Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251756 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Lowered POPS across the se portion of fcst area along with the
resulting meteorologically appropriate changes to QPF, sky and wx
grids. Not quite as much precip expected there as earlier thought
would be the case.



An upper level low is southwest of New Mexico, and a surface cold
front has plunged into the state from the northeast. Breezy to
windy conditions remain over the ABQ forecast area in the wake of
the front. Thus far, wind gusts have stayed below the 35 kt
criteria for an Aviation Weather Warning at KABQ, and are
expected to decrease some through the afternoon before potentially
spiking back up close to 30 to 35 kt around 26/0000UTC. At this
time no Aviation Weather Warning is planned, but observational
trends will be closely monitored. Broken to overcast low stratus
clouds are in place over the east central to southeastern plains
of New Mexico, but ceilings should hover just above MVFR
categories, only dropping when light rain showers move over.
Winds will weaken in many places overnight, but sill remain breezy
at KABQ while showers re-focus over the
Sacramento/Capitan/Magdalena/Gila mountains of south central to
southwestern New Mexico.



A slow moving upper level low...cut off from the main jet
stream...will be the main weather maker during the next several
days. This low will gradually draw subtropical moisture northward
and impact northern and central New Mexico during the upcoming
week. As a cover will increase and be accompanied
with rainfall chances. The better rainfall chances will be found
across southeast areas initially today and tonight...but
gradually trend to western areas during the upcoming week. As the
cut off low weakens...a deeper Pacific trough will draw closer to
the state late in the week as well as the following weekend and
continue the semi moist flow over the state. Daytime temperatures
will start out on the cooler side...especially thanks to a cold
front today into tonight but a gradually warm to near normal
levels by mid week.


The major changes consist with lowering PoPs across the south
today into tonight. It appears that the cut off low which has
formed early this morning will be even further south/west. This
means the main moisture conveyor belt will be shunted further
south. Went a little above model guidance across the northern
Sacramento mtns and SE plains but the overall trend is for the
heavier precipitation to form further south. Did increase QPF
guidance numbers across far SC/SE portions of the forecast area
today/tonight due to orographic effects. Cool front is currently
sweeping across the state from north to south and will aid in the
near term moist upglide precipitation enhancement across far
southern areas. Reviewed wind speeds and decided to not issue wind
advisories for portions of the plains as well as Rio Grande
Valley. Either way...expect enhanced breeziness across the
majority of the area with short duration advisory speeds across
the aforementioned areas.

Models still show ample amounts of subtropical moisture flowing
northward into the state during the week. The cut off low
placement and translation will be tantamount in terms of stability
and upper level lift dynamics for wringing out the abundant
moisture in the form of rainfall. The models appear to be fairly
consistent with initial isolated to scattered activity favoring
the western third during the earlier half of the week. The NAM may
be a little bullish in terms of banded precipitation later Mon/Mon
night compared to the GFS/ECMWF and Canadian so the PoP field may
need to be further trimmed. Will be watching model continuity in
terms of the low placement and translation northward. It appears
cloud cover would be widespread across the majority of the area
and would help to modify the warmer southerly flow found ahead of
the cut off low. Especially keep overnight lows from falling out
of sight.

The cut off low is still expected to absorb into the mean flow
during the latter half of the week as a deeper Pacific trough
draws closer to the state. A residual subtropical moisture tap
would remain and allow for additional showers and potentially
thunderstorms. Continued abundant cloud cover is more certain
versus heavier precipitation but temperatures will have warmed to
near normal levels by this point. Western areas would be favored
for precipitation and cloud cover.

Some sort of weather transition is expected next weekend as the
Pacific trough digs further inland. The main subtropical moisture
fetch would shunt eastward. Based on the model depicted longwave
trough as well as enhanced tropical activity across the
equatorial Pacific...can`t rule out another cut off low forming
sometime during next weekend or early the following week. This
scenario would adjust a fair bit of things in the current forecast
for that period. Time will tell.



No significant changes to the grids this morning. The trickier
forecast issues are in the short term, specifically the strength and
timing of the east wind expected into the RGV today. The surface
boundary appears slightly slower than what was forecast 24 hrs ago,
in addition, the upper low formation looks to be farther west and
south, so that the forecast mt top level winds (H7) are strongest
early this morning then tend to diminish during the day. And
guidance continues to show a decreasing trend speed wise. All in
all, gusts to 40 or 45 mph are possible below canyons but not
looking like sustained winds will be strong enough to meet wind
advisory criteria. There may be some n-nely gusts to around 40 to 50
mph in plains briefly today as well. Otherwise, low level moisture
and lift sufficient for showers and isolated storms over portions of
the east central today. Highs range from 5 to 15 degrees below
average and vent rates good to excellent along and south of I-40
while diminishing farther north toward the CO border.

Low level southeast winds to bring more widespread chances for rain
showers tonight through Monday night over the west and south. Highs
Monday remain below average, and vent rates over the northern third
will be fair to poor, but remain good or better south of I-40. Gusty
southeast winds may be common over the southwest mts Monday. On
Tuesday, the upper low will begin it`s journey north into Arizona
and then through the Great Basin later in the week. The Contdvd
westward will be favored for showers and storms Tuesday through
Wednesday. Daytime temperatures are forecast to climb closer to
average or above by midweek but poor vent rates may be widespread
over the east and north central Tuesday and Wednesday.

A trough to the northwest and high pressure to the south of NM later
this week will keep sw winds aloft over the state. Models suggest
there may be a surge of moisture from the south later this week but
not much confidence and pop grids not terribly optimistic.





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