Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 190543 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1143 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Remnant storm activity over western NM which will continue to push
west with one particular patch of storms moving over the NW plateau
potentially reaching KFMN. Brief periods of localized visibility
restrictions will accompany the passage of any tstorm. Wednesday will
see a lull in tstm activity due to the upper high over the Great
Plains swinging in dry air aloft over NM. This will cap convection
over much of NM, with a crop of cu and isolated convection west of
the central mtn chain, scattered west of the continental divide.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will reign supreme Wednesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017...
High pressure setting up along the KS/OK border will bring drier air
into NM the next couple of days, with the most impact across eastern
NM where convection will shut down completely. Central areas will see
less activity while the west continues fairly active. The high will
shift east allowing the moisture plume to work slowly back eastward
late this week and over the weekend. A short wave trough passing to
our north will drop a back door cold front into the state this
weekend, moistening things up even more, especially in the east. It
will be quite unsettled this weekend into next week. High pressure
though will be trying to develop to our northwest again which may
suppress convection in the northwest.


The west will be best and the east will be least in terms of rainfall
through the rest of this week. The center of the high pressure ridge
has set up over the OK/KS border this afternoon and will strengthen
a bit and drift east through the rest of the week. Drier air seen on
satellite is starting to sweep into eastern NM. This will shut down
the convection over the east over the next couple of days. Central
areas will receive less activity while the west will still manage
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the
rest of the week. Areas from the Continental divide to the AZ border
will be at risk of receiving heavy rain leading to minor flooding or
flash flooding. As the high shifts farther east this weekend the
moisture plume will be able to drift eastward enough to bring much
needed moisture to central and maybe eastern areas. Highs will be
near normal in the west and above normal in the east into the

A short wave trough to our north will be able to send a back door
cold front into eastern NM by Sunday. This will bring low level
moisture into the state, especially the east. Sunday through Tuesday
will be quite active. A stronger short wave trough will dive
southeast through the middle of the country mid-week while strong
high pressure develops to our northwest. This may lead to a decrease
in storm coverage for the second half of next week.



Upper high center located to our east with drier air pushing into
eastern NM today and possibly central NM on Wednesday. While locales
along and west of the Contdvd will remain active with potential for
heavy rainfall and minor flooding, the east and central should see
diminished convection on Wednesday and into Thursday. Consequently,
high temperatures Wednesday will warm slightly with humidities a
bit lower.

This afternoon and evening will be active though for the west and
central. Cell motion will be slow, and mainly to the southwest, west
or northwest. Outflow boundaries may eventually create more erratic
development and motion later this afternoon/evening.

On Wednesday cell motion is forecast to be around 10 mph and
generally to the northwest. Model differences start to show up for
Thursday as the NAM12 is faster importing moisture into Southwest
NM, but also holds onto the dry air over the north central and
northeast. All in all, areas along and west of the Contdvd will
continue to see the greater areal coverage and number of storms,
while the central is more questionable in how much convection there
will be. If the NAM12 is right, Thursday would be another down day
for the north central and northeast. On Friday the plume of moisture
may return a bit farther to the east into NM. The latest GFS not too
impressive with it`s precipitation forecast for Friday, but the
western and northern high terrain look to be featured. By the
weekend, the plume of moisture may shift back more squarely into NM,
but model differences continue. The GFS suggests stronger westerlies
to our north, which brings a front into the northeast plains Sunday,
triggering a round of convection for the northeast quarter. It also
focuses on the southwest mountains. By the end of next week, the GFS
strongly rebuilds the ridge over the Great Basin. The ECMWF hints at
a monsoon surge over the weekend and early next week, then also
trends toward the upper high center relocating over the Great Basin.

Vent rates will be a mixed bag each day for the rest of this week,
but will be generally good or better Wednesday. Areas of fair to
poor rates forecast for the west on Thursday through Friday and over
the north and west Saturday.  High temperatures will trend from near
to above average to mostly below average by Sunday and Monday.




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