Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221808 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1208 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CYCLE. INITIALLY IMPACTING WESTERN/CENTRAL TERMINAL
SITES BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. MVFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
PRIMARILY IMPACT AEG/ABQ AND SAF. A ROUND OF SCATTERED TS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND COULD IMPACT GUP/FMN THUS
REDUCING CIGS TO NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A SHORTER DURATION. TS
WITH REDUCED CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TCC/ROW AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST SOME LOWER
CIG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS ARE MOST BULLISH
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS SUCH AS IMPACTS TO AEG/ABQ/SAF. WE DIDNT
INDICATE THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT TREND.

32/50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS COMING NORTH INTO NM EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS. THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH A DRIER DAY ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO GET A
FRESH BATCH OF MOISTURE COMING INTO THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE EUROPEAN
AND ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN MODEL SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE RAIN EVENT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL
AREAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TARGET OF THE RAIN TODAY...WITH A SHIFT
TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW THURSDAYS TOASTY HIGHS. THE TROUGH OVER
AZ WILL CROSS NM TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AIR TO WORK
INTO THE STATE WITH A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN CONVECTION. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE TO HEAD NORTH INTO NM SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION EACH DAY. THEN THE MODELS
GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS CONTINUES THE MOST PROGRESS AND WEAKEST WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE. IT SWINGS THROUGH NM MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND
AFTER THAT. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH SLOWER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN IS ESPECIALLY SLOW WITH A CLOSED LOW
OVER NV TUESDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY BUT DOES SLOW THE TROUGH DOWN AND NEARLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER CO NEXT WEDNESDAY. WILL AGAIN TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW AND KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
NM...ALLOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH IT. SHOWERS NOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME WETTING RAIN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS MAY ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MORNING
ACTIVITY SHIFT EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MORNING ACTIVITY...SHOULD ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PEAK HEATING AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. THUS MANY PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM SHOULD ALSO SEE WETTING RAINS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS...WHILE THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM DUE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. HUMIDITIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.

THE TROUGH WILL EXIT NM SATURDAY MORNING...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BEHIND IT. VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAYS READINGS.

THE GFS IS QUITE BULLISH AT BREAKING OUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...MEANWHILE...OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
PRETTY QUIET OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW STORMS...BUT OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY
WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THEY
WERE 24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS AT LEAST 24-36 HOURS
FASTER THAT THE ECMWF. THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A WEAK MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TAP MONDAY...AND THIS MAY BE WHAT THE GFS IS HINTING AT FOR
SUNDAY AS WELL. NONETHELESS...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY VS SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...
CONFIDENCE WANES CONSIDERABLY AS EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE. THE QUICKER PROGRESSION FROM THE GFS LEADS TO DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR COMING IN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND A BACK DOOR
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME. IN FACT THE ECMWF DOESNT BRING THE TROUGH
ACROSS FULLY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...BUT DOES MOVE IN A BACK DOOR FRONT
INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO VENTILATION CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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