Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 231748 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1048 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE THE FRESH SNOWPACK
AND SOME WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE TOP LAYER TODAY...LOW CIGS/VIS
REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AT TERMINAL SITES CANT RULE THAT
OUT BUT THE DRIER INFLUX OF SFC AIR AND SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT IF LOW
CIGS/VIS REDUCTIONS WERE TO OCCUR...LOOK AT ROW.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A FRIGID COLD START TO THE DAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND ARE FORECAST
TO STAY THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE
BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A BAJA LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BRING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES BEING OBSERVED WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GO. LIGHT WINDS...A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND
FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ARE HELPING A NUMBER OF LOCALES TO DIP
BELOW ZERO. ANGEL FIRE REPORTED -19 AT 2 AM MST. PATCHES OF
FREEZING FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SINCE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT HAS
BEEN TRANSIENT WITH A NUMBER OF SITES GOING DOWN TO BELOW ONE
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY ONLY TO BOUNCE BACK UP TO +10SM AN HOUR OR
TWO LATER. CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ISSUING A FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY.

A PROLONGED WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY...TEMPERED INITIALLY
BY SNOW ON THE GROUND. OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE AN AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE LOWEST OF THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS MOS WHERE SNOW IS ON THE GROUND. SOME MELTING IS
GUARANTEED TODAY...WHICH MAY SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. OUR NUMBERS
GOING THROUGH SATURDAY ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR MOS NUMBERS BY SUNDAY.

A REX BLOCK UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BAJA LOW. THE 00Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PULL THE BAJA LOW NORTH TOWARD
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO
ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. OUR POPS FOR MON/TUE REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AND FAVOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BAJA
LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING FOLLOWING BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY PRIOR TO
WHAT MAY BE A VERY WET SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WITH REMAINING SNOW COVER. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES
WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE OVER SNOW COVERED
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK
FEATURE WILL BRING A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ACT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH.

A WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN SUNDAY....SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
VENTILATION RATES WILL REMAIN POOR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH
THE IDEA OF BRINGING UP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD
CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF THE BAJA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING UP A BAND OF MAINLY RAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY. THE SUB-TROPICAL
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS UP TO NEAR TIMBERLINE
MONDAY....DROPPING TO NEAR 10K FEET TUESDAY.

DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...GFS CONTINUES WITH IDEA OF
BRINGING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES...AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NEW MEXICO
ALONG WITH SCATTERED LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
ECMWF IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 7.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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