Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 240010 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
610 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SLUGGISH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT STRADDLING THE UT/CO LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THIS FCST PERIOD. SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NW 1/4 OF NM...WITH
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AS FAR AS AS THE UPPER GILA REGION. KFMN AND
KGUP TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IMPACTS TONIGHT BUT ANY
MVFR INCURSIONS WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. A HIGH MTN TOP
OBSCURATION MAY ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THE NM/CO LINE AS SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 8500 FEET AFTER 06Z.
MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THE EASTERN PLAINS
BUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO INCLUDE KROW.
INCLUDED PLACEHOLDER AT ROSWELL FOR NOW. GOING INTO
SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...WITH GUSTY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KSAF AND ABQ AREA TERMINALS.  KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES. THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO SHOULD ACCUMULATE UP TO
A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A FEW
INCHES OF VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATING PRECIP
WILL BE SPOTTY. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY THREE
WEEKS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TUESDAY CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NEAR NORMAL AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SHOULD BE RELEGATED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. THEN...THEY SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN US
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL CROSS NM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WARMER TEMPS.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE STARTING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY PASSES FROM UT TO WESTERN CO. MEANWHILE...A
SECONDARY LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CA
COAST...BEFORE EJECTING INLAND TOWARD NM SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE PHASING WITH THE BROADER UPPER
LOW EXITING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...FINALLY
CROSSING NM AS A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
COMPARED TO THE SYSTEMS THAT HAVE CROSSED RECENTLY.

WETTER WEATHER IS LIKELY CENTRAL AND EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FROM THE
WEST. THE SLOW MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW A HEALTHY RETURN FLOW OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO REACH NM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TARGETING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN CONVECTION TO THE
SAME AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SUMMER LIKE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD TRAP SOME MOISTURE UNDER IT KEEPING
DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...LONG RANGE
PROGS SUGGEST THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY TRY TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE
AGAIN IN EARLY JUNE.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW DRYLINE STORMS MAY IMPACT FOR NE AND EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOCUS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NW THIRD REST OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
ARE GETTING MORE BULLISH FOR WETTING RAIN RESULTS ACROSS THIS AREA.
BASICALLY A LONG DURATION EVENT THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE EXPANDING SOUTH/EASTWARD. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY ALL AREAS. STILL EXPECTING
SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY BUT A BIT LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY. DONT
RULE OUT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND PERHAPS SOME HIGHER MTN SNOW WILL REMAIN
ON MONDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH FINISHES ITS SLOW SWEEP OVER THE
ROCKIES REGION. THIS MEANS HIGHER RH AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
UNSEASONABLY HIGH RH VALUES BY THIS POINT. CONTINUED BREEZINESS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NOT TOO STRONG. SOME WETTING
POSSIBILITIES FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHLANDS BUT
SUSPECT FOR THE LOWLANDS AS WELL. LINGERING IMPACTS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS DEPICTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEAKNESS OR TROUGH. EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON THIS DAY ALTHOUGH STILL CAN RULE OUT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. WIND FLOW LOOKS TO BE WEAKER DUE
TO THE RIDGE. AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON THIS DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASED WETTING CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN FOCUS WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF THANKS TO DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWER RH WOULD BE FOUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO. TEMPS WOULD SLOWLY COOL WITH MAIN
FOCUS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
AFTERNOON TEEN RH VALUES SHOULD BE FOUND ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF
THE DIVIDE AND PROBABLY LOWLAND PORTIONS OF SOCORRO COUNTY ALTHOUGH
THIS PATTERN IS NOTORIOUS FOR PUSHING HIGHER DEWPOINTS OR RH VALUES
WESTWARD FURTHER THAN THE MODELS THINK. MAINLY DUE TO DAILY ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETROGRADING THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...RH FORECASTING IS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC
FOR CENTRAL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AN
ACTIVE DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL AREAS WHILE LOW
CHANCES EXIST FOR AN ORGANIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH EVENT.

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&&

.AVIATION...


50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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