Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 192359 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Mesoscale models depict most of the shower and thunderstorm activity
across N central and NE areas diminishing by midnight. Some snow
showers could linger near the CO border into the late night hours.
A reinforcing shot of cooler air will surge into the eastern plains
tonight with some easterly upslope flow and areas of MVFR/IFR
conditions in low clouds E of the central mountain chain into early
Saturday morning. Probabilities were too low to include in 00Z TAFs,
but SCT low could become BKN at times in LVS, TCC and ROW.



.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017...
The low pressure system responsible for rain, snow, and even a few
thunderstorms across northern NM today will move slowly east into
the Great Plains tonight. Cold air in the wake of this system will
lead to freezing low temperatures in parts of northern NM that have
already begun the growing season. Temperatures will trend warmer on
Saturday but still remain below normal. Conditions will warm even
more on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds over western NM.
Low level moisture will increase over southeast NM where and a few
showers and thunderstorms are possible. This moisture will spread
more into eastern NM Monday and increase the chances for showers and
storms along and east of the central mountain chain. Another cold
front will slide down the eastern plains Tuesday and increase the
potential for a few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. A ridge
of high pressure will build over NM starting next Wednesday with a
significant warming trend expected by late next week.


An area of showers and storms over the northeast corner of NM will
be the last vestiges of an upper level low pulling away from the
region tonight. Surface dewpoints are already falling into the upper
teens and 20s over western NM as dry air advects eastward from AZ.
This drier air along with clearing skies is expected to lead to
freezing low temps over areas of northern NM that have already begun
the growing season. Hoisted a freeze warning from Farmington to
Santa Fe and Espanola, the Estancia Valley, and Raton to Las Vegas.
There is decent spread in 12Z MOS guidance temps for tonight however
coverage is enough and late season nature of these temps warranted

Northwest flow will diminish Saturday as the upper low pulls east
into Great Plains. 700mb temps will rise to between +4 and +6C so
highs will remain below normal but trend much warmer than today.
Surface high pressure will increase over the Great Plains Sunday and
allow return flow to increase low level moisture over southeast NM.
H5 heights over NM will rise to near 582dm and 700mb temps trend to
near +12C. This will trend high temps close to normal, which will
feel really good after all the chilly weather. Monday will feature
much of the same but with slightly better coverage of showers and
storms under W/NW flow aloft over eastern NM.

An 80kt 300mb speed max shifting south across the northern Rockies
will reinforce NW flow aloft over the Front Range and help force a
back door front into eastern NM Tuesday. This set up looks favorable
for at least some strong storms over the eastern plains.

The 12Z GFS for Wednesday hints at a high amplitude upper ridge
developing over the Great Basin while low level moisture sloshes
around eastern NM. This will allow temps to increase near to above
normal over central and western NM while the potential for showers
and storms continues across the east. Extended MOS guidance shows a
strong warming trend through late next week with temps rising back
into the 80s and 90s.



Closed upper low will lift east of the state tonight. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will linger across far northeast NM
through midnight or so. Clearing sky along with light winds will
result in a chilly Saturday morning with many locations falling into
the 30s. A dry northwest flow aloft will transition over the state
Saturday, resulting in modest warming. Temperatures will continue to
warm Sunday as south to southeast winds develop most areas. These
winds will also act to transport Gulf moisture into eastern and
southern NM Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
Sunday afternoon over the southwest mountains and across the eastern

South and southeast winds will continue to transport low level Gulf
moisture into mainly southern and eastern NM Monday. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are looking more likely for eastern NM Monday
afternoon and evening as an unseasonably strong backdoor front
enters the mix. Elsewhere on Monday, dry northwest winds will keep
the Gulf moisture from moving into the northwest third or so of the
state. Another strong backdoor front moves into northeast NM
Tuesday, resulting in more strong to severe storms from the east
slopes of the Sangres east. This front is expected to push wwd to
the AZ border Tuesday night.

GFS and ECMWF models agree with one another, bringing in dry
northwest flow aloft Wednesday and beyond. Temperatures will remain
below average Saturday, rising to near seasonal averages Sunday and
Monday. The Tuesday backdoor cold front will drop temps back down
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Ventilation rates will range from poor to good on Saturday,
increasing from the good to excellent range Sunday and Monday. The
one exception will be across the northeast Monday where a backdoor
cold front will keep vent rates in the poor to fair range.



Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 7 AM MDT Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ501-517-518-522-523-528-529.


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