Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250604 AAD
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY MAY HUG AREAS ALONG
AND UP TO ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WED. NEAR AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
FELL TUE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY IFR AND PERHAPS EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND PATCHY FOG UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. EXPECT ALSO SOME MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AS WELL. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WITH
LOCALIZED OCCURRENCES OF W TO NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND NEARLY
45 KTS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST MID DAY WED TO LEE OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON EAST WHERE CONDITIONS
TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET AS THE COMBO OF ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CREATE A
DRAMATIC DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SNOW
BREAKING OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1014 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
DROPPED THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SOUTH AS SNOW HAS EXITED THE
AREA MUCH EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ON THE
WAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THAT REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD ON UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

A VERY CHALLENGING SCENARIO WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE IN TERMS OF HOW TO
HANDLE BOOKKEEPING OF NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS SET TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAS SLIGHTLY COMPELLED TO
TACKLE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR OTHER AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE FRIDAY PERIOD BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
TIME TO ANALYZE THESE COMPLEXITIES. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
MODEL PROGS THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...556 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
EXPIRED WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR REMAINING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AS SNOW IS EXITING THE REGION. THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP IS MOVING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
1 OR 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES.
WILL LIKELY EXPIRE THOSE HIGHLIGHTS BY 06Z THEN CONSIDER ISSUANCE
OF WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FOR TOMORROW.

GUYER

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...344 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED WET PERIOD IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A
SUCCESSION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY...BUT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE LOOKS TO BE NO LET UP NEXT WEEK AS THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF NEW
MEXICO WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES
TO THE SOUTH...LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO DWINDLE QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET NW
FLOW DAY WITH A SOLID WARM- UP...ALTHOUGH BREEZY TO WINDY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO HIT WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD AT A FEW SITES LIKE
CLINES CORNERS.

THE NEXT BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY EVENING. THE
INITIAL PUSH WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM. THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...THE RATON RIDGE...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL BE FAVORED INITIALLY AND WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE A WATCH. A GRADUAL WESTWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIP CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IMPACTS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND APPROACH OF A
MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BIG EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INVOLVES A LARGE
AND POTENT TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AN CLOSES
OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SIGNIFICANT QPF BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE BIG WINNERS...WITH SNOW
AMOUNTS LIKELY MEASURED IN FEET BY MONDAY. LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES
WON`T MISS-OUT THOUGH...AND THIS WETTING EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO REALLY IMPROVE OUR SHORT TERM DROUGHT (SNOW PACK) SITUATION.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD NEXT MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH ON IT`S HEELS AS THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF WETTING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MOST AREAS. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.
VENTILATION WILL ALSO BE DECENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL
BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED WITH THE NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL.

THE NEXT CLIPPER LIKE STORM SYSTEM WITH A POLAR BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING
CLIPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
PLAINS. THUS ANOTHER MULTI DAY WETTING EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. DRIER
ACROSS THE WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
LEAD TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND FAIRLY DECENT VENTILATION
OVERALL.

THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ACTION FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND USHERS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE MAIN WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS UNSETTLED
AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LAST WEEK IN FEBRUARY/FIRST WEEK OF MARCH WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
A WEEK WE POINT BACK TO IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING FIRE
DANGER ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529.

&&

$$






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