Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 260954
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND MORESO SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE RIDGE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL ALSO TRIGGER MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW SUNDAY AND FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOWLY WANING THIS OVERNIGHT OVER ARIZONA AND COLORADO...AS THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THOSE STATES...CLIPPING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE RIDGE
ALOFT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AND MORESO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...REACHING A PEAK SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KABQ HAS INCREASED QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY THE MET.

NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE MOST DAYS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY TUESDAY...BUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL SEE DAILY REINFORCEMENTS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERHAPS
A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF.
TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK TO COOL DOWN
TO NEAR AVERAGE OR EVEN A BIT BELOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
THE DAILY FRONTS WILL BE ACTIVE. DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS
BECOME MORE APPARENT LONGER TERM...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE RIDGE
INTACT AND THE ECMWF ATTEMPTING TO SHOVE IT EASTWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER NM AS MAIN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER SOCAL...AZ AND THE GREAT
BASIN.  COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS...BUT DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVERALL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LITTLE TO NO STORM MOTION...
HOWEVER... MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS...AS WELL AS
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. WARM TEMPERATURES SO FAR OVERNIGHT HAVE LET TO
MANY AREAS OF POOR AND FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SO FAR THIS MORNING.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD COME UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPAGE THIS AFTN...THOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST AS LOW...IF NOT LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATES OVER COLORADO TODAY MAY SEND
DOWN A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NE NM THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. IF THIS BOUNDARY
DOESNT COME IN...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NE AND EC WILL DROP 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COMPARED TO SATURDAYS READINGS. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N AND NE...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AS THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHIFTS EASTWARD A
BIT. THE FRONT...AIDED BY OUTFLOW...WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SUNDAY AFTN/EVE AND SPILL THE MOISTURE WESTWARD.
THUS...MONDAY WILL BE EVEN MORE ACTIVE AREAWIDE...THOUGH WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL CERTAINLY BE ON TAP
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...THOUGH THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE A
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON ATTM. HOWEVER...AS TIME COMES...THERE MAY BE
ONE THAT DEVELOPS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. THE MOISTURE
PLUME DOES SHIFT A BIT MORE OVER THE STATE...AND THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE WED AND WED NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
UPTICK IN MOISTURE BEHIND IT. THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SLIDING THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE WED NIGHT...BUT THE GFS
IS SLOWER AND KEEPS IT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AT LEAST
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH BY MID WEEK AS WELL...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR AND FAST THE FRONT MOVES IN. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
A WET WEEK. SIGNS INDICATE THAT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOST
ACTIVE AS THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHIFTS SQUARELY OVER NM AND YET
ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID WEEK
AND BEYOND.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FEW SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WC/SW AND FAR NE NEW MEXICO.OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME
VFR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM WHILE CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
THE SE HALF. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
HEART OF NM THROUGH SAT PM. SUBTLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE PERIOD AFTER 18Z SAT...PARTICULARLY WC AND SW NEW MEXICO.
INCLUDED LATE DAY VCSH OR VCTS AT KFMN AND KGUP WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. ALSO INCLUDED VC AT KLVS OWING TO VERY WEAK WEST TO
EAST STEERING FLOW THAT COULD CARRY MTN CONVECTION EASTWARD.  KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  96  65  96  67 /  10  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  91  54  90  56 /  20  20  30  40
CUBA............................  91  58  88  57 /  20  20  40  40
GALLUP..........................  91  59  90  58 /  20  20  30  40
EL MORRO........................  87  57  86  55 /  30  30  40  40
GRANTS..........................  92  57  90  57 /  20  20  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  89  59  86  58 /  30  30  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  93  58  93  57 /  30  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  84  50  84  49 /  30  20  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  89  64  87  62 /  20  20  40  40
PECOS...........................  87  61  81  55 /  20  20  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  87  55  83  52 /  30  30  60  40
RED RIVER.......................  80  48  75  46 /  40  40  70  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  82  44  76  46 /  30  40  70  50
TAOS............................  89  56  85  53 /  20  20  40  30
MORA............................  86  55  81  53 /  30  30  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  94  61  92  58 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  91  63  87  58 /  20  20  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  95  64  91  60 /  10  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  96  69  91  66 /  10  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  98  72  94  69 /  10  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  99  68  95  63 /   5  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  99  70  95  65 /   5  20  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  99  69  95  65 /   5  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  98  70  94  67 /   5  20  20  20
SOCORRO......................... 102  73 100  70 /   5  10  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  91  63  86  60 /  30  20  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  93  66  88  63 /  20  20  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  95  57  89  56 /  10  20  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  93  61  87  58 /  20  30  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  94  65  90  61 /  20  30  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  95  68  92  64 /  10  10  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  89  60  86  58 /  20  10  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  88  59  77  57 /  30  50  70  50
RATON...........................  93  60  81  58 /  30  30  60  40
SPRINGER........................  92  60  82  58 /  30  30  50  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  91  59  82  55 /  30  30  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  99  68  86  62 /  20  30  50  40
ROY.............................  95  65  83  60 /  20  20  50  50
CONCHAS.........................  98  69  90  65 /  10  10  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  99  70  91  66 /  10  10  20  30
TUCUMCARI....................... 102  71  93  68 /   5  10  20  30
CLOVIS..........................  99  69  92  66 /   5   5  10  20
PORTALES........................ 100  70  95  67 /   5   5  10  20
FORT SUMNER..................... 101  70  95  68 /   5  10  20  20
ROSWELL......................... 103  71 100  70 /   5   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  95  67  91  64 /   5   5  10  10
ELK.............................  90  65  88  61 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













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