Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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504
FXUS65 KABQ 100529 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1029 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE WEST OF NM WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD...BUT REMAIN EASILY STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...PLUS LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS AND NO AVIATION HAZARDS OF ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANCE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...EXCEPT FOR
SOME BRIEF COOLING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY THANKS
TO A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUNNY DAYS AND STARRY NIGHTS PERSISTING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARMING CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
WARMEST DAYS THIS WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE ANOMALIES SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THANKS IN-PART TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
OUR FORECAST HIGH OF 76 DEGREES AT CLAYTON WEDNESDAY WOULD TIE
THE DAILY RECORD GOING BACK TO 1962 AND WILL COME WITHIN A DEGREE
OF THE RECORD AT TUCUMCARI. SPEAKING OF WARMTH...700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS...BY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...TO BETWEEN +7 AND +9C. SO
EXPECT SOME SNOWPACK MELT IN ADDITION TO SUBLIMATION FROM THE VERY
DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT-ODDS WITH THE SPECIFICS
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THEY AGREE ON A PATTERN
SHIFT WHICH INVOLVES A SOUTHWARD DIP OF THE JETSTREAM AND
TROUGHING IMPACTING THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STILL A
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL TO GET SOME MOISTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE VENTILATION RATES. MAINLY POOR VENT RATES
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
GRADUALLY WARM. BEST VENT RATES ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS WESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MINOR COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIDGE ALOFT
REBUILDS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY...AHEAD WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEATHER
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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