Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 190016 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
616 PM MDT TUE OCT 18 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions to be the rule through the fcst period. Surface
north to ne winds will increase significantly from north to south
across the eastern plains between 12z and 19z behind a back door
cold front passage. Gusts may reach 25 to 35 kts. Nw winds will
likely reach similar speeds across the nw quarter to third of the
state Wed aftn. Otherwise no significant weather-related aviation
hazards expected through this fcst period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MDT TUE OCT 18 2016...
While not as strong as yesterday, the jet stream continues to
stretch across the central Rockies, and another disturbance aloft
will push into Colorado this evening. Any precipitation will
consequently stay north of New Mexico. After a round of mild
temperatures tonight, another cold front will spill southward into
New Mexico on Wednesday, and temperatures will finally fall within
a few degrees of the seasonal averages for mid October. Winds will
become gusty along the cold front, especially in the eastern
plains of New Mexico and also in the San Juan basin in
northwestern parts of the state. Thursday`s high temperatures will
run a few degrees cooler than Wednesday`s, but will still be close
to average. A warming trend is expected to finish up the week as a
dome of high pressure moves over the Land of Enchantment.
As the jet stream traverses the central CONUS, another
perturbation will propagate eastward into CO this evening. Winds
aloft will strengthen as the gradient tightens, but certainly not
to the extent of 24 hours ago. Temperatures overnight should
remain mild, but a cold front will accompany the short wave trough
aloft, ultimately setting temperatures back closer to average
Wednesday. No sufficient moisture will be present for any
precipitation within NM during this frontal passage, leaving the
most significant changes to sensible weather in winds and
temperatures. Winds will turn breezy to windy in both the
northwest corner and the eastern plains of NM Wednesday as the
surface gradient sharpens in response to the frontal passage.
On Wednesday night the plains segment of the front could back into
the central valleys of NM, leading to some enhanced gusts as they
accelerate through gaps/canyons within the central mountain chain.
For many NM locales, this looks to be one of the colder nights of
the fall season thus far, and tonight`s midnight shift will
likely have to consider a Freeze watch for the Santa Fe area for
the late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning time frame.
Other northwestern and northeastern low terrain zones could freeze
as well, but many of these areas have already had a brief taste of
freezing temperatures earlier this month.
Surface winds will veer and relax in speed Thursday with
temperatures falling a few degrees more. Daytime highs will run
just below average in the eastern plains and near to just slightly
above normal in the western zones Thursday afternoon. At this
point the winds aloft would be northwesterly and substantially
lighter over NM as high pressure aloft swells over the eastern
This upper level ridge shifts east over NM on Friday, inducing a
settled, but warmer pattern over the state. High temperatures will
exceed normal on Friday by about 3 to 10 degrees, and by Saturday
the departures will grow to 5 to 15 degrees above normal.
The ridge axis will shift to the Gulf Coast states into Sunday
with temperatures plateauing and high clouds filtering into NM
from the west southwest. Upstream, the next west coast system
will become more apparent by Monday. Currently, forecast models
have some disparities between them, both with the timing and
strength of this large scale perturbation. Some modest moisture
could clip the northwestern part of NM Monday night through
Tuesday, but prospects for precipitation are quite low.
Surface winds in the east will continue veering southward as the
weak back door cold front washes out toward the evening period along
the central mountain chain. Otherwise, look for dry and breezy
condtions to continue the next several days. Temperatures will cool
north and east Wednesday as another back door cold front pushes
south but will rebound back to above normal readings Friday into the
early half of the next week.
Drier air will continue filtering into the state over the next
several days as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over
the SW Region shifting eastward. Min RH values for most locations
will remain below 20 percent; with values in the low teens favoring
the northwest third Wednesday and Thursday then portions of the east
central and northeast plains Friday into the weekend. Overnight
relative humidity recoveries will be good to fair tonight through
Sunday, with anticipated improvement by Monday. Vent rates will be
poor area wide for the next several days with slight improvements
for portions of the east central plains on Friday and Saturday
before becoming spotty Sunday and Monday.
Our next weather change could occur Monday going into mid week as
models indicate a strengthening upper level trough over the region
brought on by a potent Pacific low over the NW U.S.