Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221131 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
531 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2016

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with a couple
of possible exceptions. Another round of showers and storms are
forecast this afternoon/evening, with KLVS, KAEG, KABQ and KSAF
the terminals most likely to be impacted and generally ranking in
that order. Short-lived MVFR impacts are likely with storms later
today, with potential for wind gusts to between 40-50kts. MVFR
conditions are possible toward the end of the TAF period as well
with a frontal passage and rain at KGUP and KFMN. Otherwise, winds
will increase in the lower levels of the atmosphere today, with
surface wind gusts to between 25-30kts.



Subtropical moisture will continue to flow northward ahead of a
deep Pacific trough. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms favoring central areas...especially
the north central mountains. A Pacific cold front associated with
the upper trough will sweep across the area on Friday. Wind speeds
will increase while showers and storms favor western areas during
the morning. A few spot showers and storms will also be possible
across the east. Temperatures will cool and set up below normal
afternoon readings for the weekend. A reinforcing piece of trough
energy may provide unsettled weather Sunday into Monday with a
gradual drying trend by the middle of next week.


Radar shows lingering activity across northern and western areas
early this morning. The activity should trend further north as the
morning progresses. A resurgence of showers and thunderstorms via
daytime heating...approach of the Pacific trough and a continued
subtropical moisture presence will occur this afternoon with
impacts continuing into the overnight period. The north central
mtns should do pretty good due to a moist upslope flow there. NAM
is picking up on training bands of storms but dont believe that
will create significant hydro issues. Dry slotting across the far
west should reduce chances there and the southeast also looks to
be devoid of precipitation.

The main frontal precipitation band associated with the upper
trough will push into western areas Friday morning. As the
precipitation band pushes east it should lose its vigor based on
the modeling. It appears the upper low and trough lose its
strength or begins to shear out during the Friday time frame.
Wind speeds will increase due to the stronger flow aloft/mixing
and deepening leeside trough. Possible wind advisory situation for
the northeast highlands/northeast plains. Can`t rule out some
storm chances across the far east later in the day but will be
dependent on the surface dryline and timing of convective
initiation. Near unidirectional shear should limit severe
potential but a few strong/pulse storms will be possible.

Modest cold air advection and surface/upper level drying should
spell a fairly cool Saturday morning. It appears that the San Juan
river basin will be close to freezing...if not experience a soft
freeze. Will be monitoring closely in terms of needed freeze
highlights for that zone. Dry forecast on tap for Saturday
although cooler than normal across the western half to two thirds.

Sunday/Monday period could become interesting. My understanding is
that the models have been flip flopping on the cut off low
scenario. There is a chance of phase alignment between the upper
level low and the back door cold front in terms of long duration
precipitation potential. Would like to see some run to run model
consistency before totally buying off on the wetter solution but
worth watching. The Canadian/ECMWF and NAM are most bullish with
widespread precipitation across the eastern third to half. The
Canadian/ECMWF are more bullish across western areas.



Humidity recovery this morning is good to excellent areawide as the
moistening phase of the current trend peaks. Chances for storms and
wetting rain will peak this afternoon/evening, focusing across
central New Mexico between the northern mountains and lower Rio
Grande Valley. Otherwise, winds and vent rates will continue to
trend up today with a deepening lee side trough as a potent upper
level low and associated cold front approach from over the Great
Basin. Daytime temperatures will be above normal areawide once

A drying trend will begin Friday behind the cold front, with a
decent shot for wetting rain along the front over north central and
western portions of the area. Windy conditions are forecast ahead of
the front, especially across east central and northeast New Mexico
as the lee side trough deepens further. Below normal daytime
temperatures are forecast Friday behind the front thanks to strong
cold air advection. The front will progress east across New Mexico
Friday evening with temperatures trending below normal areawide for
the weekend.

Considerable differences among the 00z model suite continue with the
development and placement of the secondary upper low over New Mexico
Saturday night into Sunday. Forecaster confidence is still
relatively low with regard to wetting rain potential late in the
weekend, however the best shot looks to be over the eastern plains
thanks in part to a stronger backdoor cold front push. Daytime
temperatures will be an average 10 degrees below normal behind the
backdoor front across the east Sunday and Monday.

The forecast going into the middle of next week is of very low
forecaster confidence at this time. If the 00z operational run of
the GFS works-out, then dry conditions with a return to above normal
temperatures looks to be in the cards by Wednesday as an upper high
builds over the Great Basin and Central Rockies.






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