Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 160526
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1126 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SFC LEE TROF WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THRU 16/12Z. UPPER DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH
NORTH CENTRAL NM FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES THEREAFTER WITH INCREASING
AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH INTO NE NM AFT 16/18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS ALG RATON RIDGE BECOMING
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT -SHRASN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND OVERNIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AFTER A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARMER SYSTEM WILL PASS MORE DIRECTLY
OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY THEN PERSIST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STRONG MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW TO 15 DEGREES OVER
LAST NIGHTS READINGS...SINCE THE COLDER AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED
YESTERDAY HAS MODIFIED...A LEE TROUGH IS INDUCING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS OUR FIRST
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHEAST AREAS FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE
SANGRES. MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 6500
FEET ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000
FEET. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON
PASS. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD VARY FROM A FEW TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN REBOUND AND
VARY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMER SYSTEM
CROSSING FROM THE WEST. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...AND A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY CREATE A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...CAPE REMAINS LIMITED BUT
MODEL LIFTED INDICES IN THE -1 TO -3 RANGE ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS THE EAST.

MODELS ARE PAINTING A MUDDLED PICTURE AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
EXITS EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT. THEY
DO SEEM TO AGREE ON SOME LINGERING SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THOSE SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS
WET AS THE STORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.  A COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND WINDS IN EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS REACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AND
MODELS WITH LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS MEETING RH AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW.

COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHIFTS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE
SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO AROUND THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL LIMIT THE WESTERLY
WIND STRENGTH AND DURATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
COLD FRONT PUSHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.  A COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR WEST THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
AID IN GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG RANGE MODELS FORECAST AN SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW MOVES GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WITH THIS SUBTROPICAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE OUR CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CHANCES FOR DRY LIGHTNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ALSO INCREASING
WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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