Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 182351
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN PARTS OF NEW
MEXICO. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH COMPLETELY
JUST AFTER DARK. STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF TURNING STRONG
TO SEVERE...MOSTLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHIAN. REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN DOWNPOURS...HAIL...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN SOME EASTERN LOCALES. AREAS JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WOULD SEEM TO BE FAVORED FOR
LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS...BUT SOME FAR EASTERN PLAINS AREAS MAY
ALSO EXPERIENCE THE LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS. AFTER THESE BURN OFF BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL PRODUCE A NOTICEABLE AMOUNT OF LOCALLY HEAVY ACTIVITY. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG CHANGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE MERCURY
WILL RISE TO LEVELS THAT MOST AREAS HAVE NOT SEEN IN A COUPLE
WEEKS. MANY FOLKS WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAT WILL SLOWLY
BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER SHOT OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR LATEST FORECAST CYCLE INTRODUCES SOME CHANGES TO FOCUS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS MORE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THRU THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX PATTERN ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE
CHANGES WILL BE TRICKY TO IRON OUT THRU THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
HIGH IS SHOWN NOW TO AMPLIFY AND SHEAR OVER NM WHILE AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE BAJA DRIFTS NORTHWARD. PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS
MAINTAINED A STRONG GRIP OVER THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME A MORE TRADITIONAL SW TO NE FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN ESSENTIALLY AIDS BETTER RETURN LOW/MID LEVEL MOIST
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WITH STRONG TERRAIN DOMINATED
CIRCULATIONS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES RESULT FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF
STORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED THRU MONDAY.

TRENDED POPS UP THRU MONDAY. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE STEERING FLOWS WILL BE WEAK. ANY ACTIVITY IN
THE EVENING FOR VALLEY LOCALES WILL RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THE 00Z PWAT VALUE ON KABQ RAOB LAST NIGHT WAS NEAR
0.65 AND THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THRU THE
WEEKEND. VALUE RISES ABOVE 1 INCH BY SUNDAY NIGHT SO AN INCREASE
IN POPS IS WARRANTED.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVEN MORE
BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW THE HIGH TO AMPLIFY BIG TIME OVER
NM. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 600DM H5 DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA...SO MANY LOW VALLEY AREAS WILL APPROACH 100F BOTH DAYS.
RECYCLING WILL WORK HARD WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO CHANCES CANNOT
BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH SURGES
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND FORCES THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM BACK TO THE
WEST...INTRODUCING ANOTHER REVERSE MONSOON PATTERN OVER THE STATE
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A SERIES OF POTENT AND MOIST BACK DOOR
FRONTS ARE NOTED ON THE GFS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH HAS
BEEN A GOOD PATTERN THIS YEAR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
AFFECTS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE BEGINNING TO
LESSENING OVER OUR AREA AS THAT FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD. ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THESE SAME AREAS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WITH THE FAVORED AREAS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOVING INTO THE EAST CENTRAL OVERNIGHT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR CENTRAL
AND WEST AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST. MORNING LOWS WILL BE
TRENDING 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE THIS MORNINGS READINGS STAYING ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL. CONTINUED ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FAVORED LOCATIONS AGAIN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN WITH HAINES READINGS INCREASING
ACROSS THE WEST WITH VALUES OF 5 IN THOSE LOCATION. LIGHT WINDS
AREAWIDE WILL LEAD TO POOR VENTILATION RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL BE GOOD
WITH EXCELLENT RATES IN THE NORTHWEST. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWN 6 TO 20 PERCENT FROM TODAYS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE TRENDING UP ALSO
WITH READINGS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE STATE INTO SUNDAY.
MORNING LOWS WILL AGAIN TREND UP SLIGHTLY. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS GULF MOISTURE SNEAKS IN UNDER
THE HIGH. FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL BE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS
POSSIBLE..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO PARK ITSELF OVER
THE STATE AND INTENSIFIES. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
READINGS STAYING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE BUT WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AS WE ARE NOT ABLE TO PULL IN ANY GULF MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DUE TO ANY LEFTOVER/RECYCLED MOISTURE.
HIGH HAINES VALUES OF 5 AND 6 WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS TIME
AREAWIDE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK ALLOWING BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

21/44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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