Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 012127
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGE
SWATH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...GENERALLY BEING MOST
CONCENTRATED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
HIGHLANDS AND HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. INTO THURSDAY DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL START TO STREAM TOWARD WESTERN NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL TO
WEST...AND INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EAST
TODAY...BUT OVERALL THE TRENDS ARE VERY COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY`S
WITH FAIRLY SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF RAINFALL AND STORM MOTIONS OF 10
TO 15 MPH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT STILL AT OR JUST
BELOW AN INCH IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE EAST BY JUST A FEW DEGREES...BUT ELSEWHERE SEASONAL
AVERAGES HAVE BEEN THE RULE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT
SHIFT ITS POSITION MUCH...REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NM AND WEST
TX. OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER MUCH INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE ABQ FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME INCREASES ARE
EXPECTED UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. STORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF NM MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT MORE NORTHBOUND WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE STORMS
WOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT A 10 TO 15 MPH PACE. WEDNESDAY`S
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

FORECAST MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...NOT TERRIBLY EARTH SHATTERING...BUT
NOW THE NAM MODEL IS LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE GFS AND CONSEQUENTLY
HAS MUCH LESS MOISTURE/CLOUDS/PRECIP COMING INTO THE STATE DURING
THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS SEEMS SLOWER WITH THE
PROPAGATION OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AS WELL...HOWEVER IT
DOES VENT A BETTER AND HEALTHY SWATH OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. THIS GFS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND PATTERN...SO FORECAST ELEMENTS
FOR THIS PACKAGE HAVE SIDED MORE WITH IT. POPS REMAIN FAIRLY
ELEVATED IN THE WEST AND NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN IN THESE AREAS EACH DAY. POPS MAY NEED
TO BE RATCHETED UPWARD MORE FOR FRIDAY IF THE PATTERN CONVERGES
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.

THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STAY OVER NM INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY STRETCH OR CONFINE INTO MORE OF A SW-NE ORIENTED RIBBON OVER
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO REBOUND
MUCH...AND ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST.
BY SUNDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD BEGIN SNEAKING IN FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WOULD START TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE SOME WHILE ALSO ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM.

A BACK DOOR FRONT COULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN POORLY
RESOLVED BY MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE MONSOON PATTERN PERSISTS WITH THE UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. IN
TERMS OF TRENDS...TODAY IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT...AND
GOOD TO FAIR EAST CENTRAL.

A MOISTENING/COOLING TREND TO BEGIN TOMORROW...THEN RAMP-UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST A
BIT AND A WEST COAST TROUGH TAKES SHAPE...ALLOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL TREND UP DURING THIS PERIOD...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...
BUT ARE STILL AT-ODDS WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
GIVES US A LITTLE BREAK SUNDAY...THEN LOOKS WET FOR NEXT MON/TUE
WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE DRIER SOLUTION. HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON THE WETTING TREND LATE THIS WEEK INTO SATURDAY...THEN LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF MVFR IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. TERMINALS WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS ARE KSAF...KFMN...KGUP...
KAEG AND KABQ...IN THAT ORDER. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
OUTFLOW FROM LATE DAY STORMS TO THE NW OF KABQ/KAEG THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  86  58  82 /  30  20  20  20
DULCE...........................  47  78  46  75 /  30  20  20  40
CUBA............................  51  79  49  78 /  40  30  30  40
GALLUP..........................  52  82  53  80 /  30  20  40  40
EL MORRO........................  49  74  50  73 /  40  40  40  40
GRANTS..........................  50  78  52  77 /  40  40  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  55  75  55  75 /  30  40  30  60
GLENWOOD........................  57  81  58  77 /  30  30  30  50
CHAMA...........................  44  75  44  73 /  40  20  20  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  79  59  78 /  50  50  40  40
PECOS...........................  55  79  54  76 /  30  30  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  78  46  76 /  40  30  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  42  69  42  67 /  50  40  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  47  71  46  69 /  40  40  30  50
TAOS............................  49  80  47  79 /  30  20  20  30
MORA............................  51  76  50  75 /  40  40  30  40
ESPANOLA........................  52  85  52  83 /  40  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  80  57  78 /  30  30  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  82  57  80 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  83  61  81 /  30  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  85  64  83 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  87  58  85 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  87  59  85 /  20  20  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  90  60  86 /  20  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  86  62  82 /  20  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  62  90  62  88 /  20  20  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  82  58  79 /  30  30  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  59  82  59  80 /  30  30  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  84  52  82 /  20  20  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  81  56  79 /  20  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  83  58  82 /  20  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  87  59  85 /  10  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  57  79  55  77 /  10  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  53  84  53  82 /  20  20  20  20
RATON...........................  54  86  54  84 /  20  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  58  87  57  87 /  20  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  83  53  82 /  20  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  90  63  90 /  20  10  10  10
ROY.............................  60  87  58  86 /  20  10  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  67  94  66  93 /  20  10  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  64  92  63  91 /  20  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  95  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  63  91  63  89 /   5   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  91  65  89 /   5   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  66  96  67  94 /   5   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  61  91  61  89 /  10  20  10  20
ELK.............................  58  83  57  80 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52


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