Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211138 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
538 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/low cigs have pushed into SE portions of the forecast area
this morning. Will continue IFR cigs at ROW through mid to late
morning before mixing out. It will be close in terms of dryline
storms and impact to SE/far eastern areas later today. Atmosphere
should destabilize after 0z. Cant rule out some outflow wind gusts
impacting TCC/ROW from the east during the overnight hours. Either
way...surface dryline and potential low cigs will push back to
the west overnight and could provide some low ceilings to TCC and
ROW after 10z. Used a tempo SCT group to indicate this potential
at ROW. Wind gusts will be the other aviation hazard with routine
gusts between 25 to 35 kt at many TAF locations this afternoon.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will stay in place across the vast majority of the
forecast area for at least the next week, probably longer. Later
this afternoon into tonight, perhaps again late Sunday, there is
still a chance of isolated showers and either strong or severe
thunderstorms in far east central and southeast portions of the
forecast area. Breezy to windy conditions will accompany the dry
conditions across the area. Daytime high temperatures will
generally be just below seasonal normals across the west, with
near to a little above normal values across central and eastern
areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
It has been about as quiet a night weatherwise as we normally ever
see across the fcst area. The dryline, more sharply defined across
se portions of the area than farther north, has drifted back
westward as expected and will likely get a little farther so
through mid morn before getting driven back east as the day
progresses. As is often the case, just how deeply the dry slot and
vertical mixing can erode away the moisture in the east will
largely determine how far east the dryline is pushed and also, to
a good amount, whether a deep enough moist layer even remains
immediately east of the dry line to allow storms to fire or
whether it will be instances of towering cumulus that then entrain
too much dry air to form any storms, or any that last for more
than a short time. Elsewhere, the dryslot will hold sway and breezy
to windy conditions will be the rule. As far as critical fire wx
conditions go, a mosaic of vegetative green-up exists across the
area and with the recent moisture no Red Flag or other fire
weather watch statements were issued with this fcst package. See
more details on this in fire wx discussion below.

The dryline will again slosh back west tonight, but the dry slot
will push through the remainder of the state on Sun aftn.
Therefore, that day continues to look dry with breezy to windy
conditions with only a very slim chance of an isolated storm,
possibly strong to severe, and even more restricted to very near
the TX line.

Aftn temps will be pretty close to steady Sunday into midweek,
then they may drop a little more significantly for a day or two
thereafter as a stronger trough enters NM. That feature appears to
be a little farther north than indicated 24 hours ago with some
models also showing it a bit weaker as well. That bodes well for
the dastardly dry grip Ma Nature has on the fcst area, but we will
see if that holds as we get closer in time to that scenario.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weather models continue to paint a similar picture through next
week. Therefore, did not make any significant changes from the
previous grid package. Continued with the thought of adding 3 to 4
mph to our "first guess" extended model solution due to the pattern.
Also lowered dewpoint thus RH readings compared to baseline model
guidance across western and central areas. The proximity and
strength of the mid level dry intrusion is the reason why despite
active growing conditions or evapo transpiration. The dry intrusion
is expected to intensify during the next several days and this has
been in the model solutions the past 4 to 5 days. Did adjust
dewpoints a bit higher across the far east in association with the
surface dryline but that was just for a 48 hr period.

The upcoming period is very typical for a springtime multi-day
strong wind and low humidity period. Fuel conditions is the main
wildcard in terms of severity of the situation. There is a mosaic of
conditions across the landscape with current soil moistures being
adequate to lower fire danger. As the week progresses, drying of the
top soil will reduce the heat sink that moist soils can provide. As
ground temperatures warm and skies turn more sunny, green-up will
invigorate and help adjust the live versus dead fuel ratio in favor
of lessening severity. Therefore, as it stands right now, will hold
off on issuing any watches or warnings. Will be looking closely at
the Tues-Wed period. Eastern zones may need a watch in the coming
days. Haines 5 to 6 values, near to above normal temps and above
normal mixing heights look to coincide with strong wind and low RH
in this area. The lack of watches or warnings doesn`t mean fires
wont ignite or spread, they will just be a little easier to
control in most landscape situations versus an ultra dry fuel
scenario.

Due to the upcoming weather pattern and the semi-permanent positions
of the Pacific low across the western US...high temps should
generally be near to below normal most areas. This will be more
evident as the next few days progress. Eastern areas should see
above normal temperatures by a few degrees the next several days so
this is the focus area for more critical conditions. At the same
time...the surface dryline will be found across the far eastern
plains the next couple of days as it sloshes back and forth due to
atmospheric mixing. Later today appears to be the best chance for
localized wetting-dryline storms. SE areas appear to be the best bet
for this action. Otherwise...still watching northern areas later
next week in terms of precipitation potential. Models havent been
very excited about an organized wetting precipitation event and this
has been a consistent message or theme for next week. But...like we
have seen the past several weeks...the Pacific trough could dig a
little further south so will be watching for that trend in the
coming days. Hard to say right now but suspect some precipitation
will be in the cards for the far north later next week.

Ventilation still looks to be pretty good during the next 7 days.
Still expect inversion formation each overnight but nothing in the
forecast suggest a long lived...stable environment. In fact,
afternoon mixing heights are expected to increase during the coming
days and will be above to well above normal by midweek.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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