Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 210524 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1124 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
Southwest flow aloft will increase somewhat across New Mexico
late tonight as an upper level ridge translates eastward over the
southern plains. Resulting lee side surface trough will lead to
moderate south and southwest winds once again Saturday from mid
to late morning through mid evening. Moist sely low level flow
into sern NM may develop shallow IFR cigs near and east of KROW
after 10Z. This moisture will get scoured out rapidly by
increasing southwest winds around 16Z Saturday. Winds will slowly
subside after sunset.
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016...
Overall, a mostly dry week look to be on tap. A slight chance of
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and
evening near the Texas border, but thereafter, dry conditions will
be the rule through at least mid week next week. Instead, breezy
to windy conditions will dominate the weather across the Land of
Enchantment. Temperatures will generally stay just shy of normal
across the west, with near to just above normal conditions across
central and eastern areas.
As promised, winds increased and convection decreased today. In
fact, there has yet to be a shower. GFS still shows some light
activity across the northern mountains this evening, but cu look
pretty flat up there as of this writing.
The dryline will retreat into eastern NM overnight. It will make it
to at least the Pecos River Valley in EC and SE NM but perhaps
farther. Less of a retreat is expected across the NE due to the sfc
low position. The question remains how far east it will mix back out
on Saturday afternoon. It tends to retreat farther than models
suggest so still think it will set up just west of the Texas border
late in the afternoon. Expect a few strong to severe storms to
develop along and east of the dryline in the late afternoon. The
best instability looks to be across west Texas, but certainly could
see storm initiation in NM. Elsewhere, the dryslot will push through
the area and breezy to windy conditions will be the rule.
The dryline will again slosh back westward Saturday night, but the
mid level dry slot will push through the remainder of the state on
Sunday afternoon. Therefore, Sunday continues to look dry with
breezy to windy conditions.
The long wave trough over the NW ConUS will persist through the
middle part of next week. Weak shortwaves will rotate through it and
should keep at least western areas just shy of normal for
temperatures through the week. Central and eastern areas will remain
near or just above normal. Precipitation is not expected Monday
through Wednesday at least, as the dry slot remains over NM. Breezy
to windy southwest winds will be a feature each day.
GFS has backed off on a stronger shortwave cross northern NM on
Thursday, but the ECMWF continues to show a weakly closed low
crossing northern NM, and thus bringing slightly better chances of
precipitation. Stay tuned.
A nearly stationary upper level trough has settled into the western
U.S. and will be the primary driver of the weather for the next week
or so. As a result, significantly warmer, drier, and windier weather
has arrived across NM today.
Humidity recoveries tonight will still be regulated by soil moisture
release into the boundary layer, but will trend downward through the
weekend. The exception will be the eastern plains tonight and Saturday
night where a dryline sloshes westward across the area. A few storms
may fire along the TX state line in the afternoons but model trends
continue to push farther east on each run.
Min humidity values Saturday and Sunday will trend even lower than
today with lots of 10 to 15%. Windy conditions will impact much of
the area on Saturday with breezy to locally windy conditions Sunday.
Widespread haines of 4 and 5 will be common, with patchy 6 values
within the Rio Grande Valley and northeast plains over the weekend.
Temps will average near to slightly below normal. The weather portion
of the critical fire element will be there for much of the area along
and east of the central mt chain over the weekend. However, recent
moisture and green up will mitigate fire potential so no red flags
will be issued.
No change is expected Monday through Saturday with widespread breezy
to windy conditions. Min humidity will trend into the single digits
to teens range while temperatures average slightly below normal. Just
about every day next week has critical fire weather ingredients with
several unstable days of 6 haines. Recoveries also do not look very
good so conditions will dry out each afternoon until the gains from
this week are essentially erased.