Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 221035
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 4 TO 10 INCHES. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
WITH A NUMBER OF NORTHERN LOCALES DIPPING BELOW ZERO BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A PROLONGED WARMING TREND TO BEGIN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BAJA LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
553DAM 500MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS DROPPING SOUTH
RAPIDLY AND WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO KEEP SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW
WILL FAVOR EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY
WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WILL LIKELY DROP
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING AS
SNOW ENDS. HERE IN THE ABQ METRO...STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND BY THE TIME WINDS RELAX THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...
LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF ALBUQUERQUE...SUCH AS LOS LUNAS AND BELEN...
MAY PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...CURRENT SET OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND SNOW
WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
FOG. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXTREMELY DRY AND AREAS
THAT GET ABOVE FREEZING TODAY MAY NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND...SO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING FOG TONIGHT. A
FRIGID COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS CLEAR-
OUT WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A PROLONGED WARMING TREND TO BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A REX BLOCK UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...WITH THE
HIGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BAJA LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA LOW WILL BLEED OVER
INTO NEW MEXICO AND RESULT IN CLOUDS BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR GALLUP EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE FOR THE MAGDALENA AND
SAN MATEO MOUNTAIN RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN END OF THE BLACK
RANGE. CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING THAT A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO MAKE
FOR A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT FOR VALLEYS AND BASIN BOTTOMS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT FRIDAY WILL MAKE
FOR POOR VENTILATION RATES FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY.

WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY SUNDAY UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN. VENTILATION RATES REMAIN POOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY...HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM ALONG WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WARMING.

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BEYOND SUNDAY WITH EACH GLOBAL
MODEL OFFERING A DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT OF A
BROAD CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALL MODELS INDICATING THAT
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS WANTS TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH
AND EAST AS WESTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEREAS
THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER SOLUTION KEEPS
THINGS WARM WITH SNOW LEVEL LIKELY ABOVE 10K FEET.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
WILL PERSIST THRU 22/15Z. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WND INTO THE RGV
AT KSAF AND KABQ WITH GUSTS AT KABQ TO AROUND 40KT WILL PERSIST
THRU 22/15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NLY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SN AND FOG THRU 22/15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  39  14  42  16 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  33   6  38  12 /  20   0   0   0
CUBA............................  33   8  37  13 /  40   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  37   7  44  11 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  33   5  39   9 /  40   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  34   4  41  10 /  40   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  32  13  40  18 /  40   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  42  19  50  24 /  30   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  30  -2  36   9 /  30   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  12  37  17 /  50   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  28  11  37  16 /  50   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  -4  34   6 /  30   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  21  -6  31   8 /  40   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  23 -20  32   0 /  50   0   0   0
TAOS............................  29  -4  36   7 /  20   0   0   0
MORA............................  24   4  37  13 /  50   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  33  12  38  18 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  31  13  37  17 /  40   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  32  11  39  15 /  30   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  17  42  21 /  40   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  37  18  44  22 /  30   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  38  15  46  16 /  30   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  37  18  44  22 /  20   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  37  15  45  18 /  20   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  37  17  43  21 /  20   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  35  18  44  22 /  50   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  12  36  18 /  60   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  29  11  37  17 /  50   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  27   3  36  11 /  50   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  26   9  34  16 /  60   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  27   8  36  15 /  70   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  31  12  40  19 /  90  10   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  26  11  39  21 / 100  30   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  25   7  37  16 /  30   0   0   0
RATON...........................  27   3  39  14 /  30   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  27   2  40  13 /  40   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  24   6  40  14 /  50   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  29  10  42  23 /  40   0   0   0
ROY.............................  27   7  40  16 /  50   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  31   9  39  17 /  60   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  30   8  39  15 /  70   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  31   9  38  18 /  70   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  30  12  38  19 / 100  20   0   0
PORTALES........................  31  14  39  20 / 100  20   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  12  38  19 /  90  10   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  32  14  41  19 / 100  20   5   0
PICACHO.........................  29  11  39  16 / 100  30   0   0
ELK.............................  28  12  40  18 / 100  40   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-504-506>508-519-520-525.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>518-521>524-526>540.

&&

$$

11




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