Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 120037 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017


High clouds will continue to stream across southern portions of the
area before diminishing late tonight and early Tuesday. A back door
front moved through the plains today and may weakly spill into the
Rio Grande Valley this evening. The easterly gap winds may battle the
northerly drainage winds for a time, so winds may be northeasterly
overall. Regardless, it will be light. However, the drainage wind is
expected to take over at KSAF around sunrise until around 18z or so
with gusts near 20kt possible.



.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017...
A stagnant upper level pattern continues over the western U.S.
and this will keep relatively warm and dry conditions over New
Mexico through Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak cold front will slide
into New Mexico, setting temperatures back closer to average in the
eastern half of the state on Thursday, but no precipitation is
expected to accompany this dry front. Temperatures will rebound above
normal Friday and through the upcoming weekend with mostly dry and
fairly tranquil conditions persisting.


A Rex block (high north of low) remains in place over the western
ConUS today, and this setup should hold through Tuesday before
evolving some into Wednesday. For tonight, diffluent upper flow
associated with the low over the Baja peninsula will keep some high
clouds, mostly over the southern half of NM. Despite these high
clouds, radiational cooling should be quite effective tonight with
very low dewpoints in place, and this should yield chilly minimum
temperatures tonight into Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, little movement with the upper high over NV is expected,
perhaps just a slight nudge westward while the low stays intact over
the Baja. This will keep the dry and stagnant airmass in place over
NM with temperatures exceeding seasonal averages by 5 to 15 degrees.

Into Tuesday night and Wednesday, the NV high moves westward and
offshore of CA while the Baja low compensates by moving inland over
the Sonora desert of Old Mexico/AZ. Meanwhile the northwesterly flow
over the Great Plains and the northern Rockies will start to sag
toward NM. This will steer down an embedded disturbance aloft along
with an associated cold front. The front will enter the eastern half
of NM before the end of the day Wednesday, but will likely be
ineffective at reducing daytime high temperatures much, so another
day of above average warmth is expected. The winds will shift in
direction in the eastern half of the state first, along with some
gusts during the passage of the surface boundary.

Temperatures will run cooler into the day Thursday, but will still be
within a few degrees of seasonal averages over the eastern half of
NM. Winds will have settled across the state by Thursday afternoon,
and minimal cloud cover is expected. This cool-down will be short-
lived with temperatures rebounding above normal across the forecast
area on Friday as the surface winds take on more of a southwesterly
to westerly component due to lee-side surface troughing.

Into Saturday, the low over Old Mexico will jog back southwestward to
the Baja peninsula, allowing stiffer northwesterly flow aloft to
creep its way back closer to NM. This will usher cooler air aloft
closer to the state amidst a short wave trough and another surface
boundary will also accompany. For now, the forecast high temperatures
will stay above normal with no precipitation expected. The GFS model
does indicate a slug of light precipitation Saturday night over far
northeastern NM, but confidence is too low in this scenario to add it
to the forecast at this point. Even with the surface boundary
arriving Saturday/Saturday night, the highs on Sunday are still
forecast to be well above average.



A weak back door cold front is moving south across the east central
plains this afternoon, but has little impact on our weather other
than a wind shift to the northeast. Dewpoints are below zero behind
the front with relative humidities below 10 percent. The front will
seep into the Rio Grande Valley tonight with weak east winds in ABQ.

The sprawling high pressure ridge over the western U.S. will flatten
a little Tuesday while the closed low lingers over Baja, CA. Weak
flow aloft will mean light surface winds and widespread poor
ventilation. While high temperatures will be a little cooler in the
east, they will still be above normal.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will shift west off the coast
Wednesday as a short wave trough drops southeast from the northern
Rockies. An associated back door cold front will reach northeast NM
Wednesday, but highs will generally be higher than Tuesday. The
front will proceed south and west Wednesday night with a cooler day
on tap for all areas by Thursday. This will be the coolest day of
the next seven for most places, but only lowering to near normal for
mid December. A majority of the area will remain in poor ventilation.

Friday and Saturday will remain dry with above normal temperatures
returning everywhere. Winds will be on the increase ahead of a
stronger short wave trough. This feature will reach the Pacific
Northwest Friday and plunge southeast Saturday into the central
Rockies. A surface cold front could reach the northeast before the
end of Saturday. Sunday will then turn cooler at most places, but
amazingly still above normal. Still no precipitation is forecast
over the weekend, although the GFS hints at light QPF over the
northeast Saturday night. Ventilation will improve a little Friday
and especially Saturday with the increased winds and slightly higher
mixing heights.





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