Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 272143
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...THEN WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BOARDER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA RESULTS IN
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR FLASH FLOODING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE. RICH MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTHERN...CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN READINGS WILL
COOL BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED EACH DAY
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER SHOULD FUNNEL SOME DRIER AIR INTO NW AND W
CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...IT WILL ALSO SEND
THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
AROUND MID WEEK. PWATS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHER READINGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND READINGS CLOSER TO AN INCH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

MOISTURE WILL THEN RECYCLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRADDLES THE AREA FROM NV TO
WESTERN TX. PWATS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY PERSIST IN
THE 1 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EACH
DAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS DEPICT A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MAY TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ SATURDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS UT
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND EASTWARD ACROSS CO SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE
IN DECIDING THE LOCATIONS FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FASTER MOVING STORMS AND LESSER COVERAGE TODAY IS LEADING TO SMALLER
RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS. A COUPLE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR
OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS NUDGED INTO WESTERN NM AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PCT AGAIN TUESDAY
WITH ONLY FAIR RECOVERIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT WILL EDGE INTO NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS FROM THE SANGRES
EASTWARD. TEMPS WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL FOR THE
EAST. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR BEING A
VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND
BURN AREAS WITHIN NORTHERN NM. THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER NM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...COOLER TEMPS...POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES...AND LOWER HAINES.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CLOUDS ARE BUILDING EARLY TODAY AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NM AND THIS WILL GIVE A HEAD START TO STORM COVERAGE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT
15KTS...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN SUNDAY. A STRONGER FORCING
MECHANISM TODAY WILL HELP FAVOR A BROKEN LINE SEGMENT ALONG THE
CONT DVD TO MOVE EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BTWN 22-01Z.
LCL HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AGAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM ANY DIRECT HITS.
OTHER MORE SPOTTY -SHRA/TSRA ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE E PLAINS
THRU EARLY EVENING.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  91  57  92 /   0   5   0  10
DULCE...........................  49  85  50  84 /   5   5   5  50
CUBA............................  50  84  53  78 /   5  20  20  60
GALLUP..........................  53  89  54  88 /   0   5   5  30
EL MORRO........................  52  84  53  81 /   5   5  10  60
GRANTS..........................  55  87  56  83 /   5   5  10  50
QUEMADO.........................  56  83  57  81 /  10  20  20  60
GLENWOOD........................  58  86  57  86 /  10  30  30  60
CHAMA...........................  47  77  50  75 /   5  10  10  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  85  60  77 /  20  40  20  70
PECOS...........................  57  83  56  74 /  30  50  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  77  53  72 /  20  40  10  70
RED RIVER.......................  49  66  46  61 /  30  60  30  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  52  70  48  63 /  30  70  50  80
TAOS............................  52  84  54  76 /  10  10  10  60
MORA............................  54  80  53  70 /  30  60  60  80
ESPANOLA........................  58  90  59  82 /  10  10  10  50
SANTA FE........................  60  84  60  76 /  20  30  20  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  89  62  80 /  10  20  20  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  93  65  84 /  10  30  20  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  93  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  96  67  89 /  10  10  10  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  99  66  90 /  10  10  10  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  94  66  88 /  10  10  10  50
RIO RANCHO......................  65  97  64  88 /  10  10  10  50
SOCORRO.........................  65  95  65  92 /  20  20  20  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  87  59  81 /  20  40  30  70
TIJERAS.........................  60  90  60  83 /  20  40  30  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  89  56  82 /  30  20  30  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  84  57  78 /  30  30  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  86  58  82 /  30  20  40  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  90  64  87 /  30  30  40  40
RUIDOSO.........................  60  79  58  77 /  50  60  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  60  80  57  69 /  30  50  60  80
RATON...........................  57  86  56  74 /  30  40  30  70
SPRINGER........................  58  88  54  75 /  30  70  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  85  54  75 /  30  40  40  70
CLAYTON.........................  65  89  62  81 /  20  20  50  60
ROY.............................  62  88  59  76 /  30  60  60  60
CONCHAS.........................  68  96  65  86 /  20  30  50  40
SANTA ROSA......................  67  95  66  88 /  30  20  40  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  98  66  88 /  10  20  50  30
CLOVIS..........................  68  94  64  88 /  20  10  20  20
PORTALES........................  71  96  66  90 /  20  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  97  67  90 /  10  20  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  71  98  70  94 /  10  10  20  10
PICACHO.........................  65  93  62  89 /  30  20  20  20
ELK.............................  64  85  60  82 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44


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