Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 151201 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS INDICATE WDSPR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS UNTIL MID DAY...WITH
PATCHES LINGERING INTO THE EARLY AFTN ALONG AND E OF THE PECOS RIVER AND
SOUTH OF I-40. AN EXCEPTION SHOULD BE THE NE HIGHLANDS INCLUDING
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AT BAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH A NE WIND SHIFT...THEN INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WITH A GUSTY E CANYON WIND TONIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY WILL FAVOR THE MTS...BUT MONSOON MOISTURE RIDING OVER
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD SPREAD SCT STORMS TO A WIDER AREA
TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ALSO LOOK TO
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE THIS WEEK. MOST MODELS NOW BRINGING THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE INTO NM LATER THIS WEEK. BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS WE HAVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE EAST
TODAY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE OVER NM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT OVER NEARLY
ALL OF NM. OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
BE THE AREAS WITH THE MOST RAIN AND GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TX COAST WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BACK DOOR FRONT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM TODAY AND
SQUEEZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM MEXICO. THESE TWO WEATHER MAKERS WILL
HELP PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MOST FAVORED TODAY WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE CHURNING NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...RIGHT UP BAJA CA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE WEST
INTO MEXICO TUESDAY...WITH THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING
OVER NM. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NM WITH AN ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

ODILE WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER NM AND SUPPRESS THE
NORTHWARD SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND THE WHITEWATER...BALDY BURN SCAR
COMPLEX...AS ODILES TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST AZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND OVER NM THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ODILES DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE FULLY OVER THE STATE WITH A SIGNIFICANT...POSSIBLY
MAJOR...RAIN EVENT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR GILA REGION AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO NORTHEAST.

WHATS LEFT OF ODILE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE FRIDAY BUT
MOISTURE WILL LINGER WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERS TOMS OVER
ALL AREAS. A CLOSED LOW WILL STALL TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE MOISTURE TO THE EAST. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS THIS WEEKEND.
THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ABSORBING ANY
MORE WATER WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET PATTERN EVOLVING FOR NEW MEXICO AS MODELS TRY TO GET A HANDLE
ON A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...HURRICANE ODILE...AND A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD HEAD THIS WAY
FROM THE PACIFIC. THE 7 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER DEPICTS WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH SOUTH OF I-40 AND IN THE NW MOUNTAINS...NEAR
TWO INCHES IN THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND LOWER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS FIRE SLOWING
PATTERN SHOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING...
WIND SHIFTS WITH TODAY AND SATURDAYS COLD FRONTS...AND GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST FRONT WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TODAY AND ALL THE WAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT.
IT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT THE
SE PLAINS WHERE HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THAT WAS THERE YESTERDAY. EAST CANYON WIND GUSTS IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD REACH NEAR 25 MPH FOR A TIME TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A PLUME OF MONSOON
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST COULD CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE HURRICANE. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE INTENSE AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...THEN SPREAD WETTER QPF
FIELDS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
REMNANT UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH THAT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY AGREEING BETTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN...THOUGH THE STORMS TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE BAJA IS A BIT
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE ANTICIPATING.

A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE HURRICANE REMNANTS ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST
AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...OR REMAINS STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST AS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. EITHER WAY THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE PROGGING ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...AND INTO AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS COMBINATION OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD KEEP WETTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...UNLESS THE UPPER LOW IS TOO FAR WEST AND FUNNELS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE OVER AZ. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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