Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 151718 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1018 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE
TODAY...BUT WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPERATURES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER
BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOW THAT THE STORM HAS PASSED...A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVERHEAD. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS A STRONG INVERSION
ABOVE 775 MB SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MIXING TODAY...PLUS SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH BOTH SOME SNOW STILL ON THE
GROUND AND A BLANKET OF HIGH CLOUDS. OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS JUST A
SMIDGEN...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. DESPITE SOME SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS
EASTERN NM. MEANWHILE...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RAISE UP TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALI WILL DAMPEN
AS IT HEADS EASTWARD TOWARD NM. THE CANADIAN AND EC MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME SCATTERED PRECIP WITH THIS AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH DRIER. THE
FOLLOWUP SYSTEM ON WED NIGHT/THURSDAY WILL BE FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE GREAT BASIN...PERHAPS
CLOSING OFF AS IT CROSSES NM. ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...OR MOVE INTO...WESTERN NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS COMING FROM...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR AT
LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOWEVER.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE TRANSITION DAYS WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP
FLOP SOMEWHAT...A STRONG CLOSED LOW MAY IMPACT THE STATE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EVEN COLDER.STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD UPSLOPE FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN BURSTS DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS. WETTING PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROBUST PACIFIC SYSTEM POSSIBLE DURING
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIRMASS PATTERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
VENTILATION RATES APPEAR TO BE THE LOWEST TODAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY. A LONGWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CREATE A STRENGTHENING STABLE
LAYER ALOFT...THUS CREATING FAIRLY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. DUE TO THE
MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT...SEE A BELT OF GUSTY BREEZES ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AS WELL AS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY LOWER ALTHOUGH A BELT
OF FAIR TO LOCALIZED GOOD CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MT TAYLOR
TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO LOWER DUE TO THE
INFLUX OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RISING TEMPERATURES. VALUES LOOK TO BE
NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL GET DISPLACED TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
A TAP OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS OFF THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED. DESPITE
SOME HIGHER CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND
BECOME NEAR NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY MOIST WITH THE LACK OF BELOW 25 PCT READINGS. DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT...VENTILATION RATES WILL IMPROVE MOST AREAS
ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF POOR SHOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS.

THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE MOIST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES. VENTILATION SHOULD IMPROVE
A BIT MORE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AS THE ATMOSPHERE
COOLS ALOFT. PERHAPS A FEW SPOT SHOWERS...LIGHT...ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT.

THE TRUE MOISTENING PERIOD WILL START UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.
WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATIONS RAIN
IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL OF THE WEATHER MODELS SHOW SOME
SORT OF PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY HIGH. RESIDUAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW CROSSES OVER THE STATE. PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD FRIDAY MORNING.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD ON THURSDAY BUT LOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME SORT OF NW PACIFIC WAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE SOME
FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GFS PAINTING DIFFERENT TRACKS
OF THE UPPER LOW. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW WHICH MODEL WOULD WIN OUT
BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN GFS AT THIS TIME. THE
PATTERN SHOUTS OUT ABUNDANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND OTHER AREAS BUT THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE KEY PLAYERS. EITHER
WAY...ANOTHER WETTING EVENT IS VERY POSSIBLE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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