrend in storm
coverage forecast Tuesday, although central and western terminals
may still be impacted by late afternoon. Forecaster confidence too
low to include thunderstorms at any one terminal, but KFMN and
KROW would be most likely of the group to be impacted Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT MON AUG 22 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern to continue through the upcoming weekend.
A bit less coverage can be expected this evening and again Tuesday
afternoon and evening compared to Sunday, as drier air aloft has
moved over NM. A back door cold front and upper trough will
combine to bring a sharp increase in storm coverage Wednesday and
especially Thursday. Moisture will recycle Friday through next
weekend with a period of deeper moisture possibly making it into
southern NM Friday or Saturday. A significant drying trend will
take place next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another active late afternoon and evening with some heavy rain,
gusty winds and hail. Storms are at least moving faster than on
Sunday, which will reduce rain amounts and slightly lower the
threat for flash flooding, but storms may bring strong winds and
large hail.

An upper level trough over AZ today will drift east into
northwest NM Tuesday and still be over northern NM Wednesday.
Existing moisture and the added instability from the trough will
keep a good crop of showers and thunderstorms around each
afternoon and evening. Drier air aloft could limit convection
some on Tuesday, making it the least active day of the week.

A back door cold front will reach northeast NM later Wednesday
and rush south and west Wednesday night into the Rio Grande
Valley. This added low level moisture will fuel a widespread round
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday with heavy rain and local
flash flooding a concern.

A southerly low level flow late in the week into the weekend will
continue to tap moisture to our south. A deep subtropical moisture
surge could reach at least southern NM Friday or Saturday. In any
event these days will remain active with widespread convection and
a continued threat for heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

A drying trend may begin Sunday, but in more earnest early next
week. High pressure off Baja CA is forecast to build toward NM and
park itself over the four corners area by midweek next week. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air aloft is moving into the area per latest water vapor
satellite imagery. Though overall storm coverage appears to be down
a bit from yesterday, the drier air is actually resulting in greater
instability and thus stronger intensity storms. Hail and heavy rains
will remain possible with storms through the evening. Storms will
generally move toward the east around 15 mph. The breezy to windy
conditions across northeast NM should diminish after sunset.
Excellent relative humidity recoveries will again be the rule
tonight.

The main shortwave trough will continue to approach NM on Tuesday.
Storm coverage should continue to wane as the monsoonal moisture
plume will be shunted well to the southeast and drier air aloft
continues to filter into NM. Similarly to today though, the storms
that do develop will have the potential to be strong with heavy rain
and hail. Storm motions will be similar to, if not slightly faster
than today. Otherwise, daytime humidities will be down around 5 to
15 percent from today`s readings particularly across central and
eastern NM. Breezy conditions will redevelop across northeast and
east central NM, but should not be quite as strong as today.

The trough will be slow to cross NM on Wednesday. While western NM
will remain relatively inactive, areas along and east of the central
mountain chain should see an increase in activity, particularly Wed
evening, due to the combination of lift from the upper trough and a
back door cold front sliding into the northeast plains.

By early Thursday morning, the front looks to push westward through
the gaps of the central mountain chain. At this time, not expecting
really strong gap winds into the Rio Grande Valley, but the front
does look to ooze westward toward the ContDvd Thurs morning. Cooler
temps and higher humidities are expected across central and eastern
areas. There should also be a bit of an uptick in storm coverage
across the western and central high terrain. Southeasterly flow
Thursday evening should continue to draw moisture into NM, perhaps
allowing storms to persist overnight and/or resulting in an even
more active Friday.

The strength and timing of the next trough passage remains in
question, but if the ECMWF is right, much drier conditions could be
in store by late in the weekend.  However, the GFS is less bullish
at drying it out.  Then early next week, a ridge should be building
in over the desert southwest. That should give temps a healthy boost
upward as well suppress storm development.

Good to excellent vent rates are expected on Tuesday, and generally
on Wednesday as well, though less transport winds on Wednesday will
result in some spotty poor vent rates over the higher terrain.
Ventilation rates will continue to decline across the east on
Thursday in the wake of the cold front, with generally good or
better rates along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Poor vent
rates will also be possible Friday across portions of west central
NM, but elsewhere vent rates should improve.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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