Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 142206
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
306 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
As the storm system which brought widespread rain and snow to the
region exists to the east tonight, high pressure will build in from
the west and northwest. Temperatures will rise to near seasonal
averages on Wednesday and then above average through the remainder of
the week. The next Pacific storm system to impact the area is
expected to bring rain and high mountain snow to central and northern
New Mexico during the latter half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Closed upper low exiting off the east this afternoon. Partial clearing
with relatively high dewpoints across central and western areas
could lead to patchy late night/morning fog/low clouds, mainly
western valleys. Upper level ridge extending from southern CA newd to
MT will ever so slowly translate ewd tonight through mid-day
Thursday. Weak closed low well to the south of the Mexican border
could result in a few clouds across the Sacramento mountains and
southeast plains and not much else. Temperatures rebound to near
seasonal averages Wednesday and above average Thursday through
Saturday.

12Z GFS and ECMWF trending farther south with the next Pacific
trough for the weekend. Canadian is farther north and would result in
another relatively wet system for NM. 51-member ECMWF ensemble mean
is farther north than its operational run (similar to the recent
closed low track) while the GFSensemble mean is very similar to its
operational track. While track uncertainty remains, timing of the
system in all the global models slowed somewhat. As a result, slowed
the timing of precip for central and eastern NM to Saturday night and
Sunday. Models also agree that despite the track, snow levels will
remain quite high (above 8000 feet or so) for the duration of the
system.

Active pattern continues with another Pacific trough on track for mid
to late week next week. Temperatures will likely remain above average
through early next week as 700mb temps remain relatively mild for mid
February.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Skies are beginning to clear out as this past Pacific low moves East
over the southern Great Plains. Remnant low level moisture will
linger over NM tonight into Wednesday morning before RH`s begin to
fall tomorrow afternoon. Low level moisture could produce some early
morning patchy fog over the western half of the state, especially in
valley locations.

A high amplitude ridge moves in Wednesday through Thursday drying
conditions out, with calm winds. Temperatures will also start a
warming trend to finish off the rest of this week. Mixing hgts and
ventilation rates remain fairly poor Wednesday and Thursday as the
ridge takes over. Winds begin to increase Friday afternoon over the
central east plains. This combined with increasing mixing hgts and
ventilation rates could produce decent burning conditions over
southern De Baca and Guadalupe county Friday afternoon.

Models continue to show the next Pacific low moving into the region
late Friday evening into the weekend. Wetting rain will favor the
western half of the state through Saturday before precipitation
chances begin to increase over the eastern plains Sunday.
Temperatures this weekend will not be as cold as with this past
system, and this will limit snow to high elevation mountain
locations. Looking long term, the next Pacific low will move out of
the region Monday with lingering shower activity Monday morning.
Another ridge of high pressure builds in for the early to middle
parts of next week.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Abundant low level moisture left over in the wake of the Pac low
passage. Myriad of categories exist across N/C NM but look for those
conditions and ceilings to improve through the day, with increasing
visibilities. There is some concern for early morning low cloud
levels or even patchy fog in or around FMN and GUP, however there is
little confidence in adding them to the TAFs. Wind directions over
the eastern plains TAF sites will remain out of the N, gradually
backing to the NW heading into the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  29  50  26 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  43  11  41  15 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  41  24  41  26 /  10   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  48  23  49  24 /  20   5   0   0
El Morro........................  43  20  44  21 /  20   5   0   0
Grants..........................  45  21  45  23 /  20   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  21  46  23 /  30   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  51  27  54  27 /  20  10   0   0
Chama...........................  38  13  38  17 /   5   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  44  26  43  30 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  42  24  45  30 /  30  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  38  12  38  17 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  34  15  36  21 /  10   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  38   2  40  12 /  20   0   0   0
Taos............................  44  14  42  19 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  41  24  46  29 /  20   5   0   0
Espanola........................  46  24  47  30 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  42  26  43  30 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  45  22  47  28 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  28  48  33 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  46  29  50  31 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  26  52  27 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  46  28  51  31 /  20   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  49  24  53  24 /  20   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  46  28  50  31 /  20   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  47  31  54  33 /  20   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  26  44  30 /  30   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  43  21  47  26 /  30   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  17  47  23 /  20   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  40  24  45  27 /  20   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  40  26  46  29 /  20   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  44  28  50  31 /  20   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  38  24  45  28 /  30   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  41  23  50  30 /  10   0   0   0
Raton...........................  46  22  52  26 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  45  24  52  26 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  42  22  47  28 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  48  28  56  33 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  46  25  52  29 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  49  30  57  31 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  50  30  54  32 /  20   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  50  27  56  29 /  30   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  44  28  53  31 /  50   5   0   0
Portales........................  45  30  54  32 /  50   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  29  55  31 /  30   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  51  28  57  30 /  30   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  43  30  51  31 /  30   5   0   0
Elk.............................  38  27  47  30 /  30   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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