Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200959
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
359 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE LATE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INITIAL
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW AND OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE MAIN LOW WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
THIS WEEKEND PASSING OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT INVADED MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
PAST NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A RETURN FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR FROM
WEST TEXAS. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL FUEL AN ACTIVE
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK BACK EASTWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY
BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RESPECTABLE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF OUR
EASTERN PLAINS AS OF THIS WRITING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ALREADY 8-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE AT CLAYTON. ADJUSTED
SKY/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT SOLID UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS WITH PREDOMINATELY
PATCHY FOG THOUGH ABOUT 15Z. COULD SEE A SQUIRT OF EAST CANYON
WINDS BY DAYBREAK BUT NOT PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT THOUGH THEY
COULD HAVE MINOR IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPS FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA FE
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ABQ SUNPORT.

MODELS SIMILAR ADVERTISING MODEST 2-4DAM 500MB HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE REGION TODAY AS NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT...TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
CONVECTIVE- WISE WITH AREAS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
SANGRES FAVORED FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED BUILDUPS ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT HAVE NOTED
IMPACTS FROM A NARROW BUT SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT OVER SW PARTS OF
THE AREA. FARTHER EAST...WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST
CORNER FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE- BASED CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD PART OF DAY ON
THE PLAINS.

VERY MOIST RETURN FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS IN EARNEST THIS
EVENING...AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND STRENGTHENS. LOOKS LIKE
A NICE SET UP FOR AN INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN AGAIN FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS FAVORED FOR LOCALLY IF NOT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SOLID UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY TONIGHT...AND SUSPECT
THE MOIST EASTERLY PUSH WILL REACH THE DIVIDE BEFORE NOON
THURSDAY. THIS TIMING WILL BE WELL PHASED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE-
SCALE LIFTING ENVIRONMENT AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD
FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH. FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR ENTRAINED WITHIN BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
THEN RESULT IN AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER/TSTORM
COVERAGE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND /BUT NOT ELIMINATED/ WITH EASTERN
AREAS FAVORED. COULD SEE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
EAST...PARTICULARLY SE WHERE MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SURGED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...A
LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG MOVED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT CREATING A SHARP CONTRAST IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES
WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES EAST AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND MOSTLY
FAIR RECOVERIES ELSEWHERE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR INTRUSION
WHICH MOVED OVER NEW MEXICO YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST. WEAK RIDGING
TODAY WILL LIMIT WETTING RAIN POSSIBILITIES WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. MIN RH VALUES TO LOWER TO BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

WETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE WEST...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH AFTERNOON VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
SO THE DRY AND WINDY COMBINATION COULD REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
MAINLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

BY FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A DRY SLOT
MOVES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GRADIENT ALOFT STRENGTHENS...
MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE THUS STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALL AREAS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON A WATCH GIVEN FUEL CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL GIVE IT A CLOSER LOOK.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE EAST...THE DRY LINE COULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
CROSSES NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND
WETTING PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
EASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL PATTERN. 05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
JUST A FEW LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF NM INTO MID EVE NORTH...LATE EVE EAST. BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS FAR NE NM AS OF 00Z WILL ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVERNIGHT...LIKELY GENERATING LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR AND IFR
RANGE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KLVS TO KCVN AFTER
ROUGHLY 08Z TIL ABOUT 17Z. KTCC LIKELY TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED
TERMINAL SITE BY THESE LOW CLOUDS. TEMPO GROUP OF LOW CIGS ADDED
FOR KLVS IN EARLY TO MID MORN PERIOD WED...THOUGH CONFIDENCE STILL
JUST MODERATE FOR THIS OCCURRENCE AT KLVS. EAST TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF EAST HALF OF NM WILL INCREASE LOW LVL MOISTURE
INPUT WED...SO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT
AFTER ABOUT 19Z IN NE AND SE NM...BUT CHANCES INCREASE MORE SO
ACROSS THE EAST HALF MAINLY PAST THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD OF 00Z
THU.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  74  48  75  46 /   0   0  20  20
DULCE...........................  68  39  68  39 /   5  10  40  50
CUBA............................  68  43  65  40 /   5  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  72  41  72  38 /   0   0   5   0
EL MORRO........................  71  41  70  37 /   0   5  10   0
GRANTS..........................  74  41  72  38 /   0   5  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  73  43  72  39 /   0   5   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  78  46  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  63  36  63  36 /   5  20  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  70  45  65  42 /   5  30  40  40
PECOS...........................  68  44  59  41 /  10  40  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  66  39  62  39 /   5  20  50  40
RED RIVER.......................  57  37  54  35 /  20  20  70  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  40  55  37 /  20  40  60  50
TAOS............................  67  41  64  40 /   5  20  40  40
MORA............................  65  43  57  40 /  30  50  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  74  46  71  43 /   5  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  70  45  64  42 /   5  30  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  73  46  66  43 /   5  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  75  51  70  48 /   0  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  77  52  73  50 /   0  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  78  52  75  50 /   0  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  77  51  73  49 /   5  20  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  79  52  77  50 /   0  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  76  51  72  48 /   5  20  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  81  51  78  50 /   0   5  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  47  64  46 /   0  40  60  30
TIJERAS.........................  74  48  67  46 /   0  30  40  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  73  46  63  44 /   0  20  40  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  69  43  57  45 /   5  40  60  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  48  68  46 /   0  20  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  75  49  72  49 /   0  10  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  70  48  62  48 /   5  20  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  60  42  58  46 /  20  30  40  50
RATON...........................  65  44  61  45 /  20  40  50  60
SPRINGER........................  66  46  60  47 /  20  40  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  64  44  55  43 /  20  50  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  57  44  58  48 /  10  20  50  60
ROY.............................  61  45  55  47 /  10  30  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  65  49  60  52 /  10  40  50  70
SANTA ROSA......................  68  49  59  51 /  10  40  60  70
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  49  60  53 /  10  30  60  70
CLOVIS..........................  62  50  59  50 /  10  40  60  70
PORTALES........................  64  51  60  52 /  10  40  60  70
FORT SUMNER.....................  70  52  61  53 /  10  40  70  70
ROSWELL.........................  77  54  65  54 /  10  40  70  70
PICACHO.........................  74  51  62  51 /   5  40  60  60
ELK.............................  73  49  62  49 /   5  40  60  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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