848
FXUS65 KABQ 110759
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
159 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- One more day of hazardous heat is expected today from
  Albuquerque to Grants, southward through Socorro, and also for
  the Farmington area.

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms along and east
  of the central mountain chain today through Sunday. This risk
  will probably continue there each afternoon and evening through
  the coming work week.

- A backdoor front will recharge moisture and lead to an increase
  in daily rounds of storms this weekend into next week, with
  locally heavy rainfall possible each day and an increased threat
  of burn scar flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

With high pressure aloft centered just off the coast of Los
Angeles, and disturbances crossing eastern NM in northwest and
north flow aloft, locations along and east of the central
mountain chain convectively active this afternoon through Saturday
night. With PWATs generally around 50-75% of average west of the
central mountain chain, it will be quite dry there today. PWATs
will be closer to average today farther east, but there will still
be some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms in the mix on
the western edge of the moisture (along the central mountain
chain). A moist backdoor front will plunge through eastern areas
today, probably serving as a trigger for showers and storms on the
eastern plains. Like Thursday, shear and instability profiles
look sufficient for some of these storms to turn severe with large
hail and damaging winds during the afternoon and evening. Models
show the east remaining convectively active all night Friday night
with rich Gulf moisture in place and disturbances crossing in
northwest flow aloft. The front will also push through gaps in the
central mountain chain Friday night, moistening central and
western areas enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms as
far west as the continental divide and the southwest mountains on
Saturday afternoon and evening. Scattered to numerous activity is
forecast over north central areas Saturday afternoon and evening,
and along and east of the central mountain chain, as a stronger
upper level trough dives southward through the eastern half of the
forecast area.

With the dry air over central and western parts of the forecast
area today, it will get quite hot, so we expanded the coverage of
the Heat advisory. High temperatures will trend downward on
Saturday a few to 12 degrees from today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

An upper level high pressure system building over the Gulf coast
will become the main driver of the NM weather pattern in the
coming week as it steers monsoon moisture northward over the
state. Meanwhile, another upper high off the upper Baja Peninsula
coast will help steer disturbances over the forecast area from
fairly active westerlies over the northern and central Rockies.
Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will result, and there will be plenty of moisture in the
atmosphere for locally heavy rainfall each day, and sometimes into
the night. At this time, the greatest risk of locally heavy
rainfall looks to be over the southern and eastern halves of the
forecast area. Recent burn scars will have the greatest risk of
flash flooding, but isolated flash flooding will also be possible
elsewhere, except for a scattered flash flooding risk on Thursday
as a moist backdoor cold front enters the state while a
disturbance embedded in the monsoon flow tracks northward from
Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

High resolution models depict showers and thunderstorms exiting
southeast and east central parts of the forecast area by 09Z this
morning, but lingering over northeast areas until 11Z or so.
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the
central mountain chain eastward on Friday afternoon, then persist
there through Friday night as a moist backdoor front pushes
through the eastern plains. Some gusty virga showers will be in
the mix from Taos southward to Carrizozo Friday afternoon, and
a few of these will be capable of producing dry microburst wind
gusts up to 45 KT. Farther east, isolated severe thunderstorms
will be capable of producing wind gusts over 50 KT and large
hail Friday afternoon and evening. Late Friday night into early
Saturday morning, low clouds east of the central mountain chain
will produce areas of MVFR and IFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Heat will be the main fire weather concern along and west of the
central mountain chain today, where temperatures will vary from
the 90s to lower 100s, except for some cooler readings on higher
peaks. Some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will again
be possible today over the southwest mountains, and also along the
central mountain chain. Temperatures will trend cooler as Gulf
moisture increases over western areas with central valley gap
winds each night over the weekend. Nocturnal gusts below canyons
should generally vary in the 25-40 mph range, but could be
stronger at times below favored canyons like Tijeras Canyon in
Albuquerque. Coverage of dry storms out west will begin to
decrease significantly Saturday. As a broad high pressure system
builds over the Gulf Coast during the week ahead, it will steer
better monsoon moisture northward over western areas allowing
wetting footprints to grow there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  60  96  62 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  92  46  91  45 /   0   0  40  20
Cuba............................  93  55  89  55 /   0   0  40  20
Gallup..........................  95  50  94  51 /   0   0   5  10
El Morro........................  91  54  89  54 /   0   0  20  30
Grants..........................  96  54  92  53 /   0   0  30  20
Quemado.........................  92  58  91  57 /   0   0  30  40
Magdalena.......................  94  63  89  60 /   0   0  50  40
Datil...........................  91  60  88  55 /   0   0  40  40
Reserve.........................  98  54  96  53 /  10   5  50  40
Glenwood........................ 101  60  99  59 /  10  10  50  40
Chama...........................  86  47  82  46 /   0   5  60  20
Los Alamos......................  89  60  81  58 /  10   5  70  20
Pecos...........................  88  55  78  55 /  20  20  80  30
Cerro/Questa....................  87  52  81  51 /  30  30  90  30
Red River.......................  78  43  71  43 /  40  40  90  30
Angel Fire......................  80  39  73  38 /  40  30  90  20
Taos............................  92  52  83  49 /  20  20  80  20
Mora............................  83  49  73  48 /  40  20  80  30
Espanola........................  97  58  90  58 /   0  10  60  20
Santa Fe........................  92  60  83  58 /  10  20  80  30
Santa Fe Airport................  97  58  86  57 /   5  10  70  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  68  92  66 /   0  10  60  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  99  67  94  64 /   0   5  40  30
Albuquerque Valley.............. 102  66  96  63 /   0   5  40  30
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100  67  94  65 /   0   5  40  20
Belen........................... 102  63  96  61 /   0   5  30  30
Bernalillo...................... 101  65  95  63 /   0   5  50  20
Bosque Farms.................... 101  63  95  61 /   0   5  30  30
Corrales........................ 101  66  96  64 /   0   5  40  20
Los Lunas....................... 101  64  95  62 /   0   5  30  30
Placitas........................  96  65  90  62 /   0  10  50  20
Rio Rancho...................... 100  66  94  63 /   0   5  40  20
Socorro......................... 104  68  99  66 /   0   5  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  92  58  86  57 /   0  10  60  30
Tijeras.........................  93  60  86  59 /   0  10  60  30
Edgewood........................  93  56  84  55 /   0  10  60  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  55  84  54 /   0  10  60  20
Clines Corners..................  87  56  76  54 /  20  10  70  30
Mountainair.....................  93  57  84  55 /   0  10  60  30
Gran Quivira....................  93  58  83  56 /   5  10  60  30
Carrizozo.......................  97  65  89  62 /  10  10  60  40
Ruidoso.........................  90  58  79  56 /  20  10  70  30
Capulin.........................  81  52  71  50 /  50  70  80  20
Raton...........................  85  53  76  52 /  50  60  80  20
Springer........................  88  55  77  53 /  50  60  80  20
Las Vegas.......................  85  53  75  51 /  30  30  80  20
Clayton.........................  89  60  77  58 /  20  80  60  30
Roy.............................  85  57  74  55 /  30  60  60  30
Conchas.........................  93  62  82  61 /  20  50  60  40
Santa Rosa......................  91  60  79  60 /  20  30  60  40
Tucumcari.......................  90  60  80  58 /  20  60  50  40
Clovis..........................  94  65  84  62 /  20  30  50  60
Portales........................  96  65  86  63 /  20  30  50  70
Fort Sumner.....................  96  64  86  63 /  20  30  50  40
Roswell......................... 100  71  91  68 /  20  20  40  50
Picacho.........................  95  63  85  61 /  20  10  50  40
Elk.............................  95  61  83  59 /  20  10  60  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ201-207-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44