Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191128 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
428 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A strong cold front will approach today and move east across the
state tonight, with areas of snow developing across northern and
western New Mexico. The main aviation weather-related impact today
will be strong winds and mountain wind wave activity. The strongest
gusts are forecast at KLVS, where speeds could exceed 50kts. MVFR
conditions are currently being reported in light rain at KGUP, but
mostly VFR conditions are forecast today. Deterioration in snow is
likely overnight at KGUP, then later at KSAF, KAEG and possibly KABQ
early Tuesday morning. Some mountain obscurations are likely today,
but more widespread mountain obscurations are expected overnight.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...403 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous low pressure system will move southward across the Great
Basin today and tonight. Ahead of the system strong winds will
develop across much of New Mexico today and will continue tonight as
a Pacific cold front moves across the state. Rain and elevation snow
across western and central New Mexico today will change to all snow
late tonight. Precipitation will diminish Tuesday, as the low weakens
and moves east of the region. Another system will move from central
California and across northern Arizona Wednesday night and Thursday,
bringing additional rain and elevation snow to northern New Mexico.
High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be below normal.
Another storm system will move across northern AZ Friday with
additional precipitation expected for northern New Mexico Friday
through Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A very cold upper low in the northern Great Basin this morning will
move southeastward today and tonight. Moisture ahead of the system
will move into western and northern NM today with rain and elevation
snow increasing during the day. The higher precipitation amounts will
occur on the west-facing slopes of the western and northwest
mountains. Mid level winds ahead of this storm system will range from
45 to 60 knots at 10K feet. These winds will create high wind warning
criteria winds in the higher elevations of western NM and along the
central mountains and adjacent high plains. The combination of snow
and high winds in the northwest mountains and adjacent western
highlands will create winter storm conditions today and tonight. A
Pacific cold front will move into western NM early this evening and
race eastward across the state. A band of enhanced snowfall is
expected tonight along the cold front. Much colder air behind the
front will settle across NM Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures
well below normal.

Two storm systems will move out of the Great Basin and across
northern NM Wednesday night and Thursday and again Friday through
Saturday morning with additional rain and snow expected across
northern NM. West flow aloft will bring drier weather to the region
Sunday and Monday with temperatures moderating to near normal by
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong winds are forecast to overtake the forecast area today ahead
of a potent upper level trough and associated cold front , with
advisories and warnings in effect. Humidity is not forecast to meet
critical threshold, but a few hours of elevated fire weather
conditions are expected across far eastern portions of the east
central and northeast plains this afternoon. Chances for wetting
precipitation will ramp-up today into tonight ahead of and
immediately behind the cold front, favoring the western and northern
high terrain. In particular, the higher terrain of the northern
mountains may see snow amounts in excess of one foot. Much colder air
will follow into Tuesday and continue through Wednesday with below to
well below normal temperatures expected. Vent rates will be a mixed-
bag Wednesday, with some poor ventilation expected across the far
eastern plains behind the backdoor segment of the cold front.

A shortwave trough will approach Wednesday night and interact with
increasing Pacific moisture to produce another round of accumulating
snow going into Thursday over northwest and north central New Mexico.
Another potent upper level trough/low will approach Friday, with
winds increasing across the area. A few hours of elevated fire
weather conditions are likely across the eastern plains Friday
afternoon. Chances for wetting precipitation will ramp-up again
Friday night as the trough moves overhead. The potential for elevated
fire weather conditions will return to the eastern plains by Sunday
thanks to dry westerly flow and a deepening lee side low.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
the following zones... NMZ521-523-524-527>529-531>533.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening for
the following zones... NMZ501-507-518>520-522-525-530-534>539.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening
for the following zones... NMZ505-506-512.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ503-504-508-510-511.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Tuesday
for the following zones... NMZ512>514.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ502-513-514.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following zones...
NMZ515.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM MST Tuesday for
the following zones... NMZ526-540.

&&

$$

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