Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 081739 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1039 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN STATES WILL KEEP A DRY NLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SFC WINDS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST INCHES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE
LOW...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHERE MANY EASTERN AREAS
WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP THIS WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER
BY LATE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSIONS...INCLUDING ONE ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LATE FRIDAY...BUT
THESE WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE N OR NE FOR A
SHORT TIME. IN FACT...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH NARY A
DROP OR FLAKE IN SIGHT UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY AS A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE UP
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS...LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE JUST SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE
DATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM. THE GFS NOW
KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE THRU MONDAY...BUT BRINGS A CLOSED LOW OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST EASTWARD TUESDAY WHICH WOULD GENERATE SOME PRECIP
ACROSS NM BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY...THOUGH MORE
LIKELY TUES/WED. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
JUST CLIPPING NE NM LATE SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP. IT THEN BUILDS THE RIDGE RIGHT BACK OVERHEAD. STAY TUNED...
THERE ARE LIKELY MANY MORE CHANGES TO COME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WEST
COAST...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS
SUPPORTING A WARM AND DRY PATTERN OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAK WIND SHIFT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A 5 TO 10 DEGREE
COOLDOWN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND OVER THE
GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...ALL ZONES WILL SEE DAY
TO DAY WARMING. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT ON THURSDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODEST COOLING ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AFTER TODAY...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 20 PERCENT
MOST AREAS EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH VALUES BELOW
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP COURTESY OF
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...MAGNITUDES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HAINES VALUES LOOK TO ALSO PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES OF 5.

MOSTLY POOR VENTILATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
LIMITED AREAS OF THE EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER VENTILATION...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DEPICT A CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A MOISTURE TAP AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS MOVES A TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO IS SLOWER TO MOVE IN MOISTURE.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11


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