Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200142 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
742 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXACTLY
CONDUCIVE...HOWEVER LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
WITH WET SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS
MAINLY FROM RUIDOSO TO ROSWELL NORTHWARD TO I-40 WITH A FEW
PATCHES IN SOME WESTERN ZONES POSSIBLE AS WELL. POPS WILL ALSO BE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS MESHED WITH SHORT TERM
PROGS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL. THIS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...552 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OVER
NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW NM TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR LATER
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. OTHER SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL NM SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z BUT SOME INDICATION
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AFT 06Z.
BAND OF TSTMS FROM KSAF TO KCQC MAY PUSH A GUSTY EAST WIND TO KABQ
APPROXIMATELY 01Z-04Z. MOVEMENT OF MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ERRATIC AT TIMES. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN
CONVECTION WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFT 06Z IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PCPN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS OBSCG MTS ALSO POSSIBLE WRN MTS AFT 10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRYING AND WARMING LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

STORM NUMBER TWO MOVING INTO SONORA WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST
AND PRETTY MUCH BE GONE BY TUESDAY. BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND HELP CONTINUE PULLING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO NM. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRYING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY
WITH THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
PRODUCE A DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SONORA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING HARD TO FIND BY TUESDAY.
BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MORE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE
BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING NM WED...HELPING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP COMING INTO NM.
THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ASIDE FROM THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE COME TO AN AGREEMENT OF A MORE PROGRESS
TROUGH CROSSING NM WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING AFTER THAT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL STILL INSISTS ON A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS POTENT AS ITS PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE GFS AND NOW THE EUROPEAN. TRIMMED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS SHARPLY OVER NM FRIDAY IS NOW
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
WIND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH MAY REACH NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE OVERALL STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE MOIST AND COOL TO START WITH
A BIG DRYING AND WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS IS SHIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NM...WHILE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 ARE PICKING UP WETTING RAINFALL. FARTHER NORTH STORMS ARE
DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SECOND WAVE
OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH EVEN SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE EAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE
MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN.

RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH AS MOISTURE SLOWLY SCOURS OUT OF THE LOWER TERRAIN.
VENT RATES WILL BE THE BEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND MUCH
LOWER BOTH DAYS. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES
WITH HARDLY ANY WIND ALOFT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AND TEMPS WILL
BE RELEGATED BY STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. THE RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN
TO BREAK DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AS A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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