Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 111758 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1058 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Like yesterday low clouds are stubbornly gripping the lower Pecos
River Valley around ROW today. Cirrus blowing off the Sacramento
Mountains continues to shield them from the sun slowing their
retreat. However, the base of an upper level trough will cross from
the west this afternoon shifting surface winds out of the west
southwest by late afternoon and advecting drier air into the valley.
The upper trough will send a back door cold front southward through
the eastern plains tonight, and these will usher areas of low clouds
with IFR and MVFR conditions to northeast and east central areas.
Conditions should improve toward mid morning Sunday.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...248 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A canopy of high cirrus clouds is moving over New Mexico early this
morning while a deck of low stratus clouds and patchy fog lingers
over the east central to southeastern plains of the state. Later
today these low clouds and fog will attempt to erode away, and a cold
front will push toward the northeastern corner of the state. This
front will invade eastern and central New Mexico tonight, setting
temperatures back just below normal in the plains going into Sunday.
Some low clouds and areas of drizzle or light sprinkles will be
possible in the southeastern plains Sunday and Sunday night, but
elsewhere dry conditions are forecast. Temperatures are expected to
rebound on Monday and Tuesday before the next cold front arrives.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
While the weather pattern might seem rather repetitive and locked up
in zonal flow aloft, there are still going to be challenges that are
posed to the forecast over the next several days. The upper level
features will include a symmetric dome of high pressure over the
west coast of Mexico with periodic short wave perturbations in the
westerly flow north of NM and repetitive cold fronts arriving from
the northeast.

Today`s challenges could mimic some of yesterday`s in the form of
low clouds and fog. Most model forecast guidance is quick to burn
this off in east central to southeastern NM by afternoon, allowing
temperatures to reach the 70s, but some alarming skepticism exists
given that Roswell never fully scoured out the low stratus yesterday
and grossly underperformed on high temperatures. Have steered
forecast highs in the southeastern zones slightly below guidance, but
the potential to miss big is clear and present. Outside of these
east central to southeastern plains, cirrus will be the primary sky
obscuration with a surface low over northeastern NM slowly giving way
to a cold front into the far northeastern zones.

The front will plunge south and west tonight, with wind speeds
staying light to moderate along and behind most of the boundary.
There could be a brief gusty east canyon breeze early Sunday morning
in some central valley zones, but this should be fairly brief. Other
concerns going into Sunday will be low clouds developing behind the
front, mostly in the southeastern zones where some sprinkles/drizzle
could be observed. Temperatures will fall back a few degrees below
normal in the plains while central to western NM hovers just above
average Sunday afternoon.

Low clouds/fog/drizzle could linger in the southeastern NM zones
through Monday morning, but should erode into the afternoon with
temperatures rising area-wide. The warming trend will be most noticed
in the plains on Tuesday, but all zones should exceed normal by 8 to
17 degrees then with light to moderate west breezes prevailing.

A short wave trough aloft crossing the northern Rockies into the
northern Great Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday will drive down
the next cold front into eastern NM. This front will hardly have
enough punch to drop temperatures back to normal on Wednesday, and by
Thursday the breezy to windy westerly flow will carry highs back
above average. Another transient trough will cross the central
Rockies and could force a few northern NM mountain showers. And yet
another front will arrive early Friday, but again this feature should
pass as a dry wind shift that will only offer a few degrees of
cooling.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
South to southeast flow across the eastern plains continues to
maintain high moisture levels, with another round of low clouds and
fog this morning. While high level moisture will stream cirrus over
the state, drier mid-level westerlies will mix to the surface this
afternoon bringing breezy to windy conditions across the central
highlands where a couple of hours of isold critical fire conditions
are possible. If high cirrus keeps temps a bit cooler, this
will help keep this area just above critical fire conditions. Winds
20-25kts with gusts up to 30kts will likely reach areas including
Clines Corners and Las Vegas. Southerly flow will keep moisture
relatively high over southeast NM.

A backdoor front will swing through the eastern plains early Sunday
bringing only a weak to modest gap wind through the central mtn
chain a few hours after sunrise. The front will push through the
continental divide by the end of Sunday, lowering temperatures,
replenishing sfc moisture, and reducing MixHgts and ventilation
rates as it progresses. Highs will fall several degrees below normal
Sunday across the east. Overnight lows will remain well above
normal, with another round of low clouds and fog likely across the
east Monday morning.

Temperatures go on a roller coast yo-yo ride across eastern
NM through next week, warming with sfc return flow and weak ridging
Mon and Tue. Temps and ventilation rates fall once again Wed with
the next backdoor front across eastern NM, with both rising again
Thu. An approaching Pacific trough will actually keep temps fairly
stable Thu across western NM. Models are in much better agreement
from 24hrs ago with the timing of this trough, with the both the GFS
and ECMWF more aligned on a Thu to early Fri arrival. This system
will be the best chance for any wetting precip across the northern
mtns, but the majority of the moisture and dynamics associated with
this system have consistently looked to stay N of New Mexico.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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