Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 041805
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GILA
REGION...WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. AFTER 19 OR
20Z EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY STRONG
GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IN A FEW CASES SMALL
HAIL...IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES GUP...SAF...LVS...ABQ AND AEG
AND AFTER APPROX 22Z VICINITY OF FMN. GENERALLY TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FIRST MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING OFF TOWARD ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER TSRA MOTION
LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW AND RATHER ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. EXPECT
MVFR IMPACTS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSS WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. AT LEAST
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE
NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUN. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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