Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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669
FXUS65 KABQ 170540 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1040 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Wly winds aloft to strengthen through 17/21Z with deepening sfc lee
trough. Mostly mid to high level clouds except for nw/north central
NM where occasional mt obscurations to develop in sct-nmrs -shrasn
aft 17/09Z. Wind gusts over Sangre de Cristo mts may possibly reach
50kt or greater at times aft 17/06Z with gusts to 50kt or greater
spreading south and eastward to KCQC and over ne/east central NM to
the TX border aft 17/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds today will strengthen even more tonight as a storm
system approaches from the Pacific northwest. High winds will impact
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains overnight then spread into the
northeastern plains Friday. Wind gusts near 60 mph are expected in
these areas, while the remainder of northern and central New Mexico
experiences wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Some light snow is possible
over the northern mountains late tonight into Saturday morning. One
to four inches is possible above 9000 feet. A strong cold front will
slide through the state Saturday and usher in temperatures closer to
normal for mid November. The first freeze of the season will occur
at the Albuquerque Sunport Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Guidance has settled into very good agreement and there was little
change to the ongoing forecast package. Confidence was high enough
to hoist high wind warnings over parts of the northern high terrain
and adjacent northeastern plains, with wind advisories for a few of
the surrounding zones.

Thick high clouds streaming into western NM today accompany stronger
700-500mb winds ahead of the parent upper trough over the Pac NW.
Surface winds have already increased today to near advisory levels
in a few spots, and this trend will continue upward through tonight
within the high terrain. High winds are expected to spread eastward
into the northeastern plains Friday. Downslope flow will lead to a
few record highs across the east, with near records possible within
parts of central NM.

Meanwhile, 12Z guidance and WPC progs continue to trend higher with
QPF and snow along west facing slopes of the northern mts. Amounts
will stay below advisory criteria however the combination of wind
and snow will create low/moderate impact winter conditions above
9,000 ft, particularly in the San Juan Mts after midnight tonight
through Friday night.

Saturday will feature a strong cold front surging south through NM.
700mb cold advection will trend temps from near +6C Friday to -2C,
which actually cools surface temps to near normal. Exceptionally dry
air along with this new airmass, clear skies, and light winds on
Saturday night will lead to the coldest night of the fall season for
the entire area. The first freeze of the fall season will occur at
the ABQ Sunport Sunday morning. The potential for even a solid hard
freeze is looking better as guidance is trending into the mid 20s.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy conditions across the northern mtns and adjacent plains Fri.
Critical Fire Wx conditions across the east-central plains Fri
afternoon with record high temperatures.

A changing weather pattern is in-store for Friday with an
approaching upper level trough. A tightening pressure gradient aloft
will produce windy conditions across the Sangre`s starting tonight,
expanding to the lower elevations the northeast plains in the
afternoon. Gusts up to 60mph are possible above 8500`, potentially
reaching down to areas along the I-25 corridor Fri afternoon. Breezy
to windy conditions will also exist at high elevations in the
Chuskas, Tusas, and Sandia/Manzano ranges and along I-40 from the
central mtn chain to the TX border.

Downslope flow across the east will also scour out any lingering sfc
moisture across eastern NM, raising temperatures to record high
levels. Critical fire weather conditions will exist for several
hours for portions of zone 108 in east-central NM.

The trough axis will pass through NM Sat morning, with some snow
accumulating across the northern mtns, with a few inches possible
atop the Tusas mtns. Afterwards, colder and drier air funnels in
from N-S across NM Sat. Ventilation rates plummet to poor area wide
Sat behind the front, with pockets of fair across the east. This
will stay true through the middle part of next week. The GFS and
ECMWF are in much better agreement for next week with a ridge
building in the EPAC setting up NW flow across NM. Some mid-level
moisture may make its way in by late next week, otherwise long range
it looks dry and calm.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM MST Friday for the following
zones... NMZ108.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for the following
zones... NMZ502-505-521-533-534.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for the following
zones... NMZ523-527>532.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for the following zones...
NMZ513>515.

&&

$$



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