Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 240546 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1146 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR ANOTHER 1-3
HOURS. STORMS AROUND KROW SHOULD ALSO LINGER FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3
HOURS. THEREAFTER...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR KCQC
SOUTHWARD TO KSRR...BUT KLVS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
OTHERWISE...DO NOT EXPECT HZ TO MAKE IT BACK DOWN TO THE SURFACE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY
FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS ALONG THE SANGRES SHOULD MOVE
SSE WHILE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST.
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER STORMS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS THAT ADVANCED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WILL QUICKLY MODIFY GOING INTO MONDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WEST ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND FAR
SOUTHEAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FUEL AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE MONDAY ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL THE WHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS ITS CENTER
DRIFTS NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH AND COULD BOOST STORM COVERAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO EXPAND/DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHARP N-S INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
FAR SE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED NEAR AND
SOUTH OF KHOB AND YET TO SEE EVIDENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS REGION.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST RATHER UNDERWHELMING THUS FAR LIKELY
THE RESULT OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER. BUT GENERALLY FAVORING AREAS
THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY TARGETED -- UPPER GILA REGION EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD MT TAYLOR DISTRICT. SLOW STORM MOTION ARGUES FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS FITS WITH HIGH RES MODELING.

CLOSER INSPECTION OF EXTENDED SATELLITE LOOPS DOES SHOW WHAT MAY
BE A MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER EASTERN SOCORRO
COUNTY OR JUST EAST AND DRIFTING ENE. THE NAM RESOLVED THIS
FEATURE BEST...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO ANALYZED THIS GENERAL WEAKNESS
BETWEEN TWO 500MB HIGH CENTERS. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTINCT WEAK LOW FEATURE TRACKING SEWD FROM SRN CO OVER NERN NM
LATE TONIGHT. MAIN MESSAGE HERE IS THAT WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SC/SE AREAS.
DID NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AM
BUT WE MAY NEED TO BEEF UP POP/WX IF TRENDS PERSIST. SUSPECT AREAS
OF STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

500MB HIGH LOOKS TO CONSOLIDATE JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND
CENTRAL AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING COMBINED WITH A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL UPTICK IN
STORM COVERAGE FOR MONDAY PM...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINERS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TAKES ON A N-S ORIENTATION ON TUESDAY OVER
CENTRAL NM. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING AN INVERTED
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. THIS COULD BOOST POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS TUE
PM...ESPECIALLY WC/NW ZONES. REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE THEN ATTEMPT
TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND TOP THE RIDGE WED BEFORE RETURNING BACK
TOWARD THE SE AND CROSSING /PERHAPS/ NERN NM BY THU. APPEARS THIS
WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE COMING DAYS. THEREAFTER
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TRENDING DRIER WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
ALONG A NE-SW AXIS AND MUCH LESS POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR FRONT.
KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MADE IT TO APPROXIMATELY THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FADE AWAY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST
THIRD OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PRETTY MUCH AS
EXPECTED THE BULK OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTN
HAS BEEN ACROSS SW AND WEST CENTRAL NM AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHERN
MTNS. THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...THERE SHOULD SOME
FURTHER EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
WITH A FEW STILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NM AS A MODERATE EVE RESUMPTION OF THE EAST WIND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY GET SOME CHALLENGES BY STORM
OUTFLOWS MAINLY FROM THE SW OR WEST.

TEMPERATURES TO WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES IN THE EAST MON...BUT LITTLE OR
NONE IN THE WEST...BRINGING AFTN HIGHS BACK TO WITHIN JUST A FEW
DEGREES OR NORMAL MOST SPOTS. SOME SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY FOR RH MINIMUMS DOWN 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN MUCH OF THE
EAST...LITTLE CHANGE WEST. THE NORTHWEST FIRE WEATHER ZONE WILL BE
DRIEST WITH RH OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT ON MON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH ONE FCST MODEL INSISTS THAT
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS. WE THINK IT WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.

PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE MONDAY...HOWEVER
AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED OUTFLOWS WILL
STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED ERRATIC AND STRONG GUSTS FOR
SHORT DURATIONS.

IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER
OR VERY NEAR NM THROUGH THU...THOUGH THE EXACT CENTER OF CIRCULATION
WILL WOBBLE AROUND SOMEWHAT. A FAIRLY WEAK DISTURBANCE STILL LOOKS
PRETTY LIKELY TO TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH CENTER. THIS
WILL KEEP THE STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
AND PERHAPS CREATING SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES OF COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WEST BY THU. THE LATE WEEK BACK DOOR FRONT AS OF THIS WRITING LOOKS
LESS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE THAN APPEARED PREVIOUSLY TO BE THE CASE.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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