Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 121746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1046 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions the next 24 hours. A lee trough will induce periods of
gusty winds across parts of the eastern plains this afternoon. A back
door cold front will push south and southwestward through the eastern
plains late tonight through mid day Wednesday with a northeasterly
wind shift, which will be gusty across the far eastern plains.



.PREV DISCUSSION...250 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017...
High pressure aloft will bring sunny skies, light winds and high
temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal to northern and central NM
today. A weak backdoor cold front will move into the eastern plains
Wednesday afternoon and into central NM Wednesday night. Highs will
continue to be well above normal ahead of the front on Wednesday, but
will drop to near normal across the eastern plains on Thursday with
highs west of the central mountains still 5 to 10 degrees above
normal. High pressure will build quickly across the region Friday
allowing temperatures to recover to above normal in the eastern
plains. The high will break down Saturday, but temperatures will
still remain well above normal. Downsloping west winds east of the
central mountains Saturday will cause the eastern plains to warm to 10
to 20 degrees above normal. Low pressure moving southward from the
central Rockies Saturday night and Sunday may bring some light
precipitation to the northern mountains and eastern plains. Highs
Sunday will cool to near normal. High pressure will redevelop over
the Southwest Monday and Tuesday with dry and unseasonably mild
conditions returning.


Large high pressure aloft will span from the Great Basin eastward
across NM today, while surface high pressure will dominate from
eastern AZ to West TX. This pattern will bring light winds and warm
temperatures to NM. High temperatures across the region will be 5 to
15 degrees above normal. High pressure aloft will weaken Wednesday,
as a fast-moving upper level trough moves from the northern plains to
the mid MS Valley. Though H5 heights fall 6 to 8 dm, high
temperatures will only fall a couple of degrees and remain well
above normal. A weak backdoor cold front will move across the eastern
plains Wednesday afternoon and across central NM Wednesday night.
Cooler air behind the front will filter westward into central NM
Thursday with temperatures east of the central mountains falling back
to near normal. To the west of the stalled front, highs Thursday
will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal west of the central
mountains. A positively tilted upper level ridge will build quickly
across NM Friday, bumping high temperatures back to well above
normal. The upper level ridge will break down rapidly Saturday, as an
upper level trough moves south southeastward from the northern to
the central Rockies. Surface west winds ahead of the system will
bring another mild day to the NM. Downsloping conditions east of the
central mountains will cause high temperatures to be even warmer,
between 10 and 20 degrees above normal.

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that the trough to the north
will move southward over the eastern half of NM Saturday night into
Sunday. The continental trajectory of this system will limit
available moisture, but light precipitation will be possible from
the north central mountains to the northeastern plains Saturday night
and from the central mountains to the eastern plains Sunday. This
well defined trough will drag a Pacific cold front across NM Saturday
night and a backdoor cold front across eastern NM Sunday. High
temperatures Sunday will drop to near normal behind these fronts.
Flat ridging is expected Monday and Tuesday with dry weather and
temperatures rebounding to well above normal.



Despite some cooling today behind a backdoor front that pushed
through overnight, daytime temperatures are still forecast to be
above normal areawide with abundant sunshine. A stable atmosphere
with large temperatures inversions will make for more poor
ventilation today.

The next weather change will take place late Wednesday night into
Thursday when a shortwave trough and cold front will push southeast
across the state. Cooling behind this front will be most pronounced
across the Eastern Plains, where temperatures will be knocked-down
closer to normal. Vent rates will improve Thursday with the front,
although pockets of poor ventilation will persist. Vent rates will
trend back down most areas Friday, but will improve significantly
over the weekend thanks to the passage of a stronger upper level
trough and associated cold front. Several hours of critical fire
weather conditions are likely across portions of the Eastern Plains
Saturday ahead of the cold front, where excellent mixing and well
above normal temperatures are forecast.

A warming trend is forecast for early next week with vent rates
trending back down to poor most areas.





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