Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 202347 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
547 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
North to northwest flow aloft over New Mexico on east side of Four
Corners high centered over east-central AZ and west-central NM.
Isold tstms will continue until around 20/04Z across the southwest
mountains and eastern plains. A few of the storms will contain brief
MVFR cigs/vsbys obscg mt tops and wind gusts to around 45kt as well
as hail. Potential for lcl MVFR cigs over the eastern plains aft
08Z. Storms will be mainly confined to the central mtn chain ewd
Wednesday as dry air filters into southwest NM.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot temperatures will persist through at least Thursday across
the Land of Enchantment. A few storms will be possible each afternoon
and evening, which may produce gusty winds and small hail. Some
relief to the heat is expected on Friday, mainly across eastern New
Mexico as a cold front slides through the plains and westward into
the Rio Grande Valley. Moisture associated with the front will
enhance thunderstorm chances Friday through at least the weekend. The
thunderstorm activity should keep the triple digit heat at bay for
at least through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Hot temperatures will remain the rule for the next few days as a
597dam high parks over the AZ/NM border. Dewpoints were up in the
50s this morning here at ABQ, but have since dropped to 17 with 5%
RH. This has been the case across much of the RGV and points
westward to the ContDvd, which allowed temperatures to soar.
Temperatures will near records across much of central and western NM
through at least Thursday, if not Friday. Will expand the Heat
Advisory on Wednesday to include Espanola. Will also add in Thursday
for the same areas, plus Socorro.

As for storms, an axis of instability exists from the SW mtns across
NE NM this afternoon, with the strongest instability across Union
Co. per the LAPS analysis. Could see a few more strong or severe
storms in this area through the evening, with hail and gusty
downburst winds the main threats. Most models show a little complex
of storms lasting well into the evening across the northeast, but
should diminish by midnight. Wednesday should be similar to today,
with the northeast being favored for storms in the aftn and eve
again. Less storms are expected on Thursday, therefore, Thursday
should be the hottest day of this stretch.

On Friday, the upper high sinks southward as a trough crosses the
northern Rockies. An associated back door cold front is expected
to slide down the plains, and models are showing the front sliding
through much faster than they were this time yesterday. Both the 12Z
GFS and the 18Z NAM have the front completely through the plains by
18Z Fri, and pushing through the gaps of the central mountain in the
afternoon. As a result, have lowered temps a few degrees across the
east on Friday, particularly NE, but western areas will remain hot.
The RGV will depend on just how fast and strong the front pushes into
the area. The ECMWF remains much slower with the front, not bringing
it down the plains until Saturday. Gusty winds can be expected along
and behind the front.

Low level moisture will be replenished behind the front which will
likely enhanced thunderstorm chances Friday through the weekend with
northwest flow aloft. Not out of the question to see a few strong or
severe storms in this pattern, but shouldn`t see triple digit heat.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY...

The upper high over New Mexico will continue to dominate through
Thursday and into Friday but with some not so subtle changes
starting to show up in the forecast models later this week. In the
meantime, increasing instability with high Haines and some areas of
Super Haines as well as near record to record heat and overall
drying will become more widespread Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture
trapped under the upper high will recycle for thunderstorms to
develop Wednesday and Thursday over the higher terrain then drift
into the valleys and plains, although the areal coverage and chances
for wetting rain will be at a minimum Thursday. Much of any wetting
rain may be relatively localized with many of the cells be more
likely to produce gusty variable winds rather than much rain.

For tonight, cell motion will be slow and somewhat erratic with
storms drifting off the Sangre de Cristo mts and into the highlands
and northeast plains. Farther south and west, motion will be the
most variable. The NAM12 indicates a complex of storms dropping into
ne NM later this afternoon/evening, creating a line of gusty
north/northeast winds which pushes into the east central and along
the east slopes of the central mt chain. This makes for difficult
timing of any east wind into the RGV this evening/tonight. Both RAP
and HRRR not nearly as aggressive with the thunderstorms over the
east and therefore the surface gradient tonight.

Northwest flow looks to strengthen some Wednesday and moreso
Thursday/Friday as the upper high center retreats southward. The
northern tier of zones, 101-102 and 103, may be most impacted by
increasing winds/dryness as the theta-e axis shifts to the east and
south. In fact, portions of the northwest plateau may see several
hours of critical conditions combined with super Haines Thursday
afternoon.

Overnight humidity recoveries continue to be mostly good central and
east tonight through Wednesday night with fair to locally poor
recoveries west. Thursday night will be drier especially for the
west and central where poor recoveries will be widespread after
largely single digit humidities Thursday afternoon.

Higher mixing heights Wednesday and Thursday lead to good to
excellent vent rates over the majority of the forecast areas.

Some of the forecast models are indicating the anticipated heat
relieving front may be faster, and could reach ne NM as early as
Friday morning then push into the RGV late Friday afternoon/early
evening. Confidence isn`t the greatest due to the timing differences
but the forecast is leaning towards a faster movement. While single
digit humidities persist central and west Friday with some areas of
Super Haines, the east will see improvement, and both min and max
humidities trend upward over the weekend as high temperatures cool
to near normal and below overall by Sunday. Chances for convection
with wetting rain increase as well over the east, central and
southwest. For next week, the drier westerly flow is nowhere in
sight, models now indicate what looks suspiciously like a monsoon
pattern for the middle of next week. Maybe picking up on climo.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high center over west central NM. Isold to sct tstms to develop
over the higher terrain aft 18Z and drift into the valleys and
plains. A few of the storms may contain brief MVFR cigs/vsbys obscg
mt tops and wind gusts to around 45kt as well as small hail.
Potential for lcl MVFR cigs over the eastern plains aft 08Z.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ501>509-519.

Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for the following
zones... NMZ501>509-517-519.

Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ501>509-517-519-520.

&&

$$

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