Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 121730
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1030 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A weak surface trough in the eastern plains today in combination with
strong northwest winds aloft in western and central NM will produce
gusty northwest winds through early this evening across portions of
western and central NM. Wind gusts will generally be between 20 and
25 knots, but at KLVS and areas east of the north central mountains
wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots are expected. Winds will diminish early
this evening and remain at or below 10 knots through midday
Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail today through Saturday.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry northwest flow will be the rule for the next several days across
the Land of Enchantment. All areas will see temperatures 5 to 10
degrees above normal today, but a back door front this evening will
cool temperatures across the plains back below normal for Saturday.
A stronger back door front will arrive on Monday, cooling
temperatures well below normal. Thereafter, there`s hope for some
precipitation at the end of next week, though windy conditions may
return too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Warmer day expected as west to northwest breezes return. Surface lee
side trough will deepen as a weak shortwave crosses Colorado this
afternoon. Winds around Clines Corners should touch advisory criteria
today, but given the limited areal coverage, will not issue an
advisory attm. The wave will send an associated back door front down
the plains this aftn/evening, which should cool high temperatures
across the plains around 5 to 15 degrees for Saturday. Above normal
temps will persist across the west.

Northwest flow will persist into early next week. Next back door cold
front will arrive Monday and will be much stronger than tonights.
Arctic air will spill into much of the upper Midwest and Great Plains
Sunday night and Monday, and the eastern NM plains will just be on
the fringes of it, but temps will cool considerably. The front will
quickly surge through eastern NM Monday and push westward through the
gaps of the central mountain chain Monday evening. Low clouds are
expected to fill in across eastern NM and upslope flow may yield some
light snow showers across the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Below normal temps are expected across the plains Monday
and Tuesday, before rebounding on Wednesday. GFS takes a storm system
eastward across CO on Wed/Wed night, while the EC has flip-flopped
back to taking the system over northern NM. Even if this occurred,
the system is moving so fast, it wouldn`t bring much in the way of
precipitation. However, models continue to indicate a trough moving
across northern NM on Fri/Sat. Here`s hoping it brings more precip
than wind, but that may not be the case.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather forecast through most of next week. There may be a little
light snow Monday night along the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains, and some hope of precipitation next Friday.

Dry northwest flow to dominate through much of the next seven days.
A weak short wave trough will drop southeast in that flow today and
drag a back door cold front into the northeast today, with the front
pushing south and west tonight. Despite the front moving into the
northeast, it will be warmer there, and elsewhere today with above
normal high temperatures. Winds will remain rather strong over the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and central highlands. Critical fire
weather conditions could be approached for an hour or two this
afternoon in a few spots in the northeast and east central plains.
Minimum relative humidities will be the lacking ingredient, dropping
to only the upper teens. Vent rates will be mostly good to excellent
except an area of poor rates near the TX border of the east central
plains.

The front will continue south and west tonight, and may seep into
the Rio Grande Valley toward daybreak. If it does, it will not be
much of an east wind. RH recoveries will be good to excellent.

A ridge of high pressure will build to our west Saturday, bringing
rising heights aloft across NM while a lee side trough develops over
the northeast and east central plains. Normally this would mean a
warmup for the east, but thanks to the back door front later today
and tonight, Saturday will be cooler across all of the east, with
the least cooling in the northeast. Ventilation will take a hit with
widespread poor rates over the west and central areas, fair to good
in much of the east.

We will get the warmup in the east Sunday with a dry northwest flow
and lots of sunshine. Highs will return to above normal everywhere.
This will not be a good day for ventilation, with widespread poor
rates, with only very spotty fair values near the TX border.

Another short wave trough and back door cold front will impact
primarily eastern NM Sunday night and Monday. This will be a
stronger back door front will significant cooling in much of the
east Monday. Low clouds will likely develop as well Monday and
Monday night in the east, with a little light snow possible along
the east slopes of the Sangre`s and the northeast higher terrain.
Meanwhile little change in temperatures is forecast in the west.
Ventilation will be poor in the west and north, fair to good
elsewhere.

A weak ridge of high pressure will cross NM Tuesday. Light winds
will prevent temperatures from climbing above normal except in the
northwest. Widespread poor ventilation with low mixing heights of
around 2000 to 3500 feet are forecast.

Another short wave trough will pass to our north Wednesday with a
weak ridge of high pressure on Thursday. Temperatures will rise both
days and be above normal everywhere Thursday. A storm system
arriving on the west coast next Friday will bring some hope for
precipitation to at least northern NM later next Friday into the
following weekend.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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