000
FXUS65 KABQ 241748 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1048 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDINESS WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH THIRD AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FCST AREA
CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT
ELIMINATE SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WELL...DESPITE THE THE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DUE TO SNOW MELT TODAY. OTHERWISE SOME LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES
CAN BE EXPECTED JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...933 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
INCREASED SKY COVERAGE TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA AS SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING FARTHER
NORTH THAN EXPECTED. ALSO ADJUSTED NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP
THE STATE AND DRAG HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO NO CHANGES THERE. WILL
SEND UPDATED PRODUCTS SOON.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
STILL TEMPERED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY SNOW ON THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. A BAJA LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAY BE IMPACTED MORE DIRECTLY TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BY ANOTHER BAJA LOW...BUT THIS TIME
COINCIDENT WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT UNDERWAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY AN AVERAGE 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
THE AREA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFICIENCY...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AN AVERAGE
5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND SNOW MELTS. OUR NUMBERS FOR LOCALES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW THE LOWEST OF THE
00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK TO NORMAL...
IF NOT ABOVE BY A FEW DEGREES...ON SUNDAY.

THE REX BLOCK UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
AND BY EARLY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH THE UPPER LOW WEST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THE UPPER HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE BAJA LOW AND A SLUG OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST BY THE 00/06Z GFS AND
NAM...WITH PWATS UP TO BETWEEN 0.60-0.75 INCH AT KABQ WHICH IS
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL AND THE
RECORD HIGH PWAT FOR THE MONTH. OUR POPS HAVE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR MON/TUE...BUT IF THE PWAT
FORECAST WORKS-OUT THEN POPS WILL TREND UP FURTHER. THIS WILL BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH VERY HIGH SNOW LEVELS AND IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WATCH THE MON/TUE
PERIOD CLOSELY FOR CHANGES AS THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER.

LOOK FOR A BREAK ON WED/THU IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BAJA LOW WHICH
COULD IMPACT OUR AREA THU NIGHT THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS IS STILL MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF THAN THE
ECMWF...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPSLOPE/FORCING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO
AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA AND WE`RE TALKING ABOUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL ERROR
AT THE DAY 7-8 RANGE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL TREND WARMER
WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A SWELLING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT
WILL BECOME POSITIONED NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE BAJA
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND FIELD OVER NM...LEADING TO POOR
VENTILATION TODAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY OVER EASTERN NM THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS SNOW MELT OCCURS...LEADING TO LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS. THUS...RH WILL BE WILDLY VARIABLE FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY HOLDING AT OR ABOVE 30-40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE IN MANY CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES DUE TO SNOW PACK. MORE
SEASONAL READINGS COULD BE IN REACH SUNDAY AS MORE SNOW MELTS.

BY MONDAY THE BAJA LOW COULD BEGIN TO SWING SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE
NORTHWARD NEAR NM. INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN WILL BREAK
OUT TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM SYSTEM WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVELS VERY HIGH...AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
FORESEEN AS DEWPOINTS/RH INCREASE. THE REMNANT ENERGY WILL DISPERSE
OVER NM INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW DOES THE SAME FARTHER WEST
IN CALIFORNIA.

A NOTEWORTHY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE STATE INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONT BACKS IN FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
INITIALLY BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THIS FRONTAL INTRUSION...AND
MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A SECOND VAST UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE BAJA. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STEER SOME
COPIOUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...OVERRUNNING THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS MODEL
REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS NM INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE BAJA LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS
INLAND TO THE MEXICAN MAINLAND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$