000
FXUS65 KABQ 082146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW MEXICO TO SET THE
STAGE FOR A SUNNIER ENDING TO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT RETURNING
TO THE EAST BY MIDWEEK WILL DRAG DOWN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH CLEARING IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MISSHAPEN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN
SONORA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE. WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF WESTERN
COLORADO AN WESTERN NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT
FOR A SHIFT IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER FOCUS TO THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE AS THE LAST OF THE LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. CONTINUED LOSS OF SOLUTION COHERENCE FROM LATE WEEK ONWARD
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING PATTERN EVOLUTION AND FEATURE PLACEMENT.
HARMONIOUS START MAINTAINS BROAD TROUGH FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TO CLOSED LOW OVER SONORA ON
SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL EASE BACK INTO MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION ACROSS
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY MONDAY NIGHT FOR EVENTUAL SHEAR INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AS THE NEXT INBOUND PACIFIC SYSTEM COMES ASHORE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN STALL OUT IN POSITIVE TILT
FROM KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH REDUCED CONFIDENCE GOING FORWARD...MODELS
STRUGGLING TO SHEAR THIS TROUGH OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT BASIC TROUGH STRUCTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD SLOWLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFYING STRONGLY FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC...BUT MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS DEFINING WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING...AND THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE RIDGING.
TO ADD TO THE PROBLEM...EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PUSH
AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DOWN EASTERN LIMB OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
AND PENETRATE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THIS FEATURE BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS KEEPS HEIGHT FIELDS MUSHY WITH POOR
DEFINITION OF THE EXTENT OF ANY FEATURES...LEAVING A TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND FLOPPING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE INTO
POSITIVE TILT. UNDERLYING TUNE SINGING TROUGH OF SOME KIND...SHARP
AND COLD PER ECMWF...OR LESS DRAMATIC AND WARMER PER GFS...AS NEXT
WEEKEND UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE
RUNS...WILL KEEP FORECAST THINKING POINTED AT A BROADLY UNSETTLED
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND TO CAPTURE THE ESSENCE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT IN CLEARING SKIES...WITH THE
LAST OF THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS..AND OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER GILA REGION TAPERING OFF HEADING TOWARD
SUNDAY DAYBREAK.

FOR SUNDAY...PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUING WITH AXIS FROM
OKLAHOMA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SONORA. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK ABOVE EARLY MARCH NORMALS FOR THE NORTH...WITH
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL READINGS FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTH. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

FOR MONDAY...PERSISTENT RIDGE BEGINNING GRADUAL RETURN TO
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION...AS UPSTREAM POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE CORE
FLOPS EAST AND SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER ROUND OF WARMING
WILL RETURN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE MID MARCH
NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON WEST BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS...EASTERN SLOPES...AND NEARBY EASTERN
PLAINS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. BREEZES MAY COMBINE WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES IN SPOTS ACROSS TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE SOUTHWARD AND SHEAR EASTWARD AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES NUDGES
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. COOLER AIR WORKING IN AHEAD
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL REVERSE WARMING TRENDS...AND LEAVE MUCH OF
THE STATE WITHIN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OF MID MARCH NORMALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HIGH COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS
TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY
TUESDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS THIS ROUND...BUT THIS
WILL BE WATCHED FOR TRENDS. TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL RUN CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...AND SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SOME UP SLOPE
HELP TO INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
DRAPED FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND THE OWENS VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY SWING
BACK INTO A MERIDIONAL ASPECT AND WILL SHEAR EASTWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO BY FRIDAY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHOWER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERN AND WESTERN DISTRIBUTION THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND REDUCING COVERAGE TO
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM THROUGH
FRIDAY TO NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE. GENERALLY MODEST WIND
SPEEDS IN A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL BE LOCALIZED AND CONTAIN A SMALL
FOOTPRINT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL LESSEN QUICKLY
AS THE SUN SETS. CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSIONS BEGINS ITS PUSH OVER THE AREA. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG AND DISTINCT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION OVER ARIZONA AND UTAH. THIS INTRUSION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY PROVIDE AFFECTS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS INTRUSION
WILL PROVIDE LOWERING RH VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO RISE. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF SUNDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY. CRITICALLY
LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES TO THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS ON
MONDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. ANTICIPATE POOR RH RECOVERIES ALONG THE MID SLOPES MONDAY
MORNING. LOWERED DEW POINT VALUES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE SO WE SHALL
SEE. MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
TREND UP ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME. ABOVE NORMAL
MIXING EXPECTED TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION WILL
CERTAINLY LOWER ON SUNDAY DUE TO RIDGING BUT WILL REBOUND ON MONDAY
AS THE TRANSPORT WIND VALUES INCREASE. BREEZIER SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA MONDAY. LOOKING AT QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAINES VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 5
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS BOTH DAYS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE EAST.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EVEN MORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. CANT RULE OUT SOME MTN WAVE ACTION ALONG AND TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. LATEST GFS MODEL SHOWS OVER 50 MPH WIND
SPEEDS AT 10000 FEET TUESDAY MORNING. NAM MODEL HAS NEAR 40 MPH WIND
SPEEDS SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL COME FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LOOK FOR SOME
COOLING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY TUESDAY. LESS THAN 15 PCT RH VALUES ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE. DID INCREASE SPEEDS SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST. CAN SEE SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. CLOUD COVER DOESNT APPEAR
TO BE EXCESSIVE...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT MODELS COULD TREND A LITTLE MORE BULLISH FOR THICKER CIRRUS
AS WE GET NEARER TO THE EVENT. VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE EXCELLENT
TUESDAY.

STILL LOOKING AT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY. IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE WITH THE FRONT. MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT ON HOW THE
UPPER WAVE SHEARS APART OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES SO DONT
HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOWER. DUE TO THIS
ISSUE WITH THE MODELS...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE UNCERTAIN.
HOPE TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE IN THE COMING DAYS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION HAZARDS WILL SHIFT IN FOCUS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE MAIN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
SLIDE OVER THESE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS AND PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING
ABQ/AEG/SAF AND GUP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. SOME VARIABLE WIND GUSTS/DIRECTIONS AND MODERATELY
LOW CLOUDS WOULD IMPACT THESE SITES. THINKING MORE MTN TOP OBSCD
THAN MVFR BUT CANT RULE OUT MVFR AT GUP FOR SHORT DURATIONS.
CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH MVFR CIGS.
CIGS WILL RAISE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES OVER ALL
TERMINAL SITES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. PERHAPS SOME DYING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
EVENING.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  26  60  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  19  55  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  22  55  26  59 /  10   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  20  59  21  65 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  19  55  21  63 /  10   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  19  58  22  67 /   5   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  22  59  26  64 /  10   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  28  63  30  69 /  20   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  14  49  18  51 /   5   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  25  56  30  60 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  23  55  30  61 /  10   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  15  55  20  60 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  18  47  20  50 /   5   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  16  52  22  57 /  10   0   0   0
TAOS............................  17  57  22  63 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  20  56  27  62 /  10   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  25  61  27  65 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  24  56  29  61 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  26  59  30  65 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  29  59  33  65 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  33  60  36  67 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  62  32  69 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  61  34  68 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  32  64  34  70 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  32  61  36  68 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  33  62  36  71 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  27  56  31  62 /   5   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  27  58  32  64 /   5   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  24  58  29  65 /   5   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  26  57  32  66 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  26  57  33  66 /   5   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  57  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  29  50  36  62 /  10   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  19  60  27  68 /   5   0   0   5
RATON...........................  20  64  26  71 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  21  64  28  71 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  21  60  31  69 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  27  63  36  75 /   5   0   0   0
ROY.............................  25  61  35  72 /   5   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  27  64  35  75 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  28  64  35  75 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  28  65  34  77 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  29  62  33  73 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  29  63  33  74 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  30  63  33  75 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  32  62  32  75 /   5   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  29  59  35  71 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  28  52  33  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY