Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 210912
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  69  44  70  41 /  20  20   5   0
DULCE...........................  63  36  67  31 /  40  50  20   0
CUBA............................  63  40  67  36 /  30  40  30   0
GALLUP..........................  67  37  69  34 /  30  30   5   0
EL MORRO........................  62  35  65  33 /  40  40  10   0
GRANTS..........................  66  39  69  34 /  30  30  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  40  65  38 /  40  30  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  39  73  41 /  20  20  10   0
CHAMA...........................  60  32  64  28 /  40  50  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  44  64  43 /  30  40  30   5
PECOS...........................  58  41  63  40 /  40  40  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  36  66  31 /  30  30  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  53  38  56  36 /  50  40  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  31  61  27 /  40  40  30  10
TAOS............................  63  37  66  32 /  30  30  10   5
MORA............................  60  39  65  38 /  40  40  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  67  45  71  43 /  20  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  61  43  66  42 /  30  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  44  69  42 /  30  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  48  69  45 /  30  30  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  50  71  49 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  46  73  45 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  69  50  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  69  46  73  44 /  20  30  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  69  49  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  70  47  74  47 /  30  30  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  62  40  67  39 /  30  40  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  63  39  68  38 /  30  40  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  66  37  70  34 /  40  40  30   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  41  67  42 /  40  40  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  44  66  44 /  30  30  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  45  69  44 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  62  41  66  45 /  50  30  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  66  44  67  41 /  30  20  20  10
RATON...........................  69  42  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
SPRINGER........................  68  43  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  40  68  40 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  72  49  72  49 /  10  10  20  10
ROY.............................  66  47  69  44 /  20  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  72  51  76  49 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  69  50  73  50 /  20  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  51  75  49 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  70  51  69  50 /  20  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  70  52  69  49 /  20  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  51  71  50 /  20  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  52  71  50 /  40  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  63  47  67  47 /  40  30  30  10
ELK.............................  59  46  63  46 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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