Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 300545 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1045 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
There remains a possibility of some patchy low clouds or fog to
develop across northern and western NM thanks to the snow.
However, dry air moving into the area will mitigate the
development somewhat. Best chances for low clouds/fog will be
across the northern mtns, including KAXX. Lesser chances near KFMN
and KGUP. N to NWly winds across northeast NM behind a weak wind
shift will become southwesterly by daybreak. On Wed aftn, a belt
of stronger westerly winds will develop from the central mtns and
KCQC eastward toward KTCC and KCVS. Gusts near 25-30kt will be
.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016...
Snow will exit the area after sunset. Very cold air will filter
into the region with near zero readings north and west. Teens and
20`s are expected for the south and east. Wednesday and Thursday
will feature a slow warming and drying trend but temperatures will
still be below normal. Another cold front will arrive Friday with
snow possible across southern areas through Saturday.
Upper low center over eastern NM will continue pulling away from
the area this evening. Wrap around terrain dominated snows across
central and western NM will bring another inch or two til sunset
then taper off thru midnight. Convective rain/snow/graupel showers
across the east will dissipate quickly aft sunset. Strong surface
high pressure with clearing skies and very dry air on top of snow
pack will allow for the coldest air of the season.
Wednesday thru Thursday will feature a brief warming trend but
temps will still remain 5 to 15F blw normal. The plains will see
the greatest warming with downslope breezes increasing Thursday.
Overnight lows will remain cold both nights.
Confidence Friday thru the weekend is increasing slightly. A back
door front will slide SW across the plains and thru gaps in the
central mt chain. Meanwhile, an upper trough with two vort lobes
will approach from the NW. One piece of energy may focus SN over
the San Juans Friday night while the other digs well south and
west of NM into northern MX. This wave will attempt to shift east
and spread RA/SN over southern NM thru Saturday.
There may be a few lingering showers in the northern mountains
tonight as an upper level low pressure system exits eastward from
the state, but little or no additional snow accumulation is
In the wake of the upper low, dry northwest flow aloft will
gradually become more zonal as a new upper level trough deepens over
the western states. High temperatures will vary from a few to around
15 degrees below normal Wednesday through Sunday. The deepening
trough over the western US will form a closed low west of NM on
Friday, when it will also begin drawing a moist return flow
northwestward over the state. The moisture should be enough to
trigger a wintry mix of precipitation that may persist through
Saturday across the southeast half of the fire weather forecast
area. The operational GFS and ECMWF runs now agree that the upper
low will drop southward to the southern Gulf of California through
Saturday night, before exiting eastward across northern Mexico into
Texas Sunday through Monday. This track should relegate any wetting
precipitation to the central mountains of the forecast area and
eastward across the east central plains this weekend.
Along with the cool temperatures, vent rates will trend downward
through mid week with widespread poor ventilation expected Thursday
through the weekend. An exception will be Friday across central and
eastern areas, where there will be ventilation improvement as the
moist return flow initially barrels in from the southeast.