Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 190542 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH END IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THRU 14Z OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NM. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY STRONG TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE N/NE AND CONGEAL INTO A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS.
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS TO NEAR IFR.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING
AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING. INSTABILITY
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOME MORE GUSTY VIRGA
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
ALL AREAS AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO
TX/SANTA TERESA NM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER EASTERN NM. A BIT
OF BREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IN THE
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NW AND SE NM THIS PM.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TOUGH CALL ON
A FLOOD WATCH BUT DECIDED COVERAGE TOO ISOLATED. MAY RECONSIDER
THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE NEAR THE
TX BORDER. THE BACK DOOR FRONT IN THE E HAS PUSHED INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

RAIN WILL END FROM W TO E TUESDAY AND WE WILL HAVE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE EAST.

NEXT STORM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE CA COAST MIDWEEK AND BRING MORE
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING IN THE E WED NIGHT...SPREADING W
THURSDAY THEN IN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE E THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX BORDER DURING ALL
THIS TIME. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WETTER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY EAST. THE CONTRAST IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RH WILL BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS
THE WEST WITH EPISODES OF MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL USHER IN PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INITIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN BUT THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF NEW MEXICO WITH THE
WEAKENING JET MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST. WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION PERSISTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH CHANCES OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL STEADILY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON
RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND WEST AND
CENTRAL ZONES...BUT A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES REMAIN DRY WITH MIN VALUES BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY AND
APPROACHES NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE EAST ON THURSDAY WHILE THE WEST REMAINS DRY. BY FRIDAY...
THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO BRINGING IN ANOTHER DRY
SLOT. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AIR MIX TO THE
SURFACE. HIGH HAINES OF SIX IS FORECAST FOR THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASES IN AREA ON FRIDAY. THUS...CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF RH AND
WIND ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOUTH
OF ALBUQUERQUE. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT MOISTURE AND GREEN UP OF
FUELS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEK. VENTILATION
WILL BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE
VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR. POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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